As I said, it's not over until it's over. Big reversal today in the election odds. We'll talk about that in a second. We saw the VIX spike today, close to ten percent. And that took a toll on the major indices. Assalamu alaikum, by the way. Today is Thursday, October thirty first and Dow, Nasdaq, S&P and Russell are all down. You can see here we have a basically A sea of red. Everything is down. Bitcoin miners took it on the chin today. Bitdeer iron down. Each one of them more than ten percent. When you live by the sword, you die by the sword, as they say. So volatility doesn't just work in one way. But hopefully if you zoom out, then the companies that have the right fundamentals will do well in a big way, inshallah. Gold is at twenty seven hundred and Bitcoin is just went below seventy thousand. So sixty nine nine is where Bitcoin is at. Doge is less than sixteen cents and that's why we always take profits. Sol is at one sixty nine. So the big reversal in election odds happened suddenly and without any particular one event that one can point to that can say cause this so at least as per the cal sheet betting markets fifty seven percent now uh weight is being put on donald trump winning forty three percent on camilla winning now this peaked at around sixty four six for donald trump and thirty five for Kamala and it has reversed in a big way to be honest uh you know if you full disclosure here I know I've mentioned that I thought Kamala Harris is an empty vessel that will do whatever she's told. And she basically has no opinion on anything. She has no principles. She has no real character. She just takes the shape of whatever thing she's occupying. And Donald Trump, on the other hand, I think he's more emotionally honest. But ultimately, and I don't really... I'll just say this bluntly. I don't think he's too bright. I think that a lot of his opinions on a lot of things, including tariffs and a lot of things related to the economy and related to world affairs are very simple and reflect a very surface level understanding of the complexities of things. And that's why he's so sure of himself. The more simple minded you are, the more sure of yourself you end up being because you have less variables to deal with. And this person seems like that. I mean, he understands things at a very surface level and that's why he's very confident in his ability to impact those things. So he's going to produce world peace and he's going to turn the economy around and he's going to do all these things, but he really doesn't understand anything about these things. And it's tough to convince people of that because he's a billionaire and people look at that and say, well, he does understand some things and perhaps he does have some competencies. Certainly, I think that he has an element of toughness to him. So he doesn't let anything get to him. he can take a lot of criticism. He doesn't waver in terms of his self-confidence. That is certainly something that I can point to that is, you know, to an extent positive, but if it goes overboard, it becomes a negative. But in terms of you know, any type of sophistication or intelligence, really smart proposals. I think he takes advantage of, and one of the reasons for his popularity is he speaks on a sort of dumb enough level where, you know, the vast majority of people can really understand what he's saying and, and, you know, support what he's saying. So That's my view on both of these candidates. Now, I do think Trump will be better for the economy, but the fact that the elections are between these two characters is the tragedy. I mean, either one of them winning, I think, is a tragedy in and of itself. I don't think either one of them should be president. but the fact that the election is between these two people is in and of itself I think a tragedy there's so many people right people in the united states that are much more qualified than either of these characters and so yeah um inshallah I hope we get through it and nothing bad happens As it relates to the probabilities, this is what's going to impact the markets the most, I think, after we're done with the election. Hopefully, the elections aren't in a state where we're still wondering who won and maybe there are lawsuits and there are claims of voter fraud or whatever. Hopefully, that doesn't happen and we just accept The results and the results actually are representative of the will of the people. We accept these results and we just move on. And in that case, all the focus will be on the economy and on monetary policy. Up until now, a chance here of a twenty five base point cut in November. And so that hasn't really changed. Close to a chance of a fifty base point cut by December. That's really what's going to impact the economy the most in this final stretch of the year. S&P five hundred, as you can see, read all around. Now, one thing considering I shouldn't say all around, but certainly the the large market market cap names took it on the chin today. So Microsoft and Meta reported earnings after the bell yesterday. And surprise, surprise, their forecasts weren't. or fell short of expectations even though microsoft had a beef on earnings but their forecast for what is to come for q for uh was not that great so it lost close to six percent in trading today meta lost around four percent google pulled back some of its gains even though it had a really strong earnings we'll see apple and amazon report shortly today so we'll see what impact they have on the markets Now, I do always say what I... Oh, look, Amazon shares pop on earnings beat cloud growth. That's good. So maybe we'll have a reversal, inshallah, in the markets if we get enough positive earnings between now and market open. Supermicro's fifty billion stock collapse underscore risk of AI hype, according to this article. Now, I always tell you guys that I'd like buying distressed assets. I like when an asset that is fundamentally sound goes down in price a lot because of something that happened that is temporary. but doesn't really impact the fundamentals of the company. In the case of Supermicro, even though I thought of it, I