The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Solana: The Good and Bad

August 14, 2024 Rakaan Kayali

► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!

► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance

Solana: The Good and Bad

In this episode we will cover:

  • Introduction and Overview
  • Solana Discussion
  • Personal Thoughts on Solana Investment
  • Solana's Active Users and Transactions Per Second
  • Solana's Performance Compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin
  • Introduction to Concerns with Solana
  • Bitcoin and Global Liquidity Correlation
  • Solana's Valuation Concerns
  • Revenue and Market Cap Analysis
  • Solana's Inflation and Token Supply Issues
  • Long-term Viability of Solana
  • Solana as a Trade, Not an Investment
  • Potential Future of Smart Contracts on Solana
  • General Crypto Market Caution
  • Audience Q&A Session

CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, August 14th, and we're going to talk about Solana and some of the good and the bad about this particular investment, which full disclosure, we hold in the PIF crypto portfolio. I'm gonna tell you my honest thoughts about where it is right now, and then we'll go on into questions as usual. Not financial advice, be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Leave a like if you do enjoy these lives and you're finding them useful, really appreciate that. All right, so for the good for Solana, in terms of monthly active users, I just realized the word Solana is kind of blocked by that logo, but Solana is the right most, and therefore, has the most active users, with close to 19 million monthly active users, far ahead of any other competing blockchain. Also in terms of transactions per second, it is far ahead of, sorry, this is the wrong graph, but it is far ahead Solana is than any other blockchain in terms of transactions per second. But that's not to say that all transactions are equal, the sizes of transactions on Solana, for example, are a lot smaller than the sizes of transactions on Ethereum. Additionally, when you look at the performance of Solana, if you compare against Ethereum, for example, that you'd have a year ago, investing in Solana versus Ethereum, Solana appreciated 300% versus Ethereum. So this is the chart of Solana denominated in Ethereum, you can see Solana has appreciated 300% in the last year. So Solana investors turned out better than Ethereum investors lately. If you look at Solana versus Bitcoin, then in the past year, Solana investors also turned out better. This is a chart of Solana denominated in Bitcoin. So all of this is fine and good, and it is one of the, or this is what Solana investors look at when they are maintaining their bullish perspective on the asset. That being said, there are causes for concern. So before the causes for concern, if you look at Bitcoin and global liquidity here, you can see global liquidity, which is represented in that orange line, dark orange line has spiked up recently. And there hasn't been a similar spike up in the price of Bitcoin. Historically speaking, definitely if you're just eyeballing these two lines, you can see that there is a pretty strong correlation between Bitcoin and global liquidity levels. The reason I mentioned this in a presentation about Solana is that Bitcoin and Solana have been quite correlated. And Solana has exacerbated the moves of or moved more than almost like a levered position has moved more than Bitcoin, whether it's going up and moves more, whether it's going down, it moves more. This has been the recent pattern. So as we expect a jump in the price of Bitcoin, we should be expecting a similar jump in the price of Solana, if history is any guide. That being said, we have to put things into perspective. And I'd like to be the one that does this, you know, in the dot-com bubble, I was too young and, you know, we didn't have the internet, we didn't have, or the internet wasn't as commonplace. And certainly we didn't have these types of live shows that we could do. And therefore, you know, many investors were not, you know, made aware of some of the common sense issues that should have popped onto investors radars at the time. One of these common sense issues that I think is being missed on many crypto investors is the actual valuations here. So if you look at the revenue for Solana, it's at 168 million. If you look at the market cap of Solana, as of today, it is close to 70 billion. So if this was a, if this was, if we're talking about a company that has, you know, revenue of, let's say 200 million. So it's trading at, what is it? 350 times revenue. That's a lot in terms of, in terms of valuation. Now, typically when you try and see what, you know, how people are valuing crypto, they say, you know, if crypto market cap reaches X number, then, you know, this particular crypto maintains this percentage of the total crypto market cap. This is what the price of a token will be. This is a very silly method of trying to value any asset. The value of an asset is based on the cash flows that it produces for its investors. That's just the bottom line. I don't care what you're talking about. You could be talking about farms. You could be talking about businesses. You could be talking about stocks. So public equities. So you can be talking about private equity. You could be talking about anything. The value of a business, a cashflow producing business is based on the amount of expected future cash flows. And right now Solana's revenue is nothing to write home about. And not only that, but it is unprofitable. The expenses of Solana exceed the revenue that it generates. And they make up for this by issuing new tokens. Now let's talk about that for a second. The advertised inflation rate for Solana is supposed to be falling over time. So if you look at, you know, the first year's inflation rate, it was scheduled to be at 8% and then disinflation at 15% per year, meaning that the rate of inflation falls