The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Markets are primed to soar!

Rakaan Kayali

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Markets are primed to soar!
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Market Overview: Bullish Momentum and Bitcoin Surge
  •  Fed Rate Cut and December Guidance: 75% Chance of Another Cut
  •  Stock Updates: Tesla, Bitdeer, and Bitcoin's New All-Time High
  •  Election Impact: Pro-Crypto Congress and Senate Majority
  •  US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal Explained
  •  Bitcoin ETF Inflows and Market Sentiment
  •  Historical Patterns: Q4 Bitcoin Returns and Seasonality
  •  Potential Chinese Stimulus as a Catalyst for Markets
  •  Viewer Q&A: Solar Stocks Post-Election


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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Another day, another million dollars, as they say. As-salamu alaykum, today is Thursday, November seventh, and we continue on our bullish path and our predictions for the end of the year continue to play out, alhamdulillah. Today, the star of the show, that is the markets, was Bitcoin. And we got what we wanted from the Fed today. So the Fed mentioned, well, they not only cut interest rates today, twenty five basis points, as was expected, but what the market was looking for was guidance towards the general Fed position and what they're going to do in December. And The Fed said, Jerome Powell mentioned, we think that even with today's cut, policy is still restrictive, which means that they're looking to cut again. And currently the markets are assigning a seventy five percent chance of a twenty five basis point cut in December. So that's really what the market wanted. And so this is adding fuel to the rally that we are experiencing. So looking at the indices today, Dow Jones was flat. NASDAQ is up one and a half percentage points. S&P is three quarters of a percentage point. And the VIX is down another six percent. So really, a lot of fear is draining out of the market. tesla had another great day at two ninety six again I said you know by the end of the year we'd probably uh we may see three hundred for uh tesla and it's looking like we may see three hundred by the end of the week uh bit there was up four point seven percent one of the better performing miners today but I still think there's a lot of room to run here for miners if Bitcoin continues to run as it has been. And looking at the price of Bitcoin, it is achieving new all time highs every day now. So we touched seventy seven today and now we're at seventy six seven. Doge is at just over nineteen cents. Sol is really close to two hundred. So congrats to all holders there. Now, looking at the not only the Trump win, but other other results from the recent election and it's all kind of points towards crypto doing well in this coming period bitcoin and altcoins as well so if we look at the house of representatives and the senate the two legislative bodies in the united states and looking at the count of pro crypto candidates versus anti-crypto candidates that were elected we had uh Pro crypto candidates elected to the House of Representatives versus one hundred and seventeen anti crypto. And for the Senate, eighteen pro versus twelve anti crypto candidates. So both houses have gone pro crypto, as has the presidency. So there's a lot that can be done here that is conducive of a strong bull run for crypto. Now, Not only did we get the legislative bodies in a pro-crypto stance, but also there are some anti-crypto figures that are on their way out. Gary Gensler was seen with the Open to Work badge on his LinkedIn profile. So if you know Gary Gensler, if he's a first or second connection, maybe you can help him out or not. depending on what you think of the guy. And I did find this kind of interesting. So, you know, after betting on who was going to win the election subsided, we knew the result. Now, people are so addicted to betting, they'll bet on anything. So now the bet on Kalshi is about what is the margin of victory that Trump is going to have when all the votes are counted. And there's about a hundred million dollars being traded on this one platform, just to answer this one question. So there's a big gambling problem here in the United States, and it's only getting worse because they keep promoting it wherever you look. Um, in other news, uh, Bitcoin did reach the number nine spot as the, uh, in terms of, uh, rankings for most valuable assets, it beat Facebook. So now it has a greater market cap than Facebook does, and it is well on its way to beating silver out and then Saudi Aramco out and may replace gold actually that's the thesis is that bitcoin will eventually make its way to the top of this chart where gold sits now and be the most valuable asset on earth and that will be quite the milestone in human history where you know something that was created by an anonymous user that isn't really producing any cash flows it's just a software it's a network of uh you know, twenty one million tokens, that thing becomes the most valuable asset on Earth. Very interesting. I do want to remind you all with because we do mention, oh, well, Trump is a pro crypto candidate. I do want to remind everyone with what what he said on the campaign trail. Because I think it's a short clip, but I think that it is quite informative. Bitcoin is going to the moon, as we say. It's going to the moon. I want America to be the nation that leads the way. And that's what's going to happen. So you're going