The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🌟 The Smartest Market Recap 🌟

Rakaan Kayali

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🌟 The Smartest Market Recap 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Bitdeer Misses Earnings by 260%
  • Bitcoin Miners' Future Outlook
  • Tesla Stock Rallies on EV Credits and Full Self-Driving News
  • Altcoin Market Surges: Solana and Meme Coins
  • MicroStrategy’s Infinite Money Glitch Explained
  • BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Launch Update
  • Final Thoughts

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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum all. I hope you are doing well. A very interesting day in the market today. And it's really why you should always keep your tap dancing shoes on when you are investing. Today, we saw a jump in the VIX on the heels of geopolitical crisis. tensions or enhanced tensions after Ukraine hit Russia with long-range missiles that were authorized for use after Russia attacked a lot of Ukraine infrastructure. So Russia retaliated by saying that it's going to change. And in fact, it did change the rules for using nuclear weapons in a conflict and made them, at least as per the verbiage, more likely to be used. That being said, I think that at this point, Russia, the only way Putin can mess this up is if he escalates in a way that draws in more countries into the conflict. All he has to do right now is just wait for the Trump administration to come to power because Trump has signaled very strongly that he was not going to aid Ukraine in the same way that his predecessor has been aiding Ukraine. And in fact, I don't really think Biden is really calling the shots here. It's really the generals that are calling the shot and Biden is just authorizing everything that they say and do. And so for that reason, I think, you know, Putin would be smarter not to escalate in response. And perhaps that's why the markets fared rather decently today. That being said, Putin does have a history of making some pretty dumb decisions, not the least of which was his decision to invade Ukraine in the first place and thinking that that would be a cakewalk. So we'll see what happens. So far, it does seem, as I mentioned, that the markets are digesting this news with a hint of optimism. The rally still goes on. And if you look at the Dow Jones, it was down slightly, but the Nasdaq was up point seven one percent. S&P was up point four percent and the Russell was up point seven four percent. The VIX did spike close to zero. The dollar index is basically flat today. I think one of the real concerns for the market, if you ask me like top of mind concern for the market would be the dollar index and the strength of the dollar. Now, if you listen to what is being proposed with regards to DOGE or the Department of Government Efficiency and trying to balance our budget and infrastructure, narrow the deficits or eliminate them that the US is incurring. If we are actually able to do this, then the treasuries, the United States treasuries become more attractive and that pulls some liquidity away from risk assets, or at least it provides a stronger competition, stiffer competition from treasuries for risk assets. And right now, treasuries are viewed with an eye of skepticism because of the inflation and anticipated inflation into the future that is driven very strongly by the deficits that we have and the obvious need to print more money in order to fund those deficits. So if that goes away, perhaps we see a strengthening of the dollar and therefore a tougher environment for risk assets on a appreciation by percentage basis at least. Looking at some other commonly viewed stocks, Tesla is up by two point one four percent and videos up close to five percent ahead of its earnings. That's going to be a big deal tomorrow when it comes out. But Bitcoin miners did well. pretty good today. And that's no wonder considering Bitcoin did hit ninety four thousand today. There is a lag. I know that many people ask, hey, Bitcoin is at ninety four thousand. Why haven't Bitcoin miners in many cases reached previously reached all time highs? There is somewhat of a lag between Bitcoin miners and Bitcoin, but they are positively correlated in that they move in the same direction eventually and historically. the moves of Bitcoin miners have exaggerated the moves of Bitcoin. They've acted as sort of a leverage play on Bitcoin. So if Bitcoin moves X, Bitcoin miners will move two, three, four, five X, depending on the miner. So I think that dynamic still holds. Lithium, I'll go into PLL. I know there's a lot of questions about PLL. I'll go into PLL and the merger, which... the too-long-didn't-read take on it is that this is a positive. And you've already seen this as a positive in both the price action of PLO, which was halted today, but also the price action of other lithium miners. So this was good news for the industry. And I think the merger of Piedmont and Ciona will create a very powerful company. I'm still awaiting some more details in order to make a more informed decision about what we do with our PLL shares. Moving down the list here, if you look at gold, it was up slightly. So that kind of tells you that the market is actually it's flat. It's point zero one percent. So let's call that flat. So the market is not really in a risk off mode. If you consider gold to be a risk off asset, then historically it has been. uh bitcoin is up uh one point four four percent as of recording this ninety one thousand eight hundred doge is under forty cents it it um it eclipsed forty today uh soul is at two thirty five and I just wanted to show you a couple charts here this is soul um this is soul btc um And if you look at, you