The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Lithium & Gold

Rakaan Kayali

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Lithium & Gold
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Tesla Robotaxi Event Expectations
  • Market Update: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and VIX
  • Tesla, Nvidia, and Lithium Stocks Overview
  • Bitcoin's Stagnant Phase and Outlook
  • Profit-Taking Philosophy Explained
  • Piedmont Lithium's Rally and Short Squeeze
  • Gold vs. Bitcoin as Stores of Value
  • U.S. Debt and Currency Concerns
  • Halal Gold Investment Options
  • Lithium Market Analysis and Rio Tinto's Acquisition
  • Closing Remarks & Community Q&A 

CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.


[00:00:00] As salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, October 9th, and we are exactly one day removed from the much anticipated Tesla RoboTaxi event, which may include revelations regarding other businesses that are highly anticipated, including their humanoid robot business And given the current price of Tesla and the fact that it hasn't really run up at 244 right now, I think it's really exciting for Tesla shareholders in terms of the possibilities after tomorrow's event.

I do think there's probably an 80 percent chance that This stock is higher one week from now, but we'll see today. The indexes are largely in the green. So Dow Jones [00:01:00] is a 0. 85%. Now it's is that 0. 6 percent S and P is up 0. 59%. The dollar index. Has strengthened a bit up 0. 34%. That measures the dollar strength against major currencies.

VIX is down 2. 52%. We're still above 20 making it historically a good time to be a buyer. Tesla, as I mentioned, 244 and video seems stuck at this ceiling basically for its share price at the low one thirties. Lithium today is down. If you look at the lithium ETF, that includes a lot of lithium mining companies and battery companies, lithium related companies, that is the largest lithium miner, Albert Marley is up 1.

7%. Bitcoin is doing what Bitcoin has been doing, which is a whole bunch of nothing. [00:02:00] It's at 62, 286 doge is up 3%. And I'll talk about gold in a second. Gold is down a bit. We're now at 2, 600 an ounce and PLL. One of our positions is up an additional 17%. Congratulations to all holders there. And I did mention this on our discord.

And I think it's worth mentioning again, we take profits in a way where we are happy that we took profits. If the stock price goes down and we're happy that we left as much of our position as we did, if the stock continues to climb a lot of times unanticipated events happen, which. Pull the stock price in one way or the other and really the I think the healthy reaction there is to say alhamdulillah When you've [00:03:00] booked some profits, there's often events that you just can't anticipate.

So don't try to always Hindsight is always 20, 20. So don't don't think about what could have been and instead be grateful for what you were able to achieve, we try to do our due diligence on these stocks and. Even after doing our due diligence, there's a lot that has to go right in order for an investment to play out and be profitable.

And That lot that has to go right is often things that we can't control. So when we do book some profits, then I think the proper take is just to say, and not think about could we have maximized it this way or maximized it this other way? That's really how investing becomes no longer any fun for people.

All of this [00:04:00] commentary is in relation to our PIF position in PLL we actually had a target weight that was 10 percent and it actually exceeded our target weight and it reached 18, 90 percent of our portfolio. And then we took profits and it's still above. 10 percent of our portfolio.

So some of our members were talking about, Oh, Hey, maybe, we could have gotten even more profits. That may be true, but my my mentality about this is always the same is that take some profits. And again, in a way where you feel grateful that you took profits, if things don't go your way and you're happy, if things go your way that is so long as you still anticipate.

So long as you still hold the thesis that the position is a good one to hold. So that's what the regards to PLL. And I know a lot of PIF members. I hope a lot of PIF members are feeling [00:05:00] very grateful. We did have we did have one member in our discord mentioned that they had a hundred percent return on that particular position.

So I'm really happy to hear that. And I hope a lot of you. Have the same and perhaps even more inshallah. All right. As it relates to Bitcoin miners we saw Bitdeer and Iris energy down today. That being said Bitdeer did actually get a buy rating from a new from new coverage that it got.

So a new analyst picked it up and assigned a buy rating right now. The. Average analyst target price for that particular position is 1395, right? And given it's at 684 per share, now that's a hundred percent increase in the a hundred percent upside potential upside for this stock. So I think pretty bullish all around.

We're just waiting on inshallah Bitcoin to do its thing. A lot of people are [00:06:00] anticipating. Maybe we don't get a I'll run in Bitcoin until the elections that may be the case, maybe the case that if everyone is expecting that we actually do get a run before the election, it's tough to forecast these things.

