As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. We have a really interesting day in the markets today, which is Tuesday, October, the fifteenth. Bitcoin currently is at sixty six thousand three hundred. We were close to sixty eight thousand at one point. And then all of a sudden I went to get a coffee, came back and we were sixty five thousand. Now we've recovered to sixty six thousand. I'll tell you why that happened in a minute. Looking at the broader market indexes, Dow Jones is down point to nine percent. Nasdaq is down one point one two percent. S&P is down point three percent and the Russell two thousand is up close to one percent. Dollar index is unchanged and the VIX is up to point four four percent. That's the volatility index. Now, as it relates to volatility and things that are making investors think about what's going on in the markets, there's really three things here. If I'm going to summarize the macroeconomic uncertainty or sources of uncertainty, the first thing we have is the monetary policy and we've spoken extensively about that on this channel there's a there's a more than likely chance that the market is pricing in that we get a fifty base point cut by the end of the year and probably around a hundred base point cut next year The second source of uncertainty is the twenty twenty four election, which is now less than one month away. And it does seem like Trump is pulling away here. Fifty seven point seven percent. At one point, they were basically neck and neck and they were neck and neck for a long period of time. It does seem Trump is pulling away here. I wonder what the. What the cause of this is, it doesn't seem like there was a certain event that caused Harris to lose favor so dramatically, I think perhaps. The more people got to know her, the more they figured out that she, as I described before, she's just an empty vessel floating around. that is willing to say and do pretty much anything she is told to say. I think people got that impression from her after hearing her speak and really can't find any redeemable qualities about her. And perhaps this is impacting her poll numbers. We'll have to wait and see what happens, though. It's not over until it is over, as they say. And the third thing that is casting a shadow on the markets and causing uncertainty is the tensions in the Middle East. And also, I would say, the tensions in Taiwan as between China and Taiwan. As it relates to Israel and Iran, it does seem like, so exactly like I said, Last time Iran hit Israel with those empty ballistic missiles, I said, this is just going to be a vaccine because Israel now knows more about what to expect from Iran and it can take the proper precautions. So the US sent anti-missile systems to Israel that should help it in the case that Iran retaliates after the Israeli strike. And I'm assuming that once this anti-missile system is operational and tested, that the Israeli strike will soon follow. So the Pentagon said this was updated four hours ago. Pentagon said components for an advanced anti-missile system began arriving in Israel on Monday and that it would be fully operational in the near future. according to a statement on Tuesday. Over the coming days, additional U.S. military personnel and said battery components will continue to arrive in Israel. The battery will be fully operational, capable in the near future. But for operations security reasons, we will not discuss timelines. Yeah, they're not going to tell you timelines because the Israeli strike will probably be soon after it's fully operational. so these are the three components of uncertainty in the market that being said the general trend here is bullish I think after we get through this and after we get through the elections And perhaps if we have additional encouraging economic data points that provide more clarity, the road ahead is very bullish, at least till the end of the year and probably Q one, twenty twenty five. That being said, we're not going to take anything for granted and we'll be keeping a very close eye on everything as it develops. so taking a look at the movers today we have apple is up look at this block here semiconductors basically all in the red as is energy semiconductors are in the red for a number of reasons one of them asml reported softer guidance ahead of its earnings asml is down close to fifteen percent And in Sympathy, a lot of other semiconductor companies, semiconductor industry-related companies fell as well. You can see NVIDIA is down five percent today. Looking at some other names here, so Bitdeer is down five percent. Iris Energy is up three and a half percent. It also whipsawed along with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now at sixty six thousand five hundred. So recovered somewhat from that dramatic pullback that it experienced. Now, to understand these things and why you shouldn't worry about them. these dramatic movements in the in asset prices often occur because of derivatives and so if you look at the open interest chart here which measures the number of open derivative contracts related to bitcoin on