As-salamu alaykum everyone. Today we got the 50 base point cut, which many were expected, many expected, I suspected something on the order of a 25 base point cut, but the Fed decided 50 base points was more appropriate. Let's talk about exactly what happened and what this means for the markets. By the way, today is Wednesday, September 18th, and we'll go over how the indexes have reacted to this. A very big piece of news, which I think ushers in a new time for the market and will have very deep implications on asset prices. So without further ado, let's go into exactly what happened. So the Federal Open Market Committee chose to lower its key overnight borrowing rate by half a percentage point or 50 base points amid signs that inflation was moderating and the labor market was weakening. It was the first interest rate cut since the early days of the COVID pandemic. The committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly imbalanced. By the way, one of the reasons why I predicted a 25 base point cut is because I think that we may be saying mission accomplished in our fight against inflation a tad too early here. It may be the case that with the economy not really showing that much slowdown and a 50 base point cut, it may be that the Fed overestimates how much it has inflation under control. And if we get a reading where inflation has crept up, Fed puts itself in a tough position. So this is something that is important to keep an eye out on. Now, I've taken the role of saying, hey, don't panic when things look very bleak, but I don't want people to get too exercised and too optimistic before the data tells us that we should be in that state. I like as an investor to be always even keeled, not too down, not too up at all times. And this is what I encourage you to do as well. Now the federal funds target rate, if you'd like a sort of summary of where we have been and where we are right now and putting that all in context, I feel like I sound like Kamala Harris unburdened by what has been looking to what can be unburdened by what has been whatever the heck that line is. But we have basically been hiking since Feb 2022. We held rates at the same level since October 2023. And now we're getting the first cut. Now, as I mentioned, first 50 base point cut since the pandemic. It's been a while since the market has had to digest something like this. And we can already tell from the early hours after this event that the market really has no idea how to interpret this. Initially, it was up dramatically close to 400 points. And now it has basically retraced all of the gains. Now, I have to say that the Fed did really everything it needed to do in service of the market. And perhaps its decision to cut by 50 base points was somewhat influenced by the fact that it is an election year and markets being up tend to help the incumbent party in their elections. Maybe that was a motivating factor for the Fed to cut as aggressively as it did today. But in the remarks, so I mentioned that it's not just about the Fed's decision today, but it's also about its projections for the future, the dot plot and also the remarks of the Fed chair. And the remarks gave the impression that the Fed did not do this because they see a weakening economy. Rather, they did this because they saw slowing inflation and inflation moving in the right direction, which is exactly what the market wants to hear. It doesn't want to hear that the Fed is concerned about the economy. It wants to hear that the Fed is confident inflation is going down. And this is exactly the message that the Fed communicated today, perhaps very deliberately in order not to instill panic in the markets. Another way of looking at where we have been, what can be unburdened by what has been. Here you can see the 50 basis point cut. You can see the basic stability in and no cuts basically and stability in the interest rate for the last close to a year now. And then the interest rate raises that we experienced since 2022 and the that has had on the markets since then. So we're really entering a different regime in terms of monetary policy again here. Something to keep always in mind is that things can change pretty quickly and we don't want to say mission accomplished with regards to the fight against inflation before before it's appropriate to do. It seemed like the Fed was doing that today. And they had a lot of confidence in the inflation picture. And I just think with a 50 base point cut thinks maybe they heat up a bit more than the Fed anticipates. Additionally, something very important that the Fed mentioned was that they think they will reduce rates another 50 base points by the end of the year. So either we'll have to 25 base point cuts or 150 base point cut. That being said, the Fed has been wrong about its own actions forever. And even if you look at the remarks that they came out with after their July meeting, they said they don't anticipate a 100 base point cut this year. That's exactly what they're doing. That's exactly what they've communicated their intentions are after this meeting. So take whatever the Fed says with a hefty grain of salt. Let's look at some of the reactions that we got in the market. Let's look at our handy map here. Make sure this is refreshed. Apple is up. Microsoft, Nvidia, basically flat. Amazon is flat. Google meta, less than 1% up. Tesla, less than 1% up. So a very undecided market here. Neither moving up in a big way or down in a big way. Still processing what has happened. And I think, as I mentioned, because I've been asking for our PIF community why I've held back on investing for as long as I have. It's really a matter of, and I scaled back. I haven't stopped altogether, but I scaled back the amount of investing that I have been doing as of late. I think Q4 gives me a lot more confidence than the period that we have been in. Perhaps the majority of the volatility is behind us. And as I mentioned, what the Fed said today was absolutely in service of the market. If I'm thinking just from an investor's perspective in the short term, what the Fed did today was as bullish as they could be. That's good from an investor's perspective. Looking at the indexes very quickly, S&P is down 0.21%. Dow is down 0.27%. Nasdaq is down 0.33%. Let's look at crypto here. Crypto, Bitcoin is at $60,275. Ethereum has yet to go to zero, but it's probably working on that. It's at $2,313. Cardano is a lot closer to zero than Ethereum is. I don't even