The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Market Health Check: Still Good? 😎
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Market Health Check: Still Good? 😎
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Market Overview
- Bitcoin’s Resilience in the Market
- Small Caps, Tesla, and Market Health
- Stock Updates: Bitdeer, HIMSS, IIS
- Gold and Upcoming CPI Volatility
- Fear & Greed Index Insights
- Altcoin Season Approaching?
- Meme Coins and Crypto Trends
- Bitcoin’s 6-18 Rule Strategy
- Final Thoughts and Member Shout-outs
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Assalamu alaikum everyone. I hope you're doing well today. A slight pullback in the markets, but Bitcoin has been very resilient. Eighty eight thousand just under eighty eight thousand. Keep in mind, the high was just over ninety thousand. And so Bitcoin has really displayed some healthy characteristics. One of the main appeal for Bitcoin has been its uncorrelated nature or what is supposed to be an uncorrelated nature with other assets and We're kind of seeing this in the latest movements for Bitcoin. It has been a lot stronger than the market generally. And crypto, I would say, meme coins specifically, we'll take a look at that, have been stronger than Bitcoin. many other places in the market. Talking about the market, the Dow Jones was down point eight six percent. Nasdaq was flat. The index that took the biggest loss today was the Russell or small cap stock index, and it was down one point seven five percent. But I look at this and I say, this is the sign of a healthy market. We've run a lot as of late, and it's good to know that investors are still discerning. They're still acting in a rational way. And so it makes sense when you have the type of run that we had to have a cooling down period, have a digestion period for the market. And that's what we experienced today. Nothing to worry about in my assessment. Tesla gave people an opportunity to get in at, I think, a lot more attractive prices today at three twenty eight. We were touching on three sixties yesterday after hours and I think we'll be back there not too long from now so I I really think that you know tesla's run is just getting started here uh Bitcoin miners took a breather today as well. We saw Bitdeer down three percent. IIS Energy down close to three percent. HIMSS down four percent. PLL was up. Piedmont Lithium, that is. It reported earnings earlier today. Thought it was solid earnings. They're doing everything that they need to be doing. in order to operate efficiently. And really the only missing piece here is for lithium prices to recover, which I think will happen, inshallah. Walaikum salam, Muhammad Hassan, nice to see you. Looking at other assets, gold is in the twenty five hundreds now. It was closer to twenty seven hundred not too long ago, actually breached twenty seven hundred. And the market is anticipating some volatility when the CPI, PPI numbers come out later today. Sorry, later this week. Those are the inflation numbers and the producer price numbers. So that will be coming out Wednesday and Thursday. We might get some volatility from that right now. As it relates to the probabilities for interest rate cuts, the market is pricing in a sixty two percent chance for a December cut. If we meet expectations with regards to those two inflation numbers, then probably there's not going to be much change here on the probabilities for a cut. If we get a higher number, obviously the probability for a cut becomes smaller. And if we get a smaller number for inflation, then the probability may increase and that would be bullish for markets. Now, When you look at things like fear and greed index, now different sources will calculate the fear and greed index using different inputs. So take whatever fear and index reading with a grain of salt and understand what method they're using to calculate this number. But if you look at something like CoinMarketCap, they have their fear and greed index at eighty seven. So this may get investors and rightly so kind of worried that, hey, maybe we're This is the time to sell. Now, in my assessment, this is not the time to sell. Maybe trimming profits. I think that's always healthy. You'll never grow broke taking profits. But selling in a big way, a large percentage of your holdings, I think it's still early. So if you look at the crypto market cap, and this may also be getting some people nervous, we're right under three trillion. Yesterday we actually breached three trillion. Last cycle, the high was right around where we are right now in terms of market cap for crypto. But if you look from cycle to cycle, the highs tend to be higher each cycle. So the cycle before that, the market peaked in terms of market cap for crypto at around So we went from eight hundred billion to three trillion in last cycle. And now the question is, where are we going to peak this cycle? I don't think it's three trillion, which is where we are right now. I think it's much higher, probably between four and five trillion, if I had to guess. Now, in terms of the season we're in, we're still in Bitcoin season. We're not in altcoin season. Or let me say we're closer to Bitcoin season than we are altcoin season. And this means, I think, that there is some opportunity in altcoins to position