the bottom here you can see that it spiked right before the drop in price so a lot this red bar here represents a lot of people getting liquidated. And so there was a dramatic drop, well, relatively dramatic drop in the price of Bitcoin. now that that leverage has been washed out of the system flushed out of the system the normal price movement resumes again and the re-leveraging process resumes again so just say in case you're wondering you know what the heck happened here there was no news and yet we saw this dip a lot of a lot of it has to do with derivatives now I've been asked many times about nuclear and my opinion on nuclear and it hit my radar again this morning while preparing for this live so oclo is up sixteen percent and oclo creates modular nuclear micro reactors that are based on fission not fusion fission is less energy less energy needs than fusion By the way, fission is when you split an atom and there's energy that's released in that process, whereas fusion is where you combine two, I should say nuclei, when you combine two nuclei. So the difference between splitting an atom and joining two. And the good thing about fission is that there's a very high energy output. So it's very good for generating electricity. And there's a lot of need for electricity in the future, whether it's data centers or just the additional electrical components that are in our lives now. Cars, for example, and charging them. high performance computing. So the consensus is that the average consumption of electricity per person is going to increase in the future. And therefore there's a big need for solutions for generating electricity. One of those solutions is, is uh nuclear and these micro reactors make it so that and the modular micro reactors make it so that the the parts can be manufactured and then assembled on site and so the uptime the costs are are reduced substantially so let's take a look at I always like before I look into By the way, the reason why it was up today, Oklo was up, is because, well, something. First, it got approval for one of its designs for its nuclear power solution. Also, Google got into the nuclear game in order to power its planned data centers. And it got into the game by investing in Kairos power. And actually, they did a deal with them. So privately head Kairos Power reported Monday that it has signed a development agreement with Alphabet's Google. The famous tech company and the nuclear power solutions provider are teaming up to establish a set of nuclear energy projects totaling five hundred megawatts of power. These should be deployed by twenty thirty five, according to Kairos. So Kairos is privately held. So it doesn't have a public stock that we can follow, but there are some public nuclear stocks that rallied today. I told you about Oklo and another one is NuScale Power, and I'll take a quick look at each one of them. But before we do that, let's listen in and just to, rather than me telling you what the company is about, how about we listen to the CEO and see what he has to say about the company. And this video goes back to when the when the company went public about five months ago. And by the way, this company went public through a SPAC merger with a Sam Altman company. So that, I guess, provides Sam Altman, CEO and soon to be partial owner, minority owner of OpenAI. So that gives it some name recognition, some legitimacy, at least in terms of investors who trust Sam Altman. I'm not sure I'm one of them, but there is some name familiarity there. So let's listen in. Let me know if there's any issues with the With the sound, inshallah, there isn't. Alt-C Acquisition Corp, of which Altman is also the CEO and director. The deal delivering more than three hundred million dollars of proceeds to Oklo. With us now, Oklo CEO and co-founder Jacob DeWitt. Jake, great to have you with us. Thank you. Great to be here. So this is all about powering AI? One piece of it. I think it looks at two factors, powering AI and powering an energy transition that's looking at, you know, reliable, affordable power that nuclear is really well positioned to deliver and at massive scale. Yeah. How long until you're online? Yeah, we're aiming to bring our first plan online by about twenty twenty seven. We're we spent a lot. I mean, the company's about eleven years old. A couple of years ago, we got a site use permit from the Department of Energy to build up. By the way, that's something that really needs to be taken into account. They're going to be online, or at least their plans are to be online in twenty twenty seven. We're in twenty twenty four. So there's a lot of waiting before revenue becomes anything material for this company. And. It's very possible that they don't meet their target of twenty twenty seven and things take a lot longer. There's a lot of regulatory issues that you can obviously see in a company that's trying to do anything related to nuclear fission. These regulatory hurdles are often very non-trivial to be able to pass. But I will say that Oklo's strategy of starting in the US is... probably the best one because I think the U