As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is August 5th, Monday, and I have been out, as you probably noticed, for the last week. I was on a vacation. And just let me know in the comments, did anything happen while I was gone? No, actually, I think I should apologize to everyone. It does seem like I was the only thing keeping the markets together. I leave for a week and everything falls apart. But I'm back now. And inshallah, this means the worst is behind us, inshallah. So let's, I actually came back from travel today. And but I wanted to, not too long ago, but I wanted to go live because I understand that many of you may be worried. And, you know, although I've expressed, I think my opinion rather clearly to PIF members, perhaps there is a portion of the public that is wondering what I think. And to the extent that I can provide some sense of, you know, security and calm people's nerves, then I would like to do so. So without further ado, let's get started inshallah. As always, not financial advice, so be sure to do your own due diligence. So it was a tough day. Needless to say, you didn't need me to tell you that and Dow tumbled 1000 points today. S&P 500 posted the worst day since the 2022 decline. And the sell-off has been global, not just limited to US equities. And it's been basically all-encompassing in terms of the different sectors that have been impacted. Everything basically was down across the board and often in double digits. So why, why did we see this? I'm sure you've heard of the Japanese carry trade. Japanese, previously investors had access to yen at around 0% interest rates. And there was a surprise hike in interest rate by the Japanese monetary policymakers. And that caused panic to the tune of, I've heard some estimates of, you know, $4 trillion involved in this carry trade, wherein people or investors would borrow at near 0% interest rate and invest that money that they borrowed in stocks and crypto. So there's $4 trillion in stocks and crypto and other, you know, treasuries that were yielding greater than, you know, what the, what it costs to borrow yen. And so now that the interest rate for the Japanese yen has gone up, a lot of these investors are in a position where they have to pay back the debt that they took out or they're just looking at the prospects for their trade and making the assessment that this is a good time to close this trade, especially with the prospect of additional hikes from Japanese monetary policymakers and additional appreciation that that will bring for the Japanese yen, which will make paying back their debts that much harder. So that has caused a lot of selling pressure. Now it's important to mention here that the selling pressure of today will be, inshallah, buying pressure of tomorrow. And the reason I say that is because it's highly unlikely in my assessment that investors will be tempted to keep a lot of their money in cash for an extended period of time. So this money, I mean, money is sort of like energy. It can't be destroyed. The purchasing power of this money can be destroyed. But once you've printed the dollar, that dollar is out there. It's sloshing around from hand to hand. And right now what we're seeing is, yes, there is selling of stocks and crypto and other assets in order to pay back the yen that was borrowed. But eventually that money that is paid back has to go somewhere. And I think that that somewhere is going to be real assets. So as I always mentioned, it's much easier to be an investor if you understand the global liquidity cycle. We'll talk about that towards the end of this live. We also had the job number surprise, which came out last week, gave the investors a pretty, I mean, elevated the risk in investors' minds that, OK, we are approaching a recession. Now, the counterpoint to this is that the earnings that have been coming in and we're still in earnings season have been quite good. And in fact, the number of companies that are reporting earnings above expectations, so above what they forecasted, is actually above average. I think we're at 78 percent of reported companies beating expectations. The average is 76, 77 percent. So yeah, the job number is off a bit. It's kind of surprised, kind of implying a recession. But there are other indicators that are implying that actually the economy in the U.S. isn't that bad. And I would actually sort of put a greater probability on that second, on the latter, on the latter possibility, which is that the economy in the U.S. is not that bad. If we do get a recession, it will be a mild recession. It's not going to be something that is deep and very long. And there's also geopolitical stress. You have the question of Iran and Israel and whether there's going to be a war between Iran and Israel. Is there going to be a war between Israel and Hezbollah and Lebanon? So this is also adding to the stresses that investors have to think about what's going to happen with China, seeing tensions there build. There doesn't seem to be end in sight with regards to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. All that being said, I actually my assessment is that probably the scale of any conflict in the Middle East is going to be quite limited. I don't think it's going to have that big of an impact on global trade. Russia and Ukraine are like two boxers that are kind of exhausted at this point. I think at some point they're going to come to the realization that a clear-cut victory is not in the cards for either side unless we have a black swan event that tilts the scales. But without that, without like a coup in Russia or something like that, it doesn't seem like any side is going to be able to resolve the conflict decisively in their favor. So they'll probably end up talking things out. And with regards to the USA and China, there are still extremely strong