The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Tailwinds

Rakaan Kayali

► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!

► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance

Tailwinds
In this episode we will cover:

  • Introduction & Market Overview (Bitcoin, Tesla, S&P, Nasdaq)
  • Tesla's Strong Position & Analyst Expectations
  • Geopolitical Events & Market Reactions
  • Tailwinds for the Market: Dollar Index & Rate Cuts
  • Bitcoin Bullish Momentum: SEC Approves Physically Settled Options
  • Q4 Market Outlook 
  • Iris Energy Update: Exceeding Projections
  • Tesla's Q3 Delivery Expectations & RoboTaxi Event
  • Global Outlook: Afghanistan's Progress
  • Q&A Session

CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you're doing well. Today is Monday, September 23rd and Bitcoin is at 63,300. Tesla's at 249, very close to 250. And today we're going to talk about a lot of tailwinds that are helping our positions, what they are, what they mean for the future. If you enjoy these lives, do leave a like. I really enjoy them. I honestly missed you guys over the weekend. I wasn't able to go live on Friday, so it was too long of a period without going live. So I'm glad to be back. I hope you're glad to be here. As I mentioned, leave a like if you enjoy these lives. And without further ado, let's get started. So the S&P today, it's up 0.24%, Dow is up 0.02%, Nasdaq is up a quarter percentage point. Not dramatic moves, but in the right direction nonetheless. Individual positions, you can see here Tesla has the, I hate all these pop-ups that this page is just littered with them. I'll figure out a way to not have to deal with them in the next live, Inshallah. But Tesla, as you can see, the brightest square in this map. And there's a reason for that. So a number of different analysts came out with some pretty bullish expectations for their deliveries. We'll talk about that in detail. As it relates to the VIX index, in case you're wondering how the markets are feeling about the events in the Middle East, it doesn't seem like the market is really paying much attention to them. Today, the VIX or the volatility index, also known as the fear index, was down 2% today. So market is basically of the impression that what happens in the Middle East is not really going to affect global markets in a big way as of now. And so it doesn't seem like market players are really that shaken by the events over there. For our first tailwind for the markets, the dollar index is close to a one-year low, as I've explained in previous lives. Dollar index is really either supportive or restrictive of markets. The dollar index looks at the dollar in comparison with major currencies worldwide. And when the dollar is cheap compared to those major currencies, the price of real assets in dollars tends to go up. This is to be expected. So long as the dollar index continues to work in our favor, this will continue to be a tailwind for markets. Now, with the expectation of another 50 base point cut until the end of the year and additional 100 base points next year, if not more, this is likely to continue. What could throw this off is if we get a higher than expected inflation print, then the expectations for interest rate cuts will mellow out and therefore we may see a strengthened dollar. That being said, everything is also relative. So you have to take into account what other central banks are expected to do here, because we're looking at the dollar in relation to other major currencies. Long story short, so long as we are headed southward or at least maintaining our current levels, not headed northward in a major way for the dollar index, then inshallah we should be good as it relates to this one element. Now, an additional tailwind we got for a asset that we have a diverse array of exposure to is the fact that last week the SEC approved the list of physically settled options tied to BlackRock's spot Bitcoin, the iShares Bitcoin trust or iBit. Now, the reason why this is bullish for Bitcoin is I expect the exposure to these options to be somewhat skewed in the bullish direction. And what this cause, so if a lot of people are buying call options, that means the other side of the trade, which are the market makers who sold them the call options, will have to hedge their risk and the way for them to do so is to actually buy physical Bitcoin. These are physically settled options after all. So this could, some were mentioning that this could lead to a GameStop situation. So we have a where we had a gamma squeeze in 2021. I don't necessarily think that with an asset like Bitcoin, the size of Bitcoin, that's as big of a possibility as it is for something like a GameStop. Also, something to keep in mind is that options may have a mellowing out effect for volatility, considering that the options will likely attract institutional investors, which is good for the long run. And it's also probably going to mellow out the volatility of the asset, considering that institutions do things like taking profits at the end of quarters. They also like to hedge their risk with put options and that could have an opposite effect. So all in all, I think this is the acceptance or the approval of options by the SEC, physically settled Bitcoin options by the SEC is yet another step in the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset. So this is good. This is a long term bullish for the asset for Bitcoin, whether we get a gamma squeeze or not. By the way, now is the time, if ever, to become a PIF member, because I think that we're leaving Rectember and we're entering October and inshallah the fourth quarter will be bullish for markets. We still have to get through the election. There's a lot of variables there, but I do see the fourth quarter as being an up quarter inshallah, especially for the assets that we hold. So do become a PIF member, follow our moves and join our community. Now, speaking of following our moves, Iris Energy, a stock that we hold in one of our portfolios, one of our four portfolios, reported a pretty good update today. Basically, it mentioned that it had slightly beat its expectation or forecast of reaching 20x a hash by the end of this quarter. And now it thinks it's going to reach 21x a hash by the end of this quarter. There's only a few days left in this quarter. But because of that, it thinks that it will get to 31x a hash by the end of the year. And very importantly, with an average efficiency of 15 joules per terahash. Now what this means, oh, and by the way, so it mentioned as part of its update that Childress phase three, 150 megawatt construction is well underway with approximately 430 people mobilized to site as part of the expansion from 21x a hash to 31x a hash. Previously purchased Bitmain S21 XP miners, which have an efficiency that is even better than the average that they have