The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

💹 The Smartest Market Recap 📈

• Rakaan Kayali

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💹 The Smartest Market Recap 📈
In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Dow Drops 300 Points: Powell's Rate Cut Concerns
  • Tesla Rises 3% Ahead of Earnings
  • Crypto Update: Bitcoin at $91K, Solana Surges
  • US Bitcoin Reserve Proposal Explained
  • Altcoin Trends & Solana’s Daily Transactions
  • Meme Coins & Market Dynamics
  • Closing Thoughts

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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Assalamu alaikum everyone. The Dow today was down three hundred points and the rest of the indices were in the red as the market continues to process Powell's comments regarding perhaps having cold feet. regarding another cut in December, and this manifested itself in the updated probabilities for the rate cut in December, now sitting just shy of sixty percent. That being said, as I mentioned yesterday, I still think a rate cut is coming in December, and that is for a number of reasons. And also because, honestly, we're just one report away, one economic report, a way that reminds the Fed how the economy is doing from this probability distribution flipping again in favor of a cut. So I'm not really worried about this. Certainly not as worried as the market today. The VIX was up close to thirteen percent, which is the volatility index and used as a gauge of fear in the market. Now, our positions did well today. If you look at our biggest position, Tesla up three percent, but their reports earnings before a market open on Monday. So we have that to look forward to. And really, Bitcoin miners generally are in profit right now, so long as Bitcoin is above eighty thousand. Bitcoin right now is at ninety one thousand up four percent. Doge is at thirty eight cents and Solana's at is up four and a half percent at two hundred and nineteen dollars per token. So the majors in crypto are doing quite well. This is going to, I think, accelerate moving into Q one and Q two of next year. It won't be a straight line up, but it will go up much further, is my prediction. There are a number of tailwinds in the sales of Bitcoin and crypto generally. Today, for example, we saw an article that I thought was quite interesting. Trump could put billions into U.S. Bitcoin Reserve without Congress's approval. Not to say that if he needed Congress's approval, he couldn't get it because they do control the House and the Senate. Senator Cynthia Loomis introduced a bill advocating expanding the two hundred thousand Bitcoin that the US government has or is holding in reserve. And the proposal outlines a plan for the government to purchase up to two hundred thousand Bitcoin annually over five years, potentially accumulating one million Bitcoin, representing approximately five percent of the top of the top assets total supply. Loomis expresses optimism that the legislation could pass within the first one hundred days of Trump's new term. So this would be, as I mentioned yesterday, perhaps bigger than the creation of the ETFs themselves, the Bitcoin reserve. US establishing it means that other countries following suit is only a matter of time. And there is an advantage to a Bitcoin reserve in that by law the government is not allowed to sell it before a certain period of time and therefore it's going to be one way for bitcoin and there's just going to be a bid there's no asks from this so a constant bid from governments across the world from you know sovereign states that have Now, very deep pockets is very good for any asset. Bitcoin is no exception. It's good for Bitcoin. It's good for crypto. Generally, if you look at the Kelshi probabilities for this actually happening, because it does seem like almost a figment of someone's imagination, but probabilities right now, people who are putting money behind the uh the probability of this happening now sixty six percent so this is looking that it's you know not as remote of a probability as perhaps some see it as now sixty two percent so um this is day five of thirty uh thirty five percent off for premium and elite memberships uh membership gets you access to my portfolios and trades. Every time we make a trade, deep dives, new assets, etc. From my friend who sent me actually a personal message, he said, in one week, my PIF growth portfolio has shot up by fifty percent. Thanks to Trump. And oh, yeah, that bot that's running PIF. Heartfelt thanks, Rakan, for your guidance, patience, and sharing your competency. I pray the benefit you are bringing to us counts heavy for you in the Achaia. Thank you, good friend, for that message. All right, for the crypto market overview, because we are entering the weekend and the stock market is closed, but crypto markets are open and we may have a very interesting weekend, just as we did last weekend. The market cap for crypto is now north of three trillion. I think that perhaps at the end of this cycle, we go north of four trillion. And we end up between four and five trillion, perhaps in the total market cap for crypto, which means a lot of things. It means good things for Bitcoin, but it means very good things for smaller cap cryptos, which are very interesting to me right around this time of the cycle. The altcoin season is at thirty five. So we're still basically in Bitcoin season, which means that there is some time. There's less time than there was, but there's still some time to position ourselves favorably once altcoin season starts. And regarding my strategy for finding altcoins, basically it's a combination of understanding what are the most popular themes and meme coins are by far the most popular theme and what makes the most sense to me with regards to the utility of crypto as a means for storing value and transferring it from one actor to another and which L-one blockchains are doing the best. So when you look at the daily active addresses, Solana is doing the best by a long shot. You have six point eight million daily active addresses versus under half a million for Ethereum, even though Ethereum has a much bigger market cap. So make of that what you will. Daily transactions, Solana is absolutely stomping on everyone else. Forty five