As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Tuesday, September 17th and we are one day removed from the Fed's interest rate decision and the market is bracing for the impact of that decision. Is it going to be 25 basis points? Is it going to be 50 basis points? How will the market react? What will the Fed Chair's commentary tell the market that perhaps the interest rate cuts on their own may not reveal? These are the questions that the market is waiting for answers to. In the meantime, we started today really strong and we've pulled back if you look at the S&P 500 up slightly 0.04%. The Dow is down 0.04%. The Nasdaq is down 0.04%. We're actually, for the Dow, we are at an all-time high and what's very interesting about this situation is that in terms of fear and greed, we are in neutral territory. So there is still, I think, a lot more upward potential for these markets. So as mentioned, market is trying to figure out whether it's going to be a 25 base point cut or a 50 base point cut. Right now, it's actually assigning a 65% chance of a 50 base point cut and only a 35% chance of a 25 base point cut. I'm going to take the minority opinion here and say that the Fed is more likely to do a 25 base point cut, but we shall see tomorrow. I do think that more important than the interest rate decision is what the Fed says and how it justifies its move, whether it's a 50 base point or 25 base point move. Now, we did get another element to think about today and that relates to what's going on in the Middle East. I'm sure you've heard about the cyber attack that happened in Lebanon and now it appears that an escalation of the conflict in that region of the world is highly likely. Perhaps Israel invades Lebanon. Who knows? That being said, the market sphere and greed index doesn't really seem that spooked about the prospects of an escalation there. We're still in neutral territory going into greed territory, so I think at this point the market has just relegated the conflict between Israel and Lebanon at least to the background. Obviously, the bigger worry as far as the market is concerned relates to the China-Taiwan situation. I think it happens in terms of if China invades Taiwan, it may happen with very little heads up for anyone. If you'll recall, when Russia invaded Ukraine, we knew days, weeks in advance that this was a very likely possibility. The US basically had all the information it needed with regards to Russia's decision to attack Ukraine. There was no secrecy there. Russia completely gave up the element of surprise. That is likely not going to happen with regards to the China-Taiwan situation. I do think if we get past October, it's probably not going to happen in the winter. If it doesn't happen in the next 30 days, it's probably not going to happen this year, but who knows? The VIX index seems somewhat elevated versus the average that we've experienced this year. We did have a spike in August, but that quickly came down. We're currently at 1770. For most of the year, we were hovering in the very low teens and at 10 and 11 basically normally. As I mentioned, the market doesn't seem too spooked about what's going on in the Middle East. Now, going back to the interest rate situation, the Fed rate cuts will not be as deep as market expected as per BlackRock. This is according to a report that they came out with yesterday, the $9 trillion asset management company. BlackRock says that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will not be as deep as the market expects. BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in a note Monday that a resilient economy and inflation remaining sticky may hamper the Fed from making a steep interest rate cut. I have to believe that this is in fact true. We haven't really seen the capitulation in the markets that would normally precede a deep interest rate cut, capitulation in the economy rather, that would precede interest rate cuts. In fact, the economy seems rather resilient and poised for somewhat of a soft landing. This is why I've taken the minority opinion in the market today that a 25 base point cut is actually more likely. Now, adding to the complexity of the macro environment is the fact that we are approaching the worst performing, we're actually in the worst performing two weeks of the year, last two weeks of September. As I mentioned, I thought maybe we front ran this year's dip a bit and perhaps we have a stronger last two weeks of September than many expected. Certainly, it seems like it is playing out this way so far, but we will see. We'll get clearer signal for the markets tomorrow and I will obviously cover that and make sure you guys know everything you need to know for your investments, inshallah. Now, we did get a bit of movement from Bitcoin today after it seemed we're range bound for the longest time. We did get a bit of a breakout today, pulled back. Let's see where we are with coin right now. We're at 61,000. I haven't seen 61,000 in a while, before today that is. So, this was bullish, obviously bullish for our Bitcoin miners, which are doing fantastic. Miners have been, especially our plays, have been buoyed not just by the anticipation for the Bitcoin run, but also for the anticipation regarding the data center opportunity. So, I'm hoping that we get at least 100% return in the medium term on our positions there, inshallah. And why I wanted to show you guys this chart is because it really neatly displays the Bitcoin market cycles and it tells a story here that I think is very interesting. With regards to the Bitcoin market cycles, as per the timing, as it relates to the halving. So, the period immediately after the halving that is