S is the most understanding when it comes to trying out these new technologies and actually at least from a, amongst other, you know, democratic countries in terms of like, if you were to compare us with Europe, well, yeah, you probably would never get anywhere there. In terms of other countries that have tried similar things, in China, there's, I think, three hundred nuclear reactors right now. So, you know, it's being tried. The technology is not necessarily new, but these smaller micro reactors, modular micro reactors, that is kind of new. And therefore, one can expect some delays in the timelines presented. First plant in Idaho, we were awarded fuel for that plant, which is great. It's actually recycled fuel, which is a big part of what our story can be. And we've got three other plants we've announced and excited about the backlog that seems to be growing here. How do you think about public opinion and how much it's changed over the years and what needs to be done to make it a more accepting backdrop? Yeah. Being a native New Mexican born and raised around nuclear technology, I fell in love with it when I was a young kid. So I was always really excited about it. And it's been really neat to see the public at large become more and more accepting and not just accepting, excited about nuclear. I think one of the big changes that's happened, it sounds silly, but what the internet has ena age for people to learn a they hear that it's clea of the safest, if not the energy we have and that amounts of power on a dec as well as do it. Twenty f get excited about it and considerably. Do what's memory of a Chernobyl or think it's shortening ra So here they're mentioning that the pre-money equity value in July for this company was eight hundred and fifty million. Now it's being valued at one point two five. Now, keep in mind, this was a pre-money equity value. They did raise three hundred million. So, I mean, basically it's very close to almost exactly to where it was in terms of market cap and value for the company when it first went public. Because people go learn the facts about what actually happened and realize, look, Fukushima is a horrible earthquake and disaster there. But the actual nuclear event, while bad, was not nearly as catastrophic from a human life perspective. And now we're learning like, hey, a lot of these next generation systems have all these mitigating features where you put the physics of the design in the system to make it self-stabilizing, self-cooling. So it's kind of a physics-based safety approach. You don't need external things to do it. And it's great because it's not just talk. This has been done before. So the technology we're specifically building off of some of these other advanced reactor technologies build off of has actually been demonstrated and demonstrated these safety characteristics in the real world, which is phenomenal. Is your focus mostly in the United States or Europe as well? I mean, what we learned from Russia, Ukraine is that there is a need for power, that there's a need for diversity of power, and they're actually trying to unmothball plants over there and turn them back on. Yeah, I think that's one of the great things about nuclear is you load it up with fuel, and most of these plants are going to run for a year plus. In our case, we aim for ten years before you have to refuel. Talk about a lot of energy security. Once you load that asset with fuel, you don't have to have a constant supply of it. But we're starting in the U.S. We see that as unlocking the rest of the world, given that the U.S. is kind of the flagship entity, especially on the regulatory front. That's a big thing. If you can load a power generation plant with fuel one time and then you don't have to fuel it again for the next twelve, eighteen months and sometimes ten years, that's a big advantage that nuclear power plants have compared to other sources of energy. But we're very excited about what bringing this broadly can look like, not just from U.S. sort of export perspectives, but also geopolitical stability and security on a global basis. I wonder, too, what the Europeans offer in the way of cautionary tales. A lot of discussion a couple of years ago when the Ukraine war started was what if they hadn't turned their back so forcefully on some technologies, right? Absolutely. I mean, look what Germany's done. I think there's an example case study of kind of what not to do. I think you see California following that, not facing the same geopolitical threats, but realizing for climate goals, nuclear is critically important, keeping that plan open. I think we're just at the beginning of a really exciting time. Yeah, and if you're a fan of the environment and things that help save the environment, and I think as adult conscious investors, we probably should be, then nuclear is actually very clean. There's one drawback to fission, which is that there is nuclear waste as a byproduct of that process. That being said, there are increasingly sort of innovative approaches that have been proposed. One obvious approach as the cost of space flight decreases