The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Opportunity Everywhere, Piedmont Soars 🤑

• Rakaan Kayali

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Opportunity Everywhere, Piedmont Soars 🤑
In this episode we will cover:

  • Introduction & Bitcoin Price Update
  • Geopolitical and Economic Events Impact on Markets
  • U.S. Port Strike and Its Implications
  • Market Strategy: Cash Reserves for Dips
  • Strike on Israel and Market Reactions
  • Bitcoin and Crypto Market Update
  • Commodities Overview: Oil, Gold, Silver, and Lithium
  • Iran-Israel Conflict Analysis
  • VIX Volatility Index and Market Resilience
  • Tesla Delivery Miss and Stock Impact
  • Tesla's Future Outlook with Robotaxi
  • Piedmont Lithium Stock Surge
  • Short Squeeze in Lithium Stocks
  • Audience Q&A Session

CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, October 2nd, and wow, these are some pretty historical times that we're going through. Bitcoin is at $61,900, it bounced back after being in the $60,000 range yesterday. And we have a lot of geopolitical events happening, economic events happening, and they're impacting the markets. Markets are unsure of themselves, where should they go? And understandably, if we look at the S&P 500, it's flat versus yesterday. It's down on the week. Same with the Dow, up a bit, less than a tenth of a percentage point. Weekly, it's up half a percentage point. The NASDAQ is up less than half of a percentage point. On the week, it is down. And this is all because of the port strike that we're witnessing in the U.S. So the entire East Coast, including the Gulf, is on strike. And this is going to affect prices in a big way. There's no going around that. If you look at the demands, what the port workers are demanding versus, you know, what's being offered to them, it's not a big difference between those two things. The main sort of hurdle may be what relates to automation and limiting automation. You have the port workers asking for a limit on automation, which I think is kind of ridiculous demand to have. I'm not really sure how they're going to get over that hurdle. But as far as pay increases, they're asking for a 77% increase in their wages over the next six years. They're being offered 50% increase. I think on the wages, there might be some wiggle room there. So maybe if they, the port authorities give as it relates to the wages, offer something there and retain some flexibility with regards to automation and introducing that, maybe they can get to a middle ground there. But this port, this strike will have impact on the markets. And this is really why we keep dry powder, why we keep some cash on the side. It's for events like this where the macro is bullish, but there is an event that causes a dip in the market. And so I think now is a good time to take advantage of that. I did do a little buying this morning. I was going to do some buying yesterday, but after the strike on Israel yesterday, I knew that there was probably going to be some choppiness in the market. Probably there isn't going to be a rebound until we see the retaliation. And some people are expecting this on Friday. Perhaps it happens sooner than that. We will see. Just look at prices. As we mentioned, I went through the major indexes. As it relates to crypto, we did get a bit of a bounce back off of the low yesterday, which was in the 60,000 range. We're now closer to 62,000. On the year, we're still up 126%. So even after everything we've been through as an asset, it has performed quite well. The rest of crypto is feeling it. We've broken the momentum that we had prior to these two major news events happening. As it relates to commodities, some of them have been doing quite well in response to these events. So you can see oil is up. And on the weekly, it is up after having been in a downward spiral for a long time. And in fact, year over year, oil is down close to 20%. And that was actually helping us out with our inflation battle. So we'll see how long this maintains. Gold is down on the day, but monthly it's up 6%. Year over year, it's up 45%. So gold has been doing quite well. Not as good as Bitcoin, but quite well. Silver is up 50% year over year. Now lithium, we're finally getting some relief on lithium prices. And that has affected one of our positions in a really big way. We'll talk about that later in the live. We're up close to 3%. Weekly, up a little more than 4%. But year over year, we were down 54% on the price of lithium. That has impacted lithium mining companies in a big way. So we're finally getting some relief on that. And this relief has been exaggerated in a big way. And we'll talk about why that happened for some of the lithium mining stocks. So yesterday, it looks like Iran attacked Israel. As I mentioned yesterday, I didn't really see what Iran had to gain from this. Considering it was going to be used as a reason for, I