Is this the start of a bullrun?

As-salamu alaykum. So today was a very interesting day in the market, as many days are, which is why I find following the market and investing so appealing. Roaring Kitty, the account that was responsible for the GameStop saga in 2021, tweeted today for the first time in three years and sent GameStop and a bunch of other risk assets soaring. So many are wondering, is this the start of another bull run? So let's take a look and see whether or not it is. Without further ado, let's get started. Not financial advice, be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. So as mentioned, Roaring Kitty tweeted out this image earlier today, basically just a gamer who is leaning in, getting more serious about his game, and that was all it took basically for GameStop to moon. At one point it was up more than 100% since falling back. And not only GameStop, which saw its volume increase to around 5 billion today, but if you put it in perspective, if you were to compare it to the peak of the 2021 mania, we're well off the peak in terms of trading volume. So whereas it was close to 30 billion at its peak in 2021, where we were only at 5 billion today. So still a lot to go. AMC also saw a significant move upwards with volume that paled in comparison to the peak in 2021 as well. So whereas the peak in 2021 was close to $40 billion in volume, the peak nowadays, or today I should say, was around $2 billion. So much more muted movement in terms of volume. That being said, I think it's important to emphasize the following for those who are wondering, is this something that I should play or not? The first rule in is the first objective in investing is preservation of capital. What we're seeing here, I think, is a version of financial nihilism where people kind of think they're too far behind, nothing they do is going to get them to where they need to be. And so they go for these moonshots, hoping that this is going to save them financially. This is going to level the playing field for them. It's going to cause them to catch up. Well, I would really caution against this. As much as I like seeing short traders burned as much as the next guy, and I have yet to encounter a short trader that had good character, to be honest. All of the short traders that I know tend to be people that I would not want to do business with. And just the idea of short trading, betting against a company, betting that a company is going to do bad, hoping that it does bad, is something that, I don't know, it's not a feeling that I would encourage people to chase. It certainly doesn't bring people together, which I think business can be a way for people to come together. Short trading has the opposite ethos to that. And aside from, I think, it being haram, considering you're borrowing something, you're paying interest on what you borrow and selling it, selling this thing that you don't own, you're selling it and hoping that you can buy it back later for a price that's less than what you sold it for. And no other asset are you allowed to borrow it and then sell the borrowed item. No other type of trade are you allowed to do that. For some reason, the financial regulators have decided that this was an okay thing for market participants to engage in. By the way, for many years, short trading was prohibited by law. It was actually illegal to do. And I think for good reason. And typically when there is a financial crisis, they prohibit short trading. So if you go back to 2008, when we had the banking crisis, there were certain banking stocks that it was made illegal to short sell those stocks. So needless to say, I have very little sympathy for short sellers. But I have even more sympathy for people who are just trying to do well for themselves and try and make it for themselves financially and invest in a way that is prosperous for them. And for those people, for what it's worth, my two cents, I would say these types of mass manias are very dangerous. And they're going to leave a lot of people out of a lot of money. So I would not engage in these types of things. If you are feeling financial, a hint of sort of financial nihilism, nothing you can do is going to cause you to catch up to where you need to be. My advice would be to remember the story of the tortoise and the hare, wherein the slow and steady competitor ends up beating the one that moves fast and sprints and then stalls for a long period of time. So yeah, just my two cents here. Don't get caught up in the mania, although it is quite entertaining to watch. Now, in other news, the 13-F filing date is approaching. The deadline is actually Wednesday. And this is the date when hedge funds have to disclose, hedge funds that manage, or actually asset managers, I should say, that manage at least 100 million in assets have to disclose their major holdings. And so there has been a trickle of news with regards to different hedge funds, different asset managers, and how much of the new Bitcoin ETFs they are holding. And so what has come out from the past few days is the fact that hedge funds, pension funds, banks, they're all reporting exposure to Bitcoin. So I think that what we might see is a lot of asset managers who don't yet have exposure to Bitcoin thinking to themselves, hey, all these other funds have exposure. Maybe I should grab some exposure to it as well. So