would be just to shoot the nuclear waste into space. I think that's something that could possibly happen in the future and that would get rid of that. pretty big problem that this industry has had to deal with for a long time exciting era where you're going to see a lot more of what nuclear has to bring to bear remember this technology while kind of old is not I mean it's only really eighty years old since we've known how to kind of manage it It's very early in technology development. So I feel very optimistic that we're just at the beginning of a really exciting era here. How do you think about demand coming from areas XA? By the way, something that is, I think, noteworthy about this stock and would be one of the big pros of the stock is that the founder is the CEO and the founder owns a very big chunk of the company, I think close to a ten percent. So typically, founder-led companies have better returns than non-founder-led companies. Is that also as dire as it appears to be when we talk about the grid? Yeah, I mean, it is. And this is what's interesting. And so we focus on a different business model where we're not trying to design the reactors and push them off onto people to do all the work to design, build, and operate themselves. That's kind of the typical model of nuclear's done. We instead do an all-in-one solution where we design, build, and operate and sell power through a long-term power purchase agreement. We see the market really likes this, right? AWS's deal is a data center example, signing a PPA with Talon, a good example of this. But we see others. In fact, we announced a partnership with Diamondback Energy, driving electrification of their operations in the Permian. And that's just the beginning of a huge amount of opportunity for broad electrification and the energy transition. We're really focused on making nuclear pretty, well, a lot easier to buy, if that makes sense. All right. So that's an overview from the CEO. It's not going to be online until twenty twenty seven. The concept is a solid one. I think the technology is probably where it needs to be. The stock is up today close to twenty four percent. Let me show you guys. So there's a lot going for it. But is it is it a buy at this price? Well, it's important to, I think, keep ourselves grounded in financials. Now, obviously, they don't have any revenue. None of their sites are online yet. They have, let's see what their cash balance versus their cash burn is just to see how much runway they have. so they actually raised money from financing uh in the latest quarter two hundred sixty five million uh they've invested capex hundred and eighty eight million so you know assuming that same run rate um it would require a lot of capex if we assume that you know last quarter was not a an aberration a an exception in terms of cash needed for investing in capex so that's close to eight hundred million a year if you annualize that number Cash from operations is negative ten million. I'm not sure how much you can take from that because there really isn't any operations, so to speak, because they're not up and running yet. there's capex investment in capex and perhaps this is the cash from operations is research and development expense and some administ administrative expense but we're seeing you know if we just take the cash from operations and cash from investing that's negative two hundred million now they did raise two hundred sixty five million so they had a net change in cash that was positive And if you look at the cash that they have in total, it's two hundred thirty five million. So not a lot, not a lot of cash considering how much they invested and and lost last quarter and the fact that they're not going to be generating revenue until twenty twenty seven at the earliest. may I add, because these timelines can change a lot, especially with a novel idea like micro reactors. So given this, if we look at, for example, the price to book, which is not my favorite valuation technique to look at, but in absence of any revenue and any income, It's hard to find other reasonable valuation metrics to use. And also in absence of a solid way to forecast, what are the economics of these microreactors? Because we don't really know how much a microreactor is going to cost. Maybe it costs, I've seen estimates of anywhere between a hundred and three hundred million Let's assume it's closer to three hundred million and maybe profit from every location between twenty five and fifty million a year. So it's going to take you at least six years to pay off the investment that you made in the micro reactor. And that's if, you know, everything goes. Everything goes pretty well. And so this is a very high capex, longer term horizon investment. And I think stockholders should have the same view of it, which is that it may work out very well, it may not, but it's currently being valued at one point to five billion and there's no revenue, there's no income. There's deals in place. There's movement for sure. I think they'll do well, but it's going to take a lot of waiting, I think, for this to play out. And