The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Market Pulse - Lithium, SMCI & HIMS

Rakaan Kayali

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Market Pulse - Lithium, SMCI & HIMS
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Introduction & Market Overview
  • U.S. Market Indices: Dow, NASDAQ, S&P
  • VIX and Volatility Spike
  • Tesla's Upcoming Robotaxi Event
  • Nvidia's Performance & Technical Analysis
  • Lithium Sector: Stocks and ETF Movements
  • Gold & Silver Price Updates
  • Oil Prices Amid Middle East Tensions
  • Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Solana Price Movements
  • Super Micro Computer Stock Surge
  • Financial Analysis of Super Micro
  • Earnings and Margin Concerns
  • HIMS and HERS: Growth and Future of Pharmacies
  • Weight Loss Compounds and Competitive Advantage
  • Q&A Session


CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone, I hope you're doing well. Today is Monday, October 7th and Bitcoin is at 63,600. We're recovering here and the Dow Jones is down half a percentage point. Let me actually share what I'm looking at, that would be useful. The Dow Jones is down, as I said, half a percentage point. NASDAQ is down 0.35%. S&P is down 0.3%. The dollar index is holding pretty steady. The VIX is up as we continue to wait for the retaliation to Iran's retaliation and what that means for the markets. The VIX is now above 20. It's up 8% today. We're still way below the high for this year, but we are at elevated levels compared to our average this year, which was closer to 10. So now above 20, which means that oddly enough, it's a good time to be buying. It's a better time to be buying now than when it was at 10. And perhaps this is indicative of just how strong the market is that the VIX is above 20 and we're still at all-time highs or near all-time highs with most of the major indexes. Let's look at stock movers today. So we have Tesla's down 2.2%. We're waiting for the October 10th event. So that is very near. We really didn't get the run-up to the event. So looks like excitement is pretty contained with regards to what will be revealed in the RoboTaxi event the 10th of this month, as I mentioned. For those who are, this makes the job of holders a lot easier. If the stock price had run up a lot before the event, one would be attempted to sell the news and try and do a swing trade there. But since it hasn't really run up, we're still at 244. And that's partly because of missing delivery expectations last week by only 500 vehicles, by the way, nothing really to be worried about. And anyway, vehicle deliveries are not what is going to be the main movers for the stock moving forward. The main movers for the stock moving forward are the high margin businesses, whether it be RoboTaxi or the energy business that Tesla has or their humanoid robot business later on. Nvidia is up 3.63%. It is now back at the $130 level. So this stock was, it flirted with $100 a couple of times this year. It fell to the $100 level and then quickly recovered. If this pattern is repeated again, this is the point where the stock turns around again. If you're into technical analysis, that is. As it relates to, lithium has been one of those pleasant surprises for us. We have exposure to lithium. If you look at the lit ETF, which looks at a basket of lithium stocks and battery stocks, that's up 4% today. Albert Marley is up 1%. That's one of the largest lithium public miners. And PLO, Piedmont Lithium is up 10%. Congrats to all of the PIF members. Another PIF name, which I've spoken about on this channel, HIMSS is up 12%. Marathon Digital, one of, or the largest public Bitcoin miner, is down today 2.2%. The miners started today in the positive and seem to have reversed. Iris Energy is down less than 1%. Gold has pulled back a little, but it is still up a massive amount this year. If we look at the last year, we're talking close to 45% up for gold, which is pretty darn notable for gold. For silver, we are down 1.5% and oil is up. As I mentioned, the market is anticipating some violence in the Middle East and that always spells higher oil prices. Bitcoin, as I mentioned, 63,500. Doge is just above 11 cents and Solana is just below $150. Let's look at some of the big movers for today. One of them being super micro computer up close to 15%. Now, don't let that one number fool you. It's up 90% if you look at the last year, so that's really good. That being said, it peaked close to 120 and now it's 47. For people who have held throughout, it's been a tough hold. We did cover it for elite members and we decided to pass on it. I think it was closer to the $100 range when we passed on it. Let's look at why it's surging today. Super micro computer got a much needed boost because I had to deal with a short report. By the way, whenever you hear a short report, take everything that comes with it with a hefty grain of salt. Do not panic. The reason obviously being is that there is a conflict of interest there. When a commenter has a position in the asset, long or short, any news that comes from that person or that company or that fund needs to be taken and viewed in the context of the position that the commenter holds. When a short report comes out, the company has a short position in the company, their interests are served if the stock goes down. They're going to try to inflate any piece of bad news they can find about the stock. Now, this is not to say that everything in short reports is wrong, but you should definitely view it, read it, having in mind the position that the commenters have. They had to deal with a short report, which damaged the stock. They had to deal with an investigation into their accounting practices, delaying the release of earnings, but they got a much needed boost today after they announced positive shipment data. Supermicro said in a news release that it recently deployed more than 100,000 GPUs with