A New Rising Star

Assalaamu alaikum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Tuesday, July 2nd, and Tesla is at $230. Is that $62,000? And today we're going to talk about a lot of charts, especially as they relate to Bitcoin. I'm going to tell you about a Bitcoin miner that has caught my attention as of late. And perhaps there may be some merit into putting some dollars behind it. So stay tuned to that. To the end of the video on Shala, I will mention which Bitcoin miner I am thinking about adding. And let's say if you can guess which one it is. If you have an idea, then put that in the chat. Without further ado, let's get started. Now financial advice, do your own due diligence. And hey, guys, we last video. We were just short of 100 likes. So if you haven't liked the yesterday's live, then please do like it so that we can keep the streak alive in Shala and like this video as well. Thank you. All right, so news of the day as it relates to especially our investments. Tesla's stock jumped as I mentioned today to$230. On report that it actually beat its delivery deliveries in the previous quarter, by the widest margin since Q4 of 2021. So it beat its expectations or beat delivery expectations by the widest margin since Q4 of 2021. As we mentioned yesterday, the numbers coming out from Chinese EVs were quite encouraging and Tesla stock did actually rise yesterday as well in anticipation, I think. And because of the optimism that those Chinese delivery numbers generated for the EV industry in general. And I think overall, people were a bit too bearish on EVs. I mean, I don't think there was much distinction between a slowing rate of growth and negative growth. I think a lot of people heard a slowing rate of growth and understood it to be negative growth when in fact growth was still happening. The EV story was still very much alive and well. It was just operating off of a larger base and growth rates with time. They tend to go down. That's pretty natural. That doesn't mean that the story has ended or that we were wrong about EVs. It just means that there's a larger base and growing when you're 100 is a lot tougher than growing when you're starting with a base of one. But people are waking up to that fact. The EV story is very much intact and it will be for many years to come, I believe. And Tesla is the leader, I think, in the space followed by BYD. As I mentioned, our portfolio benefited immensely. We've been waiting on Tesla to wake up from its long hibernation for the last three years. And it has and our money weighted rate of return on our growth portfolio, which is our largest portfolio. Our money weighted rate of return has now reached 140%, which is great. Congratulations to all PIF members who stuck it out with us during these times. A lot of times, especially 2022, we're not easy, but we made it. Crypto market cap right now is at 2.3 trillion, which is the same level it was at one year ago, basically this one week ago rather. So pretty stable right now. The stable coin market cap is pretty steady at 150 billion. So I think there's a wait and see the attitude amongst crypto investors. I think there's a general understanding that crypto will recover, but the issue is about timing. So you have a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to feel like the time is right to get back in. Market sentiment confirms this, so market sentiment is basically neutral. It's stopped its decline, which is sort of good, depending on how you want to think about it. If you were still buying, then perhaps you wanted additional decline. The top altcoins for the last week, well, Solana got an additional piece of good news with now two firms applying for a sole ETF. And this is a big deal for Solana, perhaps a bigger deal than it was for Ethereum and their ETF goes live in July. It's a bigger deal than the ETFs in Bitcoin on a relative basis, and that's because Solana is a much smaller asset than Ethereum and Bitcoin. So an ETF, I believe, will bring about a much larger change in price, much larger appreciation than it has had than the impact that it has had on Ethereum and Bitcoin. Good more halal alpha by becoming a PIF member, Mr. Klutch, which is a great name, says paid for the annual membership, and I've already made it back in one week. Thank you, PIF community. Well worth the investment to be here. Thank you, Mr. Klutch, glad to have you as part of our community. The Bitcoin ETF flows have stopped their bleeding after going through many days of now bleeding uncharacteristically, I must add, since their inception in January. We really haven't had a stretch like what we had recently that reflected itself on the price of Bitcoin, but it does seem like things are turning around as it relates to the flows in Bitcoin ETFs. Now turning solidly in the positive territory. Now, some people are scared that the realized price for Bitcoin is 30,000, and I've heard some commenters on YouTube saying that that's where we're going. We're going to 30,000. I