know why Cardano is being listed here. Doesn't matter at all. Litecoin is up. Cosmos is up. A lot of fossils from, so you can tell the person that put together this particular group of cryptos doesn't really follow crypto that much. By the way, if you'd like to follow our crypto and stock investments, make sure to become a member if you haven't already. So zero hedge, they often have a pretty insightful commentary. It's a good follow on X. So I think what they're saying is absolutely correct. So Fed did not change its 2025 GDP forecast at all. It sees 2025 unemployment up just a fraction from 4.2 to 4.4%. And 2025 core PCE dip from 2.3 to 2.2%. And that justifies the FOMC predicting an additional three or eight cuts from June to September. So basically we had, as I mentioned, the best of both worlds. We had confidence that inflation was going down and confidence that the economy is not really in dire shape and therefore why not cut? That's where we are right now. The focus I think I didn't show you guys the zero hedge tweet I was referring to. Right now the focus shifts towards the election. And I really don't know how these percentages are being calculated. They do seem to oscillate between the candidates every other day almost. And we probably won't get any decisive direction for the odds here barring a major news event. So this piece of ambiguity will continue to exert its influence on the markets. As I mentioned before, and I don't like to be political, and I'm not really a fan of either candidate to be completely frank, but I do think that Trump's policies are more pro-business and probably better in aggregate than Harris's policies. And I'm talking strictly on the economy. Now with regards to social issues, other issues like that, I think Harris is an absolute disaster. And her policies will bring about additional destruction to society, but it will be done under the guise of mercy, and under the guise of being friendly, and under the guise of tolerating and being tolerant. But it will be ultimately destructive for the American society more than Trump's will. That's my two cents. Walaikum salam to everyone who is commenting. It's nice to see so many of you guys here. Salam. May I ask what broker do you use for crypto? I'll actually do one better for you, Qiran. We recently shared the most used brokerages by country for PIF members. So if you're actually, if you are part of our newsletter, you can get access to that. So sign up to our newsletter if you aren't already become a PIF member so you can get that information. Jason, I think. Muhammad says Bowman agreed with the hurricane. Yeah, it's very hard to predict these things. Taskeen says, Salam alaikum. Walaikum salam, Taskeen. Nice to see you. Historically speaking, is there an average time between the announcement of rate cuts and the crash that follows? Let's hope there isn't a crash. I am actually hopeful that the Fed was helpful for the markets because it really, the crash comes when the market following a cut anticipates a recession. And everything that the Fed said today indicated that they were not worried about a recession. And so unless there's a piece of economic data that comes out that tells us that we're towards a recession, raises that probability, then Inshallah we'll avoid a crash. Inshallah. Nirvana Bug says, Salam brother. Do you foresee a recession in 2024, 2025? I am a hodler. Should I take money out of crypto market or still hold? I can't give you personalized financial advice. I can only tell you what I would do or what I am doing with my own money. And as I've communicated to PIF members, I have been keeping consistently 10 to 20% cash dry powder in the case we get like really attractive, really attractive prices and a crash. But other than that, I remain invested. Ali says, Hi Walaikum salam Ali. Nice to see you. Can we invest in a Halal company where most investment comes from Haram sources? It seems like your question is contradictory in that it would not be a Halal company if most of their returns or revenues come from Haram sources. So not really sure what you mean there. Perhaps I've missed it. Qiyan says, May I ask what broker? Sorry, that's the same question. Yeah. Jessam says we don't invest in companies where most investment comes from Haram sources. Jessam says his broker is Robinhood. Yeah, I think Robinhood is actually a good broker. I've changed my mind on it because I've experienced other brokers and a lot of them really stink in terms of like their responsiveness, their, you know, level of ease, especially for new users to use. And I'll specifically point out Interactive Brokers. I've often mentioned Interactive Brokers as being a good brokerage because they're accessible in a large number of countries and they have access to a large number of equities. But their app stinks. It's not intuitive. It's hard to use. It's often making a deposit is often takes forever. Sometimes for their verification system doesn't work. So I'm not really a fan of theirs. Assalamualaikum, should I invest in a Hadassah where they raise some of their money from Haram sources? Yeah, I would look at the interest expense and make my decision accordingly. I'm assuming they raise some of their money from Haram sources means that they took on a lot of debt. Could be wrong. Rashad says, Assalamualaikum, can I take the meeting as declaring victory? It certainly seemed like they were declaring victory against inflation, and I'm just hesitant to do that just yet. Jasim says, these companies raise their money from stock instead of taking on high interest loan they sell part of. So that's actually OK. Have you updated? Can you? Yeah, we're actually working on doing a revamp of our Halal reports on our site altogether, and I think they're going to be five times as good as they are right now. So yeah, definitely keep an eye out for that. Rashad says, brother, can please leave Ethereum alone? Will do, Rashad. No, nothing against Ethereum and nothing against Ethereum holders, I should say. But Ethereum, the asset itself, just I don't know why I like to pick on it. Assalamualaikum, brother, what are your thoughts on a PhD in Islamic economics? What are other pathways? I want a career in challenging normative Islamic economics finances. I believe there's lots wrong. That's actually exactly how I got started. I believe that there were a lot, there was a lot wrong with Islamic economics and a lot of the things that, and actually the trigger for