The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Are We Breaking Out Finally?
► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!
► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance
Are We Breaking Out Finally?
In this episode we will cover:
- Introduction & Greeting
- Bitcoin Breakout & Risk Assets Overview
- Market Outlook & September Warning
- Protecting Profits Through Put Options
- Fed Chair Powell's Announcement & Market Reaction
- Cash in Money Markets & Investment Implications
- U.S. Dollar Index & Correlation with Risk Assets
- Bitcoin Breakout: Real or Fakeout?
- Altcoin Rebound & Hyper-Appreciation
- Importance of Liquidity in Markets
- Bull Environment Analysis & S&P 500 Performance
- Protecting Profits with Puts: Upcoming Elite Session
- Q&A Session
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Assalamu alaikum everyone, I hope you're doing well. Jamal Mubarak. Today is Friday, August 23rd. Hope you're doing well. We had a pretty strong breakout today in coin and other risk assets. We actually broke 63,000 as of recording this. So what happened and what is the outlook for risk assets? That's what we'll talk about. And we're going to talk about, because I mentioned second half of September, it may be rocky for us. We're going to mention, we're going to talk about protecting our profits. And I'm going to do that in a class that I give next week for elite members. So if you're interested in protecting profits, specifically through put options, if you're interested in learning more about that, then become an elite member. And if you already are, make sure you attend. Without further ado, let's get started. Not financial advice, be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. And make sure to become a member if you are not already. Premium membership gets you access to our portfolios and trades, move for move, and should pay for itself many times over. And elite members get access to our course. A lot of value there. So as expected today, Fed chair Powell indicated that interest rate cuts were ahead. And as I mentioned on Monday, I told you that he was going to say that it was time to adjust policy. He wasn't going to go into specifics. And that's exactly what he did. So no surprise there. Somehow the market seemed surprised and reacted strongly to it. Now there is a record sum of cash that's sitting in money market funds. Now you can view this in two ways. First, you can view this as a lot of people are nervous. They're keeping their money in cash. So do they know something that I don't know? Is this, is this smart money that's sitting on the sidelines? The other way you can view it is that this money sitting on the sidelines, that's earning interest. But as the prospects for interest rates decline, we expect cuts. And as cuts happen, more and more of this money is going to find it unattractive to stay in money market funds, earning what little interest it will end up earning. And therefore this money may move from the sidelines into risk on assets. So you can view it one of two ways. It does say though, that there's a lot of potential here in terms of added money in asset markets. The U S dollar index has plummeted dramatically today. And the U S dollar index basically measures the price of the U S dollar versus a basket of other currency. And there has been a very reliable inverse relationship between the S and P and risk assets in general and the dollar index. And this makes sense, right? Because if the dollar is less expensive, many foreign investors are able to convert their money into dollars at more favorable rates and buy U S equities with them. And so this makes a lot of sense. And we're seeing this correlation hold today, wherein the S and P is up and the dollar index is down, but we also saw a breakout in Bitcoin. And there's also an inverse correlation between the dollar index and bit for the same reason. And as I mentioned, when I took this screenshot, we were at 62.7. Currently we're at 63.2. So we're, we continue to climb. We finally got a breakout after a lot of waiting. And my, my live yesterday was very aptly timed as well as my buy yesterday. Alhamdulillah, as BIF members know. So is it a breakout or a fake out? We'll see. Although I like our chances, at least as I mentioned, the second half of September and we may have some turbulence, but I like the fundamentals and the setup. I'll talk about that in a second. We can see risk on assets running, at least for now, as I mentioned, don't be too shaken if we see some volatility here, but a lot of rebounding in the alt coin sphere is happening. Basically things are at various degrees of hyper-appreciation. Now the most important chart, something that I like to go back to over and over is the state of liquidity, because that will tell us the state of the markets in general. This is like water levels. And if you're measuring the height of different boats, the most important metric to look at is what is the level of water. And the level of liquidity is going to determine the levels of risk assets, similarly. So we are approaching a period where global liquidity based on the cycles that we've experienced in recent history, global liquidity is set to jump in a very big way. And if you look at, this was a very, I think, written post by Seth Golden. So he mentions that if we look at real GDP growth, greater than 1%, declining inflation, lower bond yields and faster M2 growth, faster money supply, he defines this as a bull environment. Now, if you look at these types of environments, the S&P average annualized quarterly total returns in bull environments has been around, and this is from 1951 to 2024, has been around 24%. The rest of the time it's been around 11%. So more than twice as high. So historically, the bull environment was present in 41 of the 291 quarters. So we're in a quarter that's only happening 41 out of 291 times in terms of these metrics that we're looking at since 1951, that is. And the S&P 500 posted positive quarterly results more than 85% of the time compared to only 68% when the bull environment was not present. And the bull environment, as I mentioned, has a average return that is more than twice the return of other times. So I really like these odds. I think that they are definitely encouraging for investors. It's important though, that we take stock of protecting our profits as they happen. And that's where I think puts can come in handy. And that's why I'll be addressing puts and understanding puts, how to buy them, what's the duration of the puts, values, when to buy them. We'll address those next week, inshallah, in our elite session. If you are not a member, do become a member. Link to do so is in the description. Let's go to comments very quickly. Zohair says, Salamu alaykum, Jamal Mubarak. Walaikum Salam. Rectember, we'll see, but we have some gains inshallah before then. Walaikum Salam, Akhi. The capital gains tax proposed by Kamala affect people who make less than 100k. Let's just hope that Kamala doesn't win. I think that will be quite bad in many areas, but let's hope she doesn't win. I think some of the proposals that she's made are bonkers, not bar factor seven. So let's hope she doesn't win. What's your opinion on Monero? I don't really have an opinion. Not something that I've taken a deep look into. And with that, and also I've been silent about altcoins for a while. This may be a good time to take a second look at them to see if there are any diamonds in the rough. Keep an eye out for that. With that being said, I'm going to let you go. Enjoy your weekend and leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu Alaikum and peace be upon you all.