The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Bitcoin Near All-Time Highs!

Rakaan Kayali

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Bitcoin Near All-Time Highs!
In this episode, we will cover:

  •  Intro and Market Overview
  • Stock Updates: Tesla and Bitdeer
  • Dogecoin's Strong Performance
  • Trump Presidency's Impact on Markets
  • Bitcoin Nears $73,000 Resistance
  • Lithium Stocks and PLL's Outlook
  • Halal Compliance in Investing
  • Audience Q&A on Tesla, Bitcoin, and Profits
  • Final Thoughts and Closing

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. My sincerest apologies for running late. I am feeling a bit under the weather, so it took me a while to get prepped for this live, but I absolutely wanted to go live. I wanted to make sure I went live today. Because some of you are waiting for it. And inshallah, I can provide some degree of comfort for people who may be nervous or just maybe wondering what I'm thinking about the markets today. We have had a lot of, alhamdulillah, upside in our positions, in our portfolios. Whether you're a member or not, I hope that you've benefited from some of the insights that we've provided today. on this channel. And assalamu alaikum, Amin, and assalamu alaikum, Rashad. It's nice to see you both. Alhamdulillah, you know, everything we've talked about is clicking. Some periods of time, you're going to see that, you know, nothing is really clicking in your portfolio. Perhaps the timing is just not, it's just not the right time for your positions and you have to be very patient and you can't really lose confidence in yourself and the logic that you've used, the research that you've done, you have to make it through those times. And eventually, inshallah, you get to times like today, like what we've been experiencing lately, when it seems like basically every day we have something that's doing really, really well. And alhamdulillah, yesterday was one of those days. And today is one of those days as well. We'll talk about that in a second. Assalamu alaikum, Sheikh Adnan. Assalamu alaikum, Abdul. So let's jump right into it. So looking at the market indices, we have the Dow Jones is down a smidge. NASDAQ and S&P are up. Russell is down around half a percentage point. But nothing to write home about in terms of movement for any of these indices. I think we're taking a breather from yesterday's massive run up in a lot of assets. And those assets were on the sort of risk on skewed towards the higher risk levels on the asset spectrum. And so we're taking a breather from that. We're also waiting for a lot of key economic data points to be released later this week. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, every single day we'll have some key data points that will help inform the market's direction moving forward. The VIX is down, so that's good. The consumer confidence is up. That's one of the data points that we actually received today. And so that was good. If we look at some of the positions that we've spoken about in the past, Tesla is still at two sixty. I think that Tesla stands to benefit from a Trump presidency. Trump win. That could be a catalyst for this stock. And basically everything Elon related could benefit from a Trump presidency. Just in anticipation of what may be. in terms of advantages that Elon Musk's companies are able to secure in a Trump administration. And not necessarily specific to Elon Musk's companies, but at least the industries that Elon Musk And certainly he'll have a prominent voice in that administration. He'll have a lot of ears that are listening to what he has to say and care about what he has to say, which is a pretty big contrast compared to the current condition where the Biden administration is quite hostile to Elon Musk. and has done some adverse actions that impacted his companies um so that's with regards to tesla we did see so bit deer yesterday was up twenty five percent so congratulations to uh holders of uh bit deer and uh It's always a good idea to take profits. I personally didn't take profits yesterday. I think there's more room here to run. But we are seeing a slight pullback here, down one point ninety two percent. Very expected after a twenty five percent jump. Other names, ASML is up a smidge. M-phase is still around the eighty two dollar mark, which I've covered M-phase before. Unfortunately, it is not within my sort of. It doesn't pass my reliance on interest check, so I'm not comfortable with it, with its financials, with how much it is using or reliant on interest. But I do think it's a solid company. And at these prices, it has some pretty good upside to it. Gold is at twenty seven hundred and up around a percentage point. Silver is up. The the big mover for us today, which, like I said, you know, all of our assets aren't going to move at the same time upwards. But any particular period of time, at least one of our assets, inshallah, is going to be doing really well. And during recent history, Oh, look at that. Oh, that's cool. I didn't know that happened. So a dog popped up on the Doge chart. Okay, so TradingView must... Must have some vested interest in Doge. But yeah, everything about Doge is positive. It's feel good. I mean, it's the Bitcoin of meme coins. And it's been doing quite well as of late. I think it's the... Actually, I know it's the largest... Of the top fifty