The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Breaking Opportunities: Hims & Bitdeer in the Spotlight!

Rakaan Kayali

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Breaking Opportunities: Hims & Bitdeer in the Spotlight!
In this episode we will cover:

  • Introduction & Market Overview
  • Macroeconomic Overview and Opportunities
  • Stock Market Performance & Opportunities
  • BRICS Settlement System: Bypassing SWIFT
  • Bitcoin as an Alternative to SWIFT
  • Solar Growth & Investing Opportunities
  • Commodities Update: Oil & Lithium
  • Short-Term Market Tensions
  • Hymns & Hers Stock Down 10%: Analysis
  • Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Weight Loss Medications
  • FDA Decision on Weight Loss Drugs and Impact
  • Hymns & Hers Long-Term Outlook
  • Hymns & Hers Financial Performance
  • BitDeer Bitcoin Mining Update
  • Q&A Session

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you are doing well. Today is Thursday, October 3rd, and we are currently in the midst of geopolitical tensions and a port strike that are making it tough for the markets and making opportunities really very abound. If you look at Bitcoin today, we are at 60,600. So we may get a five-handle on the price of Bitcoin after having thought that we are out of the woods. But the macroeconomic thesis still holds for us. Liquidity, inshallah, will be increasing in Q4. We have some bumps along the way in the events that I just mentioned, but I think we'll get through them, inshallah, and we will get back to our upward momentum. So really, instead of saying the markets are down today, let's go with opportunities abound today. In terms of stocks and what the indexes are doing, if we look at the S&P, flat, Dow Jones down half a percentage point, Nasdaq is up a quarter percentage point, nothing to write home about. One of the things that I wanted to mention today was the fact that 159 countries signed on to the BRIC settlement system, which means that they will be bypassing SWIFT, which was the only game in town for the longest time. It was a club that Western countries used to impose sanctions on other countries. And basically now there is an alternative. And so this is an indication that we are moving towards a multipolar world. It's also an indication that the prominence of the US dollar is in decline and will likely be that way for the foreseeable future. Now, an alternative to both BRIC's settlement system and SWIFT is the Bitcoin network. I don't know, have you heard of it? Yesterday after our live and me mentioning during the live chart, I wanted to show you guys with regards to the growth of solar, here it is. So annual growth in world electricity production from 2013 and 2023, if you look at where did that growth come from, it came primarily from solar, by far the most popular method for generating electricity in terms of new electricity and growth in that sector. Second is wind with around half as much growth. So I think the opportunity here as an investor, putting our investing hats on, the opportunity here is to find something. If we believe that this secular trend will continue, and I believe it will, to find a good solar company to invest in. And that's something that I want to do. Perhaps I will replace our lithium play with it when the time comes. By the way, if you're wondering how commodities are doing today, including lithium, oil is up close to 5%. We're now close to 20, 25% off of our lows that we hit in last month. And if we look at lithium, again, another up day, which is quite uncommon for this commodity, especially in recent history. The more the port strike continues, the more and the more geopolitical tensions continue, the more we are likely to see this trend continue. Now, enough with the macro, we know what the macro is all about. I think it's small or short term tensions, obstacles that will eventually solve themselves. Let's look at some of the opportunities that are presenting themselves in the market. So Hems and Hers Health, I've spoken about this company before on this channel, down today, close to 10%. Why is it down? One of the main boosts to the stock this year was the fact that they were offering a compound version of a weight loss medication that Eli Lilly and Ovor Nordisk were offering. And it was able to offer this because of a shortage that was deemed present with those medications. So reading this news event, so shares in telehealth group Hems and Hers dropped by 10% in pre-market U.S. trading on Thursday after federal drug regulators said Eli Lilly's blockbuster weight loss and diabetes medications are no longer considered to be in shortage. So even though Hems and Hers doesn't actually provide a compounded version of Eli Lilly's medication for weight loss, they do provide one for Novor Nordisk. And so I guess the sentiment in the market is that this is the first shoe to drop, so to speak. Eventually, the shortage in the Novor Nordisk medication is going to be declared ended. And perhaps this is going to affect Hems and Hers sales. They won't be able to sell the compounded version like they were because of the exception that was granted because of the shortage that was deemed in these medications. So for those who are unfamiliar, Eli Lilly, Novor Nordisk were struggling to keep up with soaring demand for their medications, which have shown to help patients lose up to 20% of their weight on average. And I actually heard something really interesting, which is that sales at supermarkets actually were impacted by these