know, since the beginning of the year, Sol versus BTC, Sol has outpaced BTC in terms of a return. So, fifteen percent. If you look at since the beginning of the year versus Ethereum, Sol has outran Ethereum by more than one hundred percent. So I'm showing you these. charts to emphasize the point that even though we're bullish on Bitcoin, it does make sense in the environment that we are in to look at other assets. And that's why we have money in other assets in the crypto space. Not because we're not bullish on Bitcoin, but maybe we think that in a specified period of times, other assets may run more than Bitcoin. And that's why we don't do the, you know, just buy Bitcoin and be done with it is because we are a bit more ambitious than that, even though If you buy Bitcoin, I mean, it depends on your goals. If you buy Bitcoin and you're done with it, you'll do extremely well. Michael Saylor in a recent interview said, every Bitcoin you don't buy is eventually going to be thirteen million dollars. I don't think that that's necessary. I think his timeline was between twenty forty and twenty fifty. It will be thirteen million dollars. I don't think that that's necessarily out of the question. In fact, I think that. Bitcoin will continue to go up so long as the network operates. It will be eventually the most valuable asset on Earth. It will continue to climb that ranking that we often show you, and as it has been, and eventually it's going to eclipse gold as the most valuable asset on Earth. So in the details to some of what I just said, Russia confirms Ukraine has attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals nuclear response is being prepared. This is actually a really bad way of writing this headline. It's obviously sensational. But what they actually did was they changed the rules of engagement with regards to their nuclear weapons. As it relates to crypto generally. continue to keep an eye out on the most popular themes. Right now, meme coins continues to hold the number one spot in terms of most popular themes in the crypto space with a a ninety two percent gain in the last month, followed by store of value. And obviously, you know, Bitcoin being at the top of that list in terms of categories for gain, and then followed by gen one smart contract platforms. So those are really the, so real world assets after that smart contract platforms after that. So those are the most popular categories for crypto. As far as I can tell, meme coins and store of value are just confirmations for what I've been saying. related to the actual utility of cryptocurrencies, basically as a store of value and as a means of exchange. I think this proves that what I'm saying, my understanding of crypto is actually pretty accurate. Now, speaking of tailwinds for Bitcoin, and yesterday I mentioned different companies that were, and basically every day we're getting news of a different company, using Bitcoin or declaring Bitcoin as a future treasury asset and making the moves to onboard Bitcoin onto their balance sheet. And now we're at a point where even countries are starting to make announcements in this regard. So a presidential candidate in Poland has pledged to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. And we know that Trump, the president-elect here in the United States, has pledged to do the same. And so perhaps we see amongst countries the same dynamic we're seeing play out amongst companies, wherein everyone is vying to create their own Bitcoin strategic reserve, as some retail investors have been doing for years now. And that is creating personal reserves. Bitcoin reserves to preserve their purchasing power. So this comes from the candidate ranked third in Poland's presidential race, according to recent polls. He mentioned, if I become the president of Poland, our country will become a cryptocurrency haven with very friendly regulations, low taxes, and a supportive approach from banks and regulators. And he mentioned that Poland should create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Now, as it relates to the United States, Right now, as per Kelshi at least, the betting market that is Kelshi, the probability for a Bitcoin reserve is at fifty six percent, which means that forty four percent of the probability is not priced in to the price of Bitcoin right now. Now, another interesting news that I thought sort of drives home the idea that you should always be on your toes as it relates to investing and you know not be too caught up in whatever thesis you have for a position hr block and intuit stock today took it on the chin after A report that Trump government efficiency team, Doge, is considering a tax filing app. So the stock prices of H&R Block and Intuit fell after a report said Trump's government efficiency team is considering creating a free tax filing app, which would be amazing. It would be amazing if the government would just tell its citizens, how much they owe in tax. That would be so awesome. I can tell you, one of the most stressful exercises as an American is creating or filing taxes and paying them because They don't tell you how much you owe, so you have to figure that out on your own. And streamlining that process would, I think, lower stress levels nationwide, increase happiness, all that good stuff. Intuit, which makes the TurboTax filing software, closed down five percent. H&R Block closed down eight percent. A tax filing app created by Trump's planned Department of Government Efficiency. would be a competitor to both H&R Block and TurboTax. So that's your daily roundup of the most important news. Let's go to, oh, by the way, I forgot to create the promotion. The promotion is still going on. You can see it in the description of this video. Thirty-five percent off premium and