The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Wen Moon?

August 17, 2024 Rakaan Kayali

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Wen Moon?
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Introduction & Bitcoin Update
  • Supermicro Computer Stock Analysis
  • Macro Data Overview (PPI, CPI, Retail Sales)
  • Bitcoin Market Outlook & Liquidity Cycles
  • Spot Bitcoin ETF & Price Projections
  • Global Liquidity & Market Impact
  • Historical Market Trends for August
  • Investment Strategy & Timing
  • Q&A Session

CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Friday, August 16th, Jummah Mubarak, and Bitcoin is at 58,100. And I got a short and sweet one for you today, and then I'll let you be on your way. Enjoy your weekend, inshallah. But before you do that, make sure to leave a like. Anything in this live is not financial advice, just the musings of myself. So be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Chakri Walla, Walek, it's nice to see you. Today we had a really great in-depth discussion about Supermicro Computer. We analyzed the stock. This was, I think, the highest return S&P stock at one point to Supermicro Computer this year. So we did a deep dive into that for our elite members. So if you'd like access to elite member content, make sure to become an elite member. Link to do so is in the description. Happy weekend to you as well, Rashad. Nice to see you, and nice seeing you earlier today. Macro data this week, we got a rich amount of macro data this week, and it, PPI, CPI, and retail sales, I think, supported both a rate cut and the notion that the landing of the economy will be somewhat soft if we get a recession. It will be a mild one, not a deep one. So all encouraging data points. Right now the market is pricing in 72% chance for a 25 base point cut, and a 27% chance of a 50 base point cut. Now, when will Bitcoin resume its upward march? Well, in short, whenever monetary liquidity starts resuming its upward march as well. Now, despite the fact that we are on four-year cycles for monetary liquidity, and as we will see in a chart I'm going to show you, we are set or expecting a rise in monetary liquidity fear. The fear and greed index is now approaching fear again, which tells you that the market is inefficient, because right now I think we are consolidating ahead of a pretty juicy run in the markets. I don't know when it's going to happen. I don't know if it's going to happen or resume in the next few weeks or in the next few months, but I know it's coming. And so right now I think it's important for people who were excited about Bitcoin when it was at 70,000 to be more excited when it is in the 50s, because I don't know how long that's going to last for. Now, the spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management have plateaued since March, and that has corresponded quite nicely with a plateau in the price of Bitcoin. So we had a big spike up and then we had a long consolidation, but the longer the consolidation, typically the longer the break, either upwards or downwards, or the more aggressive the break upwards or downwards. And in the case of Bitcoin, if history is any guide, we are on schedule for a break upwards. Speaking of that, if we go to our handy stock to income model, it is giving us a projected price for Bitcoin right about now of $65,000, which is not far off from where we are right now at$58,000. And again, if you follow this model, it tells us that over the next 12 months, we should actually be exceeding $200,000. So a lot of return yet to be had here if this model is any guide. And it does seem, if you compare the price, which is in green here, with what the model suggests the price should be, that it was actually not a bad indicator to follow. Chad, I want to show you the stat that you should keep in mind when you're investing. Every 1% change in global liquidity causes on average a 2% change in the S&P, either up or down. And right now, global liquidity has had a four-year cycle. And right now we're at the point in that cycle where global liquidity is scheduled to rise. And so it's not just Bitcoin that I think has a date with the bull market, but assets in general, public equities specifically, should resume their bull run in earnest. Now, historically speaking, August has been a tough month for stocks. And in fact, the first week of August has been the toughest week for stocks. And that is all behind us, which is good. So we made it through the tough part. And I think the toughest part is now behind us. So my message to you on this fine Friday would be to evolve and simplify our thinking about investing and when is perhaps the most opportune time to be buying aggressively. When you think the money printer is about to turn on, that's when you start buying. You don't want to be the pseudo intellectual who knows just enough to hurt themselves and complicates the task at hand for themselves. Really, in terms of macro, the task at hand for investors is quite simple. And that is to determine where we are in the near future. And I think right now it's clear that liquidity levels are set to rise almost globally. So there's almost no major economy whose central bank has not signaled that there will be easing in liquidity conditions. Now, that's for macro. For micro and for picking out individual assets that will do great. Then you have your PIF membership, which I encourage you to become a member of if you aren't already. Link to do so is in the description. Let's go to questions. Chocolate Wallah says, don't know how I'll save up for my daughter's university here in the U.S. You know, something to consider are universities abroad. Now, I would set aside some money and there are some tax advantaged accounts for if you're in the U.S. and there are tax advantaged accounts in different states that allow you to save for your children's education. So I would check those out. Many of them have some pretty decent options with regards to investing and comfort level from a Halal perspective. Opinion on DCA into Solana? I don't think that's a bad idea. We do hold Solana in our portfolio still, although I think with crypto in general, I mean, look at my video on Solana. I think that Solana has the best chance, but I wouldn't invest too much money in crypto generally, excluding, I think, Bitcoin being, you know, the safest crypto asset. Salaam Alaikum Rakan. Is PIF waiting for the money printer to turn before buying aggressively? Well, without revealing too much of my moves, because that is privy to PIF membership, but yes, I'm sure you've noticed that I've been wading through this bottoming out of the markets and Inshallah, we will start buying again very soon now. Chocolate says, we'll check out what you mentioned. Jazakallah Khair. Walaikum Chocolate. Always good to see you. What do you think about gold and do you realize what percentage of person's wealth in gold? Well, actually for us, we had a pretty healthy discussion about that on Discord today. And I think that, you know, many people are comfortable with gold. The price of gold continues to appreciate, albeit not as much as Bitcoin, which I prefer. But if you're more comfortable with it, you have, you know, you can sleep better knowing that, you know, you hold a physical asset with a pretty reliable historical record of increasing in price, then hold gold. And obviously the percentage of gold would be based on, you know, the risk level that you would like to take. Obviously, gold is considered to be low risk. So if you want to have a low risk portfolio, then you would skew it more towards these risk off assets like gold. However, I will say that if you look at the last 50 years, compared, let's say public equities, S&P versus gold, S&P has outperformed gold by a lot, and it's not even close. So with that, become a member, if you haven't already, leave a like, if you enjoy these lives and until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.