currently. An efficiency of 13.5 joules per terahash are scheduled for shipping over the next two months. Now, based on the 31x a hash that is expected for the end of the year, and they're expecting 50x a hash for next year, that number is probably going to increase just as the number for the year end increased. Based on the 31x a hash, 15 joules per terahash, they're expecting 20,000 is the electricity cost per Bitcoin mined and 30,000 is the all in cash cost per Bitcoin mine. Now that doesn't take into account the other big expense that Bitcoin miners have, which is depreciation. But still this from a cash flow perspective, this is very good. It lessens the need to dilute shareholders when you have a healthy cash flow. 30,000 all in cash cost per Bitcoin mined as mentioned. Now the assumptions here are made based on a cost per kilowatt hour for electricity. That's the main cost here when we're talking about Bitcoin mining. In their assumption the cost is $0.038, so close to $0.04, whereas in August they actually had a cost of $0.031 per kilowatt hour. So it may actually end up being less than what they expect if they're able to get a similar price for their electricity. So really good update from Iris Energy. Yet another tailwind for this stock and reason to be bullish on it. I did end up buying some after the pullback that we experienced last. And today, alhamdulillah, it is up I think close to 6%. So that was good. All right. So as it relates to Tesla, I mentioned we had a pretty good note coming out from a number of analysts actually. It seems like they're communicating with one another. So Barclays Barclays expects Tesla to report Q3 deliveries of 470,000 units up 8% year over year and above the consensus estimate of 461,000. The deliveries could drive continued stock strength and be a reminder of dissipated concerns on fundamentals. Firm believes Q3 volume strength will be driven almost entirely by China as Europe is weak. So China is going to pick up the slack in Europe as per this analyst's forecast. Given the positive data points reported thus far in the quarter, particularly in China, Tesla's sale trajectory is well understood and investors are expecting a stronger result. And not only that, but we have the October 10th event wherein RoboTaxi is going to be unveiled. More details about how it's going to work are going to be unveiled to investors and analysts are going to be able, I think, to use it as an input in their valuation models. And you're going to see a lot of expected prices for the stock be upgraded post event. This is what I think. And so that should be an additional tailwind for this stock. So that is very exciting. And finally, something that is unique in terms of what I cover on this channel, but I have been keeping an eye out on Afghanistan and they seem to be doing a lot of things right. Here you can see poppy growing has fallen 99% in recent years. And that's really bullish for the country. They're really being very responsible fiscally. They have, in terms of debt, they have one of the, and balance sheets, they have one of the best, healthiest balance sheets on earth. They have a lot of natural resources, but their most important resource, and I hope more countries realize this, most important resources, the human resources that the country has. They have some very bright population. I'm very bullish on this country. And I think, and I would love inshallah to be an investor in this country in the future. So just wanted to end with that piece of good news. And with that, we'll take questions very quickly. Nice to see you Chakla. What's going on here with BlackRock? So I did explain that Ahmed, so I don't want to go over it again, but basically look up what gamma squeeze is. And now that options, there's still some approvals that the options, the physically settled Bitcoin options need, but long story short, if the skew of options sold is towards call options, then this could create this self-enforcing squeeze upwards in the price of Bitcoin. And some analysts are seeing that as bullish. I agree with that. I think the skew of investors who hold options will be towards call options, and that will be supportive of the price that I think the options will be supportive of Bitcoin's price. Mohammed says, assalamu alaikum, I love your work. Thank you. Do you recommend me becoming a paid member of PIF knowing I live in the UK? Yeah, Mohammed, really. So long as you have access to a broker that you can buy and sell US listed stocks on, then yeah, absolutely. I recommend it. After all, it is my product. And you obviously have that in the UK. Are you from Afghanistan, my brother? No, I am not. I would love to visit Afghanistan. Obviously the pictures from there are breathtaking. The nature there I think is, I think it could be like one of the top countries in terms of tourism if it's properly invested in. I'm actually from Syria, alhamdulillah. Thoughts on nuclear energy? I think nuclear energy is a big part of our energy future and makes a lot of sense to invest in it. I have to say I missed investing in it a year or two ago when prices were a lot better. I think it's become more of an obvious opportunity now. And bargains that were available in the past are no longer available. But I still think that it is a good, solid sector with secular tailwinds in its back. Do you think CleanSpark or Iron will reach$40 to $50 this cycle? No, I don't think so. With Bitcoin miners, you have to be especially aware of the dilution that these stocks experience. So even if the market cap, let's say doubled or tripled, that's not necessarily what you're going to see holding the stock because of the additional stock that's issued. So your stock is less of the overall pie. So even if the pie is increasing, you may not get a proportional share in that increase. So it's important to be cognizant of that. With the CleanSpark especially, I feel more comfortable with Iris Energy for a number of reasons than I do over CleanSpark. Ahmed says, yeah, I'm familiar with gamma squeezing. I rode GameStop on the way down. Sorry to hear that. Inshallah, it doesn't happen with you again. And it's a lesson learned. We all have to pay our tuition some way. All right, guys, thank you for, oh, Ahmed Bashir says, what is PIS portfolio returning year to date? I can look that up for you and see what our biggest portfolio actually has returned year to date. Now keep in mind, this is the money weighted rate of return. So I can share my portfolio screen with you. The money weighted rate of return is year to date. So less than a year is 24.77%. So that's PIF growth portfolio. So that should give you an idea. Inshallah, I think with fourth quarter, I think that number will go up a lot. All right, guys, thank you for tuning in. Leave a like if you haven't left already. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.