The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Sugar High
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Sugar High
In this episode we will cover:
- Fed's Rate Cut & Market Reaction
- Tesla & Upcoming RoboTaxi Event
- Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies Overview
- Small-Cap Stocks & Interest Rate Impact
- BlackRock's Bitcoin Report
- Q&A Session: Crypto Use Cases & Blockchain Speculation
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Thursday, September 19th, and we have a green day, and it's not necessarily surprising considering the events of yesterday. As I mentioned, the Fed said everything the market wanted to hear. They said that they were confident with the inflation picture and the fact that it's slowing down, and they said they weren't really nervous about the economy. And so that's really what the market wanted to hear. And oh, by the way, we're slashing interest rates by 50 basis points. As I also mentioned, Tesla is a company that has, and a stock that has exhibited inverse correlation with interest rates in a big way, and stands to benefit a lot from a cut in interest rates, and we saw that today. The company is up close to 7% just today, and I think there's a lot more to come, probably knock on the door of 300 before their RoboTaxi event on October 10th. So let us talk about the markets. So Bitcoin is at 63,700. We appear to be breaking out of the narrow range that we've been in for the last three to six months, and there's likely a lot more to go. Now, I named this live sugar high because I do think that, by the way, wa'alaikum salam to everyone, Fahad, Nachra, Ali, it's nice to see you all. I do think that maybe there's a pullback in the remaining two weeks of September, nothing to be scared about, but there may be a sugar high that the market is experiencing right now from yesterday's Fed news, and perhaps there's a bit of a pullback, but as I mentioned, I think Q4 will be very strong for us, inshallah. As you can see, crypto risk assets across the board have been doing quite well today. So Solana is up close to 8%, it's at 143 today. Ripple was up, even though I was news of a pretty sizable transfer of Ripple to exchanges, so perhaps there's some selling pressure coming for that token. Litecoin is up 2%. I'm going to get you a different list. These are a lot of outdated cryptos, not really relevant for this cycle, I don't think. Now, what will be relevant is the small cap stocks. Are the small cap stocks. Russell 2000 is up, let's see, in the last five days, it's up 5%. If we're looking off of the low, it's up close to 8%. The low that was September 6th for the last month, at least the low. And I've mentioned before, I thought that the smaller cap stocks would do well for the remaining part of the year. And this is largely due to the fact that they are often impacted a lot more by interest expense. It's a bigger percentage of their overall expenses. And so when that goes down, their profitability improves a lot more than larger companies, more established companies, where things like interest expense don't really matter as much. If we look at the VIX index, it is down today. So the market is feeling a lot more confident. And the VIX or the fear index is reflecting that. Now, I will say that there is an inverse correlation between the level of the VIX and your expected return. So the lower the VIX, the lower the expected return. So the lower the fear, the lower the expected return, the higher the fear, the higher the expected return. It's a lot harder to invest when fear is higher, but investors typically get rewarded for that. The dollar index is heading down. This has an inverse correlation. Sorry, I said the VIX has an inverse correlation. Actually, it's a positive correlation with return. So the higher the VIX index, the higher the expected return. But with the U.S. dollar index, the lower the dollar index, the weaker the dollar, the higher the expected return or the higher asset prices go because they're denominated in U.S. dollars. So the weaker the dollar, the more dollars you have to pay for the same asset. And also, there's a lot of companies, especially in the United States, who have foreign revenues and they translate those foreign revenues to dollars. And so if the dollar becomes weaker, then these revenues translate into more dollars and therefore the expected earnings of these companies goes up. So that's why the U.S. dollar index going down is actually good for risk assets. If we look at winners and losers today, as I mentioned, Tesla was a big winner today, 7.26%. And Rashad did ask me, he put me on the spot the other time. He said, pick a stock for the near term. I picked Tesla. And indeed, alhamdulillah, Tesla is performing quite well. And I think there's more upside here. As I mentioned, I think we'll knock the door on 300 before its October 10th event. Now let's move on to crypto. And sorry, guys, I'm forgetting to switch the tab I'm sharing. So this is the dollar index that I was talking about. Actually, it touched below 100 yesterday, and it hasn't done that since July of 2023. Now expect the dollar index to recover somewhat as other central banks who were waiting for the U.S. to start its easing cycle do easing of their own. And one of the reasons why they wait is because they don't want their currency to fall dramatically when compared to the dollar. So now that the dollar has started a Federal Reserve in the U.S. has started with its monetary easing, other central banks can do the same. All right. Remember to share this tab. So yeah, as I mentioned, Tesla up more than 7% today and Nvidia is up more than 5%. A lot of these semiconductor stocks are up. As I mentioned, a lot of the technology stocks, the ones that were traditionally viewed as having high valuations, may do extremely well in this upcoming period because a lot of the future cash flows are going to be discounted at lower interest rates, which makes which gives them a higher present value. All right. Now let's talk about crypto. Total market cap. Still, we haven't really seen a spike in total market cap. There was a small increase in market cap in the past 24 hours, but nowhere near our high for this year, which was approaching$2.7 trillion. We're currently at $2.2 trillion, another $500 billion to go to get to our previous high. And I think we'll go a lot higher than that, probably go higher than $3 trillion this cycle, which