But what I can say is that inshallah, we will get a run certainly liquidity levels globally and monetary easing globally suggest that we should. If history is any indication, the appreciation and price will be quite healthy and quite juicy for holders. So now we just have to wait, just like we waited on PLL in order to in order for our thesis there to play out and book our profits.

And we had to tell us all the slubber. We had to do a lot of that for that particular position. We'll have to do that for all of our positions. Inshallah. By the way, if you'd like to become part of our community, part of the PIF family then do become a PIF member link to do so [00:07:00] is in the description.

So about gold, I do get a lot of, by the way, if you're watching and you can consider yourself part of the PIF family, but if you want to become a PIF member, then, so an upgraded status then become a PIF member link to do so in the description, as I mentioned as it relates to gold lot of questions about gold and, whether it's a good buy or not.

And I think they're legitimate questions considering where we are right now. So if you look at the price of gold over the last year over the last year, it's up close to 40%. Now this is actually. Better than what the SMP has done. So the SMP over the last year is up 33%. So it's no wonder that people are asking me about gold a lot.

That being said, the relative performance of the SMP versus gold really does rely or depend on what the timeframe you choose is. If you took a different [00:08:00] timeframe the SMP beats out gold. So 94 percent for the SMP, if you take a five year horizon versus 75 percent for gold.

And keep that in mind. And it's very possible that you have extended periods of time where gold does a whole bunch of nothing. And considering the fact that we're up 40%, we may see a cooling off period here. That being said, I think the secular tailwinds for gold.

Are very much overlapping with the secular tailwinds for Bitcoin. You can make the same argument for both, but I think Bitcoin is an upgraded version of gold. And in fact, if you look at the returns, obviously the returns of Bitcoin are Much more volatile. But if you look at the returns of Bitcoin compared to gold or the SMP over the last year, for example, absolutely blows them out of the water.

The difference between [00:09:00] gold and the SMP, it doesn't seem that material when you look at the difference between these assets and Bitcoin, for example. So it's something to keep in mind that is. Yes, I think there are arguments for gold. Certainly it has performed very nicely in recent history, but I do think Bitcoin is, the better story of value compared to gold.

It is the gold of the future, but if you're not comfortable with Bitcoin for whatever reason, then. The argument for gold can be made as follows. Fiat we know is there's no max to it. There is a physical limit on how much gold can be mined. Physical constraints, I should say, on how much gold can be mined.

Whereas theoretically with fiat, you can just print them out of thin air. So there is no theoretical limit there. [00:10:00] So the risks of dilution for holders is much higher for holders of fiat. And that means that over time one can expect the Value of gold denominated in fiat to go up. And especially when we look at the federal debt, so total public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, which is the only way to make sense of the debt number.

So if I told you, 34 trillion, 35 trillion is the amount of debt we have right now. It's hard to put that. Make any sense of that or put that in any type of context. Now, but I think what can help put it in context is comparing it to GDP. And right now you can see that as it relates to GDP, this is actually closer to, it's actually North of 125 percent right now.

Debt is greater than GDP by 25%. That's in a year will [00:11:00] probably be 130%. So we actually have, we have a big problem here in the United States with regards to how much debt the we've incurred as a country. And that trend seems to only. Be accelerating in the wrong direction and in the way of more and more indebtedness, which means there has to be more and more fiat printed in order to service this debt.

Look at interest payments. This is not a pretty picture at all. So interest payments have exceeded a trillion dollars. This is as of Q2, 2024, and it's it's a higher number now, and we've never had this much interest payments that we've had to pay. And as you can see the line is straight up, almost straight up.

The need for. Stores of value is higher than it's ever been. And by the way, this is the U S dollar. Most other major currencies are in worse [00:12:00] condition than the U S dollar. At least in the United States, we have a dynamic economy, a very innovative economy with innovative companies that are creating enormous amounts of value.

And places like Europe, you don't have that. You just have. Debt and a very stagnant economy. This is this is not a pretty picture for Fiat. It is a pretty picture if you are a store of value like gold or Bitcoin. So the argument for. A gold is a solid one. There's secular tailwinds. It has run up as of late a lot.

And so you do want to You know keep that in mind now if you're looking for a halal exposure to gold easy Exposure to gold. I did look that up for you and it is so a good candidate there are others a good candidate is granite chairs and Gold their ticker symbol is bar. But [00:13:00] in case you're looking for a way to gain exposure to gold and in, in your brokerage account.