elite memberships for a limited time, a limited number of uses for this coupon. And with the membership, you get access to my trades, move for move, as well as other privileged content, including deep dives into different assets that we're interested in and a watch list that has buy below and sell above prices that people can use for inspiration when they are investing. As-salamu alaykum to everyone. Nice to see you all. Nice to see all these familiar names. Hear me, dear Kool, Wilson. Salam, brother. What's one or two sectors you're most bullish on for I think that we are in the, in the early stages of the artificial intelligence play, but you want to avoid investing in the sort of first derivative benefactors and think what are the second and third and fourth derivative benefactors, because those plays will be the least crowded and have the most upside to them. And I also think in the near term, obviously things like Bitcoin and leverage plays on Bitcoin are going to perform very well. Tesla will break out, but it probably will not go parabolic in twenty twenty five, maybe end of twenty twenty five or second half of twenty five is when it goes parabolic. But it will go parabolic and it will go parabolic for a while. So. Those are some of my thoughts, it says. talk about PLL. I will, inshallah, as I did mention it. But the very succinct take is that it is bullish, I think. Salam, Rashad. Nice to see you. Salam, Ali. Salam, Niznaz. Salam, Mohamed. assalamu alaikum the long-term price of solana x or more in the next twenty years uh I've seen alaikum salam dr boss I've seen a lot of you know price targets for solana that are x and more but honestly I don't really get it I I think it's overvalued as it is as an asset it's getting a lot of use but if I'm if I'm valuing an asset like i value any asset which is based on the cash flows that it generates I think it's overvalued any equity that generates the same type of cash flows would be considered to be overvalued but I think there is some merit into you know reading the room so to speak and you know when you read the room in terms of the crypto market solana presents itself as an attractive play for the near term Oh, that's awesome, Chocolate. So Chocolate says, finally found a job in tech after being laid off. Congratulations. One of the first things I did after giving Sadaqah signed off for PIF membership. Well, that's amazing. First off, it's amazing that the first thing you did was give sadaqah. And that means, inshallah, that there will be a lot of barakah in your wealth. And we like people, inshallah, that have a lot of barakah and are good people to join our community. So it's awesome that you joined. I'm happy to have you chocolate. Dr. Boss says, will Tesla appreciation, the share price, five thousand plus happen within the next ten years? Yeah, I think so. Again, I should caveat everything I say with this, not financial advice, only my assessment. I think SMCI is worth a look. I do think Doge can touch one dollar this small run. Hey, Muhammad. Nice to see you. Wa alaikum salam. Jazakallah so much so far for these. Enjoying the lives new to this. May the Almighty bless you with barakah. Well, thanks so much, Muhammad. And to you as well. I don't think that we're going to have another recession, Rashad. Certainly, I haven't seen economic data that makes a compelling argument that that is in fact the case. It remains a possibility, but I think it's more of a remote possibility than a likely one. It's an interesting question. How do you think the manufacturing companies or builder companies that rely on immigrants will do in a Trump presidency? So I think that this may be a challenge as it relates to inflation. So if we are to get rid of a lot of illegal immigrants that work, by the way, something to mention about illegal immigration. And I think that people should immigrate legally. then people should not break the law. But one of the benefits of illegal immigration from just a purely economic standpoint is that obviously they provide cheap labor. And so that helps bring down prices. But also in many cases, although this has been circumvented in some weird banana land places like California, But in many places, because they are illegal immigrants, they don't get any benefits of someone who came here illegally. So they cost a lot less in terms of just from a purely economic standpoint, because they're not privy to any benefits. But also they help bring down inflation. So there was an economic value. to illegal immigrants, but I do believe that there are, there's also downsides. So, you know, when you have illegal immigrants, you don't know, you know, their backgrounds, some of them may be, you know, criminals, some of them, you know, maybe bad people. So I think that, you know, having an organized way of immigrants entering the country is, obviously the way to go, but it should, I think that process should be streamlined and should be easier to do. And we should focus on letting the deserving people enter and keeping out as much as possible, bad people, people with criminal histories, people involved in trafficking, the drug trade, et cetera. There will be economic consequences to clamping down on illegal immigration. Make no mistake about that. Yeah, I'm going to, so that was, you know, one of the things that I was taking a deep look into today was Sphere, I'll have an update on that. If you want to, if you want to follow my portfolios, move for move, then make sure to become a PIF member if you aren't already for a limited time. Thirty five percent off all memberships. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Subscribe and hit the notification bell so you know when we go live next. Till next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.