every year to the tune of 15. Should put it at around 5% as of today in terms of inflation rate. The long-term inflation rate is supposed to basically settle at 1.5%. This is the advertised inflation. So if you look at, you know, the Solana official website, this is what it is. Now, if you look at Masari and you look at the actual inflation in terms of circulating supply for Solana tokens, and if you look at the last year, for example, you can see that the inflation rate, the actual inflation rate in terms of token supply was circulating supply was more than 14%. So this is a, so they're basically diluting holders to the tune of 14% per year. And in order to make up or, or in order to keep the business going. So now, you know, this, all of this tells me that this is a trade. It's not an investment. I do think that's, you know, Solana will do well in the near term as the crypto bull run resumes. Solana will do well. And by the way, the, what I'm showing you right now in terms of Solana and, you know, the good and the bad probably applies more so to other cryptos. Solana is actually, you know, excuse my expression, but the shinier turd amongst the crypto turds, but it's still a turd in terms of a business, in terms of cashflow generates in terms of valuation, in terms of inflation, it's still don't, don't get anything confused here. The only rational reason to hold Solana is because it is the best smart contract platform out there right now. And you believe that there is a chance that smart contract platforms will eventually be used in a way that is useful and day-to-day activity. So eventually there will be an app, you know, built on Solana that people use, rely upon, and that will take it to profitability and it will justify the valuation that it has. This is the only logical, rational reason to hold this. I happen to think that there is an off chance that smart contracts become a thing. There is a use case for them and Solana has the best chance at being the smart contract platform that hosts the app that has smart contracts or accommodates smart contracts that are useful to people. However, this has not happened yet. Right now Solana, but other transactions are just arbitrage transactions, meme coin trading, other useless stuff. Again, this is not just an indictment of Solana specifically, but crypto generally. Most of it is just garbage. And so I don't want you guys to be caught up in the hype behind any particular token and make sure that you use your common sense when you're valuing these tokens. Again, I think in the near term, some of these altcoins will do well. That's why we hold them in our PIF crypto portfolio. But if I'm looking, but these are a trade for me. I'm going to be getting out of these positions inshallah, way before the bull run ends. And unless of course, you know, something changes that causes me to change my stance. But right now I just want to put things in perspective for people. This doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. The valuation for these cryptocurrencies doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, even despite the pullback that we're seeing. So focus on what you understand, focus on things that are generating positive cashflow and ignore the hype and don't get sucked by FOMO into assets that you're not convinced with. So if you'd like to follow our PIF portfolios, make sure to become a PIF member if you haven't already. And with that, let's take some questions. Was says, Salamu alaykum, for all the information you provide us, it's my pleasure. Salamu alaykum, should we continue the DCA into PLL or are we expecting days? I can't predict the near term, but I do think PLL will eventually recover. And I think for whether I buy or not, check out the PIF watchlist, it has our buy below, sell above prices. Zohair says, Salamu alaykum, I hope you all are having a good day. Well, thanks Zohair, I always appreciate your nice messages. Amr says, Salamu alaykum, Salamu alaykum. Rashad says, I am an ETH holder, what are the signs that should trigger me to sell it? Yeah, I don't think Ethereum is going to be the fastest horse in the upcoming coin bull market or crypto bull market. So I'm not holding it going in as you know, Rashad. But you know, Ethereum may get some relief when the Ethereum grayscale trust stops dumping. But I don't think, I think there's still more dumping to ahead of that particular trust. If, you know, the Bitcoin trust was anything to go by, you know, if history repeats, then you still have a few more weeks of Ethereum trust dumping, which will affect Ethereum's price. Maybe there gets, there's a relief there. But with Ethereum, I just, you know, this is an inferior smart contract platform when compared to Solana. So I think if a smart contract platform is to win, right now my money quite literally is on Solana, not Ethereum. So make of all of that what you will. I'm never going to tell someone, you know, buy or sell. I'll just tell you how I'm thinking and what I'm doing. Salim says, are you planning to park your profits from altcoins to Bitcoin eventually? Yeah, I think that's the plan. Inshallah. Mohsen says, Salam brother, is it a good time to buy the dips on Hems? Well, check out my buy below and sell above prices on our watch list. Khaled says, Jazakallah khair, wa alyakum Khaled. Any plan to share buy and sell moves with PIF members for crypto? Yeah, of course. All buy and sell for crypto is shared with PIF members. Anytime we make a trade, we share that with PIF members. So you should not worry about that. And if you log into your account and you see like messages from PIF, in case you think you missed a, missed a message, you'll see all the messages that were sent from PIF. So all the trade alerts. And also if you go into Discord and you go to trade confirmations, you can see all of our trades there as well. All right. If you haven't left a like, do leave a like. I'd really appreciate that. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.