cryptocurrencies, it's the one that has moved up the most. in the past month. So really strong performance from Doge. Obviously, I think it got some free marketing that I don't think anyone was seeing from the Department of Government Efficiency, which is being talked about a lot by Elon Musk and Donald Trump. And so that's a catalyst to it. It may make sense here. As PIF members know, I do like to take profits on our way up, even if I think that there's additional upside to any asset. It just, I think you feel better, you're more secure about the future, you're less nervous. I think it's a healthy habit to be in. And I think we have pretty strong tailwinds up until the elections, if I'm talking about near term. And so if you have a significant position and you're sitting on a lot of profits, Not financial advice, but I think it's always a good idea to take some profits on the way up, even though I think that there's still upside here. So checking in on the biggest near-term impactor on macro, we have the US elections and Donald Trump continues to maintain a substantial lead At least as per the betting markets. Now, nothing is over until it's over. I hate calling something before it happens because that's basically inviting Allah to remind you that the future is really in his hands. It's not over until it's over. And so even though the percentages are very much in favor of Trump, I don't view it as a done deal until it's a done deal. Now, as it relates to Bitcoin, by the way, I was talking about Doge so much, I forgot to mention this small tidbit of information that may or may not be relevant. But Bitcoin is near all time highs. It's close to its seventy three thousand and change all time high. And I think it's going to get past it. Now, if I'm looking at the liquidation heat map here, so This is useful when determining support and resistance. We do see some resistance here at seventy three thousand where a lot of liquidations may happen. So busting through that number, I think, will be a pretty big milestone, but it's going to take some effort here. We're at seventy to seven. I wouldn't be surprised if we passed our all time highs soon. But there's a lot of liquidations that you have to go through to get past that. So something to keep in mind. I wouldn't be too nervous if it hovered around the levels that it is for a while. And as it relates to the sort of bigger picture, if we zoomed out here. So I'm looking at the stock to income model here, which I think is one of the best predictors of the general ballpark where Bitcoin needs to be at any point in time. Projected as per this model, we're at around ninety two thousand. So considering we're at the early seventies right now, I think that we're not overpriced, at least not as per this model. Something you should always check on. Now, this model, you do want to keep a margin of error with models like this. So you don't necessarily have to be at the projected before you think about exiting. There are other factors to take into consideration, like the liquidity cycle and where we are on that liquidity cycle. But as of now, liquidity seems to be, as per all the major commenters on liquidity. It appears to be headed in the right direction and the anticipation is for it to continue to head in the northern direction, at least until the end of the year and probably Q one of twenty twenty five as well. As per this model, if you're just looking for more reasons to feel FOMO projected price for Bitcoin in twenty twenty five reaches close to three hundred thousand. Maybe we get that high. Maybe we don't. But if we're at seventy two thousand right now, I still think there's opportunity for investors to accumulate. I probably wouldn't accumulate that much if we if we go substantially higher. I would think about other assets, but we're right on the border here where I would. you know, considering buying, still consider buying versus starting to think about selling. As it relates to other positions in our portfolio, I mean, we've had so many positions do very, very well for us. As I mentioned yesterday, Bitdeer was up twenty five percent. Dogecoin is going crazy, but we also had Piedmont Lithium, which over the last month is up fifty percent. Congratulations to all PIF members who made some money here. Now, as it relates to its sort of recent spike in price, they did release their operations update. yesterday and as I've been saying all year I thought that the end of this year was going to be a strong one for Piedmont lithium and they did report that in q-three they actually doubled their shipments on spot spotty mean concentrates so they reached thirty one thousand five hundred dry metric tons in shipments and they had record quarterly production They also reached mill utilization of ninety one percent, which is very important in terms of reducing sort of the cost per ton. When you increase utilization, you're decreasing the cost per ton. And that's one of the. One of the attributes of mining that you have to understand is that the fixed costs are very are very significant. And if you're able to increase production or there's a change in price, oftentimes that will flow directly. The increased revenue will flow directly into the bottom line. And so these types of stocks can be very volatile. They also had an incident-free safety performance, which is always good to see as, you