weight loss drugs. I'm not sure how accurate that is, but it just goes to show how much of an impact they have made. Hems and Hers was a compounder that benefited from the shortage. So because of the shortage, U.S. regulations have allowed businesses to make compound versions or close recreations of brand name medicines. Hems and Hers is one of those companies offering an injection of semaglutide, the key ingredient in Wigovi, $499 per month to patients on a 12 month plan. According to its website, the company said last month that it would begin selling compound version of Novor Nordisk's popular Wigovi drug to patients in certain professions for $99 a month, which is way cheaper than what was being offered by the brand names, Eli Lilly, Novor Nordisk. However, the Food and Drug Administration has now said that terzapatide, the medication Eli Lilly markets as ZepBound for weight loss and Monjaro for diabetes is no longer in short supply in the U.S., ending a shortage classification it first put in place in 2022. FDA confirmed with the drugs manufacturer that their stated product availability and manufacturing capacity can meet the present and projected national demand. Of course, they're going to want to say that because they don't want their medicine to be replicated for a lot cheaper and perhaps with very similar results. Intermittent localized supply disruptions as products move through the supply chain may occur. Analysts said that the news was a clear positive for Eli Lilly's manufacturing capabilities and puts pressure on compounded GLP-1s, referring to the class of drugs designed for weight management. With Lilly able to adequately supply current and future demand for terzapatide, we believe it could continue to grow market share in certain products as manufacturing continues to expand. Meanwhile, analysts noted that HIMS and HERS will not directly be impacted by the FDA's decision because it compounds semaglutide, the key ingredient in a rival weight loss drug made by Novor Nordisk. But they flagged the announcement as perhaps constraining HIMS and HERS' future total addressable market. This is all short term. The long term for HIMS, what was proven from their experience with this compounding drug is that they have the ability to provide personalized, online, cheap drugs for people in a very convenient way at very competitive prices. So, it was weight loss this time around. Next time it could be something else. And the opportunities for expansion for this company are really endless. If you look at the healthcare market in the United States, it's basically a fifth or a quarter of the entire GDP of the country. So, this is a huge opportunity and it is reflecting itself in the financials and performance of this company. So, I think that investors who are focused on FDA approvals, classification of a certain thing as being in shortage or not, and what that means in the short term for HIMS and HERS are missing the bigger picture, which is that the provision of medicines is going to be a lot more convenient in the future than it has been. We're not going to be going to CVS and Walgreens as much as we have been. It's going to be online. It's going to be personalized. And hopefully, it's going to be a lot cheaper than the options that we've been stuck with, especially in the United States. So, if you look at the numbers here for this company, quite impressive. Revenue is up 50% over the last year. Operating expense is up only 36%. So, margins are expanding. Net income is up. They were profitable in their last quarter. Compare it year over year. They weren't profitable last year. Profit margin is increasing. Everything is going up, triple digits, green. They have $227 million in cash. So, they're generating cash like crazy. I love online businesses because they often have really strong margins and their growth goes straight to the bottom line. And HIMS and HERS is getting more efficient in their operations. And they are making more and more money per every dollar in revenue that they generate. So, this news event does not change my thesis with regards to this company. Now, surprisingly, and this is a function of the macro being as bad as it is, Eli Lilly, I thought, would be up on the news. But Eli Lilly is actually quite flat today. Eli Lilly is also a company that I like. Now, to give you an idea of HIMS and HERS and the progress that they have been making. So, if you compare them with other telehealth providers, it does appear that they are the best of breed when you look at their market share and its progression over time. In their latest investor presentation, they're saying, consumers are increasingly drawn to our platform resulting in higher market share. This is very important. If I think that the future is telehealth providers, and I do, then I want to be in the best of breed of those telehealth providers. It does seem like HIMS is that best of breed company. As we break down barriers with high quality personalized solutions that are cost effective. That's really the name of the game here. Personalized solutions that are cost effective and convenient to access. Shares of observed total customers between primary telehealth providers. You can see HIMS and HERS in that dark purple color increasing between 2020, a market share of 14% to 2023, a market share of 49%. That's pretty darn impressive. Share of new observed customers between primary telehealth providers from 13% in 2020 to 54% in 2023. So, their market share is increasing. The size of the market is