The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

I'm Buying the Dip | Live Analysis

Rakaan Kayali

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I'm Buying the Dip | Live Analysis
In this episode we will cover:

  • Introduction & Market Overview
  • Liquidity & Market Impact Insights
  • Buy the Dip Strategy
  • U.S. Market Indices Update
  • Commodities Update
  • Inflation Outlook & Fed Response
  • Major News Event Impacting Markets
  • Strike Overview: Dock Workers' Demands
  • Discussion on Automation & Jobs
  • Economic & Political Implications of the Strike
  • Middle East Conflict Updates
  • Bitcoin September Performance
  • Altcoin Market Trends
  • TT Token Caution
  • General Investing Advice
  • Audience Q&A: Dogecoin & Cryptocurrency Insights

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today we are seeing the impact of one major news event really on the markets and perhaps the nervousness from the possibility of another. We'll talk about those and I think the most useful insight from this live will be the I do see that the impact of these events will be short-lived and that the general thesis for the market that liquidity is increasing and therefore the asset prices should follow. That still holds and therefore what we're experiencing right now is I think a perfect buy the dip opportunity and that is where you have the general macro pointing bullish but a news event that causes a temporary dip in the markets. And so let's talk about that in this slide. By the way, if you find these lives beneficial, do leave a like. I'd really appreciate that and subscribe. Become a member of our community. Links to do so is in the description. If you'd like a personal consultation, the link to do so is in the description as well. So let's look at the markets right now and the indexes and what they're telling us. So in the US, the S&P is down a percentage point. The Dow is down half a percentage point. NASDAQ is down 1.7. So definitely a red day and something that I think is not too unexpected given how strong of a run we have been on and the fact that we're really at all-time highs with all of these indexes or right near all-time highs and equities have been impacted by the news events that we're going to talk about. Crypto has been impacted on account that it is a risk on asset, considered a risk on asset. Now commodities, a lot of commodities have benefited from the heightened attention. Crude oil is up close to 5% and other commodities are up as well. Now, what this means, especially considering the news event that we're seeing is that there may be additional inflationary pressures, but the good side to this is that how the Fed was saying after COVID that the inflation was transitory. In this case, I do think if we see a tick up in inflation that this will actually be transitory and it's likely that the Fed will see it as such and therefore we may not see dramatic policy changes even if we do get a tick up in inflation. But you've probably heard about this. It's probably not a surprise, but the news event that's causing the markets to head southward is the fact that dock workers at ports from Maine all the way to Texas are going on strike and the strike started today. We haven't seen a strike like this since 1977. The strike at the time lasted some 40 days. Let's hope that this doesn't happen again. It doesn't last as long as it did last time. Basically, dock workers are trying to have it in their contracts that they're going to get a 77% raise in their wages over the next six years. So close to a doubling. Now, the offer, as I understand it, that was made to them was a increase of 50%. So 50% versus 77%. That doesn't seem like too wide of a gap to close. And I think that it will be closed. And also what the dock workers are asking for is a halt to automation so that they can basically secure their jobs. That, to me, I think is very unreasonable. And also, why would you even want to do that? If a robot can do your job better than you can do, why do you want to do that job? Wouldn't you feel useless? Wouldn't you feel, I don't know, like a child that is playing a game just without, there's no purpose. There's no reason for you to be doing what you're doing, spending your time doing what you're doing, considering a robot could do it way better. And how long do you think you can stop that tide for? Automation is coming. So why not adapt to it sooner rather than later? It just surprises me how some people think, really, in terms of their jobs. Why would you want to be in a job that could be automated? Wouldn't you want to feel useful? Isn't that one of the main points, main sought-after outcomes of having a job, being useful? Apparently not. Apparently for some people, they just want a paycheck regardless of if what they're doing is actually needed or not. And that's a sad state of affairs to be in as a human being. At minimum, you should have a goal as a person while on this to be useful. But I think that dockworkers have been, are being manipulated basically by unions. By the way, I was trying to find this, the image for, I guess the union boss. And really it should be called the union boss because unions basically end up being like mafias and gangs really. And they strong arm people and there's no value add that they bring. They just cause prices to go up. And they tend to be just like slimy scum and no offense. And what they do is completely self-serving. They couldn't care less about workers. They're just trying to, they're trying to get as much money out of the situation as they can. And they're trying to stay relevant. And they don't want, obviously they don't want automation and they've convinced workers that they don't want automation either. Even though I think it's in the best interest of workers to have automation where automation makes sense and for the workers to actually be retrained and find more fulfilling jobs. I think it's in their best interest for them to do so. But the union mafia has convinced them that's not in their best interest. And long story short, I think that this will be solved and there's a lot of urgency to solve it. Number one, it's very costly for the economy. It's going to cost close to 4 billion every day. And the longer it goes on, the more expensive it becomes. And also the elections are coming up. And so the current administration, the party that's currently in power is going to have a really strong incentive to try and see where it can exert pressure. And it's going to exert it in order to get a deal done. Like I said, if you look at the terms, it does seem like both parties are close, even if they're not at agreement yet. And I think they'll eventually get an agreement. And that's why I think that now is this dip that we're seeing. And I was close to pulling the trigger on buying a couple of things before, but I just thought that the momentum was too strong downwards and I didn't want to catch a falling knife. But this is why I think that this is a good buy the dip situation, because this is a news event that, yes, is causing understandable nervousness in the market. But I think it's happening in a larger context that is bullish for asset prices. Now, the second issue that we have that's impacting markets is that