in red, and typically you can see in the previous cycles how in that period the red dots are typically headed upwards. But in this cycle, you saw the red dots were very flat. And so, I think what happened was the market front ran this cycle and this was partly supported by the Bitcoin ETFs. And we reached an all-time high before the halving happened, which is very uncharacteristic, hasn't happened before. And so, we ended up with a really flat post-halving period. But I think that we are gearing up for the next leg up. I know it seems like I've been saying that for a long time now, but these things cannot be timed by day or week. But generally, I do believe that we're in that period of consolidation. And hey, the bigger the base, the bigger the break. The more we have consolidation, I think the more violent, in a good way, the price goes up following, Inshallah. If we look at the stock to income model, one of my favorite models to look at with regards to trying to predict where the fair value of Bitcoin should be. If you look at that model, you can see that, let's say, 9.11, it is predicting the fair value for Bitcoin at $73,000. Actual on that day was closer to $57,000. And if you look at, by the end of this month, it's predicting the fair value of Bitcoin to be closer to $80,000. So, I really think that there's a list as per this model. If you look at the model, the projections are in that, I don't know what you're going to call that, off-white color. And the actuals are in the green color, very light green color. And so, the actuals and the projected seem to be quite close, at least historically. So, I do think that the green is going to be hugging the projected line in the future as well. Yes, there will be periods of overvaluation and periods of undervaluation. But generally speaking, this is a pretty good way of determining the ballpark price at any given point. And if you really want to get excited, if you look at the end of month six in 2025, the projected price for Bitcoin is around $300,000. So, even if the model is off a bit, at current price, $60,000, I think you're going to really wish you bought more at this price in a little less than 12 months from now. So, we shall see if this plays out. And with regards to the MVRVZ score, another one of my favorite metrics. If you look at it, so this compares the market value with the realized value, basically tells you how much profits people have potentially to take. And when it's high, then the price is rather brittle, rather susceptible to large drawdowns. Right now, we're close to one, between one and two. Previous cycles, we've topped closer to seven or eight. And so, I think that there is ample room to run here, a lot to be optimistic about. I don't like optimism that is not based on data and based on, I think, solid reasoning. I think we've stuck to that in our optimism. I really think that asset prices are set to go up. There's nothing that tells me that this time around will be an exception. If you look at the liquidity levels globally, if you look at the scarcity that an asset like Bitcoin provides, it just makes a lot of sense for an asset like Bitcoin to go up substantially. We have a lot of exposure to Bitcoin through holding Bitcoin itself, through holding ETFs, Bitcoin ETFs, through holding coin miners. So, we stand, inshallah, to do very well in the event of this much anticipated run, inshallah. By the way, if you'd like to be with us on our journey, do become a PI member, join our community of Halal Conscious members. Our goal is to get a thousand members to one million dollars in profits from investing, inshallah. So, my goal behind this community, inshallah, is to create one billion dollars in value add for its members, join them to become one of them. And the more people we have in our community, the better the community, the more active people are, the better the community, and the more we can help one another out on our journeys. Let's take some questions. So, Rashad says, Salam Arkan, if you are to choose one stock or one crypto ahead of FOMC, what is your pick? It depends on your risk profile. I would say these next couple of weeks are going to be good for Tesla stock because you have two concurrent tailwinds, which are, inshallah, the interest rate cuts, which are anticipated, as well as the event on October 10th. So, I think Tesla will do well in this upcoming period. And to be honest, I don't really think Tesla needs these catalysts to do really well. If you look at Tesla stock over the last five years, if you look at the last quarter, Tesla's revenue reached an all-time high. And for the last, let's call it four years, it hasn't really done much of anything. The stock hasn't. And so, there's a lot to catch up with here. And if you look at previous periods, if you look at, so I've been a longtime holder of Tesla stock. This is not my first rodeo. So, if you look at the period between, let's say, oh, let's call it 2015 to all the way to 2019. Actually, we can go out. So, let's call it, okay, 2015 all the way to May 22nd, 2015 to October 18th, 2019. The stock was up less than 5%. So, four years of just doing a bunch of nothing. And then it took off in a big way. And we went from 17 to at its high, it was 400. So, it did a 20X. And so, the last four years, yeah, hasn't done much of anything. So, I think that something similar may play out where you have four years where the stock isn't doing anything, is up less than 5%. Even though the business is getting bigger, the risk is being taken out from the business, it's becoming a more mature business, it's becoming the prospects, the lines of business are increasing, the prospects are becoming