there's going to be a lot of ups and downs on the way. And I'm not sure that this is something I necessarily want to pay the opportunity cost for. If I put a dollar here, I can't put it anywhere else. And so given I can't see a near-term catalyst, this is a pass for me although you know it will stay on the watch list I do I'm I'm convinced with the logic behind this approach I'm convinced that we need electricity I'm convinced that fission is a good solution to that I'm convinced that the safety concerns are probably overblown and can be mitigated in a big way. It's just the timeline is a tough one to deal with. You're talking revenue in earliest three years. That being said, something that is definitely going for it, aside from, I think, being in the right business and having the right approach generally to this problem, As I mentioned, the insider ownership is high. The CEO is the founder and he's a subject matter expert. He knows what he's talking about. He's not just the bean counter. He understands the physics. This is a big, big plus for this company. Insider ownership, here it says forty three percent. I saw it reported differently in a different place. I think it was twenty percent in that other source, but it's high. And so that's great. And what's great as well is that insider transactions here, we can see that. The insiders are not selling, they're holding. So that's fantastic. It's not as good as insiders buying, but it is good that they're not selling. And so there's belief in the company. Now, short float, I can understand this too, is twelve percent, which is high. It's not the highest I've seen, but it is high. Anything above ten percent for the percentage of float that is being shorted is considered high. So I expect a lot of volatility in this name and a lot of waiting that investors will have to do. And so I'll skip. That being said, they're in a lot better shape, I think, a lot more attractive investment than something like NuScale, for example, which is up, by the way, one hundred and forty four percent in the last year. And it's up three percent today. But NuScale has a market cap of close to three point five billion. And their revenue is less than a million bucks. In the last quarter, if we look at their cash situation, they have one hundred and thirty million in cash. and they spent a hundred and ninety five thousand on investing not necessarily so let's assume that's nothing cash from operations is negative thirty six million so they're not doing the capex but they have operations that are using up thirty six million, anytime you have cash from operations at negative thirty six million and. Revenue at less than a million, you kind of lost me. And their net change in cash is negative one million. Their free cash flow is negative fifty million. Their cash again, their cash in short term investments is one hundred and thirty million. So these folks are going to have to raise money and probably going to dilute shareholders. So this is another company that I wouldn't touch. And. Well, this is a company that I wouldn't touch. Oklo is closer to being considered, but this is something I wouldn't touch. And if you look at insider ownership here for this company, insider ownership is fifteen percent less than Oklo, but also insider transactions, negative three point two two percent. So you have some insiders that are selling. Oftentimes selling can be noise. Yes, this is true, but sometimes it isn't. And also with regards to the short, short's outstanding, talking, twenty-seven percent of all available shares are being shorted. So I think investors should look out below on that name because any piece of bad news could really pull the rug out from under this stock. I think it's way too richly valued here. Considering the hurdles that are involved in its industry, considering how early we are, considering how much revenue it's generating, I cannot justify that type of valuation for that company. And this is why we invest, because I do think that the market is often inefficient and it misallocates capital. And there are money-making opportunities when that happens. By the way, if I forgot to tell you, forgot to remind you, please leave a like. Would really appreciate that. Share this with your friends, your colleagues, anyone who you want to make money and become a PIF member if you haven't already to follow our portfolios. Link to do so is in the description. With that, let me take some questions. Hmm. Do you still see BTC going through a hundred K in this quarter? Obviously as less and less of the quarter is remaining, that probability becomes lower and lower, but I still think that inshallah it will happen. At least I will say, I still think there's an above fifty percent probability that will happen as crazy as that may seem. What can we expect if the war situation escalates? Personally, I think not much. I think there'll initially be panic in the market, but it will recover. At least that's how it's played out as of late. Great. Assalamu alaikum, Rashad. Nice to see you. not sure about having a nuclear site in my backyard in a few years