me was I researched the topic of insurance and whether insurance was Halal and Haram, and I watched a few videos and I was like, man, we are so behind here. The level of commentary here is really poor. Let me, I think I can make commentary that's better than this, that's more supported, more logical, conforms more tightly with my religion. And so I did, and that was my first video. That's how I got started. Regarding PhDs, I would say this is just my view. I think there's so much information you can learn in a non-formal way that if you need the PhD in order, you're trying to become a teacher in a university, then that would be justification for getting a PhD or some other job that, you know, this is your dream and you need a PhD to accomplish it, then okay, have at it. But I just think, you know, what I would tell my kids, and it's basically, you don't really, college in general, the beyond the initial, you know, three or four years, however much it takes you, I'm not really sure, you know, how much value there is there, unless of course you're studying to get a degree that is required in a field that needs licensing. For example, like a doctor, obviously he has to go to college. Someone who is looking to become a civil engineer, yeah, he has to go to college. There's a licensing process there. For someone who is, okay, wants to be an entrepreneur, if they come to me and they say, oh, what do you think about college? I would say, I don't know, man, maybe starting a business is going to teach you more than going to college route. But that's coming from me, who I have two degrees, one in computer engineering, one in finance. And I also, I'm not sure in what direction this actually is supportive of, but I, I'm a chartered financial analyst. I hold the CFA, I'm a CFA charter holder. And this is probably one of the toughest things to get in the area of finance, but you don't actually have to go to school for it. There are three exams that you have to take. You have to have a certain level of experience to get it. But it was basically, I studied on my own. I didn't go through any sort of formal process to get it. I just took the exams. I did a lot of studying and getting degrees myself. But after that, having done all of that, I would say at this point, there's so much you can teach yourself that you really have to think long and hard before investing a big chunk of your life, a big chunk of your money into a degree. So ask yourself, is this really necessary? Or is there an easier way to get to where I want to go? So remember, a degree, a formal degree is a means to an end. So just ask yourself, is this means necessary, or can I get to my end in some other way? This is not to say, however, and by the way, something I've been really proud of myself this year is that I've committed myself to learning all the time. And the first few hours of my days are always dedicated to learning, specifically as it relates to investing. I like to learn new things about investing. So I start my day with teaching myself new things about investing. And lifelong learning is something that now more than ever, you need to be dedicated to. But going the formal route of giving, getting a degree, I think that's probably not necessary in many cases. But yeah, I don't know how I got off on that tangent. Hopefully it's useful to somebody. Is M1 Crypto Halal to invest? I think the so M1 Crypto brokerage, I think, just look, try and see, I haven't actually looked at this, because I know that their selections is very limited. But just look, are they actually holding the crypto? Or is it like a derivative or something like that? That will answer your question. Hey, it's fun. Nice to see you. Well, I'm from Slovakia. Okay, just about to board a flight home. I'll save travels. That's fine. And he says, keep up the good work. Thank you very much. Line will go up inshallah inshallah. So we have a lot of Hey, guys, I really appreciate all these comments. This is awesome to see. I will, I will pick some of them since I don't think I can go through all of them. What's your opinion on Siri? I'm more a fan of Solana. Any good book on macroeconomics? And how financial markets work? I would actually and this is not just because he's Muslim, but he certainly has a Muslim name. But if you if you look up Muhammad LR Yan, I think he's an Egyptian. He has a book, I believe it's called the only book, the only game in town. The only game in town came out years ago. But that was a really good I think overview of reading it will give you a pretty good idea of how the economy works. It's advanced though. I'll see if I can think of something else. Mashallah CFA is very difficult. Did you complete all three? Yeah, I did complete all three Alhamdulillah. All three exams. Is it relevant? 2024? Yeah, I do think it's relevant. I think it teaches you some. So in my, my purpose was to learn everything there is, I wanted to enhance my money management skills. So as an investment manager, I wanted to learn more about that. And I think if that's something you're interested in, it is relevant. Tame says the formal process is still very useful. Please don't discourage the use of it probably expand your thought process and opportunities in life. Yeah, I agree that the formal process is useful. And so that's why I said like beyond the first three, four years, you really have to think long and hard going masters, PhD, etc. But I do think it is useful. I'm just, I guess I question those who go the very long routes and accumulate a lot of degrees, how useful those additional degrees are, I think probably getting in most cases, undergraduate degree, that makes sense. But beyond that, it really depends on whether there's licensing that requires that or not. But for sure, our what was revealed first to our prophet, peace be upon him was acquiring knowledge is top priority always the question is the formal process needed or not and to what extent so that's what I was commenting on. Alright guys, if this was useful to you guys, leave a like I'd really appreciate it. Thank you so much for all the comments. I think we broke a record with the number of comments we got. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. Now's the time when the market gets really interesting. Now's the time when, inshallah, line go up as one of our commenters said. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. I really appreciate you guys coming and yeah, see you in the next one. Salam.