ourselves because typically what happens is after Bitcoin season comes altcoin season. And when does this happen? It happens when people... look at Bitcoin, look at the price it reached and the percentage returns that they can expect. And they're no longer that impressed. And they say, hey, maybe I should move down the market cap ladder to the smaller market caps. They may offer greater return. And I think this is the reasoning for the Ethereum inflows that happened, which were the largest inflows that I think Ethereum got this entire year. And I really think the main reason for this is people who don't know anything about crypto, don't know what they're doing, but they do know that Ethereum is next in market cap compared to a Bitcoin. And therefore, it may have more upside at this particular point than Bitcoin does. And so they've allocated some dollars to it. This is, I think, an opportunity for Ethereum holders. if they're in the green again to maybe reassess their position and see if they want to reallocate. Now, this is not financial advice, obviously. This is just my assessment, what I would do and make do with that what you will. And another sign that may get people worried is that we did have the largest one day move in terms of dollar amount moved yesterday in the price of bitcoin the daily move was plus eight thousand dollars in the price of bitcoin but the price of bitcoin is a lot higher and you can expect on a dollar term for the moves to be higher and higher when measured in dollar terms but if you look on a percentage basis actually the move that we experienced Yesterday was ranked number forty nine in terms of largest moves in Bitcoin's history. And in fact, we've had larger moves this year. If you look at August, for example, we went from fifty five thousand to sixty one thousand, which was on a percentage basis, a move of eleven point nine percent versus ten point three seven percent that we experienced yesterday. What I like to look at instead of these metrics, which I don't think give you the full story, something like an MVRVZ score, which tells you how much profit there is in the system and therefore how likely people are to sell, we're still at right around the three. And you can see that the danger zone is basically between a seven and a nine. When we approach the danger zone, that's when we want to really start trimming. By the way, before I go any further, I would be remiss not to mention we are running a promotion. If you use code BULLRUN, you get thirty five percent off any of our plans. There is a limited number of times you can. This code can be used. So if you're interested to use it and sign up and become a member and inshallah we can take care, take advantage of this bull run together and a review that and thank you for all those who are leaving reviews in our discord I will continue to pick these reviews and share them with non-members who may be thinking about joining this is from colonel meow cool name. I think I already told you, but I want to repeat it. Alhamdulillah, since joining PIF, the returns I realized are multiple times more than what I ever made in five years of traditional institutions and ETFs. And since I take a more risky approach. Until now, the returns have exceeded PIF's goals. So I'm more than satisfied. And I recommend your platform to anyone I know who might be interested. So thank you, Colonel Meow for that. The code itself, the link to sign up is in the description. All right. So as it relates to Bitcoin, really the best strategy has been... And keep in mind, we've only had three halvings, right? So the sample size is not that large. But going off of the data that we do have, the best strategy as it relates to Bitcoin is... the six-eighteen rule, which basically says if you buy six months before halving and you sell eighteen months after the halving, you will, in fact, beat the results of someone who just bought and held. So you can see here the blue line represents the buy and hold strategy. The red is the halving, so ignore that. But the blue line represents what you would have if you just bought and hold and held. The green line represents what you would have If you follow the six months before, eight months after rule. So buy six months before, sell eight months after. Eighteen months after the halving puts us around Q four of twenty twenty five. Now, I expect to dramatically turn my position well before that. But if you're just following this rule, then this is what that says. Just gives you a sort of a ballpark of where we are right now. And when in doubt and you're questioning the entire thesis behind Bitcoin, just remember this. The fiat money, in this case, the US money supply, that's the green line, that's going vertically up. And it's going to do that for as far as the eye can see from where we're standing right now. and the bitcoin money supply plateaus that's in orange plateaus at so if you are pricing the orange in terms of the green where one has a limit and the other doesn't then you can expect over time the orange when priced in the green to go up over time that's basically the thesis in a nutshell There's an unlimited supply of fiat that is going to just increase with time. There's a limited supply of Bitcoin. If you price Bitcoin in fiat over time, that number should go up. It's really as simple