The Only Metric That Matters is Bullish

Salaam Alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Yeah, I clicked the wrong button. So, but yeah, there we are. Here's the presentation. Today, I'm going to tell you something extremely valuable, which is what is the most important macro indicator that you should be keeping an eye on. This is what's going to everything, basically everything else that's being talked about is noise. And this is the only signal. If you are not the day trader and you have a 12 to 24 month time horizon on your investments, this is what you need to be focused on in terms of when you buy and when you sell. This is the only thing that matters. And so this is extremely valuable information and leave a like if you appreciate these lives. And let's keep the street going. We're getting 100 likes every live. Let's continue to do that. I really appreciate everyone who is leaving a like. Not financial advice. Be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. All right. So we all know about the Bitcoin cycles, right? The coin cycles last four years. They are dictated by habings and basically they go through distinct stages of accumulation, growth, bubble, and then you have the crash. And investors are always trying to time their entering and exiting the market based on these patterns. Well, these cycles have been traced to having events. So the having events happen every four years. Cycles are four years long and having having events are when the reward for each additional mind Bitcoin block falls in half or went from 50 to 25 to 12.5 to 6.25. And the idea is that, well, if supply is going down by half and demand stays the same or increases, the price has nowhere to go but up. However, I actually think that at this point in Bitcoin's evolution, the having events are pretty much a non event. I mean, if you look at micro strategy, for example, recently they purchased 12,000 Bitcoins, having events, the amount of Bitcoin, a new Bitcoin mind is having less and less of an impact on overall supply and demand. I mean, basically the inflation rate of Bitcoin might as well be zero at this point. It's very, very small. And also, we see something peculiar when we look at other assets, especially technology assets, for example, Amazon. So you can see the green bar here is a Bitcoin peak. The red bar is a Bitcoin trough. And the actually line on this graph is Amazon stock price. And you can see that peaks in Amazon and troughs correspond pretty nicely with peaks and troughs in Bitcoin's price, as is indicated by these by these vertical bars on the graph. Also, when you look at Google, Google stock, that is, it exhibits the same behavior. So the peaks and troughs in Google's stock correspond quite nicely with peaks and troughs in the price of Bitcoin. Again, the peak in our local peak in the price of Bitcoin is indicated by the green vertical bars. The troughs are indicated by the red vertical bars. So there's a correspondence there. When Bitcoin is at its high, the price of alphabet stock is near its high. When it's near its low, the price of alphabet stock is near its low. So what is going on here? The same is the case with NASDAQ. So NASDAQ levels. When NASDAQ is at its peak, Bitcoin is at its peak. When it's at its trough, coin is at its trough. So what is going on here? Are NASDAQ and Amazon and Google and other tech stocks moving based on bitcoins having cycles? The answer, obviously, is no. There's no direct impact or association between bitcoins having cycles and these other technology stocks. So why are they seemingly moving in tandem? Well, the reason is because these peaks and troughs are not about the having at all. They are about liquidity levels, global liquidity levels and changes in those global liquidity levels. So here you can see the price of Bitcoin in yellow. And you can see the rate of change in the liquidity levels, global liquidity levels in blue. And so when the rate of change is accelerating upwards, the price of Bitcoin is moving upwards. And when the rate is slowing down, the rate of change is slowing down, the price of Bitcoin falls, and when it's negative, obviously, it falls as well. So only when the rate of change in the levels of global liquidity is accelerating upwards, do we see upward movement in the price of Bitcoin? And that's pretty consistent historically. And it just so happens that since 2008, the global liquidity cycles have been four years long and they've corresponded quite nicely with bitcoins having. So if we look at the liquidity levels versus Bitcoin, for example, we can see the global liquidity levels versus the price of Bitcoin, we can see that there is a very tight correlation between them. So the total liquidity index here is in a white, the Bitcoin price is in blue, and you can see that they're very tightly correlated. Same is to with NASDAQ, the total liquidity index is in white, the NASDAQ levels are in blue, and there's a very strong correlation between them. And really, this makes a lot of sense. If I had a cup of water in my hand, and I told you, okay, if I drop something that floats in it, what is the level of that thing that floats in the glass of water? In the cup, what is the level of the water? And I'll tell you how high that thing will be floating. And the same is true with risk assets and global liquidity, liquidity is like that water. If you want to predict how high the object is going to be floating, the NASDAQ price, bitcoins, price, technology, stock prices, you need to know how much liquidity there is in the system. And whether or not that liquidity is set to increase or decrease. If you know the water level is going up, you know that that floating object is going to go up in its level as well. And so the question becomes for investors, if you're interested in macro impact on your asset, the question is always, what will global liquidity levels be doing in the future? That's really the only question you need to answer. What is the future, what are the future prospects for liquidity levels? And generally speaking, the level of water, the level of liquidity in the system is going to be going up in perpetuity until something breaks. And that is because the entire system globally is based on debt and interest. And if you look at the United States, for example, there's obviously a lot of debt that's being accumulated on our balance sheet. And that requires servicing payments and it is accruing interest. And so it needs to be refinanced with lower interest rates. And that's what the Federal Reserve does every few years. It refinances the debt that it has with lower and lower interest rates. Otherwise, interest payments will just get out of control and become unaffordable. It has to print more money and it has to print that money at lower and lower interest rates. And that's why you see globally interest rates over time are coming down. On average, the interest rates globally are coming down. And that's because more and more debt needs servicing and that servicing requires refinancing with lower interest rates in order for countries to afford their interest payments. And so the US, for example, will have a $1.6 trillion interest obligation in 2024. If no interest rate cuts happen, whereas that obligation would be $1.2 trillion in December 2024 with a 150 basis point or 1.5 percentage point cut in interest rates. So we know that the interest rate cut is coming. It has to come because the solvency of the country depends on it. We know it's coming whether it comes in September or December. These are these are details and when evaluated in the context of the overall picture. But we know it's coming and with interest rate cuts, there's obviously an increase in the liquidity levels. There's more liquidity that's going to enter the system because that liquidity becomes cheaper. So again, the only metric to watch from a macro perspective is global liquidity levels. We know that global liquidity levels are set to rise from where they are right now. And the global liquidity levels are following a cycle, a four year cycle since 2008. So you can see in red on this chart, the global liquidity levels and how they go to peaks and troughs and pretty much are in a rather predictable cycle. Right now, we're closer to the trough than we are to the expected peak. And if we follow the same four year pattern, our peak in liquidity should come towards the end of 2025. And so this is the main reason why when I comment in my lives, I'm not really concerned about, you know, day to day headlines. If you talk to your dovish, that's a complete non event to me. Now what matters is the levels of liquidity and my projection for what those levels of liquidity will be. That's what's going to determine the macro environment for assets. Now, individual assets, obviously you have fundamentals that will determine their relatively speaking relative to other assets, how well they do their individual fundamentals will determine that. But the macro liquidity levels will determine the average rise or fall for all assets. And so that's why this is important and why it's very important to keep the bigger picture in mind when you're trying to sift through the day to day headlines and noise that you hear. A lot of people are wondering, Oh, is the bull run over? Is it not over? Well, when you understand what I said in this live, you should be able to make a very clear determination about what the answer to that question is. I hope you found this live beneficial. Again, do leave a like. Let's keep the, let's keep the streak going with lives with 100 likes on each one. And maybe we can, you know, get more ambitious and bump up our target, but let's get this live to 100 helps the channel helps other people see the live. And if you haven't become a PI of member yet, do become a member to follow my trades move for move. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself and peace be upon you all.