I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. Last week, I mentioned that there was one remaining hurdle for the market, and that was the Israeli strike on Iran. That happened, and it turns out that it alleviated a lot of concerns regarding the strike leading to an escalation in the war in the Middle East. And so the market has run after this strike. ambiguity, uncertainty has been removed from the macro environment. There are still a lot of unknowns out there. There's a lot of unknown unknowns, but it looks like the coast is clear right now for the market to start running. Now we do get a lot of economic data later this week. And we have, this week is the busiest week earnings week of the quarter. So a lot of investor sentiment will be informed by the results of those earnings reports and what different companies guide for their earnings moving forward. So there's a lot that can change. But today, things are doing very well. Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P, Russell, they're all in the green with the Russell up one point six five percent. Salam alaikum, Wilson. Nice to see you. And by the way, today is Monday, October twenty eighth. Salam alaikum to all. Tesla has moved. been able to preserve the gains that it experienced after its monster earnings report close to two seventy per share uh bit deer and iris energy have had monster day have had a monster day so uh bit deer is up eleven and a half percent iris energy is up sixteen percent Oil is down five and a half percent. There was a lot of anticipation for what was going to happen in the Middle East. And it turns out that it looks like at least thus far that things will not escalate. The flow of oil will not be interrupted. Bitcoin is at sixty eight seven. Still looking to get a seven handle on the price of Bitcoin. Inshallah, we get that soon. And Doge is knocking on the door of fifteen cents. And who knows, perhaps in this live it reaches fifteen cents, but really bullish on Doge and Of course, if you're following the US elections, you know that if Trump wins the election, there will be a new department, the Department of Government Efficiency, run by none other than Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency. is basically the acronym for it is dode so some free marketing there that is always useful when you're talking about a meme coin if we look at the pinviz chart for movers today looks like a sea of green the bigger companies have had more modest returns and so I think really now moving down the market cap uh The market cap order towards and focusing more on smaller cap companies and cryptocurrencies, by the way, may yield better returns in the immediate future. Now, we did see energy actually take it on the chin. As we mentioned, oil was down close to five percent today. And this reminded me of a tweet that I saw from none other than Andrew Tate. October, twenty first, mentioning that he bought a million dollars worth of oil. That's seventy three point six eight in case Israel strikes Iran. And that oil right now is at sixty seven seven. So hopefully he got out before he realized that loss. And this is why I am very cautious not to swing trade. Recall always that the number one. goal of investing is not to lose money the number one goal of investing is capital preservation never lose sight of that goal all right moving on today is the best historically it's the best day of the year in terms of average return so we have seasonality working in our favor in addition to some positive macro developments one question that many people may have on their minds is whether or not the market is overvalued and I always like to look at this and see what the data is telling me now if you look at the average pe ratio for the s p five hundred we are at elevated levels uh so if you look at nineteen ninety five for example the average was sixteen four today the average is twenty six five so a very big increase, more than fifty percent, actually, in the average price to earnings ratio. And in case you're not familiar, the price to earnings ratio, the higher it is, the more expensive the asset that you're looking at is, all else being equal, that is. And so this all else being equal is a very important detail because other attributes of companies have changed as well for example the net profit margin has changed for companies so if you look at nineteen ninety five the net profit margin was five point three percent today it's ten point five percent so companies have become a lot more efficient and when a company is more efficient it's more profitable you're willing to pay more for its earnings that makes a lot of sense to me and so this is something that I think people should take into account when they are looking at the pe ratio now moreover I think that the momentum that we're experiencing right now almost makes the PE ratio, at least as per the data and historical precedent, almost makes the PE ratio not really relevant. Because if you look at the S&P five hundred PE on months when the twelve months gain has exceeded thirty percent like today, where if you look at the S&P five hundred over the last twelve months, the return is actually greater than forty percent. So there's strong momentum here. If you look at by September thirtieth, twenty twenty four, the S&P five hundred PE was around thirty one. And if you look at all of the other months where you had periods where the previous twelve-month gain exceeded thirty percent. And you look at the next twelve months, how the S&P performance was, the average for the above cases was around fourteen percent. That is, the S&P returned an average of fourteen percent over the next twelve months. So this is an argument in favor of momentum in the markets and what it means for expectations of returns. almost regardless of the PE at the time. Now, if you look at the correlation between the S&P five hundred PE on a five year normalized EPS after twelve months gain of thirty percent and the performance twelve months after that, that correlation is basically point zero four, very close to zero. So, you know, zero means the two are uncorrelated at all. What it's telling us right now is that when you're looking at the return that you can expect from the market after a twelve months period of at least thirty percent, the PE ratio almost becomes irrelevant. There's almost no correlation between the level of PE and the returns you get in the next twelve months. And this is why I've been saying