The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🎯 Market's Challenge: Find the Fastest Horse 🏇

Rakaan Kayali

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🎯 Market's Challenge: Find the Fastest Horse 🏇
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Introduction and Market Setup
  • CPI Data & Rate Cut Prospects
  • Bitcoin Reaches New Highs
  • Bitcoin Miners vs. Bitcoin Prices
  • Dogecoin’s Boost from Government News
  • Investing in the “Fastest Horse” in Crypto
  • Market Conviction: Stick or Switch?
  • Audience Q&A and Final Thoughts

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

So this is the most important chart of today. This is the chart that tells us the probabilities for a twenty five basis point cut in December. Today we got the much anticipated CPI core CPI data and it matched projections. And this is what we wanted. in order to make sure that or confirm that the Fed was going to cut interest rates in December. This is what the market wanted. Yesterday, we were looking at a probability here for a twenty five basis point cut of around sixty percent. Today, it jumped to eighty percent. So we've got the coast is clear signal from the inflation readout. Now, we do get additional information tomorrow with the PPI numbers that come out, and then we get retail numbers on Friday. But I think the most important numbers came out today. By the way, salam alaikum to everyone. Today is Wednesday, November thirteenth. And Bitcoin is at ninety thousand dollars. Doge is at close to forty cents. Sol is at two hundred and fifteen dollars. Now talking about the numbers that we got today. So the core inflation number was year over year was three point three percent. The forecast was three point three percent. So we matched our forecast. And for the year Inflation rate, we got two point six percent and the forecast was two point six percent. So all good on that front. In terms of indices today, the Dow Jones was up point eleven percent. Nasdaq was down point one six percent. The S&P is up point zero two percent. Now, I already know top of mind for people is going to be, hey, bitcoin's at ninety thousand why did the bitcoin miners go down well there is a correlation between bitcoin miners and bitcoin this correlation is uh definitely above zero and it's positive so they tend to move in the right in the same direction however Oftentimes, one is lagging the other. Sometimes Bitcoin miners will front run Bitcoin. Sometimes Bitcoin will front run Bitcoin miners. So there's often a lag between them. Now, what I am certain of is that Bitcoin going up in price is good for Bitcoin miners. And I don't think I'm going off on a limb here when I'm saying that. They're mining Bitcoin. The thing that they're mining is going up in price. That is good for them. This makes the prospects of their business better. So if anything, when you're looking at a case where there's somewhat divergence in the performance of Bitcoin versus the performance of Bitcoin miners, you have a buying opportunity. Because you know that eventually one is going to catch up with the other. And in the case of Bitcoin miners, we're talking about a leverage play on Bitcoin. So it should catch up and then some in terms of performance. Assalamualaikum. Nice to see you. Assalamualaikum. Hear me, dear. Cool. Nice to see you again. Assalamualaikum, Rashad. Assalamualaikum, Maruf. Thank you all for coming. Now, in other news, as it relates to Dogecoin, I've mentioned before that I thought meme coins were at the core of the crypto utility. And at the end of this Bitcoin bull run, I do think that meme coins will have performed perhaps the best out of any other category of crypto. And the Bitcoin of meme coins, if you will, is Dogecoin. And it got an additional catalyst as if it needed any more juice. And that is the establishment of a department in the United States, the Department of Government Efficiency with the Dogecoin. acronym doge and their handle is at doge on x this became formalized yesterday so the statement from president trump I am pleased to announce that the great elon musk working in conjunction with vivek ramaswamy will lead the department of government efficiency doge it's in the presidential decision Together, these two Americans will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditure and restructure federal agencies essential to the Save America movement. This will send shockwaves through the system and anyone involved in government waste, which is a lot of people, stated Mr. Musk. So you know that doge, that word is going to be repeated again. millions and millions and millions of times in the coming months as this department takes effect and it starts making decisions and what do meme coins need they need popularity they need to be top of mind for people and we got this additional catalyst for Dogecoin, which I think will take it. And I had to revise my projected prices for Dogecoin today. You can see that on our watch list. If you're a PIF member and you haven't checked that out, check it out. And I had to make them higher because of this. I think there's a good possibility that we go even higher than we already have. I mean, we've already forexed our investment Let's see how far we can get by the end of this crypto cycle. All right. So speaking of that, we do have a limited time, limited use code. I'm really excited about how our community is growing. Thirty five percent off for a limited time. Use code Bullrun twenty four. and you'll get thirty five percent off either premium or elite membership the difference between them elite gives you access to our course what another review and I've been sharing reviews every day while we run this promotion and thank you for everyone who is leaving a review. I really appreciate it. It brightens my day. It brightens the day of our team. So thank you for all of those who take the time to actually write out these positive reviews. So Blackwood, who has been with us for a while and I really appreciate his membership. Says, Jazakallah khairan for this response to a question. I want to personally thank you for all that you and the PIF does. I'm so grateful to Allah for finding this amazing community. And may we all grow prosperous and use our wealth in what pleases Allah. Ameen, Ya Rabb. Thank you for that, Blackwood. And today, Bitcoin has... Well, it actually, it was, it did briefly beat out Saudi Aramco in its total market cap. And it is moving steadily up this ranking of top assets by market cap globally. The idea that I want to communicate through this chart is that ideas are a lot more valuable than natural resources are saudi aramco the sort of crown jewel of the oil wealth in saudi arabia which that country is known for was