increasing as more and more people go to telehealth for their needs. This is a good recipe. This is why I'm saying opportunities abound. Because when you get days like this, where a news event that is limited in its time horizon and the impact that it has on a company, but the overall secular trends are all bullish, then this is an opportunity. And as I always say, I like companies that can make money in an easy way. There are hard ways to make money out there. There are easy ways to make money out there. It does appear that HIMS and HERS is an increasingly easy way to make money business. So, you can see that in their margins. So, adjusted EBITDA margin growth, Q1 2023, 3.2%. Q1 2024, 11.6%. That's going in the right direction. And I think it can go a lot higher than that. 41% subscriber growth, same period, 46% revenue growth. Okay. On to the next one, Bitdeer. Bitdeer is a Bitcoin miner that we've spoken about on this channel before. Bitdeer technology is down 2% today. Had an update today, which I thought was really encouraging. So, let's look at the updates. So, Bitdeer, a world-leading technology company for blockchain and high-performance computing, today announced its unaudited mining and operations update for September 2024. Self-mined Bitcoin, 164 Bitcoins, mining rig, manufacturing and R&D. Here's what's really unique about this company that you don't really see in other Bitcoin mining companies. So, sealed miner A1 mass production remains. So, this is their mining rig. And so, this is in the Bitcoin mining race. The picks and shovels are the mining rigs themselves. And Bitdeer is in the business of producing those mining rigs. And if we say that we are in the stages of a Bitcoin bull run, then these Bitcoin mining rigs are going to increase in value because they can produce more value. So, the margins on these rigs are set to be quite healthy, especially if you have the latest technology and competitive with the bleeding edge models that are out there. Sealed miner A1 mass production remains on schedule for Q4 2024, is expected to contribute 3.4 exa hash to Bitdeer's proprietary hash rate. That's really not the exciting part. The exciting part is sealed miner A1 mass production is on schedule. And so, they can sell these rigs to other miners. Deployment will align with the energization of the Texas location. Norway phase one is in Q4 2024 and early Q1 2025. So, some catalysts coming up here. A seal O2 chip initial tape out wafer, so that's the last step before manufacturing, were received from TSMC in mid-September. Initial verification and prototype testing indicated a 13.5 joules per tera hash. That's on the sort of bleeding edge here in terms of efficiency. This is their seal to mining chips while running at low voltage, ultra power saving mode. Seal O2 chips will be integrated in the seal miner A2 models. So, they're all already thinking about the next model and mass production is scheduled to commence in November 2024. So, they'll have the best rigs on the market, if not competitive with the best rigs on the market. Design of seal three, their next chip is third generation chip remains on track to tape out in Q4. So, that will be the last step before manufacturing of that with chip efficiency of 10 joules per tera hash. So, 13.5 that's basically the best you can get right now. 10 joules per tera hash only by the end of this year. So, this can be a really big money maker for this company. All of these Bitcoin mining companies are focused on Bitcoin and producing Bitcoin and the network is getting harder to mine in because additional hashing power is being added all the time. And the price of Bitcoin is very volatile. All of these Bitcoin miners are dealing with all of that headache. Whereas Bitdeer has an opportunity to just be the provider for all these Bitcoin miners that are working on mining, provide them with the hardware they need and they don't really have to worry about those other things that Bitcoin miners have to worry about. And they can have steady, consistent, increasing margins and income. And so, this is really the wrinkle that you get with Bitdeer. And I love how aggressive they are. Seal O2 chip initial tape out wafers in mid-September and then Seal O3 tape out in Q4 2024. So, only a couple months later. So, they're going from 13.5 joules per tera hash efficiency to 10 joules per tera hash. They're really executing extremely well. As it relates to their high-performance computing and AI, they've successfully completed their feasibility assessment. This was actually a big catalyst that I was waiting for. And it kind of was announced and no one really paid attention to it. In fact, the stock is down today and it's because of the macro mess that we're in. But they've completed their feasibility assessment of Bitdeer's sites in Ohio, reporting largely positive results regarding their suitability for Tier 3 HBC AI data centers. And I mentioned, as it relates to Bitcoin miners, this AI opportunity is something that has not been accounted for in many of their prices, especially with regards to the Bitcoin miners that have the most access to power, Bitdeer being either the number one or number two in that regard. And here you have an agency that took a look at their site in Ohio and said, yeah, this can be used for HBC and AI data centers. And the margins on those are way higher than the margins on Bitcoin mining. So this is actually a big deal. Now, the company has commenced discussions with development partners and potential end users for