decided not to take advantage of the current situation. By the way, if you're unfamiliar, the reason why Supermicro is down is because their auditor, Ernest & Young, resigned as their auditor. And this is a company that has had questions around its financial statements and their accuracy. Sorry. And they actually had a similar issue in twenty eighteen. So they're kind of a chronic. A chronic problem in this regard. And to quote Ernestine Young, They were unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management. Now, that's a very bad statement to hear about any company. And so in light of this, the problem with investing in Supermicrocomputer at this time is that, okay, yeah, the PE is telling me fourteen four, which is very cheap. The S&P average is close to twenty five, but Is it really fourteen four? Do I really know the earnings of this company? I mean, the financial statements are kind of under question in terms of their accuracy. So maybe it isn't fourteen four if their earnings were overstated. So it's tough to say, okay, this is a great opportunity because the fundamentals are sound. And, you know, it's lost close to, you know, fifty billion in market cap. It's tough to say because we don't know what their numbers actually are. So this is why I didn't touch it. And, you know, when I buy stock in a company, I try to look at it as I'm partnering with the management of that company. I don't like to do business with people that I can't trust. I think that's. One of the cardinal cardinal sins of. of a business is getting in business with someone that you can't trust fully. And so I don't want to get in business with Supermicro computer so long as their management is what it is and their history is what it is. So passed on that, even though Supermicro may actually overshoot on the downside. especially considering the percentage of shares that are shorted is close to twenty percent. So it's high likelihood that it overshoots on the downside and creates a good opportunity. But like I said, if you can't trust the people you're doing business with, you're probably not doing business with the right people. So one of the major headlines of today was BYD. By the way, I didn't know this, but BYD stands for Build Your Dreams. So that's kind of cool. BYD just took the lead in its race against Tesla. So this is the headline, and it is an asinine headline that is pretty typical with these types of headlines that are trying to get your attention. Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD announced revenue of just over twenty eight billion in the three months ending September. So, yeah, revenue was more than Tesla in their most recent quarter. So let's remind ourselves of Tesla's total revenues. Those were around twenty five billion in its most recent. Quarter. That being said, Brian Boyle here brings up some good points, which is that. Unlike Tesla, BYD has embraced the increasingly high demand for hybrid cars. In fact, its plug-in hybrid sales well outpaced its EV sales in the latest quarter, around six hundred eighty five thousand units to four hundred and forty three thousand units. So if you take hybrid out of the question, Then in terms of an EV maker, no, BYD has not surpassed Tesla in terms of selling EVs. Now, do I think that the car of the future is an EV or is it a hybrid? No, it's an EV. The hybrid is just a transitory stage. We're going from ICE to pure EV. We already know what the destination is. And so eventually all of these hybrid cars are... know they're not gonna they're not gonna sell and so byd is going to have to move to pure evs this popularity that hybrid is enjoying right now is a temporary popularity that will give way to pure evs there's just no reason to have all of the components of an ice car and all of the components of an ev car on the same vehicle it just increases the potential points of failure increases the complexity lowers their reliability and so on. And hybrid sales marked a seventy five percent increase year over year. So offsetting slowing sales slowing sales growth in its EV units. So that's a big problem actually for BYD. The fact that the vehicle of the future is actually slowing in sales, whereas hybrid, which is the temporary solution, is increasing. So eventually it's going to have to solve this problem. And not to mention, when you talk about a company's financials, it's more important to look at the bottom line as opposed to the top line. Net income for BYD was actually one point six billion dollars. So that's after expenses. So we're looking at profitability here, what the company gets to keep a net income for Tesla was actually two point one six. So close to fifty percent more or two point five, if you're looking at the non-GAAP standards. So in light of this, I mean, not only are we talking about a company that is producing hybrids and not EVs, so we're comparing apples and oranges, but the profitability of Tesla is higher than the profitability of BYD by a large margin and also Tesla has a lot of other things going for it. So it has energy generation and storage services, but also the elephant in the room, full self-driving, which doesn't appear BYD has anything comparable to. And full self-driving should be very high margin. So I don't think that this headline is a fair one. It just took the lead in its race against Tesla. I think that the details matter here. The context matters here. And while I do think BYD is probably the number two company, it's still not the number one. And I do want to make sure that I'm always being objective in my analysis here. It's very possible that, you know, you start, you hold a position long enough, you start viewing things in a biased way. I try not to do that with my analysis of Tesla. If you do think that I am being biased, then let me know in the comments. But I think I've been pretty objective here. And I think that Tesla still holds really the lead position in pure EV manufacturing and a bunch of other stuff that's going to come, inshallah. All right, going to go to the questions. Assalamualaikum, Al-Gawish. How do you see AMD stock? It's not a bad company, actually. I