means that now is the time, if ever there was a time, to become a PIF member so you can get started investing and, inshallah, beat the indexes. This is a membership that will, inshallah, pay for itself many times over. Do become part of our community if you haven't already. Now let's talk about the darling of the crypto world, and that is Bitcoin. BlackRock, manager of $9 trillion in assets, had a report that mentioned Bitcoin as a unique diversifier against geopolitical and monetary risks. And if you look around you in the world, geopolitical and monetary risks are abound. So this feature is quite a valuable one, especially in the times we live in. So BlackRock sees Bitcoin as a unique hedge against geopolitical and monetary risks due to its scarcity, decentralized nature, and low correlation with traditional assets. Basically what crypto bros have been telling you for the last 10 years, myself included, although I don't consider myself a crypto bro, hopefully not. So in their report they say, while Bitcoin has been volatile and has seen short episodes of co-movements with equities, Bitcoin's long-term correlation to equities and bonds has been low, and its long-term historical returns have been vastly higher than all major asset classes. That's very important. It's very rare that you come across an asset that has low correlation with other assets and beats them in expected return, at least as per its history. So when you have an asset like that, you can add it to your portfolio without decreasing the expected return of that portfolio because there's low correlation. So when you're constructing a portfolio, I go into this in our course, when you construct your portfolio, you want assets that have low correlation with each other because if the assets are inversely correlated, then one's gains will be erased by the other one's losses. If they're positively correlated with one another, then when they go down, they're all going to go down together. So the volatility is going to be very high. When there's no correlation, then you aren't impacting the expected return of the portfolio. And so Bitcoin has a very unique characteristic in that it can be added to portfolios without being detrimental to the expected return of those portfolios because of its low correlation with other assets. Now from a practical perspective, what makes Bitcoin relevant? Now we all know this, we've been saying this, but because BlackRock finally is recognizing this, it is making news. If you look at traditional currencies, dollars, yens, euros, they're prone to inflation and debasement given a non-fixed supply. They're difficult to transact across borders. Access is limited to one's particular country controlled by a central authority. So basically the dollar, the central bank can print as many of them as they want. It's very hard to move dollars from here to Egypt, from here to Indonesia in a seamless and instant way. And a lot of countries, you can't use dollars and access to them is limited to specific geographies. And they're controlled by a central authority that is motivated by their own self-interest. I know you're probably gasping, hey, I never knew politicians, policy makers were motivated by self-interest. I know this is a big surprise. I'm sure you're in shock, jaws to the floor. But yes, indeed they are. Now what Bitcoin is making possible is a fixed maximum supply that's hard-coded at 21 million. Supply growth is declining. I'm sure you recall the halving that we had. Digitally native and borderless. You can send anywhere in the world instantaneously, low fees, any time of day, 24 seven, it's available. First truly open access global monetary system. So BlackRock, which has $9 trillion in assets under management, word means something is on board with the Bitcoin trend. Obviously they're also have a tendency to be self-serving. And this report is self-serving for BlackRock because they have the BTC ETF. Nevertheless, what they're saying I think is true. And they mentioned in the report, as the global investment community grapples with rising geopolitical tensions, concerns over the state of US debt and deficits and increased political instability around the world, Bitcoin may be seen as an increasingly unique diversifier against these fiscal, monetary and geopolitical risk factors investors may face elsewhere in their portfolio. Now, you may say to yourself, actually, what I've observed is Bitcoin being quite correlated with the NASDAQ and others. And you would be right. For many instances, Bitcoin is correlated. So it's not a zero correlation. However, Bitcoin tends to move with other assets when there is dramatic moves. So when there are dramatic moves, typically correlations are broken. Dramatic moves in either direction, typically correlations are broken. So that may be what you are experiencing, what you are referring to in your mind when you're recalling Bitcoin's price action. However, if you take just day-to-day correlation without dramatic moves in the indexes or very acute periods of panic, if you were to take those periods out, the times of extreme volatility, then you'll see that Bitcoin actually day-to-day normal circumstances has very little correlation with other equities and other assets. In other crypto news, Solana's second phone is nearly here, anticipated by exactly no one who needs a phone. But they have had a lot of success with their first phone because it comes with free stuff. So, yeah, if you're into buying something for$300 that comes with $600 worth of stuff, then Solana's phone is for you. Certainly, its first phone, that was its appeal initially when they launched at very weak sales, but then they added airdrops to it and all of a sudden it became popular. I wonder why? No one's making phone calls with this. And the same was Solana's second phone. No one's going to be using it for anything except as an airdrop machine. This comes out in 2025. I'm sure they'll sell out so long as the airdrops are generous, and I'm sure they will be. After all, why not make them generous? Crypto, most of it is created out of thin air, so be generous with thin air tokens. And yeah, cryptocurrency continues, as far as I can tell, to only be useful for one thing, and that is as a means of exchange. Until today, I haven't seen any crypto app that is useful for anything other than that. The app is either used as a means of exchange or some sort of other associated service. So yeah, maybe you'll get some apps that are popular, that are involved, or that enable you to trade pre-launches or something like that. But that's just speculation. Until today, I hold the position that crypto has not proven itself, the blockchain has not proven itself useful for anything other than speculation and moving value from one place to another, which I actually think is quite useful, quite beneficial. But other than that, not really. And I've basically invested accordingly. So with that, guys, let's go to some of your questions. We got a lot of questions today, just like yesterday, which is awesome to see. Thank you all for coming. Rashad, Tesla, let's go. Yes, indeed, my brother, let's go. Some news out there. 