think, Israel. And perhaps with the participation of the United States, maybe the UK. To basically end their program or retard its progress by many years. And the attack yesterday really caused no casualties. Except for one Palestinian man who was killed, I guess by accident. May Allah have mercy on his soul. Always sad to see innocent people getting caught up in this. I'm not really sure what Iran, I guess it's just to appease some of the voices that were calling for retaliation. But strategically, either you do it or you don't. I don't really see the wisdom in throwing half a punch. If you've decided it's time to fight, then there's no reason to throw half a punch. You might as well fight seriously. When you send missiles that appear to have not really exploded. So they didn't really have explosives attached. I guess they were meant as a threat. But Hezbollah tried this for the last 12 months. And we saw what happened to their leader. This is really not a good strategy. And it often acts as a vaccine for the targeted party. Because they see what you're capable of. And so they learn from that. And they're able to adjust to it without actually falling ill. And without actually having an actual crisis. When you hit your enemy in a non-lethal way. In a way that doesn't really impact them. Then you've essentially provided them with a vaccine. And I think that this is what happened here. Now Israel has information. Additional information about something that could be followed in the future. And it can adjust its defenses accordingly. So this seems to me just a completely unwise strategy. But that's what happened. The VIX is over the last 5 days. So the volatility index for the market. That's up 23%, close to 24%. And yet the market really hasn't seen that dramatic of a pullback. So this is unique times that we're in. We're seeing the VIX going up. But not the dramatic pullback that you would expect. Now granted the VIX isn't at, if we zoom out a bit. It isn't at crisis levels. But it is above the average at least year to date. And so this could be interpreted as a sign of just how strong the macro environment is. Because of the monetary easing that is happening. And is expected to happen. So that even when the VIX is going up to the tune of 25% in the last 5 days. We're still seeing the markets being rather resilient. If we look at today's movers. We had Tesla down because of their deliveries miss. We'll talk about that in a second. But we had a lot of places where there was strength. So we saw some strength in that sector. Technology, there's a lot of names that are doing fine. Microsoft is down less than 1 percentage point. Oracle is up. Adobe is up. Palantir, Crowd. Apple is basically flat. Tesla as we mentioned is down. Eli Lilly is up close to a percent. Energy is doing really well obviously. Because of the oil prices that we covered. So all in all not the capitulation that two major news events, adverse news events. May have caused in other environments. So here it is. Tesla is down currently 3%. Not too much. And I think that's pretty understandable. Now it's at 250 right now. As far as the year goes. They're still doing quite well. We have the last time we were at these levels. Was in July. We fell down to sub 200 afterwards. And then we recovered again. And then before that we're at these levels in December. Now what's going to really matter here. As it relates to Tesla. Is when they report earnings. Aside from obviously the Robotaxi event. Which is very highly anticipated. What's really going to matter here is the profit margins that they report. Gross and net. So investors are going to want to see profit margins. At least not contracting as they have been. And because deliveries is going to give us a pretty good idea of what the revenue is likely to be. But what we don't know yet are the margins. So that's going to be a really important data point that comes from earnings. So let's dive a bit deeper into the Tesla delivery numbers. So Tesla posted its third quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on Wednesday. That's today. The stock fell as much as 3.7%. Here are the key numbers. Total deliveries Q3 2024, 462,890. Total production Q3 2024, 469,796. Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310. So total deliveries were 462,890. Actuals were 463,310. Now if my math is right. That's 420 vehicles difference. That's not a big deal. That's not something that I would necessarily worry about. Certainly not something that I would discount the stock dramatically for. It's 420. It's 420 vehicles. So the relatively muted impact that has befallen Tesla stock price is understandable, I think. Deliveries are not defined in Tesla's financial disclosures. But are the closest approximations to units sold. A lot about other companies. They also reported that they deployed 6.9 gigawatt hours of energy storage products in the quarter. And shares of Tesla have climbed 32% in the third quarter, erasing their loss for the year. The stock is now up almost 4% in 2024, trailing the NASDAQ, which has gained 19%. They have been lagging the overall sort of tech scene. Tesla stock has, and I do expect that this gap is going to be shrunk. And then Tesla will eventually, I think, outperform the NASDAQ, Inshallah. Now, there may be some holding period between now and then. We're in, we're waiting. But I think that if you have a clear idea of what they're trying to do with Robotaxis, and what that means for their margins, for their top line, for their bottom line, I think that it is a worthy hold. Speaking of worthy holds that we held on for a long time and only recently started paying off. Piedmont Lithium is up 20% today. So as I mentioned, one of the reasons for that is the increase in the price of lithium. Now, one of the reasons why I chose Piedmont Lithium as opposed to other lithium companies is because they are based in the United States. A lot of the operations that they have, their main operation in North Carolina in the United States, they don't have to worry about the port workers going on strike. They're operating in the United States. They can provide lithium needs in the United States without having to go through customs. So that's a real advantage that they have. This is, I think, partly why this stock is being revalued by the market. We also mentioned the price of lithium is going up. And lithium miners are essentially a leverage play on the price of lithium because they have a lot of fixed expenses. So a lot of the increase in price is going to go. The majority of their expenses are fixed. A lot of the increase in price is going to go directly to their bottom line. That's going to impact the price of the stock a lot. But also as it relates to Piedmont Lithium and lithium stocks generally, they tend to be heavily shorted. Now, what are we talking about here? If we look at Piedmont Lithium, the short float, so shorts compared to the float of shares as a percentage is close to 19%. So 19% of the available shares are being shorted. So what does this cause? It causes a short squeeze when there is a sustained recovery in the price of the stock. So this is really good for us. This is why it's moving as much as it has been moving as of late. And I think the price of lithium can go up even more. As I mentioned, I am expecting something into the tune of 30% recovery in the price of lithium in the fourth quarter. And so this should impact Piedmont Lithium in a positive way, inshallah. And the worker strike in the docks may even expedite the recovery of this particular position, inshallah. Let's take some questions very quickly. Abdul says, Salam all, reminded to like the video. Thank you very much, Abdul. I really appreciate that. Do the video, guys. He says, most of us joined PIF after watching these lives. Let's help the algorithm. Thank you so much. I really appreciate that. That's very nice of you. Rashad says, Salam Arkan, what is your take on solid state battery? Do you think it will have its moment sooner rather than later? I think battery technology is, you should expect it to improve all the time. I don't think that lithium is going to not be a primary component in these batteries anytime soon. So I wouldn't, it's not something that I would necessarily worry about. That being said, keep in mind our, as it relates to commodity plays generally, as I've always said, these are trades as opposed to longer term investment. So I think until something comes out that replaces lithium, I think that's probably medium, longer term. So I don't think that this will affect our play with Piedmont lithium specifically. Are we considering investing in the uranium industry at some point? It's possible that I do a play in uranium, but it's a lot more likely that I reintroduce a position for us in solar. Because when you look at the growth of solar, it is quite impressive. Actually, let me pull this up for you guys. I saw it yesterday. And so hopefully I can find it again. It was a chart shared on X with regards to the growth of solar. And it's, I think, pretty instructive if you're trying to invest in the fastest horse. So let's see here. Hopefully I can find it. In the meantime, let me take other questions so that there isn't any awkward silence in the live. So what do you think about Humasight stock? Perhaps I'll do a deep dive sometime. Assalamu alaikum, brother. Hope everyone is doing well. Thanks, Abdul. I appreciate it. Central banks around the world will follow U.S. and China. Yeah, probably. Most major economies are going to be doing monetary easing, I think. That's certainly what they've signaled. There's just delayed the inevitable to 2025 and bigger bubble burst. I'm not sure what you mean by that. Assalamu alaikum. I like the new market pulse name update. Okay, great. I appreciate