$1 Million is Too Low for Bitcoin

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today we're going to cover the obvious milestone which is Bitcoin reaching 70,000, what this means, and why some of the Bitcoin miners aren't moving. So without further ado, let's get started. But before everything, obviously, I would be remiss not to mention Ramadan Kareem, Ramadan Mubarak. I hope it's a month of blessings and forgiveness for all of us, inshallah. Now, this is an image that was generated by AI, so you may have noticed something odd about this image, and that odd thing is the fact that there is two moons, so it's definitely Ramadan in this image. That being said, I do want to comment very briefly on something that I see which is kind of disappointing. Muslims until now have not agreed on a way to assess whether there is a moon sighting, and different countries are fasting at different times, different states even sometimes are fasting at different times. I heard some people went to Tarawih in a certain place in the United States and they were turned away and they were told no, Ramadan is the next day, it's tomorrow. I really think that we are missing the point here. It's much more important for all of us to be unified in the time that we start Ramadan, Muslims globally. I think it's more important that we're unified in starting Ramadan than it is being accurate, like being a day off is less important than being divided. Being divided is what we need to make sure that we avoid. Being a day off is not going to kill the purpose of Ramadan, it's not going to affect the blessings that occur during it, it's not going to impact Allah's generosity with his forgiveness. But being divided, not being unified, and when we start fasting, that's a much bigger deal and I just feel like people are missing the point here. So that's my point about that. Ramadan Mubarak to everyone attending. So Bitcoin breached the 70k with strength today and we're now in full price discovery mode. This is uncharted territory. Who knows what the future brings, especially the near-term future. It's going to be very volatile. I do want to point your attention to a pretty interesting stat, which is that whenever Bitcoin reaches its all-time highs and breaks it, typically it doubles in not too long a period after. So if you look at March 2013 after 18 days, November 2013 after 10 days, March 2017 after 84 days, it actually nearly doubled in a couple of weeks in 2017, but then it pulled back and then December of 2020 in 18 days. So if history is any guide, doubling as crazy as it may seem may not be too far into the future. This is especially true if you remember that we now have Bitcoin ETFs, which I think are responsible for us breaking the historical pattern of the all-time highs not being broken until after the halving for the first time ever. The all-time high was broken way before the actual halving. And so with the Bitcoin ETFs adding fuel to the fire, I think doubling is even more of a possibility and in fact a probability at this point. People make price predictions way too complicated. And a lot of people are wondering, is it too late to get into Bitcoin? Is there still enough appreciation left here? Is there still enough meat left on the bone? Well, if you agree that Bitcoin is a better form of gold, it's digital gold, it's a better form of gold because you can send it easier, there's less fees, you can send it at whatever quantities you want, the market is open 24-7, 365. There is no aspect of gold in which Bitcoin as a store of value is not superior. If you agree with that premise and then you simply observe the market caps of these two assets, gold having a market cap that's 16 times the current market cap of Bitcoin, you can on your own surmise how much appreciation potential there is still left here. Now, what gets investors caught up is the short-term volatilities. What causes investors to make mistakes is the short-term volatility that an asset can experience, especially an asset like Bitcoin, and they lose sight of the bigger picture. So if you maintain your sight on the bigger picture and you have a long investment horizon, then there definitely is a lot of meat left on this bone. Now, it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows in the Bitcoin sphere. So miners got hit hard today. CleanSpark got hit the hardest. And I think a big part of this is due to shorting. There's a lot of shorting going on for these Bitcoin miners. There's a lot of ambiguity with regards to what happens to these miners after the halving. Their rewards are going to be cut in half. They're going to be mining half as many Bitcoins as they are mining today. Will they make it? Are they going to have enough cash to make it? And this becomes especially, this worry becomes especially pronounced if you look at the total hash rate. The hash rate is increasing all the time. It's now close to twice as high as it was a year ago. And when we're talking about hash rate for the Bitcoin network, this means basically the security of the network, the strength of the network. But for Bitcoin miners, this means the difficulty of mining the next block in the Bitcoin blockchain. And so the higher the total hash rate, the more expensive it is to mine the next block. However, if