And so you can see the two lines are overlapping gold and bar. So this is an ETF that is meant to follow the price of gold. It has a small fee, by the way, I'm not associated with it at all. I have no dog in this fight, nor will I be investing in gold. As I mentioned, I think Bitcoin is the better hold, but for people who asked me about it, who are wondering I would say bar the ETF is a good choice.

And they're actually hold physical gold in coffers. I think in London, the company itself ran that chairs is based in New York. And so yeah, I hope that is useful for whoever is thinking about holding gold. Now let's look at why Piedmont Lithium is up. Piedmont Lithium secured mine operating permit for [00:14:00] a Ghana project.

Piedmont Lithium was up actually it's up. Let's see here. That's. 17%. I think it was up at one point close to 20%, more than 20%. They got a, they were up today after saying Ghana's government issued a mine operating permit for the Iwoya joint venture project that company is developing in partnership with Atlantic Lithium.

The mine operating permit is the final required regulatory approval for the start of construction of the project, although Ghana's parliament still needs to ratify the permit. We hope the ratification can occur in the coming sitting expected to resume on October 15th, which would set us on the path towards construction and operation of this globally significant lithium project.

Now, Piedmont lithium's. A share price also got a boost from Rio Tinto's announced 6. 7 billion acquisition of Arcadium [00:15:00] lithium. Now, this is an interesting acquisition because so a bit of color on that Arcadium lithium stock soars as Rio Tinto announced the 6. 7 billion acquisition Rio Tinto announced Wednesday that it has agreed to acquire Arcadium lithium, all cash deal at 585 per share, expanding its access to a key ingredient of electric vehicle.

Batteries, the deal values Arcadium at 6. 7 billion and will need to be approved by Arcadium shareholders. The announcement set Ascent Arcadium shares soaring Wednesday morning, which is today. Now, if you look at how much they soared more than 30%, which is a pretty darn good day of soaring. The reason why this is very bullish for Piedmont Lithium is that If you were to take the value, the multiple that they got on their revenue, Arcadium Lithium got on their revenue from this [00:16:00] acquisition, and you would apply that to Piedmont Lithium should be valued at around 700 million.

Currently, however, Piedmont Lithium is valued at 285 million. So this is very bullish for Piedmont Lithium. As it could conceivably be a very juicy, attractive target for acquisition. So if an acquirer, acquirer were to come with. A similar offer to what was offered to Arcadium, and then there's a more than 100 percent increase in price that could accrue to Piedmont Lithium shareholders, which is not that bad.

Now, when you add to that, the fact that the short percentage on Piedmont Lithium is close to 19%.

You can see [00:17:00] the opportunities for a short squeeze. And I do actually think that What's happening right now is a short squeeze. So the change in price of Piedmont is being amplified by the shorts. We, as I mentioned before, we're overshooting on the downside and now we're overshooting on the upside in response to news events and the shorts are in a bad situation.

The bulls have taken control and the shorts are just, trying to stay. afloat as much as they can, and are covering their positions as they get called, which means more demand for Piedmont Lithium shares, which means the share price goes up, and it's all a happy story for Piedmont Lithium holders like ourselves or like PIF.

members. Is why Piedmont is up as much as it is up today. Again, congrats for everyone who was able to book profits there. [00:18:00] Alhamdulillah for everything. And let's take some questions. Says Salam Alaikum, beautiful people. I second that almost to 60, 000 subs. Yes. It's amazing to see Hamdulillah.

So if you haven't subbed, make sure you sub try to get you all the, as much useful information, try to squeeze as much useful information into our lives as we can, so that you can earn some Halal alpha or above market returns. Inshallah Abdul. Nice to see you. Walaikum Salam. Salaam, Arshad says Salaam Arkan, awesome call on the game yesterday, Alhamdulillah, thank you Arshad, I'm glad you enjoyed it.

Chocolate says Salaam, Wa'alaikum Salaam. Khaled says Salaam, is PLL a hold or sell at current price? Khaled, I think you're a member, so just check our watch list to see our buy below and sell above price, or should I say our yeet above [00:19:00] price? Anyway, that's an inside joke. Thank you all for coming, guys.

If you haven't left a then do leave a like, and hit the notification bell, subscribe if you haven't subscribed already, become a PIF member. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As salāmu alaykum and peace be upon you all.