50 point cut equals 50% chance of a recession. What's your take? I don't think it's that easy of a probability calculation. Certainly, if there was, we think there's going to be 100 base point cut by the end of the year. If that happens, does that mean there's 100% chance of a recession? I don't necessarily think so. That being said, I will say that a lot of what is keeping the economy strong is government spending. Now, if Kamala is elected, I expect that to continue in a big way. If Trump is elected, I expect the stimulus to come through tax break. So either way, I expect the government to continue to be heavily involved in stimulating the economy. And therefore, hopefully, we're able to achieve to achieve a soft dish landing, hopefully. Selimatic asks, can I take a loan without interest from people who are doing haram businesses like selling alcohol? So this unrelated to investing. So if you don't mind, Selimatic, I'm gonna skip. I have a question about Ripple. What is the future price forecast estimation for Ripple? Depends on your time horizon. For a long enough time horizon, I think the future is going to make some people nervous, perhaps. The estimated price is zero. I just don't see why it needs to exist. I could be wrong, though. What do you think about ETH? Is ETH dying? I would say ETH. I would say yes. Meme coins are exploding. I expect more of that. And by the way, it's more logical than I think people give credit to because meme coins can be used as a means of exchange. So meme coins actually have or are able to do the only thing that crypto is useful for, which is transferring value from one party to the other. So I think meme coins exploding makes perfect sense. But I would be very cautious with meme coins that are centrally controlled, meme coins that have a lot of dilution scheduled or where a big percentage of circulating supply is in a very small number of hands. These are very susceptible to rug pulls. So be very careful. What is your stance on AI coins? My stance is that anything with AI is doing well. Some with merit, some without merit. Make sure to be cognizant of what actually has merit, what doesn't. Because in the end, what will live on is that which has merit. And what is useless will be the foam that is swept away. Abdullah says, Salam, Arkan. Do you have any feedback on data, streamer coin? I haven't taken a look. Perhaps I will. F story says, can you make a detailed video about airdrops, whether they are halal or haram? I think if the coin is coin, the fact that you're getting them as an incentive for something, if that action is halal, then I don't see why it would be haram. Can you just make a video on PIF membership and what it includes? Sure. So PIF membership members, and I can make a video about this, but members can follow my portfolios that I invest in using real money. And right now we have four portfolios. We have growth, emerging growth, dividend and crypto. And so whenever I make a trade, I let members know. We also have a watch list of assets that I've invested in and also assets that I just keep an eye on. And I have buy, hold, sell prices. So well, buy and sell prices. So I'll buy below a certain price. I'll sell above a certain price. And between those places I'll hold. We also have a community, which I think is the most important part of our membership. So you get to interact with other halal conscious investors that are trying to build wealth in a halal way. We also have monthly meetings. So where I go over our portfolios and our outlook for them. And for elite membership, you also get the course that I add to periodically with new lessons. So teaching investors how to fish for themselves, basically. So that's what you get in a nutshell. Perhaps I'll make a more detailed video in the future. All right. So As-salamu alaykum. Ahmed Hussain says, Bitcoin will be the next bubble, given the lack of regulation. What are your thoughts on this? Actually, I think that with the ETFs in the United States that were approved earlier this year, the threat of adverse government action has gone down substantially, considering now it's in the average person's portfolio. Sometimes it's in their retirement. So the politician who wants to adversely attack coin tends to lose a lot of votes. Investing. Okay, not sure. Ali says, fi amanillah. So someone may have left. I received money from dog's airdrops, which is a meme coin. Is this money halal or not? As I mentioned, I think if the coin is halal, I don't see why not. Actually, I have to say, dogs and ton coin are on my shortlist. I'm actually quite interested in them. So, yeah, perhaps I'll have more to say about that. Sheikh Adnan, nice to see you. As-salamu alaykum. Natura says, I actually mean the price forecast estimation XRP coin from Ripple. Is it literally 538 and to reach that price? I do mean XRP coin. I think XRP coin isn't necessarily going to do well. I don't see it. I don't see any reason for it to exist. Could XLM reach $1? Anything is possible. The question you want to ask, Fahad, is it probable? And the answer is, I don't know. I think this requires a deep dive. Is purchase fee for crypto halal? By the way, it's $3.99. I'll see why a purchase fee would not be halal. What's going on with the miners? Which miner are you talking about? I think that we've run up a lot on our miners. Perhaps today's movement fell short of a lot of people's ambition, depending on the name that they're looking at, but not worried at all. Inshallah, they will do quite well. All right, guys, thank you all for coming. Let's get this live to 100 likes. And if you haven't hit the notification bell, hit the notification bell when I go live next. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.