these professional managers, mind you, are not immune to FOMO. So I think it's very possible that we see substantial FOMO from other asset managers who are looking at their peers and saying, hey, they have exposure to Bitcoin. Might be a good idea if I add it to my portfolio as well. After all, I don't want to be the one manager who has let their clients down by not adding this asset to our portfolio. Bracebridge Capital came out as the largest holder of IBIT ETF. According to one analyst, they kind of went wild on Bitcoin in general, basically buying up a number of different Bitcoin ETFs. And again, I think that a lot of other asset managers, even sovereign states, are going to be looking at this and saying, hey, maybe we should increase our exposure. A lot of other respectable names in the industry are doing it. It might cost me my job if I miss out on this asset class. That being said, I think the only thing that matters with regards to whether or not this is the start of a bull run or not, the only thing that matters is the monetary policy and the level of restrictiveness that we have to experience in the near future. So in 2021, recall interest rates were at historic lows. And that's, I think, what allowed for a bull run to actually happen. In this, I think, restrictive environment, I think it will be quite difficult for a similar bull run to happen. Unless, of course, we have some optimism with regards to the interest rate situation. So as it stands right now, even if you go out to July, so in June, no one is really expecting any sort of cut. But if you go out to July, the 75 percent, there's a 75 percent probability price into the markets right now that there won't be a rate cut. So if we can get a cooler than expected inflation print, maybe this Wednesday, if we can get something like that, then I think we'll be off and running really in terms of risk assets and a bull run in those assets. However, without that, if we get a hotter than expected inflation print, then all bets are off. Roaring kitty or not, as much as it is fun to watch, I don't think that this bull run will sustain without a more optimistic view for the future of inflation and the future of interest rates by extension. So with that being said, to follow our portfolios, move for move, see what we're investing in, how we're moving our money around these very interesting times, then do become a PIF member and join our community of Halal Conscious Investors. With that, we'll take some questions. Salam Shaheer. I'm not really sure in that part of the world Ammar is asking about brokerages in Iraq. I think maybe Interactive Brokers is available there, but I would check price prediction for Bitcoin at the end of this bull run. Well, if you were to ask me 12 months from now, I think definitely we're, I think there's a, it's more likely than not that we're above 100,000 by the end of this year, probably above 150 in 12 months time. Again, a lot here depends on the interest rate picture, but I do think that inflation will come down in the second half of 2024. And when you add to that the fact that the US is in an election year, which is typically associated with a federal stimulus leading up to the elections, I think, you know, there's reason to be bullish at this point. How do you feel about Robinhood as a brokerage? I think they're fine. Something that I should mention, I actually use them. So full disclosure, I use Robinhood as a brokerage. But full disclosure, I don't really trust many of these brokerages. You saw today the many halts that happened in GameStop's stock. I think there's a lot of shenanigans going on behind the scenes. I'm pretty certain that if the move was in the opposite direction, there wouldn't have been all of these halts. So they really, I think, you know, there's a lot going on, I would say, behind the scenes. So the tables are tilted. They're not even for everyone. And so that's why, that's another reason why, you know, besides the prohibition in Islam, but that's another reason why I would never do something like derivatives. I would never sort of dabble in them. Because I think that the things are set against the individual investor. And oftentimes, these brokerages will do things to wipe out leveraged positions in order to maximize their profits. So I would be very suspicious. Lending my trust, giving away my trust to any brokerage be extremely defensive. And I think, you know, long positions funded with, you know, cash are the safest way to go. And they're, and they, you know, protect you from being or provide as the most protection from being suckered by one of these brokerages. NVIDIA is reporting next week. Any thoughts? Well, we have a different play on the chip market that we've added recently to our dividend portfolio. I stayed away from NVIDIA because of their quite large investments in Israel. So even though they were on our list, on our watch list for quite some time, they actually held them for a while, but ended up taking them off and revised their rating to uncomfortable because of their association with Israel. So I hope you found this live entertaining and useful and informational. And if you did do leave a like, I'd really appreciate that. Subscribe for more content like this. Become a PIF member if you aren't already. Until next time, take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.