have to disagree with this. I think that this is the wrong thing to look at. I think instead of looking at the realized price, the price that basically people bought at, I think historically speaking, looking at the MVR VZ square, which takes the market value and it compares it to the realized value. So we're using the realized price, but we're just taking the market value and we are comparing it to the realized value. And we're seeing how much is this ratio between market value and realized value deviating from its average historical level. And so when the deviation is large, this has typically corresponded with local tops for Bitcoin. So if you go back to the last bull cycle, we topped out at a Z score of around seven. Before that, the Z scores were higher. So perhaps this time around, we top out at a Z score that is lower, but not where we are right now. I don't think, you know, with a Z score of close to two, that this is anywhere near the top. I think maybe, you know, when we reach a MVR VZ square of four or five, you should probably think about taking whatever profits. At least this is what I will do, not financial advice. But here, I think it's too early. And as we mentioned in previous lives, the liquidity cycle is really what you need to keep an eye on. And as we mentioned yesterday, the liquidity in all major economies with exception to Japan is interest rates are expected to fall in the remaining months of 2024. And that will raise the level of liquidity. And so that's really, I think the major determinant here. RSI for Bitcoin is in a neutral territory. And you can see if you compare, you know, historically, the zigs and zags of these RSI in this bull cycle are not unlike what we experienced before. In fact, they're quite typical. So looking at this, it does seem like we are essentially following the same script, albeit with a, I think, less acute magnitude in terms of R moves up and down. Coin mining difficulty experience somewhat of a drop, so less than 10% of a drop. And that's good news for Bitcoin miners that have to go through this difficulty in order to mine Bitcoin. And this is something that they definitely need considering the, we just went through a having and the reward for mining has fallen in half. So they're still getting used to that. And the coin mining difficulty falling is obviously welcome news for them. That being said, it hasn't fallen that much. And the Bitcoin miner revenue is the lowest it has been, at least it was in June. It's the lowest it has been since September. So a lot of Bitcoin miners may, you know, cease operations or get acquired by more efficient miners if this continues for too long. So be very careful with regards to which Bitcoin miners you do end up buying because some of them may not make it. Speaking of Bitcoin miners, Irish energy really didn't care about the price of Bitcoin or the revenue of Bitcoin miners or the coin mining difficulty. It is, it has been on a tear and today was no exception, up 15%. The emphasis here, I think from investors is on miners who have a toe dipped into the high performance computing business, Irish energy was early in identifying this opportunity for it as a company. And I would say the rising star here, which I'd like to share with you guys is BitDeer. BitDeer seems to be making a lot of the right moves. Perhaps it is the next Irish energy. Who knows? BitDeer are yesterday secured a 30 year lease in Ohio, expanding its Bitcoin mining power capacity to over 2.6 gigawatts. Now, something unique about BitDeer is they're actually working on their own proprietary coin mining rig. And so they're very vertically integrated. And this is going to make a big difference in terms of profitability for Bitcoin miners because as we get deeper into the bull cycle, what happens is that these Bitcoin miners and their producers of them start to the rigs, that is the producers of the rigs, start to price the rigs more, more expensively. And this eats away at the profits of the Bitcoin miners. Now, if you are a Bitcoin miner and you're producing your own rigs, then you don't have to worry about that. You keep that profit to yourself. So this is an interesting wrinkle in BitDeer's operations. And they're also very attuned to the high performance computing opportunity. And I think that's one of the reasons why it has been on the run. It has been. So still looking into this one, but it's definitely on my radar. I think it's an intriguing opportunity. I'll leave it at that. Obviously, we'll have more when there is more to say. To follow our portfolios, move from move to rate for trade. Do become a PIF member, join our family. It was very nice to see today. I asked on our Discord what the average price was for Tesla shares in our members' portfolios. And it seems like everyone's in profit. And I think in Charlotte, there's a lot more profit to come. So they join our family, if you haven't already. Now, going to questions. How do you feel about investing in Tesla when they will be producing