that that's not necessarily What we should be focused on? What we should be focused on is really the liquidity expectations in the market. They will set the tone for asset prices moving forward. And so currently in November, we're expecting almost a ninety ninety eight percent chance as close to certain as you're going to get in markets for a twenty five base point cut. And then if you go out to December, there's close to a seventy percent chance that we get a fifty basis point cut by the end of the year. That's really what's going to determine liquidity levels and what's going to determine asset prices moving forward. That being said, I'm not oblivious to valuation. That's why we have our buy below, sell above prices for PIF members. We're still very cognizant of that. And in my email that goes out every Monday, telling members what I would invest in on that day, I'm very cognizant of what assets are below our buy below prices. So this is definitely something that you must always keep in mind. But if we're talking generally here and whether it's a good idea to be in the market or not, I think data suggests that it's still a good idea. And And so long as we have this additional tailwind with, I think, a Trump victory, then the argument becomes even stronger. And there doesn't seem to be any let up, really, in the argument. margin for victory for trump or expected margin for victory as per the betting odds at least and that margin is as you can see expanding all the time so this makes the markets you know I think even more attractive at this particular point in time that being said There are a lot of unknown unknowns out there. So obviously you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose. Be mindful of valuations so you're not burned. But generally speaking, if you're saying, hey, have we run up so much that, you know, And there's no additional room for the markets to run. I think there is. There's a lot of liquidity on the sidelines. There's more liquidity on the way. There's a lot of positive developments that are happening. So I remain very bullish as of now, at least till the end of the year. And I will keep you updated. So if you're not subscribed, you haven't hit the notification bell yet, please be sure to do so. uh we'd uh love for you to become part of our community if you aren't already uh so let's go to rashad salam again and all thanks for the pif meeting yesterday always great to hear well thanks rashad for coming uh always great to see you um so we have a comment brothers and sisters I'm young I don't know how to trade could you recommend me any guidance anything would help well unless this is a some sort of ad and there's going to be you know comments oh hey you know look at this guy this trader he helped me out unless this is one of those Well, I would not really think about trading as something to get into. Rather, look at investing. Buy assets that are scarce. Buy assets that are useful. And those will rise in price. But don't try to do what Andrew Tate tried to do, which is a swing trade where he bought oil in anticipation. And now he's down and he wasn't in oil for the longer term. He doesn't have a thesis that supports holding it for the longer term because that's basically how you lose money. Niall says, let's not forget to like the video. Well, thank you so much. I really appreciate that. And I'm really glad that you're enjoying these lives. Oh, thank you. Showa says, Dr. Showa says, I highly recommend Rakan's course. I really appreciate that, Dr. Showa. Taskeen says, Assalamualaikum. I thought it was noteworthy to mention how effective boycotts have been Interesting. So apparently McDonald's, Nike, Starbucks, RMCF are down. You know, as it relates to boycotts, I think. What we should ask ourselves is, what is the end goal here? If McDonald's, Nike, Starbucks, RMCF are down, nothing was accomplished here in and of itself. So we have to ask ourselves, how are we going to help the Palestinians in a material way? not saying that this type of pressure isn't necessarily useful, but I don't think these were necessarily the main culprits in the Palestinians' plight. So I just want to make sure that we keep our eye on the prize, and the prize is helping our Palestinian brothers and sisters out. So It's not necessarily good or bad if a stock is up or down. What is good or bad is whether or not we're able to assist those who need assistance and get assistance to them and take the pressure off of them. Now, if this leads to that, then great, I'm all for it. But let's not stop here and just pat ourselves on the back, the stock price is down, because that doesn't necessarily mean that any Palestinians have benefited from this. We have to take it till the end, which is to say, how are we going to help our Palestinian brothers and sisters in what they're experiencing? um yeah that's just my two cents on that and abdullah says salam do you think and by the way tuscan I really appreciate your enthusiasm about this and I don't want to you know um I don't want to make it seem like I'm speaking against any effort to to help our palestinian brothers and sisters because I I mean the world has has left them and we must make sure that we don't leave them. Abdullah says, Samer, Ken, do you think selling at a loss is ever a good idea? Yeah, of course. Selling at a loss is a good idea for many reasons. At the top of the list is if your thesis about a stock has changed, you no longer believe in it, or for example, you're uncomfortable with it, Or you want to realize the loss because you know, you get a tax advantage or there is a better place to put the money than the, the stock that is at a loss. But I would say that one of the, when you should not sell at a loss is simply because you have a loss. That's not a good reason. So you should check whether or not your. your conviction in the stock has changed just because the price has fallen. And if that's the case, then this is not a good reason to sell because the markets in the short term do not necessarily reflect the truth. In the short term, the markets reflect sentiment. In the long term, the markets will reflect fundamentals. So just keep that in mind. I hope you found this live beneficial. I'd really appreciate if you did find it beneficial to leave a like, hit the notification bell so you know when we go live next. Become a PIF member if you aren't a PIF member yet. And until next time, take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.