yeah I can see that and you know that's one of the reasons why I mean nuclear after fukushima and chernobyl obviously nuclear has had a bad reputation it's associated with disasters but I do think you know on a probability basis and considering you know the new advancements in technology and the mitigation efforts and the new designs that perhaps this risk is overblown and perhaps their reputation is no longer warranted for being, you know, an ultra risky way of generating power. I'm glad you liked the live, Rashad. Dr. Baus says, Salaam alaikum, alaikum salam. With tier and volatility, how long will it be when we see a three to five X return? There's no telling whether we will see a three to five X return or when it will happen. I have to always caveat this. I don't want people to think that, you know, the future is certain in any way. It's not. Investing is a fundamentally uncertain exercise. But there are probabilities. And I think that Bitdeer is a good name to hold. Obviously, I hold it. When it will pan out, it's tough to say. But I think it will probably do very well as Bitcoin does well. And if you look at recent activity in Bitcoin, it's rather encouraging. By the way, an article that I wanted to show you guys that I did not show you guys. Yesterday, US spot Bitcoin. saw five hundred fifty six million, half a billion dollars in inflows in the biggest day since June. So. You know, if you ignore the derivative noise and look at the signal, which is the actual buying of the actual asset, buying or selling of the actual asset, well, it's quite bullish. If you look at what people are saying, so, eleven ETFs saw aggregate net inflows. So this is net inflows of five hundred and fifty five million on October fourteenth, which was yesterday, their largest daily net inflow since early June. And Bitcoin hit a two week high of sixty six five. ETF store president Nate Garasi called it a monster day for spot BTC ETFs, adding that they were now approaching twenty billion in net inflows over the past ten months. Simply ridiculous and blows away every prelaunched demand estimate. This is not de-gen retail, it's advisors and institutional investors continuing to slowly adopt. This is very important. And if we want to put this inflow in context, Gold has hit a record high thirty times this year, but gold ETFs have only seen one point four billion net inflows compared with more than nineteen billion for Bitcoin ETFs. So the fundamentals of this asset are Bitcoin, that is. are quite strong. I think this strength will translate to miners of this asset, Bitdeer being one of them. It's going to take some patience and it's going to take some stomaching of a lot of volatility, but hopefully, inshallah, We're getting more and more used to it as we become more and more experienced investors. And really, I'm seeing the development and just the quality of conversation that we're getting in our PIF Discord lounge. It seems like investors, alhamdulillah, are really maturing in terms of how they deal with fluctuations in price for different assets. And they typically have the right attitude where it's like buy when things are down, thinking of selling when things are up, rotating between different assets. It's really awesome to see, to be honest. So yeah, I'm optimistic, not just about Bittium, but I'm optimistic about the chances of our halal conscious community to achieve What I wanted to achieve, which is at least a thousand members becoming millionaires. That's what I would like to see, inshallah. And if we can have a small role in that, I think that will be very fulfilling for me. Thanks Abdul for always reminding everyone to like the live. By the way, I've seen other YouTubers have mods in their chat. I'm not sure we, you know, we're, Our chat necessarily needs moderators, but if you'd like to be a mod, then reach out to me and yeah, we'll make you a mod inshallah. I don't know, maybe I'll make like one or two people mods and we can get the conversation going in the chat. M Khan says, Assalamu alaikum, do we expect Bitcoin to go up until the end of the year? Do we expect it? Well, there'll be a lot of volatility. It's not going to be a straight line, but I think at the end of the year, it'll be higher than it is today. Where exactly it'll be? I think there's a strong probability of it breaking its all-time highs by the end of the year. I think that's a strong probability, actually. And in fact... Obviously, a lot depends on how the geopolitical situation pans out. There's now talk that perhaps there's going to be a blockade that China imposes on Taiwan, perhaps not an invasion, but a blockade. How that translates into overall markets, it's tough to say. But absent geopolitical risks, I think there's a high likelihood of it breaking its all-time highs. With that being said, I hope you enjoyed this live. I enjoyed speaking with you today as I do every time I do these lives. If you enjoyed this live, leave a like, hit the notification bell so you know when we go live next. Become a PIF member if you're not a member already. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.