liquid cooling solution for some of the largest AI factories ever built. Baron estimates that's a multi-billion dollars of orders. Investors were pleased with the announcement as it shows demand for the company servers are still strong despite some recent negative news surrounding Supermicro that recently hit the stocks. Shares declined 62% from their all-time closing high of $118.81 in March. This included the publication of a short seller report that alleged it found glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues. Why am I not invested in this stock? Let's take a look at Supermicro Computers and their financials. Their market cap currently is under $30 billion. And if you look at their financials, they're pretty decent. Their revenue is $5.31 billion. Operating expense is $252 million. Net income is $352 million. Cash and short-term investments $1.67 billion. And net income $352 million. Cash from operations, negative $635 million. Cash from investing, negative $68 million. Cash from financing, $258 million. So what stands out to me here, if it isn't already clear to you, what stands out to me here is the small margins that they have. As I always say, there are easy ways to make money, and that's where I want to invest. And there are harder ways to make money. And Supermicro Computer, yes, they're in the right field, AI and supporting the build-out of the infrastructure for AI. But they're in the hardware part of that field. And hardware typically has less margins, is a tougher business than software, for example, especially if you don't have proprietary technology that makes your hardware very unique, which enables you to command higher margins. So if we look at the Q4 highlights for this company, revenues up quarter over quarter, 38%, which is fantastic. Year over year, it's 143%. Again, fantastic. But this is my holdup. Gross margin is 11%. That's the top line. So revenue minus cost of goods sold, that's, if you look at the margin, 11%. That doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for error, a lot of wiggle room for operating expenses, for expansion, for reinvestment in the business. Doesn't leave too much there. And that's why I've stayed away here. So if you look at, as I mentioned, revenue growth, very impressive. So going from Q4 23, 2185. So this is in millions. So we're talking billions here. So 2.1 or 2.2 billion to 5.3 billion in Q4 2024. So very healthy growth here. Don't get me wrong, but this is going in the wrong direction. So non-gap gross margin, 17.1% Q4 of 2023 and Q4 2024, that's 11%, 11.3%. So the margins aren't improving even though revenue is improving. So apparently economies of scale are naturally working here, which is surprising. You would as revenue goes up, you get economies of scale, you get better margins. This is not what we're seeing with this particular company. Again, here, operating margins. Now Q4 24 may have been an aberration, may have been something that is not representative of the general trend. Just one quarter doesn't really give you a trend. So it's important to keep that in mind. It's possible when they report earnings at the end of the month that they break this trend. Operating margins seem to have stayed pretty stable in the high 10, low 11% range. Q4 2024, the operating margin fell substantially 7.8%. Earnings per share, pretty, pretty stable. And even though revenue has jumped, earnings per share is pretty stable in the last three quarters, went from $5.59 to $6.25 in Q4, from Q2 to Q4 2024. Obviously we're talking about their fiscal year, which is not necessarily what their calendar year represents. And cashflow, obviously that was not great. So a net cash was actually in the negative for Q4 fiscal year 2024. So in summary here, it's a good company. It's in the right industry for the time. There are a lot of secular trends, secular wins in its back. So it's a decent company. My holdup for it personally is that I like better margins. I like fatter margins. That's not what I'm seeing here for super micro computer. And that's why I stayed away. It does not say it's not going to do well. It just doesn't fit my criteria, what I look for. So that's my take on that. Now, another company that I want to mention here, perhaps take a victory lap on it since I mentioned it last week. And I told you guys not to be panicked by the news that the FDA had said, Hey, the, what we were considering to be in short supply is no longer in short supply for referring to a compound related to weight loss. Now this compound was not what HIMSS was manufacturing based on the shortage exception, but it was related to weight loss. And some investors thought, Hey, this may be indicative of what the future holds. And eventually the shortage will be no longer there for what HIMSS is producing. And really HIMSS for me is not a play on specifically the weight loss compound that they are producing and has made a lot of money for them, but it's a play on the future of pharmacies and the future of pharmacies. As I see it, it's convenient, it's personalized, it's low cost and HIMSS has been built from the ground up online first. So whereas other CVS, Walgreens, they're trying to add online capabilities to existing business infrastructure. HIMSS has been built from the ground up from the start online first. And I think that's an advantage for it. And certainly the growth, we went over this in a live last week, the growth that the company has experienced, the margins that they have now, these are good margins and the vision that they have for what's next. That's really what I'm invested in. The FDA says this compound is in shortage or not. That's short-term noise. It's not long-term signal. So it's up 11% today. So Alhamdulillah, there was strong recovery there after the dip that I experienced last week. Now, one of the reasons for this dip HIMSS and HERS shares rise on pre-market, rather HIMSS and HERS erased that