it, Taskeen. I always have to think about every day, what should I name the live? And so I figured initially when I'm just scheduling them, I'll give them a generic name. And then after, maybe I'll change the title to what the majority of the time we talked about. Assalamu alaikum. I couldn't understand the advantage of being a PIF member. Could you please tell me? And if I have a thousand euro to invest, is it worth to be a member? Walaikum assalam, brother Yusuf. The advantages of PIF membership, you get to follow my portfolios whenever I buy or sell. You get to follow additional deep dives that I perhaps won't do live in public. And you also get a watch list with buy below and sell above prices for assets that I'm keeping an eye on. In addition to the ones that I'm invested in, get access to our community, which I think is amazing. Probably the best community out there because everyone is so helpful and we support one another. And we also have monthly reviews of our positions and other benefits as well. If you have a thousand euro, I wouldn't expect to, I think it's a good start. I think you should start earlier rather than later. And I think that the lessons that you learn are less expensive when you start with a smaller amount than when you start with a larger amount. So I do encourage everyone to start sooner rather than later. Now, when you start, I wouldn't expect to starting with a thousand euros. I wouldn't start, I wouldn't expect to become rich from that anytime soon. But I, I think the lessons that you learn will be extremely valuable and you can use inshallah throughout your investing journey and, and as your balance increases as well. Hopefully that answers your question. Abdul says, I earned five times the cost of membership in two months by just following the public stocks from the YouTube channel. Then I joined, I'd say it's worth it to anyone wondering. That's great. Abdul, I'm really happy to hear that. Azur says, Salam brother. Thank you for the useful videos. So I think Solana, so asking about my prediction for Solana, I do think Solana will reach the two hundreds before the end of the year. If we do Forex trading with spot trading broker, is it Halal? I did cover Forex in a different video. So kindly check that out. All right. This is the second question I have about Humasight stock. Is that a big mover today? Why are people asking about Humasight? No, it's not. It's up less than 4% today. Has a market cap of 682 million. Let's see here. Is this correct that it has no revenue? Is that correct guys? I'm just looking at, sorry, I'm not showing you guys what I'm looking at. I'm just taking my initial sort of pass through. I'm showing here no revenue. Is that correct? If it is correct, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it's probably early to be considering this. Cash and investments, 93. Market cap is 680. Losing 56 million. At least it did last quarter. So far, nothing to be excited about here. Financials are pretty terrible, unless you have some insider information on this stock. I'm not really that interested. Qasim says, do elite members get signals for cryptocurrency investing trading? Signals is typically associated with day trading. We don't really do day trading. But elite members get all the benefits of premium membership in that we show people what we're buying, what we're selling when we do it. And so hopefully that answers your question. The advantage of elite is that you get access to the lessons that we give with regards to investing. Salam brother, I'm 19, paying full PIF. What's up? All of these questions about PIF membership is too expensive for me. Could you please implement monthly membership? We used to have monthly membership. And the fact of the matter is, if you want to get in investing, you want to learn investing. I think having a minimum of a yearly commitment is required. A lot of people may get in for a month and things don't go their way and they go away from continuing to invest or have a bad experience. And then they put off investing. So that's something I want to avoid. If you're serious about investing, I think a year commitment is a good start to learning the lessons you need to learn and getting started. Inshallah. What are the long term and short term impacts of Iran's retaliation on the oil markets? I think the impact will be short term. I think in the short term, maybe we get an increase in the price of oil. But the general trend here is downwards. Any new stock you're investigating? Yeah, there's a few. But obviously, we try to invest in top 1% of assets in terms of quality. So we're going to look at a lot before we find the best ones. Thoughts about Shiba Inu and Pepe? So I've stuck with proof of work cryptocurrencies. And I understand some of the returns on these other meme coins that are not proof of work have been quite intriguing. I understand that. But I'm just not comfortable