The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Recovery
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Recovery
In this episode we will cover:
- Introduction & Portfolio Update
- NVIDIA Recovery & Semiconductor Outlook
- Iris Energy’s 10% Surge
- PIF Membership & Portfolio Access
- China’s Monetary Easing & Global Impact
- Bitcoin Market Cycles & U.S. Elections
- Trump vs. Kamala: Bitcoin Outlook
- Bitcoin’s Long-term Potential
- Piedmont Lithium’s 10% Gain & Market Trends
- Lithium Supply Concerns & CATL Impact
- Q&A Session
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is September 24th and it is a Tuesday. Sorry, I'm getting ahead of myself. Bitcoin is at 63,600. Had a really strong day for our portfolio. It was pretty flat for overall indexes, but for our portfolio we did extremely well. Alhamdulillah, we had a couple of different positions move in double digits. Always nice to see that. But in order to get to this day, we had to go through a really tough time. But it's really nice that we are solidly on our way to recovery and then some. Alhamdulillah. Today, if we're looking at the movers, we have Nvidia. It moved north of 4%. We're now back at 120. So a quick recovery there for that stock. I expect the same to happen for a lot of the semiconductor names, the strongest ones. That is for coin miners, mining stocks. We did really well today. You have one of our names, Iris Energy. Today it was up more than 10%. And there's a lot more where that came from, alhamdulillah, as part of our portfolio. We did a good buy last Friday. Turned out very well timed. If you'd like to follow our portfolios, be sure to become a PIF member if you aren't already. You can choose between, after creating an account, choose between premium and elite to follow our portfolios. The difference with elite is that you get access to our course. It relates to Bitcoin, which Bitcoin miners are very closely related to, obviously. We had a pretty big news event with China following in the Fed's footsteps with regards to engaging in monetary easing. China's central bank announced a 50 base point cut in its reserve requirements. And that is the amount of funds banks must hold in reserve. The 50 base point cut in reserve and reserve requirement ratios frees up 1 trillion yuan for lending, coupled with a 500 billion yuan funding program for stock market investment. And this has sparked optimism across global markets. If you see the relationship between the assets on the China central bank, their balance sheet, if you see the relationship between that and Bitcoin's price, it tends to be a positive relationship in that they tend to move in the same direction. So when asset prices are going up, we can expect Bitcoin to follow suit. And liquidity is set to rise for all major economies. This is something that I have mentioned many times on this channel, and that is a lot of these central banks are waiting on the Fed to make its move because they don't want their currency to get clobbered in relation to the U.S. dollar. Now that the Fed has initiated monetary easing, a lot of these other central banks are going to start to follow suit. So you're going to see global liquidity rising. And that's why I have been adamant that the bull market, inshallah, is not over and Q4 is setting up to be very strong for us. If we look at Bitcoin specifically and assuming that history rhymes, the average Bitcoin cycle, it starts 170 days after the halving. It peaks 480 days after the halving. And we're currently at 156 days after the most recent Bitcoin halving. Global liquidity is about to spike. As I've mentioned, central banks are cutting interest rates and we do have a source of volatility in the U.S. elections that are upcoming. Now, in either case, I've been asked many times, do you think Trump winning will be more bullish or Kamala winning? As it relates to Bitcoin, I think that over the near term, yes, a Trump win will be more bullish for Bitcoin than Kamala winning. But I do think that Kamala, if she goes ahead with any of her economic policies, is going to basically make the thesis for Bitcoin even stronger because what she's proposing is going to lead to increased deficits, increased spending and make the case for Bitcoin as a store of value even stronger. So over the longer term, Kamala is winning maybe even more bullish for Bitcoin. Over the short term, yes, I do think a Trump win will be more bullish for Bitcoin. But over the long term, because of the irresponsibility of some of the Democratic Party's economic policies, they may end up making the thesis for Bitcoin even stronger, something to keep in mind. And it's not a bad position to be in where the asset that you're holding will stand to benefit basically regardless of who ends up winning. Now, it's important to have an accurate assessment of where we are right now. So we've had six months of sideways price action. Yes, this is true. But this six months of sideways price action is holding above previous cycles all time highs. So that's really noteworthy. I don't think we've ever had a cycle where this was actually true, where in the accumulation phase we've maintained a level that was at the previous cycles all time highs. And this is on top of the fact that we already hit a new all time high before the halving. And this cycle, we have the Bitcoin ETFs that can support Bitcoin's price. So everything is shaping up for this cycle to be a really strong