beaten today by in terms of market cap in terms of value by bitcoin which is an asset that was the product of someone someone's idea someone who was trying to solve a problem in in seeing how the financial system needed a better store of value a better way to transact came up with this idea so what I want to communicate is that ideas are the and people really human capital is by far the most important asset that any country can have and we're seeing that in the rankings of top assets by market cap so take the right lessons from this ranking human capital is the most valuable thing that any group of people have we need to invest in that so um as it relates to Bitcoin, as if it needed any more momentum. Kalshi, if you'll recall, the betting market that actually proved to be more accurate than the polls in terms of predicting who was going to win the US election in another race that they have going on, will Trump create a national Bitcoin reserve The probability right now is standing at fifty eight percent. This is so huge. This is something that I don't think, you know, even the biggest Bitcoin bull saw coming only a few years ago. A national Bitcoin reserve would create a constant bid for Bitcoin, which would dramatically reduce its downside and reduce its volatility and would push other countries to do the same. right now we're looking at a higher than fifty percent chance that something like this happens before january first twenty twenty six so in the next twelve months or so basically this is really exciting guys it's great for bitcoin and it's great for crypto generally now I didn't mention before on this channel that I thought bitcoin would hit a hundred thousand before the end of the year and right now if you look at calci before december so before the end of this month there's a fifty percent chance that we hit a hundred thousand before january calci is assigning a seventy four percent chance these are people who are actually actual money that this happens before january seventy four percent chance that we get to a hundred k which is quite remarkable now if we look at my favorite model to look at the stock to income model with regards to figuring out where we should be for the price of bitcoin if you look at right now uh or the this is let's see if we can get closer so eleven sixteen it's predicting around uh so the sixteenth of november three days it's predicting around a hundred five thousand dollar price for bitcoin so very close to where we are right now which is ninety thousand now if you look at the end of um twenty twenty four so um it's predicting a hundred and fifty thousand dollar price for Bitcoin so this model has proven useful in the past there's no reason why it will not continue to be useful moving forward so really exciting times I hope you are positioned well and the idea for this live and the reason why I I called it uh you know finding the fastest horse is that right now the market seems in consensus about where the market is going and that is we're in the midst of a bull run we're going higher generally what market participants are trying to figure out is what is going to be the fastest horse here my advice to you is not to necessarily play that game rather see what your goals are And pick assets that think are going to get you to those goals. And don't hop around from one asset to the next trying to find the fastest horse. Because what investors do often is that they have conviction, they're in an asset, they see another asset rise, they see another asset pumping, and they say, oh, hey, maybe I should jump off of this asset go into this other asset that seems to be pumping more. You go into that other asset, that asset starts to plateau and the original asset starts to run. So what I want you to do is not do that. And so long as you have conviction, your thesis hasn't changed. Stick to what you have conviction in and what you think is going to get you to the goals that you've set for yourself. So with that, if you enjoyed this live, do leave a like. I'd really appreciate that. I'm going to take some questions very quickly. my roof says assalamu alaikum brother I can I'm new to pif joined a month ago finally profiting for the first time since I started trading stocks in april thank you so much uh my roof says I left the review in the feedback channel I really appreciate that rashad says I feel lots of joy in the air at the same time I'm preparing for bad news this is an emotionally draining game thanks for the support I can it is my pleasure rashad And I am really grateful for your membership and your valuable contributions, Rashad. As-salamu alaykum wa rahmatullah, humble analyst. Boron-XXIV is the code indeed. Thank you. Yes, please like the live. As-salamu alaykum. Muhammad says, Assalamu alaikum. Alhamdulillah for having this community that you created. We'll talk about renewal inshallah in the discord if you'd like. Amin says, I neither get a live notification nor do I see your live on my home screen when you are live. Go ahead and hit the notification bell, Amin, and inshallah you'll be notified when I go live. Also, Moving forward, I'm going to be targeting market close. So around market close is when we'll be going live. So just prep yourself because it does seem like more people are able to attend at market close. I know I was kind of late today. Apologies for that. It's been a busy day. So as I'm sure you can imagine, but yeah, I'm going to target market close inshallah. Well, Rashad, with the interest rate cut probability going up, liquidity forecasts for the U.S. seem to be positive and the rest of the world will follow the U.S. No Black Friday secret deal inbound. Just the deal that we provided, which is what I spoke about earlier. And it's in the description of this live as well. Myroof, if you can put that in the technical issues so we can get your account sorted. If you've lost conviction in Ethereum, yes, of course I would I would advise the same thing, or at least I would do the same thing I say I would do with regards to any other asset that I've lost conviction in, which is to move my money elsewhere. But make sure that you lost conviction for the right reasons. And that is your thesis and not the price action. Again, Trader Force, check out the description. We didn't wait for Black Friday. We have a deal going on right now. Limited time, limited number of uses as well. I've been very happy with how many times it's been used. I put a target for how many times it will be used. And Alhamdulillah, it looks like we're going to reach that. So once it's used that number of times, it's over. All right, guys, thank you all for coming. Do leave a like if you enjoyed this live. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.