it does appear that the conflict in the Middle East is escalating. And perhaps this is hot off the wire. Iran is preparing for a strike on Israel. I doubt this is the case, even if there are some intelligence reports saying this, I could be wrong. But the reason why I doubt this is the case is because in April, Iran had a full effort attack on Israel and the outcome was zero, zero casualties in Israel. And Iran, I don't know, spent half its GDP trying to carry out that attack. So I don't know what they're going to do different this time. And as a cost to an attack, I think Israel will take full advantage and probably, probably hit their nuclear project and likely wipe it out entirely. They've been waiting for a reason to do now seems like the perfect time, since it does appear that Hezbollah has been, for all intents and purposes, defanged, and is no longer a threat to them. And that was the major sort of card that Iran could play. But now it doesn't have that card. So Israel, and its response will likely see this as an opportunity to end Iran's nuclear project. And so I doubt Iran will strike Israel, I don't see what Iran has to gain from that, except further proving that it's not capable of waging an effective attack. But we'll see. Who knows. So the asset that I wanted to focus a bit more on crypto in this live. Now we are coming out of September. And I think it's noteworthy here that the September that we just came out of was the best September on record for Bitcoin. So we were up 7%, 7.3% in September. And October historically is a much better September. The average return for Bitcoin in October is 21%. Whereas the average in September is minus 3%. So if we can get a record-breaking September, perhaps we can get a record-breaking October. That would be nice. Now, altcoins have pulled back a lot as a result of the recent pullback in risk assets in general. However, we are seeing tokens like FTT perform well. And I just want to touch upon this because I don't want you guys to lose any money here. And I want you guys to understand what's going on. So X, the shamed brokerage that was using customer deposits to gamble basically in the crypto markets, had a token called FTT. And very understandably, that token went to zero once the brokerage that issued it was found out to be a fraud. Recently, in the last seven days, this token is up 67%. In the last month, it's up 80%. I want to caution against gambling with these tokens. And by the way, the reason for this is our rumors that there is going to be some payback to creditors from FTX. So perhaps this token was just shorted like crazy. And the positive news that FTX was paying back creditors caused a bit of a bump that was exaggerated by the enormous amounts of shorts that were shorting FTT token. And that explains the bump. And then the very gullible crypto investors came in and piled on. Perhaps that is one explanation. No one can really say for sure what's going on here. But I will remind the viewers of Luna and Celsius. And they both had similar fates where their tokens went to near zero. And after they went to near zero, they had some pumps along the way, different random events. But they went back to zero. So trying to make money off of something like this FTT token is like trying to pick up dollars in front of a steamroller. And it's a very risky thing. So I would not try to play that game. This is, for all intents and purposes, a dead token. People want to gamble. That's up to them. But the most important thing about investing is never to lose capital. That's the priority number one. Do not lose your capital. And I see a lot of unjustified hype around the latest mover in crypto that I think that people should be worried about. So with that, let's take some questions. Am I still bullish on Doge? Yes, I am. And the reason why I'm bullish on Doge is because of my overall understanding of cryptocurrency, which is that the value add of cryptocurrency is that it can introduce artificial scarcity, basically, which I think can be used in many ways, including preserving purchasing power, preserving value under certain conditions. And Dogecoin has the same code base as Bitcoin, has a small and decreasing inflation rate over time. And it's much smaller in market cap compared to Bitcoin. What we've seen is that in bullish regimes in the market, Dogecoin goes up more than Bitcoin does. And considering, I think that this is the stage of the market that we're entering, that is a more bullish regime, I think Dogecoin will perform better. Now, it's important to sell when you think that the bullish regime is close to or nearing the top, because when things go badly, it goes down more than others as well. So that's something to keep in mind. Now, we're also looking at other alts. And we want to be positioned. And this pullback actually is an opportunity that Inshallah will take advantage of. We want to be positioned well for, I think, the bull run that will be primarily supported by liquidity levels rising in a way that we haven't seen since 2020, really. And that's something that I went over in yesterday's live if you haven't seen that. Are there other questions? Sheikh Adnan, Assalamu Alaikum, Walaikum Assalam. Brother Khan, Assalamu Alaikum. Rashad, what is your take after jolts? I haven't looked at jolts. How do you do short selling in a halal way? Shorts, I'm comfortable saying, are not halal. And I'm not really sure how to create a synthetic short that's halal, really. Although it's an interesting, I think, thought experiment. Abraham says Iran will never fight Israel. Yeah, I tend to agree with that. I don't really think that it has much to gain in terms of entering direct conflict with Israel. There's enough, I think, gullible, really, Arab Shiites in the area that will prove to be more than willing to fight on its behalf, for whatever reason. And so I don't see Iran's incentive to change that policy. Predictions for Solana till the end of this year? I do think that it will probably end this year in the 200s, somewhere in the 200s. So right now it's at 149. So I think there's a healthy return to be had here on Solana. But it won't be the fastest mover. I have not checked out ACMR. I will, though, I promise you, I will. If you're a PIF member, are you a PIF member, Faisal? But I'll see how many, after I look at it, I'll see whether it would be good for Alive or perhaps for PIF members. Brother, did you check Bitcoin and M1 Halal or not? Brother, if M1 is holding Bitcoin, that's something you can check. If M1 is holding Bitcoin, then it's fine. If it's just holding derivatives, then so it's not actually holding Bitcoin. It's holding representations of Bitcoin derivatives from Bitcoin. Then no, I would stay away from that. But if it is holding Bitcoin, then I think it's comfortable to buy Bitcoin from them. All right, guys, got to go. I have a bunch of a bunch of research reports that I'm very excited about. If you haven't, if you haven't and a bunch of buys really to take advantage of this if you haven't become a PIF member and you would like additional insights, then do become a PIF member. Link is in the description. Leave a like, subscribe. Love you all. Take care until next time. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.