million daily transactions for Solana versus one point three million for Ethereum. And the DEX trading volumes is perhaps most relevant when you're thinking about which meme coins to trade. take a chance on. With regards to Solana, you have trading volumes on November fourteenth nearing seven billion, whereas Ethereum is in second place with around half that daily trading volume at three and a half billion and go down the The list here near protocol is in last place with just twelve point seven million. So with regards to, OK, where am I? Where does my money have the best chance of doing well? I think a combination of understanding what themes are popular and what blockchains are doing the most volume, combining those, that information will steer you in the right direction. So I think meme coins on Solana are going to do better than all else being equal than meme coins on some other chain. And then what you want to do is then look at the relative valuation for these meme coins versus some of the metrics that I just mentioned. And this is really what I'm going to be spending my weekend doing. If you look at fees and revenue, yeah, Ethereum is still the top dog in terms of fees and in terms of revenue. However, it's very noteworthy that if you look at the fees for Solana, they're at nine point one million versus Ethereum at eleven point nine million. So relatively close here. I mean, you're talking about, you know, close to ninety percent. of the amount of fees that Solana is generating versus Ethereum. And the same with regards to revenue. So if we look at Solana, it's four point six million versus Ethereum, ten point one million. So roughly half in terms of revenue. But when you look at the respective market caps for these for these cryptos, they're actually, it's basically one to four. So Solana is at a hundred billion, whereas Ethereum is at three hundred seventy five billion. So there is a mispricing here. And I think this mispricing will take care of itself over this crypto cycle. And perhaps we actually see Solana gaining ground in a big way compared to Ethereum. So with that, let's, by the way, Juma Mubarak to all and Assalamualaikum to everyone in the chat. Thank you so much for coming. And we'll start with Hannibal. Do you have a business model in mind for a Tesla Robotaxi? Yeah, so I think Robotaxi can actually operate at around a fifty percent gross margin. And there are some studies that have looked deeper into the numbers there. And I think the average cost per mile for someone using a Robotaxi will be basically half of what it costs right now for people driving themselves. Wilson says, Salam, brother, do you have any thoughts on healthcare sector stocks that got beaten hard recently? Well, I think your head is in the right place thinking about what has been beaten hard recently. Right now, I do think that the stage of the market is more risk on. And so it With a longer-term view, you may find some really good names. With a shorter-term view, I'm still looking at some higher-risk, I think, plays. Yeah, there's a big difference, Shashad, between a cut and a pause, I think. the cut would be more bullish for risk assets. It's tough to say when PLL will soar. I think that it's really a matter of lithium prices. They're doing everything right. If you look at their last earnings report, They're doing everything right. They're a lean operation. There's no fat left in that operation. They've really tightened their belts and cut costs wherever they could. And so it's really a matter of lithium prices recovering. The good thing is that this company that I think has ample runway and has enough business to keep it going however long that takes. And I think that we're seeing signs of different lithium producers cutting their production. And we're seeing signs that there is recovery in the EV market, battery market, and therefore The combination of that means increasing demand and decreasing supply. So price should follow. I don't know how long it will take, but inshallah, it will follow. If a five percent of total Bitcoin supply is sucked from the market, what do you think will be the price reaction for that? It's going to be bullish. And keep in mind, when we're talking about, let's say, you know, Bitcoin, we're talking about a market cap now approaching two trillion. This is not to say that if you want to increase the price of Bitcoin or the market cap of Bitcoin, a hundred billion, that you need a hundred billion to do that. Because the way the market cap is calculated, it's a multiplication of the latest price times the number of tokens that are out there. And so basically what you need to figure out is, how many Bitcoins are even for sale, and then compare that to the number of dollars that are chasing that. And that will determine how far up the price goes. So you could cause, theoretically, you could cause, you know, a hundred billion dollar increase in market cap with just five billion dollars increase in demand pressure. So, you know, what, five percent of new and demand sustained demand from sovereign governments with basically unlimited budget means for price is really anyone's imagination so none of you I went uh walaikum salam I went over clcelh in a previous live I stayed away from it just because I didn't see any moat and I'm not really sure about the health safety-ness of, if that's a word, of the drinks that they make. So I got two questions about when the peak will be. I think I mentioned this yesterday. And it's no one knows. And that's why it's very important to keep an eye out on the data points, for example, with regards to Bitcoin, the MVRVZ score, with regards to any stocks that you're investing in. Obviously, you have to keep your eyes on valuations and making sure that they make sense. I think that was a mistake that many people made. made in the previous bull run things were trading at valuations that they that couldn't be justified even with, you know, fifty, a hundred years of growth. So this is very important that you not invest based on hype, but invest based on data. And generally speaking, with regards to whether we're in risk on or risk off, I think it's very important to look at liquidity levels and the forecast for liquidity levels moving forward. I still am bullish on uh liquidity