brighter, but the stock price isn't doing anything. I think the same was happening in the last four years, but the market, Wall Street, wasn't really pricing it in because the market or Wall Street analysts don't like to price in things before there's at least one dollar of revenue from them. So, things like the robot taxi, humanoid robots, and even their energy business hasn't really been priced in to the widely accepted models for Tesla's valuation. And so, now we're at a point where a lot of these new businesses are going to start coming online, analysts' valuations, analyst models are going to change, they're going to be updated, and we could see that parabolic move that we saw between 2019 and 2021 again. Maybe it's not a 20X, maybe the next parabolic move is a 5 to a 10X, but that's not bad, especially considering Tesla is our largest position. So, you put me on the spot there, Rashad, but I did answer. I didn't shy away from answering. I gave you, inshallah, a pretty straight answer. Shaykh, please say my name is Rehan. Okay. Wa'alaikumussalam, Rehan. Rehan says, I'm a big fan. Thank you, Rehan. I'm a big fan of yours. Salamedic says, are gaming crypto tokens that have YouTube monetization on and it's their primary source of income halal? I'll tell you, with regards to YouTube monetization, you probably noticed I have monetization turned on for my videos. So, what you can do through monetization is you can choose what type of ads you would like. So, what are the ads that you accept on your videos? And you can do that through the AdSense settings. Now, if you choose not to turn on monetization, YouTube reserves the right to monetize your videos, but your preferences aren't taken into account. So, that's why I turned on monetization and I did it that way. So, my preferences are taken into account. So, if they have YouTube monetization, I don't think that's necessarily not a halal thing. It really depends on what they've determined are their acceptable ads versus not. Delbel says, is swing trading uncomfortable assets for short term? And so, let me stop you there. No. So, with regards to that question, is it permissible? No. I don't try to profit off of uncomfortable assets. And even though in many cases, it's tempting to short uncomfortable assets. For example, by the way, I think Palantir may have ran ahead of its fundamentals a lot. Palantir is perhaps like the most uncomfortable asset public company right now. It occurred to me to short Palantir, but that would be two levels of discomfort. The first is the asset. The second is obviously shorting is not halal. So, yeah, don't do something haram in order to reach a goal that ends don't justify the means, is what I'll say. Can I buy stocks based on Fed cut rates? Is it halal? Yeah, I think that's fine. We live in a world that is impacted by different factors. We don't support all of the factors that we think shouldn't impact the world. But in reality, interest rates impact our world. It's important to be cognizant of how their impact affects our investments. And obviously, adjusting our investments accordingly makes a lot of sense. What is your Bitdeer prediction in the next 12 months? Is this a long term hold? Currently, yes, it is a long term hold. I think that Bitdeer is going to do excellent. We will see. I definitely think there are multiple X's left in this name. I am making an open source contribution in a halal company and Google is giving some stipend. Isn't it halal? I think it's fine. By the way, guys, I don't give fatwas. Are you asking me based on my opinion? Based on my information? Let's try and keep it pleased to stocks and cryptos and what I'm comfortable with versus what I'm not comfortable with. Sometimes I get questions about things that are not necessarily my area of expertise. Don't ask me and think you got a fatwa. You have not gotten a fatwa. If there's some nuance here in your question that is not being revealed, I think that you should probably ask a sheikh or something like that who can look at the details of your question and give you an answer. Recently received airdrop tokens. Free crypto from a gaming company. Game is about buying cats virtually in a game. Is it haram because buying cats in Islam is haram? Again, I'm going to have the same response as the one before. Let's talk about stocks and cryptos, please. Assalamu alaikum. In your opinion, when bull run peak is expected, I think probably Q1, Q2. Actually, Q1 is probably too early. Probably Q2 2025. We'll see. No worries for the questions, brother. And I hope my answers can be useful. I was planning on making an appointment with you and I wanted to know what's the best way to prepare for it. Just know exactly what you want as an outcome for the meeting and I can prepare accordingly. So have a clear idea of exactly the outcome that you are hoping for from the meeting and give me the necessary information that will help me get you to that outcome, inshallah. I just want to make the most out of the time schedule. That's understood. Assalamu alaikum, brothers. Q4 bullish. Yes, I am bullish on Q4. Tesla supports Israel. We should be boycotting it. I don't think so. Certainly open to any evidence you may have regarding Tesla supporting Israel. I hope everyone got something useful out of this live. That is my goal with every live that I do. If you did get something useful, then I would really appreciate if you left. Hit the notification bell so we can be in contact more. This live becomes more fun, more interesting. The more people join, I would love for you to join in my next live. So hit the notification bell when I go live next. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.