these sites. So another round of catalysts could be coming for Bitdeer if it signs a number of customers for its Ohio sites and the TLM group's feasibility assessments of Bitdeer's other global sites is ongoing. So we'll see if there are other sites will be able to accommodate HBC and AI data centers. So all in all, really positive update here for Bitdeer. So in summary, we have a tough macro environment. Yes, this should be short lived. We should recover, inshallah. And regardless of how short it is, when we do recover, inshallah, a lot of these plays, I think, will turn out to be great bargains at this particular time. Let's go to questions. As-salamu alaykum to everyone saying as-salamu alaykum. Really appreciate you guys coming. And if I forgot, please do leave a comment. That would be awesome. Become a member of our community if you aren't already, inshallah, pay for itself many times over. Going to the first question here, Rashad, do you think nuclear energy will emerge to invest in? Yeah, I'm bullish on nuclear energy generally. I do think that a year ago, two years ago, probably a better time to get started in nuclear energy, but there's still room to run there. So there's less bargains now than there was two years ago. But I think the best in breed in terms of growth for energy will be solar. So if we can find something that's not a commodity that's technologically differentiated in the solar space, I think that may be even better than nuclear. Staking pool writes blocks to the blockchain and executes contracts. Okay. Aqib says, if someone is interested in stocks, which service should he purchase from PIF? The premium service covers stocks and crypto. And the elite service, the only difference is that it includes our course. So if you want to learn how to invest and do research and value companies and build a portfolio and pay Zakat and pay purification, then the elite is for you. If you just want to follow what we're doing, and become part of the community, then a premium elite includes that, but it also adds to it. The course Rami says, Java said, if a contract that is being executed as Haram, but the person running a staking pool be considered facilitating Haram and thus what's staking in that staking pool be Haram. One of the reasons we haven't staked in, let's say Solana is because of that reason. So yes, when you are staking, you're validating transactions and we want to avoid an issue path. So that's why we stayed away from that. Rami says, BTC miners follow BTC price and are predictive of BTC price. There's obviously a strong correlation between BTC miners and the price of BTC. So as we saw the price of BTC struggling, it's no wonder to see a lot of BTC miners struggling as well. I really appreciate that. Do you think BTC miners such as Bitdeer and Iron run even without their financials going up based off BTC price? If BTC price goes up fast enough, then their financials will improve as well. Do you think Doge will go up as soon as all US states approve X payments? I think it will definitely benefit. I don't know by how much. I certainly think that this is a bullish sign for Doge and it really depends on the mood of the market. Sometimes you get a market where regardless of the news that's coming out like today, the market is just not in the mood to reward any asset for that. And in other times, regardless of how insignificant the positive news is, the market will just exaggerate that piece of news to no end. So it really depends on the mood of the market at the time. Right now, the mood of the market is we don't know when the Dock strike is going to end in the United States. We have no idea what's going on in the Middle East and how big this snowball of chaos can eventually get. People are hesitant. Investors are hesitant. If we get the X payments in all US states, assuming there's a neutral or positive mood in the market, I think that will be bullish for Doge considering the comments that have been made about potential integration there. Ali asked, in your subscription, do you tell us entries and exits? So we have buy and sell prices. So buy below prices, sell above prices on our watch list. And so that's basically answering the question, would we buy so-and-so asset at this price or not? So we do have entries and exits. Do you also use technical analysis in your picks? Not too much, to be honest. I'm not that big on technical analysis. I try to focus on fundamentals and I do try to keep increasingly aware of the macro environment and where we are in the cycle. But a lot of the technical analysis that is done is mostly not useful, not really that much value adds. And we're generally longer term investors. We're generally not doing any day trades or even swing trades. We'll do them not often. So yeah, technical analysis doesn't really fit with that style. And although it's not something that there are certain things that are useful for technical analysis, relative strength index, that's important. Moving averages, that's important. Head and shoulders, sometimes works, sometimes it doesn't. Other descending triangles, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. It's very important to be aware of the fundamentals of the asset before anything else. And then the price action, volumes, stuff like that. They complement that, but they shouldn't be the meat and potatoes of your investing analysis. And that's what we try to do. So with that being said, if you haven't liked, become a PIF member. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.