one for Bitcoin. So I'm really optimistic about the price of Bitcoin. I maintain that I think Bitcoin can reach above 100,000 before the end of the year, which is saying a lot considering there's only three months left. Now, another stock that Alhamdulillah, we have seen recovery in, in a big way, Piedmont Lithium today was up more than 10%. And I mentioned before that I thought that there was going to be a recovery in lithium prices in Q4. And it is shaping up or at least as of now it is looking like this will be the case. Citi in fact came out with a report not too long ago predicting a 20 to 30% increase in the price of lithium in the next quarter. So they raised their near term price target for lithium carbonate to 14,000 metric tons, 14,000 per metric ton and for hydroxide to 14,200 per ton from a prior forecast of 10,000 tons for both products. So this is a pretty substantial upgrade in their price target for lithium and lithium miners like Bitcoin miners are going to exaggerate that move in either direction. So those go up more because they have fixed costs. So a lot of the price difference is going to go straight to their bottom line now with Piedmont Lithium. And we also had news that they were going to be raising money. And I think that is some of the fears that the market had regarding the liquidity of that particular company. So it actually ended up being a bullish event for them. Now something that is important to keep in mind is that commodities like our Bitcoin miners, commodity plays tend to not be long term investments. It's typically a good idea to have a thesis when that thesis plays out, get out of that position. So it's very likely that we get out of our Piedmont Lithium once we're inshallah in profit to a satisfactory amount. Over the next 6 to 12 months, we'll be keeping an eye out on the supply changes and whether the current trend of decreasing supply, decreasing output continues or supply tends to pick up again. And therefore we can expect prices may have some headwinds that they need to deal with. So Citi says that they do not expect the rally to have follow through as higher prices could very well trigger a supply response. Let's see if that happens. And this potentially leads to loosening of lithium balances. So we already saw that the largest battery manufacturer in the world, lithium battery, China's CATL, the world's biggest battery producer, was suspending a mine that accounts for 5 to 6% of global supply. And this has helped lithium miners a lot since it puts pressure on the price upwards, that is upward pressure. And Bloomberg analysts say that the mine is important not just for size, but because it is owned by a battery producer and was thought to be less likely candidate for closure. And the project produces lithium for lipidolite, a low grade ore that emerged as a major source of the metal in recent years and has helped fuel the current glut. There is stronger signaling effect from CATL's cut. As the world's largest battery producer, its mine side suspension reinforces the expectation of a prolonged weakness in downstream demand. So this is going to spook a lot of lithium producers out of increasing their output, increasing their supply when you have the largest, most important battery producer cutting down even on the mine side, they're cutting production and signaling that they have low confidence in the level of demand. So this is good for us because it means that supply is set to contract at least for the foreseeable future until we get a real recovery in lithium prices. And that's what I've been saying all along. The current price of lithium does not support increased supply. Eventually there needs to be increased supply. The trend is very clear as it relates to EVs, as it relates to battery storage, and therefore the price has to go up. And we positioned ourselves accordingly, took advantage of the weakness in lithium stocks. Like I said, if you'd like to join our membership, then make sure to do. Link is in the description. Take some questions. Do you have a private one-on-one class? You can sign up for a consultation and we can use that consultation for whatever you'd like. Hi, can I ask you something about crypto? Yeah, go ahead. Khaled says, Salam Rakan. Walaikum Salam. Looking at PIF portfolio, I've noticed strong connection between assets related to Bitcoin. Shouldn't we consider diversifying the portfolio to minimize potential Bitcoin risk? I think that if we had no sense of timing, then that would make sense. But I think that in order to get outsized returns, which is what we are aiming for, it makes sense to be cognizant of timing, when to be heavy in certain assets based on their cycles and when to pull back in exposure. And so right now, as I've demonstrated in this live, we are very bullish on Bitcoin in the next few months here. And therefore we have concentrated exposure that we won't have in later parts of the cycle, Inshallah. Don't mention our position holdings in the chat, as this is one of the benefits to being a PIF member. So I'd kindly ask that our portfolio not be shared publicly. I do share some positions as you have noticed publicly, but we do want people to become members and join our community. So try not to publish too much of our positions and our portfolios, please. If you did find this live, beneficial, useful, do leave a like. I'd really appreciate that. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.