know, hella conscious investors. We want to make sure we're invested in companies that are doing their best to protect their workers. Looking at some of the details here, PLL, a leading North American supplier of lithium products, critical to the US electric vehicle supply chain. By the way, this is very important and this is an aspect that I don't think many investors are paying attention to. PLL is one of the very few North American lithium suppliers. And if there is a Trump presidency and there is a tariff war between the United States and China, China being the biggest lithium producer on earth, PLL, who has its home in the United States, may benefit tremendously from its geographical location in terms of being one of the only options for companies that need lithium in North America. So this company could do very well in a Trump presidency, even absent fundamental shifts in the demand supply, global demand supply dynamic for lithium. So other important things that they mentioned, NAL increased quarterly production by five percent. Now PLL owns twenty five percent of NAL. Mill utilization achieved a record high of ninety one percent. We mentioned that. The increased utilization rate also drove an improvement in unit operating costs. This is what I was explaining earlier, which declined fifteen percent quarter over quarter when excluding the impact of inventory movements. Importantly, in September twenty twenty four, NAL reported its first incident free safety month The CEO says we are pleased to see the benefits from investments made at NAL during the last quarter with the increase in quarterly production cementing NAL's status as the largest spodumene producing mine in North America. So it's not just, you know, one of the producers, it is for the NAL, it is which PLL has twenty-five percent ownership in. It's the largest spodumene producing mine in North America, said Keith Phillips, president and CEO of Piedmont Lithium. Operational performance continues to improve on a quarterly basis. Sayona is PLL's partner in NAL. Recent announcement of the increase to the mineral resource estimate lays the foundation for potential growth at nal in the future and you can see here the nal concentrate production and how it is developing quarter over quarter now one of the questions I constantly get is hey can you have pll as comfortable to invest in from a halal perspective why is that the case why are these other rating services saying that PLL is uncomfortable to invest in. Well, the reason is, you can find the reason in this chart, and that is the production of PLL, I understood to be ramping up. It was nowhere near full scale production. And therefore, you know, when you have a company that's in startup phase, it's very I think unfair to judge a snapshot of its financials as if this was the normal run rate. This was the normal operations of the company. And keep in mind when we're looking at earnings reports, for example, we're looking at the past. And what I want to figure out is what can I expect in the future with regards to how this company is operating and its reliance on interest bearing debt in the case of PLL. And certainly when I look into the future, I see a company that's not reliant on interest bearing debt. And so what I'm concerned with is what is the nature of this company? And the nature of this company is one that I think I don't have any I don't have any misgivings about with regards to its compliance with Sharia standards. So that's really where the sort of separation goes is that I understand what this company does and what stage it is in in its development. Whereas other services that are rating companies, and by the way, I don't say halal or haram. I'm either comfortable or uncomfortable. Other services that are rating halal and not halal are looking in the rear view mirror without any understanding of where the company is at, at any particular stage. And so that's why there's a discrepancy in our different takes on the company. This is a mining company. It's mining lithium. There's nothing haram about that. There's nothing that suggests that this is a company that is in any way reliant on interest. It's ramping up production. And when their new earnings reports come out, you're going to see revenues increasing and interest income is going to be a smaller and smaller percentage of that. And so. absent any fundamental shifts in the way this company is managed, then I still feel comfortable with it. All right. So thank you for bearing with my voice. As I mentioned, I am under the weather. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live and become a PIF member. If you're not part of our community yet, I'll go to questions. Always good to have a green day. Yes, indeed, Abdul. Alhamdulillah. Ando says, I think I will continue DCA until mid Q one, twenty twenty five. Then I will cash out a part of my BTC stack. Any tips on DCA out methods? I mean, it's basically the same concept as DCA in. I mean, you want to set certain times in the future where you're going to sell certain percentages of your holding and just do that automatically. If you want to be a bit more, you know, sophisticated, you could have a signal where, you know, something is overbought and you offload then. Thanks, Dr. Boss. Wa alaikum salam. Dr. Boss says, thank you for the continued lives. It's very helpful. I really appreciate that. I