with the thought of and the potential abuse that comes with proof of stake. So I've stuck with proof of work. This is how my mind works. And perhaps not everyone agrees with that. And that's totally fine. But this is how my mind works. And I like to invest in things based on my conviction. Because when I invest based on my conviction, I also am able to hold when other people may be swayed by headlines, hype or whatever. If I've developed my own conviction, I have my own understanding. And this is my advice to you. If I have my own conviction, my own understanding, and I'm convinced with the thesis around an asset, I have no problem with holding and understanding when to buy and when to sell, regardless of all the other noise that may be out there in the market. Abdullah says, Salaam Arkaan. So Gaotu Touch 2 is moving big currently, affected by China monetary easing? Yeah, China has been on a quite a tear recently. Their stock market has been. How's it doing today? Shanghai? Wow. Up 8%. Weekly, it's up 21%. So yeah, the monetary easing there has really has put their equity markets on a rocket ship. And a lot of stocks, Chinese exchanges are doing extremely well. Shall we get any exposure to any Chinese back stock in the growth portfolio? So I've generally shied away from investing in Chinese stocks, just because of their potential association with the Chinese Communist Party and their adverse stance towards weaker Muslims and Muslim Chinese population. Salaam Arkaan, would you consider lessons for elite PIF about taxes and what strategies could be done to avoid paying too much or, on the other hand, benefiting from tax benefits due to sell at a loss? Yeah, absolutely. I think that's a good topic. Rashad says it is biotech, no revenue. Yeah, so I think biotech is going to do the more risky end of the spectrum, is going to do well when the monetary environment goes towards easing. Certainly, this is what happened in 2021. That being said, I think investing based on macro is not what I generally like to do. I have to be convinced that this company is going to make it. And with biotech, it's very difficult to do that before any revenue. SMCI, we actually took a look at SMCI a while ago and we decided that it was not worth the investment. And alhamdulillah, since then, it has basically... I just found that... We actually went through the deep dive with elite members. The main reason why we found its valuation to be rich, too rich, is because of the margins. And the margins were just not where they needed to be in order to command that type of valuation. And so it does seem like the market is agreeing with us at this point. Humicide is awaiting FDA approval for its groundbreaking bioengineered human tissue. That's very interesting. But I don't have any sort of inside information on this. It could be a coin toss. But it does seem like we're talking about a $680 million market cap for a company that has no revenue. So it does seem like some upside is already priced in. Unless someone has a particular insight that gives us an edge here, I'm not going to flip the coin on it. Maybe it turns out to be fantastic. But I just don't have any unique insight into it that would justify me investing money in it and then influencing others to do it as well. Qasim Saeed says, You are the best in terms of providing the insights of investments. Oh, thank you so much, Qasim. That's really awesome to hear. Thank you for that compliment. I appreciate it. Irvin says, As-salamu alaykum, brother. I have calculated my finances and found I would invest 200-250 euros monthly. And I was intending to invest in SPUS ETF. Would you recommend anything else at 250 a month? So I think if you want like a very hands-off approach, something like SPUS will do the job. But that being said, especially when you're in the building wealth part of your wealth building journey, I think concentration makes a lot of sense. Rather than splitting your $250, assuming you're starting from nothing, but rather than splitting your $250 on 100 stocks, I think if you have one stock that you think you have a lot of conviction in buying that, I think that makes more sense in the beginning when you're building your wealth. And so concentration builds wealth, diversification preserves it. But this assumes that what you're doing when you're investing in one or two or a very few number of stocks. So it just depends on where you, what you prioritize, basically. If you prioritize low effort, you're not really trying to beat the market. You're totally fine with what the market gives you. Then something like SPUS does the trick. If you want to expedite your wealth building process, I think then having a little more knowledge in investing and maybe cutting down on the number of names that you have and just investing in the highest conviction names, I think is probably more advantageous. I was telling my brother about.