humanoid robots? Humanned robots are impermissible according to many fed to us. What are your thoughts on this? I haven't heard that. Humanned robots are just robots that look like humans and can do many human functions. So it seems unconvincing to me. And I'm actually invested in them largely because of their humanoid robots. But I'm not going to rush to judgment. I'm open to hear whatever reasoning you have. Mr. Ed mentioned Cypher. I'm going with Cypher. Well, Mr. Ed, I think Cypher is actually one of the best, but it wasn't Cypher. Hey, Salaam Abdullah. Nice to see you, Salaam Abdullah says. I just want to say Salaam. No questions. I appreciate that. Can we hope for Tesla to dip back to 180? I don't know. You can hope for anything. But my advice would be if you're convinced with the Tesla opportunity to dollar cost average. Aloha la may dip to 180. But I do think that there's a lot of momentum behind it right now. Earnings are coming up. I think there is with increased volume. There is improved gross margins operating margins because there's a lot of fixed costs. So once you break even, everything above your break even, the fixed costs. There's obviously variable costs here as well. But above the fixed costs, that goes straight to your bottom line. So we're at look, I think investors are anticipating better operating margins. So you have that catalyst with the earnings coming up, which I think will be strong. And then you have the August 8th event with robot axes. And so there's a lot of momentum here. So we'll see. But Aloha la, of course, energy storage deployment up 132%. Yeah, Hannibal, a great point. Energy storage is sort of less analyzed, less looked at part of Tesla's business. And it is the most profitable segment or line of business for Tesla. If you look at its gross margins and it's growing like you've never seen before. And I think that it has the potential to be bigger than its automotive business. And guess what? Autonomous driving has an opportunity to be bigger than energy and their automotive business and humanoid robots have an opportunity to be bigger than all of those perhaps combined. All right. Thanks, Rashad. Says we trust you to dig up a great company. Let's go a bit dear. Thanks. I appreciate that. All right. Abdullah, change his mind. I have a question. Is it too late to buy Tesla now? Well, I'll tell you guys. I'll tell you guys actually what our buy price is for Tesla right now. Now, again, we update our buy prices. I usually don't do this. This for PIF numbers, but I mentioned PIF membership too many times. So I just wanted to tell you guys what our buy price is right now in case you're not a member. Buy price is $226. So anything below $226 is what PIF members have been buying that. We typically update our buy prices when the company reports earnings or there's a material event. So for now, that will be our buy price. Obviously that buy price will change when Tesla reports earnings. Virtual Chaos says, Sam, what do you think of Arcadium Lithium and when do you think Lithium will come through fruition? Well, good question. I'm not, I guess I haven't done a deep dive on this particular company. However, what I will say is that I think Lithium is going to recover. I mean, we're seeing a recovering EVs. EVs need batteries. Batteries use Lithium. There should be a recovery in demand for Lithium and prices. And by the way, to mine Lithium, procure it, get it to a state where you can use it in the manufacturing of batteries. There's a lot of permits, a lot of CapEx that's needed, years of work that's needed. It's not something you can spin up really quickly. So when demand rises, supply doesn't really rise instantly with their rise in demand. So I think you're going to have a situation where demand rises, supply can't keep up and the price rises. And at which point, I think you're going to see a lot of these Lithium companies do really well when that's going to happen. But we are seeing good signs, right? With the pickup and the EV deliveries and globally really. And the expectation of rate cuts, which should make buying cars easier for more affordable for a lot of people. So that should pick up demand as well. Isn't PLL a small cap company that you intend to start? Yeah, it is a small cap company actually. And I don't think about it as a small cap company because it actually has operations that are anything but small cap and the permits that it's secured. So, yeah, it's currently valued as a small cap. But I think I'll stay in our growth portfolio just because that's where I added it first and then we'll create a small cap portfolio of new companies. And maybe actually the intention is those new small caps grow out of their small cap status and in which case we may elevate their status to some other portfolio. So we'll see if we hold on to them. We may sell them. All right, guys. Do leave a like. Hope you found this beneficial. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu Alaikum and peace be upon you all.