wouldn't really worry about bricks. I mean, it's not really fundamentally changing my assessment of where I'm putting my money right now. I'm really focused on making sure I own top one percent of assets and the bricks will resolve itself. So I have been sidelined on Tesla and Bitcoin and feeling FOMO now. Wanted to all in now. How to control one's emotions. Well, that's a very a very common feeling and it's a very legitimate question. What I try to emphasize during down days on this channel is that, hey, this is an opportunity, guys. This is the time when you buy. This is a good asset. Here are the reasons why this is a good asset. The market is not always right. In fact, it's often wrong. And so don't take your cues from the market. I think that. So I think that's you know, very important is to have perhaps someone you follow or more importantly, a community like PIF where you have people trying to do the right thing and sharing with one another their thoughts about the market, encouraging one another. And I try, you know, for PIF community, it's good vibes only. We're always just helping one another. And, you know, someone has an idea, they get constructive feedback about that. I would say, Shoaib, with regards to Tesla and Bitcoin, if you have a longer term, outlook I still think tesla and bitcoin are good buys even at these prices I understand you know at two sixty it's not buying at two hundred for tesla I understand that but if you have a long enough time horizon I still think that these two assets are are good buys so you know twelve months plus I think that you'll be very happy that you bought at these prices again not financial advice I'm just thinking out loud here what I would do. I also send out to PIF members a one K email every Monday. And that one K email tells members basically if I had a thousand dollars today, how I would invest it. I think that's useful. Jakoto Ahmed says, is it time to sell Tesla brother? Well, we do have sell above prices as part of PI membership. But I'll tell you, we it's it's below our sell above prices. Actually, today, Tesla is below our buy below price. So I would actually be thinking about buying. Moran says, this is a very good question. If you're cashing out on profits, do you need to have an eye on the next stock or are you happy to hold cash until you are ready? I don't necessarily think that you have to know what you're going to do with the money when you sell or where else you're going to put it. I think what's important is that you sell enough. You know, after a run like Dogecoin has been on, we went from basically ten cents to now, I think we're seventeen and approaching eighteen in a pretty short period of time. I think during times like this, you want to think to yourself, let me take just enough so that I'm still happy if it continues to go up, if I think that there's still upside potential. But also if it goes down, I'm glad that I sold some, I took some profit. So I think you need to manage the psychology of investing here and taking profits really helps manage that psychology so that you don't feel acute senses of regret. That's really what we want to avoid because then you end up making rash decisions. You'll either FOMO into something or you'll panic sell. And so that's what we want to avoid. And taking profits periodically helps avoid that. Sheikh Adnan, I will say that anything I'm invested in, I'm comfortable with. So I'm obviously not going to invest in something that I'm not comfortable with. I hope that answers your question. By the way, nice to see you. Wilson, nice to see you. Okay, Wilson, if you haven't seen the earlier part of my live, I do encourage you to see it. I do address PLL. So as it relates to futures trading, I'm uncomfortable with it because in a lot of ways, it's like trading a debt, which is something that is haram. So yeah, that's my take on that. How much of a disadvantage is it buying BTC versus one of the BTC ETFs? well with btc etfs there is a a management fee that you pay so that's the disadvantage the advantage as I see it and not everyone sees it this way so you may be familiar with michael saylor and the uproar that he or backlash that he received after he said you know basically self-custody was for crypto anarchists and didn't really matter But some people are very sort of gung-ho about that. And they insist on the importance of self-custody for BTC and that for BTC, you should be self-custodying it. Personally, I like the sort of offloading the responsibility of custody to someone else, to another company. rather than taking on the risk of losing my Bitcoin myself. And, you know, if I'm If I was to die, for example, I'm secure in that the BTC that I own is being custodied by a third party, not by myself. And therefore, my family will be able to access it. So if you ask different people, they have different opinions on BTC ETFs. Personally, I own a BTC ETF and I like the psychological comfort from knowing that someone else is taking on the task of custodying this BTC and it's not something that can be stolen from me if I'm custodying it myself. So again, there's different opinions on this. Do what you think you're most comfortable with. With that being said, if you enjoyed this live and you found it useful, do leave a like. Become a member if you aren't a member already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.