to be very happy with me. So that's very FOMO inducing for crypto enthusiasts. Now, something that you may or may not be aware of is there has been a big, well, rumors that the United States may have a crypto reserve. And that's really one of the biggest catalysts that this asset could ever hope for. So the proposal says that all Bitcoin acquired. So to ensure the long term stability and security of the strategic Bitcoin reserve, which is being proposed, the secretary shall hold all Bitcoin acquired through the Bitcoin purchase program for not less than twenty years. So anything acquired in this Bitcoin reserve is going to be held for twenty years. This is a proposal. It's still not adopted yet, but this is what's being floated around. And their proposal is in more detail is saying that the secretary shall establish a Bitcoin purchase program, which shall purchase not more than two hundred thousand bitcoins per year over a five year period for a total acquisition of one million Bitcoin. So imagine the United States goes after trying to acquire one million Bitcoin. And it has unlimited resources, basically, in terms of fiat that it can deploy towards this end. And every day there's constant buying pressure from the United States. And not only that, the competitors to the United States, think China or Russia, are seeing this. They're seeing the United States buying an increasing amount of this scarce asset. They're going to also want to start buying as well and maybe they do they establish for their own countries crypto reserves and other countries around the world do so as well imagine what could happen to the price of bitcoin denominated in fiat when an unlimited supply of fiat is chasing chasing this limited supply asset that is bitcoin this could this could be really explosive to the price of bitcoin When you look at Bitcoin ETF flows yesterday alone, we had six hundred and twenty one million in net flows to the Bitcoin ETF. So this thing is even though it's at all time highs, everything is pointing in the right direction for this asset. And historically speaking, when you're looking at whether it's quarterly returns or monthly returns, we're at the sweet spot really when it comes to Bitcoin. So on average in Q four, which is where we're in Q four right now, the average return for Bitcoin is eighty two percent. That's the highest average followed by Q one. That's the highest average of any quarter. And in terms of monthly returns for November, it is the highest average monthly return for Bitcoin compared to any other month during the year with an average of forty three percent. So everything is lining up here. You know, on the political front, things are lining up on the macro front. People and things are lining up and On the statistics front, things are lining up. Everything is lining up for this asset. So I think there's still room to run here. And sometimes the hardest thing about investing is sitting on your hands. But I do think that sometimes having a bias towards inaction in times like this may be good. I'm not saying don't take profits. Always take profits. That's... That's just a rule that you should always abide by. But understand where we are right now. And not only that, I think there's an additional macro catalyst that is on its way. in the form of Chinese stimulus. I think that would be very bullish for crypto as well. And I think that Chinese stimulus is coming on account that Trump has won and he has promised to impose a lot of tariffs on Chinese goods. And so the Chinese government wants to make sure that it gets ahead of what is appearing to be a crisis that it may have to deal with from an economic standpoint. It's already in sort of economic malaise, the Chinese economy is. And so they don't want things to worsen even more. So I do expect a Chinese stimulus and just the news of this Chinese stimulus will act as yet another catalyst for the market. So alhamdulillah, we're in good times. And with that, let's take some questions. I'll start with Ali. Ali says, market's so bullish. Yes, indeed. Wa alaikum salam. Salam, Brother Shoaib. Salam, top winner. We'll talk about our plans. Nice to see you, Middle Class Investing. Thank you. We'll talk about opportunities as well with PIF members and where we see opportunities to deploy cache, if any, and where we see opportunities to take some chips off the table as well. Since Elon's on Trump's team now, don't you think solar and cleaner energy isn't as bearish as it was supposed to be? Well, actually, so let's look at... So Enphase really, I mean, now it's at seventy one dollars per share. Guys, this is this is very low for Enphase. And they solar companies have really taken a beating after Trump won on anticipation that maybe some of the incentives that solar companies were enjoying may be rescinded. but I think that the market may be going a bit too harsh on these solar companies I think um you know there may for people asking you know where to deploy cash there may be some real opportunities here we'll see what we buy thoughts on quantum computing um There isn't a name in my mind regarding quantum computing that I want to put money behind. Not yet, at least. Any Black Friday membership deals? Yes, inshallah, there will be a membership deal. So tune in for that. If you don't want to wait, the link to become a member is in the description. All right. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. If I've made you money, leave a like and subscribe. Hit the notification bell. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.