as that. So if you have relatives that are asking you about Bitcoin now because it's in the news, then this is basically what you need to tell them. All right. So as it relates to the cryptocurrencies and what's moving the most. So there has been no let up in Dogecoin. It just continues to go up. Congratulations to everyone who was following the PI of crypto portfolio. I have taken profits along the way, but I still have, you know, seventy five percent of our position. And I'm hoping we get some pullback at some point because if we do, I will buy again. But so far, I mean, this thing has just been chugging along. But as I've always said, I'm good if it continues to go up because I have the majority of my position, the vast majority of my position still there. And I'm okay if it goes down as well. So I'm happy either way. We are seeing other... Meme coins do very well. Nero and Bonk. Anything on Ethereum, basically, I don't buy. Cardano is up seventy two percent. I think it's because that guy, Charles Hoskinson, was mentioning or promoting himself as perhaps a crypto figure in the next Trump administration. I don't trust that guy and I'm not a fan of Cardano. So make of that what you will. Again, here with Cardano, I think the same applies to its holders as applies to Ethereum holders, which is that maybe you take this opportunity to reassess your allocations. Once again, that's financial advice, just how I think about it. And when you look at the top performers, and this is going to really inform my strategy moving forward, and it fits perfectly with my understanding of crypto and what I've been saying on this channel for the longest time, which is that the only use case for crypto that makes any sense to me so far, not for blockchain, but for crypto, is a means of exchange, a store of value. And meme coins fit that bill. Most of them are scams. Actually, ninety nine point nine percent of them are scams. But there are, you know. Two or three diamonds in the rough, I think that have good prospects of doing very well. If you look at their return as a group. The weighted average was one hundred and five percent in the last month. So pretty amazing here. The next this Gen one smart contracts, thirty five percent. So just going off of. categories, I'm much more inclined to look at memes as potential candidates for investments versus other candidates. But obviously, we'll have to do our due diligence on every token. And we still have some time, but I think it is time to make allocations in anticipation of altcoin season, inshallah. All right. So with that, let's take some questions. Oh, no, please say it isn't so, Muhammad. Muhammad says, Kramer just said Tesla will continue to go up. Let's hope this one time. I mean, did he say that yesterday? I mean, maybe, you know, today is just in response to that and then it will continue to go up. All right, so hear me, dear, cool. Assalamualaikum, walaikumussalam. Thanks, Abdullah Hassan. Waalaikumussalam, nice to see you. Hear me, dear, cool. So join the PIF membership. You will like it. Thanks, brother. I really appreciate that. Wa alaikum salam, everyone. Yeah, the VIX was flat. Nice to see you, Dr. Khaled. The VIX was flat. And to be honest, the indexes didn't move that much. It wasn't that bad of a day. It just wasn't yesterday. So... I think we've kind of been spoiled with the way the market has been treating us lately. I mean, it's been, it's been, you know, it wasn't, it wasn't, you know, a plus twenty percent return on, you know, four different positions, but it was a decent day. Nael says, thank you, Rakan. Nael or Nael? I'm sorry if I'm pronouncing it wrong. Thank you, Rakan and your team for all the effort you guys are doing. It's our pleasure. Can I just check if the discount for PI membership is only for new members or also can I use this for renewing my membership? It's not restricted in how you use it. So use it however you want. I hope it's... I'm liking small caps. Wish there was a Halal ETF for small caps. Yeah, we do have a portfolio that we're building of small caps. Karim, I did go over CELH. So take a look at previous lives I don't remember which one it is but in summary my view on CLH was you know I don't really see a moat it's a it's been a good business the margins have been fantastic I don't really see a moat but also something that later occurred to me was are these drinks even healthy like I don't know I'd be interested in I'm not a doctor so but I'd be interested in investigating the answer to that question before investing in a company that makes these energy drinks and whatnot. Are these actually, I don't know, are there toxins in them? Or is it healthy to consume them on a regular basis? Something to keep in mind. hey Louie uh glad you signed up uh I'm really happy whenever we have a new member our community goes and grows stronger and I hope you've been experiencing the insights of our community on our Discord are really fantastic and I benefit from them as well so uh yeah I hope I hope you can join us if you aren't a member already. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. The summary of the live is inshallah, don't worry. I think we're still in the midst of a strong bull run that has more room to run. So leave a like, subscribe if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.