interdependence between these two countries that reduces the possibility of a direct or indirect conflict between the two, indirect through Taiwan, that is. So I remain an optimist here with regards to the impact of geopolitical factors on the market. And I also think there is an element of growth anxiety. We've been on quite a run in a lot of these names. I mean, you look at Nvidia, for example, look at the Magnificent Seven, they've all been up substantially. And I think there is some anxiety around that. And I think a lot of investors are thinking there's got to be a pullback coming, there's got to be a pullback coming, and they're looking for any sign to jump on. So the confluence of all of these factors, I think, ended us up where we are. And yet, I don't really see these factors as necessarily what investors should be focused on. Maybe in the near term, if you're a swing trader, if you're an options trader, this is something that you need to understand and trade around. But for us, where we have at least six to 18 months time horizons on our investments, and we're holding stocks, we don't really need to panic. We're holding the assets and we're not forced to sell. I mean, the people who get themselves in trouble are people who not only try to pick the winners and losers, but they also try to time when the winners and losers are going to manifest the price predictions that they have for them. That's what gets people in trouble and wipes out their gains and in a way that they can't recover from. But for us, if we own a stock and it loses 20, 30% of its value, we have not lost anything because we still own the stock. And if the business is doing well, the business is growing, eventually the stock price will recover. But if you have an option, you have a call option on something and it expires on Friday, you don't have that luxury. So really, I think for the halal conscious investor, you should have even added a reason not to join in the panic that has gripped the market. You can see, and I bring this up just to tell you that we've seen this before and the result was that. So if you look at the VIX, for example, it's spiked today in a way that we haven't seen since March, April, 2020. And if you recall March, April, 2020, we saw this really substantial dip in the S&P. I think we lost like around 20, 25% in the S&P in a matter of days. And then it was really the definition of a V-shaped recovery. We bounced back up to previous highs and then we crushed previous highs and we kept running for another six to 12 months after that. So we've been here before. I think there's opportunity for VIX to spike even higher than what we saw today. Historically speaking, I have mentioned this before, historically speaking, it's been a much better time to buy to be long when the VIX is up. When VIX is, by the way, the volatility index for the market, it's used as a proxy for the level of nervousness in the market or the level of risk. So buying when the VIX is spiking is much more profitable than buying when the VIX is very low. So make of that what you will. I think, again, we could get another leg up here for the VIX, but I think that that rule is going to hold nonetheless, even if there's more downside from here. And I do think actually that probably the worst is behind us unless there's another event that happens. But if you have a 6, 12, 18 months time horizon, then I think you'll be happy to be buying at these levels. Now, one thing that I think may play out this time around, and perhaps we don't have a V-shaped recovery and perhaps we're just sort of range bound in our trading for August and September, is the history of the market during an election year. So historically, what we've seen is a lot of choppiness in August, September, October, up to November. We saw that in 2016. We saw that in 2020. And maybe we have that same situation this time around. So maybe there's two or three months here of choppiness and range bound trading. But again, if you go back, we've typically had a pretty strong surge in the markets following the elections. And I think this time around will not be different. And the reason I say this is the metric that I always try to emphasize here. And this is the number one metric that's going to determine the level of real assets, regardless of what they are. And that is global liquidity. The amount of liquidity in the system sloshing around, that's what's going to determine the price of assets. And global liquidity right now is at an all time high, and it is set to continue to increase. In fact, people were upset about the Fed because they didn't cut last week. And so if you look at the probabilities now, we're no longer talking about whether or not the Fed cuts in their September meeting. We're talking about whether they cut 50 basis points or 25 basis points, something that we weren't talking about until recently. And in fact, the market right now thinks that there's an 80% chance that a 50 basis point cut is coming in September. So that will bode well for liquidity levels. And if you look historically, and I want to point this out, because it helps illustrate the opportunity. If you look at the global liquidity, and that's in the turquoise color, and you look at the price of Bitcoin, you can see that up until recently, there's been a very close correlation between the price of Bitcoin and global liquidity levels, they go up together, they go down together, there is a lag, it's not perfect correlation, but there is a correlation nonetheless. And recently, you see these two things completely divorced from one another, one is going straight up, one is going straight down. And so I think that this correlation will return. And we're going to see, you know, Bitcoin catch up with the liquidity cycle in terms of price. And we're going to see, I think, probably a really sharp recovery