saw today that the semiconductors were doing terribly across the board. I mean, I think partially this is because of what happened with Supermicro computer. But partially it's because of earnings kind of stunk for, or at least guidance for AMD and other companies in the space. By the way, I think Intel reports earnings today. But honestly, I think that some people who are saying, oh, well, this is, you know, semiconductors are perhaps better overbought, there was too much hype around AI. I don't think that's true. I think that AI is... It's not hyped enough. I think it's really one of the most important inventions, developments in human history. And the growth is going to be spectacular. So I think there's a lot of money to be made in this space still. I think people were saying maybe it's overhyped. You just don't understand it. Dr. Khaled, nice to see you. It's my first time. It's my first time being in the market around elections. Anything to look for in the market? So typically there's a post-election rally, actually. And so, you know, that's something that we can look forward to. Let's hope that the transition is smooth and there aren't a lot of question marks around who really won. Thank you. I hope you feel better. I really appreciate that. Assalamualaikum, Rakan. Hope you are feeling better. Thanks, Amir. I appreciate that. Waalaikumsalam. Can the argument for PLL being comfortable be used for M-phase as well? Yeah, it can if you think that the, if you made the projections based on their guidance and you've said, okay, based on their guidance and based on, you know, my understanding of their outstanding debt and the interest rate on that debt, It's actually going to clear the two point five percent hurdle that we have that is be under it. Then, yeah, I think you can make that argument. Let's see if I had again. I'm concerned with the minors and how most people seem to be. More interested in MicroStrategy as an investment. To be honest, MicroStrategy, I mean, it keeps going up. I heard that they're raising forty two billion, but they're I mean, the value of the company versus I think the value of the company is now close to. Fifty billion. And the value of the crypto that they hold is close to twenty billion, if I'm not mistaken. MicroStrategy. And so the pullback on this could be like a really rough one. The percentage short on this name is close to twenty percent. That's probably for good reason. Yeah, the market cap is forty five billion. And. Last time I checked, they had around twenty billion in crypto. And in terms of like a business, there is no business, so it's basically just. you know, converting Fiat. It's a machine for converting Fiat, converting dollars into Bitcoin. So they raise money by issuing shares, sometimes debt, and they take that money and they buy Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price goes up and then they can raise more money. So it's kind of an infinite money glitch that Michael Saylor has been taking advantage of. But at the end of the day, I mean, it's, there's no business there. It's losing money as a, as a company and in terms of like cashflow. So it's constantly having to raise money. So if we look at their financials, I mean, this is a, this is a Revenue is a hundred million in the latest quarter, and that's not even profitable. So EBITDA is negative two hundred million. So this is purely a speculation on the price of Bitcoin and the ability for MicroStrategy to continue to raise money to buy more Bitcoin and the hype that is anticipated around Bitcoin since we're still in the midst of a bull run. But this has to correct in a big way. And when it does, it's going to be painful for a lot of holders. Also, in terms of like my comfort level with MicroStrategy, it does use debt as part of its business model. So I'm not comfortable with it. It's now a good time to buy into the miners or would you invest directly into Bitcoin? Well, it depends on how much volatility you like to have to deal with. So I think the miners have a, you know, in the near term, have more upside than Bitcoin on a percentage basis, in the near term that is. But they too will pull back in a big way, unless you have miners that really invest in high performance computing and utilize their assets in that regard. So, you know, if you're getting in with the intention of, you know, this is a trade, then there's some meat left on the bone there. But if you want to live an easier life, then directly into Bitcoin is the way to go. Rashad says, As-salamu alaykum, brother. Well, thank you so much, Rashad. I really appreciate that. Hannibal says, As-salamu alaykum, brother. As-salamu alaykum, brother Hannibal. Many economists claim that the era of low interest rates and low inflation is over. How are our companies positioned for a potential high inflation and interest rate environment? So I don't think that we'll have a high interest rate environment, not as high as it is right now, because the government really can't afford it. And I would actually go further than that and say that if the Fed can't find a reason to Cut interest rates. Then a crisis will be manufactured. To justify cutting interest rates. Because that's what you do. When you're indebted up to your eyeballs. And you can't pay your bills. So. I don't think there. I think interest rates are going down. They have to. Yeah. Today was a slaughterhouse. That's fine. I mean that's par for the course. And I think that. when you feel that you're not catching the falling knife, maybe a good idea to take advantage of the fall, because I do think that there will be a recovery, inshallah. Taskeen says, Jazakallah khair. Wayakum, Taskeen, for still making the live voice being unwell. Thank you, Taskeen. I really appreciate that. Thank you for coming. Abdullah says, glad I got out of SMCI before all of this. Alhamdulillah, I'm glad. I'm happy that happened, Abdullah. Kid Barrier Ignite says, salamu alaikum, salamu alaikum, rahmatullah. Khan says, salamu alaikum, alaikum salam. Is BYD comfortable from a share perspective? So I think, so one question I would have, so off the top of my head, I don't