levels I think that the government will have to refinance its debt and it needs to do that with lower interest rates so lower interest rates are coming certainly the incoming administration is going to be pro lower interest rates so that's going to pump a lot of liquidity into the market And as I mentioned, Trump is someone who judges himself based on the performance of the market. So I think that there is going to be, even if monetary policy falls short, fiscal policy will attempt to provide bullish stimulus for the markets. Taskeen says, someone in the Discord chat. No, I don't think. So someone in the Discord posted an article about iron going up. One thousand five hundred percent in eighteen months. No, I think that's wishful thinking. So. I don't think that's going to happen. Let's not let's not confuse Irish energy with. peanut the squirrel, the crypto peanut the squirrel that did more than that in just one week. Speaking of meme coins. So if I had to guess, if I had to guess, I think Hens will be acquired. I saw something similar happen with Slack where, you know, Slack was competing with Microsoft teams and then it got acquired by Salesforce. I doubled my money on that investment. That's my pleasure. Thanks, Hassan. It's my pleasure. I think with regards to meme coins like Doge and asking the question, is Doge's use rising? Well, Doge's use is not rising as a currency, as a means of payment. But the reason why meme coins are so attractive in this stage of the cycle is that For stocks, for example, as their price goes up, the argument for selling them becomes stronger. But with meme coins, as their price goes up, oftentimes the argument for holding them becomes stronger because one of their utilities is a way to escape the inflation of fiat. That's another thing that is very important to look at with meme coins. Check what the total potential supply can be. As it relates to Doge, people immediately, immediately, once someone says they're not interested in Doge because it has unlimited supply, just understand that this person either is low IQ or they don't understand Doge and its unlimited supply. Doge is limited in supply on a limited timeframe. So within a year, there can only be five billion additional Doge created. If you don't have a limited timeframe, then yes, there's no limit to how much Dogecoin can be produced. Now, what a limited number by time means is that the inflation rate is always going down. So, you know, if there's five billion additional tokens and there's one hundred and fifty billion tokens out there, then you have an inflation rate. And then if, you know, years from now, there's two hundred billion, there's still only five billion new tokens created. is even lower. So you have a steady and decreasing inflation rate. So we're talking about inflation rates, two, three, four percent. This is not something that necessarily impacts investors in any meaningful way. It's steady, predictable, and it's decreasing. So and this, I think, supports an argument for an eventual utility of a token like Dogecoin as a currency, for example, on a platform like X, if you want to tip a creator that you liked, or if you wanted to send money to another connection that you have, you could do so conceivably in Dogecoin. And I think the appetite to do so in something like Dogecoin is enhanced because the inflation rate is not zero. There's not a hard cap on the number of Dogecoins that can be created like there is for Bitcoin. With regards to Bitcoin, It's very good as a store of value because you want to hoard as many as you want, all users, as many as you can. All users want to just hoard Bitcoin as much as they can because they know that there's a twenty one million dollar, a twenty one million token max, and they want to have, you know, a certain number of these tokens. And so the appetite for them to actually use them and in exchanges is much lower alaikum sam dr boss so members only can see my portfolio I don't actually manage like take money from people and manage it at least not yet yeah don't forget to leave a like that would be really appreciated yeah I do think that you know we could now if you look at previous bull runs there's always been pullbacks in the price of bitcoin uh in the previous bull run, I think there was eight or nine, ten percent pullbacks for a Bitcoin during that run. So expect some pullbacks. That doesn't mean that the bull run ended. This is sort of the natural progression of things. So I think that if you wanted to play this, you know, maybe a five to ten percent trimming of positions when you feel like the rsi is overbought for example right now the bitcoin is overbought on the daily for the relative strength index uh you know may make sense again I always say this but take enough profit so that you're okay regardless of what happens so you don't want to take too much So that if it continues going up, you feel regret. And you don't want to take too little so that if it does fall, you feel regret that you didn't take any profits as well. So you want to find that balance between not caring whether it continues to go up or it goes down. And that's something that everyone has to work out for themselves. For me, typically the range is five to ten percent, but not more than that. If I think that we're still in the midst of a bull run, like I think right now. Yeah, I do think the discount code will last until the weekend. I've been, alhamdulillah, very happy with your support and your trust. I just want to thank you from the bottom of my heart. Honestly, you know, I've... I feel like I'm one of the very few people that doesn't necessarily look forward to the weekend. I love my job. I love following the markets. I love investing. I love trying to find the top one percent of assets and and sharing my thoughts, uh, with, uh, with you guys. And so, and none of this could happen without your support. So I just want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart, uh, for, uh, what you guys have made possible for me. And hopefully I've been able to return some of that value to you. So, uh, with that being said, um, enjoy your weekend, uh, make sure to, As much as possible, put your phones down, try to spend time with your families. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.