in the price of Bitcoin and the price of risk on assets, it may take some patience to get there. But this time is really, in my opinion, the recovery time that is, this is an opportunity. And this may be your last one, before we go or resume, inshallah, into the bull market in earnest, inshallah. If you'd like to follow our portfolios, follow when we buy and when we sell, then do become a PIF member if you're not one already. So with that being said, let me go back to the comments. And I have to say, I really missed you guys. So I'm glad to see you guys back. And I'm really blessed to have the community that we have. So I'm really glad to see you guys back here. So Chocolate Wallace says, Salam Alaikum. Alaikum Salam. Nice to see you. Thanks, Rania. I appreciate that. Where did you go for vacation? So it was actually, I went to the wedding of a relative. And yeah, went to Toronto, actually. But I have to say, I mean, Canada, I mean, Canada has its problems. I went to Toronto now, this is not, I don't know what it's like in other places. But it did seem like, like the news was all like, crimes happening. And then LGBTQ, like those are the just two, like constant, you know, news stories, whenever you open the TV was like either the crimes that are happening, and concurrently, like, parades of like, the alphabet people. So it's like, it was kind of, I don't know, it was kind of weird. So anyways, I know we have a big Canadian community. So I don't know, chime in here. Did I get the right impression or the wrong one about Canada? Master Blenda says, Salam Alaikum. Alaikum Salam, brother. Glad to see you back. Thanks. Nice to see you, Dr. Showa. We're gonna miss you. Have fun on your vacation. Yeah, it's a good, good thing not to look at the market while while on vacation. Just enjoy your time with your family. And inshallah, everything will work out. H says Iran after the ninth, China, absolutely nothing. We'll see. I have a large position. I think WSHR ETF from before I became a PIF member. I'm sitting at 12% profit. This ETF has around nine or 10% exposure to Japan. Would you recommend a stop loss order? No, I wouldn't. Unless you have unless you like, need the money, I wouldn't stop losses typically, you know, have the function of just locking in your losses, as opposed to preventing additional ones. So if you if you have a longer term time horizon, then there's no reason to use stop losses almost ever. Because, you know, if you liked position, if you like the ETF at 10, you should like it more at five. If you, if you say, oh, I want to, unless you need the money, as I mentioned, like, okay, I have an expense coming up. And going back to the 10 and the five, I have an expense coming up, and it's going to cost me eight. I have 10 in my account, let me put the stop loss at eight. That makes sense to me. Okay, you need the money, you can't lose more than eight, you need the money in the near term, use a stop loss. But if you have a longer term time horizon, then if you're at 10, and you go to five, then just buy more at five, if you still like it. And the fact that the price went down shouldn't cause you not to like it. So hopefully, that is useful. So now says so that I don't go below 70% profit, because I would really like to free up this cash for DCA into PIF picks or potentially a Canadian energy monthly income play like WCP. Yeah, so if you like them more, then if you like these other positions more than I would, I would move. I wouldn't necessarily wait going crazy myself feeling feeling dodo right now. Or maybe that's doodoo. But this is, you know, I know this might sound not sympathetic, but I do sympathize. But this is good that you feel this way. Because feeling this way and going through the emotions is going to help you mature as an investor, it's going to give you a lot of it's going to make you sort of jaded almost to the moves of the market. And this helps you avoid making rash decisions and decisions that you know, newbies in the market constantly make. So going through this is actually a really healthy maturation process for you as an investor, I want you to think like that. And I also want you to think of this as an opportunity, because this is how I see it. Now, if we were at the tail end of the liquidity cycle, I would say, okay, this is something that I mean, we should have been out of the market before this happened. But at this point, I mean, given where we are in the liquidity cycle, the fact that liquidity is on track to be to increase globally, not just in the US, this volatility that we're experiencing right now is an opportunity, I think. So there's nothing really to feel bad about. I hope hopefully that helps. Is it okay for someone to like go crazy since ETH went down 25% in one day? Yeah, I've never been a, well, actually, that's not true. But I haven't been a fan of ETH for a long time. But ETH is not alone in the drop that I saw. I don't know how it compares necessarily. It does seem like it went down more than others. Bitcoin is back up to 56,000 as I'm talking to you guys right now. So I just think Solana is more attracted than ETH. I just don't see any reason why someone would buy ETH over Solana. Solana is getting way more usage. Its usage is growing, money is moving towards it, apps are being built on it. What is Ethereum good for? And it already had its ETF moment and the bump from that, which, as I correctly predicted, turned out to be a nothing burger. So I just don't get why ETH still has the market cap that it has. Solana should have a larger market cap. If we're looking at the utility, the revenue potential for these smart contract platforms, I think Solana has it for right now. That could change. But man, I just don't see it with ETH. And I always ask people that try to argue with me about ETH. Have you used it? Have you ever used ETH? Have