The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Only One Way!

Rakaan Kayali

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Only One Way!
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro: Election Anxiety in Markets
  •  Stock Updates: Tesla, Bitdeer, and Solar
  •  Bitcoin and Altcoins: Trends and Projections
  •  Meme Coins: Dogecoin and the Meme Cycle
  •  Key Election States & Muslim Vote
  •  Bitcoin's History Post-Elections
  •  Market Outlook: Fed Rate Decision & Final Thoughts


CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum. The name of the game today in the markets is election jitters. The VIX has been holding steady above twenty. The good news is that the elections are tomorrow and so we should be able to put this behind us. Let's hope if the election goes smoothly and if we have a clear winner. Otherwise, there may be a lot of volatility in the markets. That being said, there's reason to be optimistic regardless of what happens. And I'll go over that in this live. Go ahead and leave a like if you enjoy these lives and let's get started. So Tesla was down today at two forty two range. Bitdeer, Bitdeer, IOS Energy and a lot of other Bitcoin miners took it on the chin today, down massively after they were out massively last Monday. Other names, pretty much a lot of them are in the red. We did get first solar was up a five percent, Enphase is up a four percent. So solar companies were doing good today. Gold at twenty seven hundred holding pretty steady. Bitcoin fell back down to sixty seven five after having reached this seventy three thousand dollar all time high. Doge is still doing very well, very resilient at sixteen cents. So while other cryptos did see a pretty big pullback, Doge did not experience the same thing. And it stands to benefit a lot, I think, if Trump wins the presidency and I think crypto in general. So if you look at on the day doge was one of the few names that was up today everything else was in the red if you look on the week that's the same and on the month doge was one of the biggest And I really think that this crypto cycle will be defined by meme coins, because I think that as investors, we have grown mature enough to the ways of the crypto world that we understand, I think, most things. investors understand that really utility tokens are just meme tokens with longer stories to them but they're all they're all meme tokens and so I think that the pure plays on memes, if you will, will do the best in this crypto cycle. And it's about time for the altcoins to get going here. If you look at... The altcoin season index, we are at a very low level at twenty seven at twenty five. We get into Bitcoin season basically. So we're almost at Bitcoin season, a far cry away from the seventy five score needed for altcoin season. with that being said if you look at last year it was around you know november third november fourth where altcoin season or the alts started to gain ground against bitcoin and then altcoin season peaked in january so I don't think it's that far-fetched to get a repeat of that behavior this time around it won't be exact but maybe very similar Now, if we go to the headline of today and basically what is controlling the markets and will be controlling the markets for at least the next twenty four, forty eight hours, the elections, we did see a bounce back in Donald Trump's odds of winning at least per the betting markets. So Donald Trump is back at fifty five with Harris at forty five. Now, this number does change based on who you're checking. So if you look at Polymarket, Polymarket actually has more volume than Kalshi does in terms of actual bets placed. And Trump is at fifty eight. Harris is at forty one. Now, this is a big difference compared to what the polls are saying. So if you look at the polls. For example, this site, Two Hundred and Seventy to Win, it is showing Democrats in the lead. Now, there is a well-documented bias towards the Democratic Party in mainstream media and Perhaps this is impacting polling as well, wherein the people who are doing the polls are calling their network for these poll results and their networks happen to be more democratic leaning. That's just one theory, although it's very hard to tell. But the money, as I showed you guys, the money is betting on a Trump victory. So we'll see. Now, there are a few states that are going to determine who wins. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. These are the swing states that are going to determine who ends up winning. And interestingly enough, Michigan, Wisconsin, they do have a large Muslim population. So the Muslim vote is actually quite important in this election. Now I've been asked about my position. I think that both these candidates are bad and it's a tragedy that the election has come down to these two candidates. Because I think both of them are, you know, from a character perspective, quite lacking. From an intelligence perspective, quite lacking as well. Basically lacking all around. But I do think that it's important to get out and vote. Even if you vote for a third-party candidate who has almost no chance of winning, that's fine because... I think that's better than not voting at all because who voted, that is recorded. And so communities that vote end up getting catered to more than communities that don't vote so this is my position I think that it's important to vote doesn't really matter who you vote for but it's important that you have a a habit of voting because then you become a a part of a constituency that is catered to by politicians when they are running for office. At least that's my two cents on the position. As it relates to what Bitcoin does after a US election, I have some good news for you, which is that Bitcoin tends to rally regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans take office. So if you look at And I happen to think that, yes, Republicans in this case winning would be more bullish in the near term for Bitcoin, but I don't think that's the case. But over the longer run, I think that a democratic win would end up basically supporting the thesis for Bitcoin, which is runaway spending and inflation of fiat to no end, and will also cause Bitcoin to appreciate. Now, something that will not, I think, perform the same or an asset that will not perform the same with both candidates are altcoins. So altcoins may actually get absolutely clobbered under a democratic administration if the democrats are to win and they may do really well and in fact we may see you know alt season kick off if trump and the republicans win Now, as if that was not enough, we have a lot of interesting economic data that is scheduled to come out this week. The most important, I shouldn't say economic data, but economic events, rather, to happen this week, Thursday, November seventh, we have the interest rate decision by the Fed. And on Friday, we have the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report. Now, if you look at the probabilities for what the Fed is going to do. Basically, the market is pricing in a near certainty that the Fed is going to cut interest rates by twenty five basis points. And so we may have I mean, this is the best case scenario this week would be something like. Trump winning, at least the best case for for risk assets. Trump winning in a clear-cut victory where there's no challenges to that victory and the results being announced shortly after the election. They don't take too long to be announced. We get the twenty-five basis point cut and on the heels of Trump's victory, we get a China stimulus as well, because they're going to want to stimulate their economy in anticipation of some adversity that may come with a Trump administration. And because their economy right now is in quite the malaise and needs some stimulus to get things kick-started there. So if that were to happen, that would be a very bullish scenario for markets. The worst case scenario is that we don't have a clear cut winner and back and forth goes on for a long time. And the election results aren't announced this week even. And maybe it takes until next week. That would be the worst case scenario for markets. the elections will probably peak prior to the election results actually being official. So even if we get election results declared next week, we may get a peak in nervousness this week in the markets. And we'll get, you know, sort of those jitters that the market has been suffering from flushed out of the system, inshallah. Salam Rashad nice to see you it's great to hear your voice back are you having a live tomorrow inshallah I will yeah and so we'll do some election coverage inshallah Gaming with Fahd says Assalamualaikum everyone do leave a like guys if you haven't left a like already So with regards to Forex, if you're actually trading the currencies themselves and not derivatives of the currencies, I'm fine with that. But typically with Forex, you're trading derivatives of the currencies. So just contracts and not the underlying asset. That's something that I am not fine with. All right, guys, if you haven't become a PIF member yet, do become a member. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.