pre-market. HIMSS and HERS shares have risen on upcoming inclusion in S&P small cap 600. Now, why is that the case? There was a company that was in the small cap 600 that got acquired. And so HIMSS is going to take its place. And because it's now in this, in the S&P 600, it's going to be automatically added to a lot of portfolios, a lot of funds that are tasked with following this particular index. So that creates more demand. And typically that leads to higher prices for the stock. So investors are front running the inclusion into small cap 600. That's the direct reason for the appreciation in HIMSS. However, something that I want to point out that kind of went under a lot of investors' radars is the fact that HIMSS has mentioned. So on the eve of last week's drop in its price, they have mentioned that demand for its weight loss service would remain strong because they don't copy Eli Lilly's compound. They copy Novo Nordisk's compound, even after supply shortages ease, as long as the company operates within compounding regulation and respects branded drug patents. So even if the shortages ease, they'll still be able to command strong sales for their weight loss compound. That's what HIMSS and HERS is asserting. And based on third quarter card data analysis, the analysts note that HIMSS and HERS health Q3 2024 revenue is expected to exceed the company's guidance of $375 million to $380 million by approximately $5 to $10 million. And not only that, but the average transaction price was up 14% sequentially from $126. Now it's $126. It was $111 in the second quarter of 2024. Net orders for third quarter 2024 increased 3% sequentially compared to the second quarter. So yes, the inclusion into the S&P 100, that's exciting. It's good for the stock. But also from a fundamentals perspective, if we're looking at the business, it's doing well. It's exceeding their revenue guidance. They think that even with the weight loss, if you're talking about weight loss and how long that will, they'll continue to benefit from the compound that they're selling at a much cheaper price than competition. They think that will continue for the foreseeable future and sales per the dollar amount per transaction is going off for the company as well. So fundamentals for the company look strong. And so overall, very positive. I like where we are sitting for our PIF positions and more good news to come. And with that, let's take some questions. Chocolate, nice to see you. Walaikum Salam. Wilson says, Salam brother Akan. Any thoughts on Enphase Energy? I will do a look at Enphase Energy inshallah this week. Because I did mention last week that I was looking for a solid solar play. So we'll look at Enphase Energy. Maybe I'll look at some smaller cap solar plays as well to add to our portfolio because it is a clear secular trend that I think will continue moving forward. And I'd like to have a taste of that inshallah. Abdullah says, Salam brother. You were expecting Tesla to get near 300 before the event. Any idea why it went south instead? I said it may get up to there. I didn't say necessarily that I was expecting it to get there. But the miss in deliveries last week is probably what put a stop on the trend that it had. But like I said, it makes investors' job easier because if it had been at 300, I think it eventually is going to get there. But if it was 300 now, you'd be thinking to yourself, hey, should I sell before the event? But now you don't really have that. You don't really have that question to answer. So good. Thoughts on Veer. Maybe I'll look at it in a future live. Curious why you like miners more than Mr. seems to always outperform them. Mr. uses a lot of leverage. And just from a halal conscious perspective, I don't invest in companies that employ a lot of leverage. That's why I have never touched Mr. Micro strategy that is for those who are wondering. Chocolate says, does the Friday jobs report indicate that the Fed may ease on the November rate cuts or maybe don't do it at all? What we saw chocolate is that instead of pricing in a 50 base point cut or expecting a 50 base point cut, market is expecting 25 base point cut. That's what the Friday jobs report did. By the way, this week, in case you don't know. And by the way, if you aren't part of our newsletter, become part of our newsletter. It's free. So things to watch out for are sent to you. Go to practical islamicfinance.com to become part of our newsletter. Also become a PIF member if you aren't a member already and hit the like button. I don't think I said hit the like button in this live. So hit the like button, please. Let's get this live to a hundred likes. I'd really appreciate that. So let's, let's look at our calendar this week. So Thursday we have core inflation. October 10th, busy day. The Tesla event, Robo tax event. We have core inflation. That's going to come out on Thursday, October 10th. On October 11th, we have PPI, the producer price index. So how much are producers paying? That's going to come out. This will also, so these two numbers are obviously going to influence the decision. And we got the Michigan consumer sentiment report that will influence markets. So a lot of important economic data. And we also have earnings season starting this week out for that. And I'll bring you some highlights from some of the most important companies that report earnings and what that means for the broader economy. If you do appreciate my efforts and you enjoy these lives, I hope you are. I sincerely do. Honestly, I missed you guys over the weekend. I hope all of you have jobs where you look forward to Monday. And I honestly was looking forward to Monday. I love doing these lives. I love watching the markets with you all. If you enjoyed this live, leave a like, hit the notification bell. When we go live next, become a PIF member. We'd love to have you until next time. Make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.