know, I'll have to do an analysis there, but I think, I think it probably is. And. But I think one thing to look at is their supply chain. They are based out of China. And so you want to make sure that nothing like Uyghur slave labor or any slave labor is used in their supply chain, which is something that has afflicted many companies that are based in China. Pocket options is an Islamic platform that sells options. Does that make options on this platform, Helen? I'd have to look at what the heck they're doing. M Khan says, could you please explain the best way for cashing out on some profits? So as I always say, the best way to cash out on profits on an asset that you think is still, you know, has potential, hasn't reached its potential. is to say I'm going to take enough out so that I'm happy. I'm still happy if it still goes up and reaches the potential that I think it has. But if it reverses, I'm still happy. I'm happy that I took and sold some. So I've realized those profits. So that's how I would do. Now, if you don't think that it still has upside, then just sell. And it's fine if you sell in one fell swoop. If you change your thesis on something and time has come to sell, then just sell it. sell it all. You don't have to necessarily DCA out of it. I won't make specific recommendations or give you numbers here, but hopefully what I said is useful. Pocket options are binary options, which do not give you the right to exercise. That's making a guitar. It kind of says, yeah. So if pocket options are binary options, like you get paid, if something happens, you don't get paid. If it doesn't happen, that's just betting on the outcome of something without any exchange of goods or services. So that's just textbook gambling. you still see bitcoin reaching a hundred k before the year end I think it's possible and these things happen very quickly so you know if you miss the days where the move happens and they're they're probably a very few days then you won't experience the the upside that the asset has But I still think it's very possible. And to be honest, the argument for Bitcoin is just growing stronger and stronger with every day. I think that a Trump presidency would probably see more appreciation in Bitcoin in the near term, but even a Kamala presidency would support Bitcoin because it's just going to be very rich in handouts and inflationary spending by the government and therefore making the argument for Bitcoin stronger and stronger. The worst thing that could happen is if so, um, Yay asks, Salaam alaikum, hope you feel better. Well, thank you so much. I was wondering how you think the elections will affect the implied volatility of the market. I think the worst thing that can happen is if we don't have like a clear cut victory and there's a lot of sort of back and forth about who actually won the victory. I already, who actually won the election. I already know that if Trump loses, he's going to claim it was rigged. And yeah, I don't think that was the case last time. I'm all for voter ID. I think that makes a lot of sense. I'm all for securing the vote. I don't understand why we're using electronic machines to count the vote. They should be counted by hand because electronic machines just have... and registering the votes by electronic machine. I mean, it just creates a, even if not a reality of manipulation, it creates, it opens the opportunity for manipulation to be perceived with the electronic voting machine. So I don't think we should use that. Everything should be, you know, As manual as possible, no technology involved. And so back to your question, if there's any sort of disruption that happens with regards to the results of the election and challenging them, then that could really increase the volatility in the market. Let's hope, inshallah, that doesn't happen. Salam, brother. Qasim asks, wa alaikum salam, Qasim. I love your name, by the way. I've always thought Qasem was a really nice name for a boy. It's a tough name, a masculine name, high T. More, I think we should, for boys, we should give them high T names and not give them the soft, woke names that a lot of people are opting for that don't have any like, that aren't part of our history. And we should use the Arabic pronunciation. Like it's not Noah. It's Noah. It's not Afan. I'm sorry. It's not Jonah. It's Noah. Any Salon competition on the horizon? No, I don't think that there is. Right now, at least Solana is the... I'm sorry. I'm so... It's not... As it relates to Solana, the stats appear to support its leadership still. Where's the guy reading questions off of? Who's the guy you're talking about? So maybe I'll start showing comments on this on the screen, inshallah. Is there even enough critical metals to replace the majority of ice and hybrids with EV? Yeah, I do think. I mean, lithium is one of the most common materials on Earth. Still think BTC to one hundred K by and sorry, am I reading this again? Please don't repeat your questions just so I don't read them out loud again. What do you think of the everything bubble? Do you think it's a real thing? How do you protect yourself against it? I think the assets that we're invested in have fair values or are below fair values and That's why we have a watch list and we make sure that we keep track of valuations. Yeah, the infinite money glitch. That's what some people have referred to micro strategies, a business model as. Ali says, As-salamu alaykum, wa alaykum as-salam, brother. Just want to say salam, new member here. May Allah give you a quick recovery. Well, thank you so much, Ali. Do you think AI will beat market analysis done by humans? I think it's a tool that can be used for market analysis, but I think just the sign-off in many cases will require a human sign-off. Thank you, Qasem. Appreciate that. No, I'm really glad you guys are asking these questions. Honestly, this is no problem for me. I really enjoy answering your questions and interacting with you guys. Do leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a member if you aren't already. I hope this live was useful to you. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.