you paid the fees that they're requiring to use it to do something simple? And knowing the fees are what they are, how can you even justify the existence of this project, this technology? It's completely without any use or usefulness. Thank you for that information. It's my pleasure. Since unemployment is going up, I assume we can expect interest rate cuts soon. Yeah, I absolutely think that that's sort of a done deal at this point, obviously. But I think it's hard to see something that would cause the Fed not to cut the next time they have an opportunity to do so. How many more months do you think bull market will exist? So I'm predicting right now towards the end of 2025, beginning of 2026 even. But I also think that with artificial intelligence, there are going to be so many opportunities here. So if I had to give an analogy, I think we're in like 1995, 1996 with like the internet companies. We're in that period now with the AI companies. So you had between 1995, 1996 and 2000, you had this massive bull run. I think we're in store for three, four, five years of a pretty strong bull run that is pushed by artificial intelligence. There's going to be a lot of names out there. Now, maybe we reach the same euphoria that we reached with the dot-com bubble and we started getting crazy valuations. And inshallah, we have the right sense to see that and not partake in it. And maybe we have the same fate, but there's going to be a lot of really great companies that come out from AI. There's going to be Amazons, there's going to be Apples and Facebooks and a lot of really amazing generational companies that come out from AI. And so I'm really excited about this upcoming period for investing. Nas says, I'm from Toronto area. Yeah, it's messed up here. Okay. So it wasn't just me in Vancouver. Wish there was a Canadian version of this brother. Oh, okay. Well, I mean, we do have a really strong Canadian presence in our PIF community. So if you're not part of the PIF community, I would encourage you to do that. Salaam brother, I'm just driving from Toronto as we speak, had some great Turkish food there. Yeah. They do have some good food spots in Toronto. Yeah. Amr says, Amr says, welcome back. Now markets will recover. Yeah. Inshallah. Inshallah. I'm right. We'll see. Salaam brother. I want to ask if spot trading on Halal currencies is only permissible way of trading. Yeah. So with currencies, you want it to be a spot and there's a Hadith from the Prophet peace be upon him mentions with regards to trading currencies, he mentions, you know, if it's, if the, if the types are different than exchange as you want, but make sure it's hand to hand so that the transaction is immediate. So it can be used as a way to disguise an interest bearing loan. Do you know about any developments in terms of Canadian sole ETF was taking yields? I haven't heard about the sole ETF yet. And to be honest, I'm kind of surprised. I, and as I am surprised about, I guess, Ethereum's continued lead over Solana, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got some progress there soon. It just makes a lot of sense. I think, how much do you think Solana will reach? So I think in this bull market, so personally, I'm going to be looking at the exits around two 50. I know that a lot of people may stick around for a lot more than that. But that's where I'm at right now. So I'll probably look to trim substantially at around two 50, not because I think necessarily has reached its ceiling in terms of appreciation. But I think at, at that level, there's probably going to be other ways to, you know, other projects that perhaps have more upside. And also, you know, with, with these things, they're very, they change quite rapidly, very quickly. And so there's a risk that, you know, technology can come along that, you know, pushes it aside. Unless I see sort of a moat around Solana, that's really compelling. This to me doesn't seem like a set it and forget it type of investment. Do you think meme coins will die? If so, when eventually? Well, to be honest, the only real use case that I found for cryptocurrency right now, that makes sense, aside from gambling and all the other nonsense that happens in the crypto sphere. The only like legitimate use case that I can see is right now, people actually doing is moving value from one point to another. Like if I want to pay someone in Indonesia, if I want to pay someone in Bangladesh, and by the way, congratulations to our Muslim brothers and sisters in Bangladesh. I'm so happy. Whenever I see a Muslim nation, while we're all one nation, but whenever I see a Muslim people realize a greater degree of freedom, and be able to topple dictatorial governments that have been holding them back, as I think the deposed government was in Bangladesh. That makes me extremely happy. And I honestly think that this is the much more this is the tougher battle than battle with external adversaries. Because I think that if you know, Muslims just had their freedom, and just had the ability to express themselves and express their and operate freely. And they were given their rights, they were given a fair chance, I think, you know, the rest is history, as they say, that's all they need. They just need to realize their freedom. And, and then they can defend themselves, they can they can make the world a better place. So congratulations to the people of Bangladesh. I think it's safe to say that the entire Muslim ummah is very proud of you and wishes you the best inshallah. Taskeen says we'll join inshallah. That's great to hear. I would love to have you inshallah. Why PIF is not making use of massive drop opportunities. So, Hamad, I do so you know about the analogy of a falling knife. So Peter Lynch used to say that, you know, when when these types of events would happen, he would wait for a recovery of, you know, 10.