you look at the Bitcoin miner revenue, it's actually reaching all time highs and it's increasing all the time. Whether it's fees or actual Bitcoin being mined, these numbers are increasing all the time for miners and the revenue is increasing. And not only that, but when you look at the Bitcoin power law, it suggests a lot more upside. I mean, we're just getting started here with the Bitcoin cycle. Typically, you know, you have 12 to 18 months after the halving of appreciation for Bitcoin. And if you're wondering what the number here on the Bitcoin power law, the number at the top of the red area, which is often where the Bitcoin appreciation tends to stop or peak, that number is close to 300,000. So again, we've broken the 70,000 barrier, but I think that there's an argument to be made that there's a lot more left here. If you look at the profitability of the individual miners, so if you look at the ASIC miners, which are these miners that are meant to mine cryptocurrency that are used in Bitcoin mining, you can see based on the model that the miner has, the Bitcoin miner has, based on the model, you can see what is the breakeven price for Bitcoin for each model miner. So at the top, you'll see the generations of different miners. So starting from the left, where you have the oldest miners, all the way to the right, where you have the newest generation miners, you can see that if your company has S21s, and let's say their electricity rate is 8 cents a kilowatt hour, then you're talking about a breakeven price for Bitcoin of 41,000. This is post-having, mind you. If they have S19 XPs, then that breakeven for the same electricity price is 50,000. So you can see that for the models on the right, these miners will likely make it and they'll probably thrive. For the Bitcoin miners that have the models that are on the left, they're definitely going to have a lot of difficulty post-having. So it's not too much of a mystery which miners are going to do well and which aren't. You just need to look at what they are using to mine their efficiency, and you can see whether Bitcoin is above or below that price. Now, Cathie Wood is known for her often very bullish price targets. She's famously had a one million dollar price target for Bitcoin in 2030. And as all good analysts do, when the price goes up, their target goes up. And so Cathie Wood now sees one million by 2030 as way too conservative. She thinks it's going to happen much sooner than that. So while Cathie Wood may be wrong about many things, she was right about many things as well, including her Tesla price target, which came in much more bullish at the time than many of her peers. But it ended up materializing. And I think on this particular issue, there's merit to saying that Bitcoin can reach one million sooner than 2030. If you think about it, perhaps you saw the interview with Michael Saylor on CNBC. If you think about Bitcoin as a digital property and you're reminded of the 100 trillion almost, you know, if you look at different assets, 100 trillion in potential for potential assets that could be moved to Bitcoin and the current market cap of Bitcoin being over one trillion, just under one and a half trillion now, you can see that there's, you know, 10 to 15 X's is not really that outlandish. Now, obviously, you should always put the possibility of a black swan event. For example, you know, there could be some technical issue that happens. I understand that many Bitcoin maxis think that basically their technology is completely immune given the decentralization and redundancy that there is. However, I think that you should always, you know, set aside some probability for something going wrong for some black swan event. And so I've gotten a lot of questions recently about, oh, hey, should I put all my retirement into, you know, Bitcoin ETF? And I would never advise putting all your eggs in one basket, especially as it relates to retirement. I mean, it may turn out very well for you, but with retirement and the stakes being that high, you don't want to, you know, reach close to retirement. And, you know, maybe something goes wrong and you have all those eggs in that, all your eggs in that one basket. And now you don't have time to recover. So it's something to keep in mind. Yes, I'm very bullish. I don't think if you have a longer time horizon that you've missed the boat on Bitcoin just yet. I think there's still some room for appreciation here. That's substantial. However, I would also caution against euphoric behavior wherein you're taking on a bit too much risk. So with that being said, quickly, I'll go to the comments. Ramadan Mubarak to everyone. Thank you so much for everyone who said Ramadan Mubarak. I really appreciate it. Assalamu alaikum, brother. I just watched your Bitcoin video. I just need to know whether if Bitcoin mining is halal, can you make a separate video or something? Well, I can tell you my view of it is I'm comfortable with it. I'm comfortable with Bitcoin mining. And in fact, we have Bitcoin miners in our PIF portfolios, which you can follow by becoming a member. We'd love to have you in our family. All right. Thank you all. Inshallah, you have a blessed Ramadan and I will see you next time. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.