The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
🌟 The Smartest Market Recap: 11-25-2024 🌟
â–º If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!
â–º More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance
🌟 The Smartest Market Recap: 11-22-2024 🌟
In this episode, we will cover:
- Introduction & Market Overview
- S&P, Nasdaq, Dow: Green Day Highlights
- Bitcoin at $92K: What's Driving the Surge?
- Meme Coin Cautions: Avoid Pump & Dumps
- Trump Picks for Treasury & Commerce: Crypto Impacts
- Tesla and Full Self-Driving Regulation Updates
- Key Data to Watch: FOMC, Core PCE, GDP Projections
- Solana’s Potential and Risks in Meme Coins
- Dogecoin's Integration with X and Market Position
- Strategy for Navigating the 2024 Bull Run
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Salam alaikum all. Take two for the Smartest Market Recap. November twenty fifth. If you can hear me, just leave a thumbs up. Really appreciate that. And once I get my first thumbs up, I'll get started inshallah. Hello, hello. Can you guys hear me? Hello, hello. All right. Great. Nice to see you guys. Nice to see Muhammad, Luhei, Rashad. OK, now they're all coming in at the same time. Amazing. Well, that's the lag, I guess. So this is why it's really important to have a consistent setup, because if you change one thing sometimes, even something very subtle, then sometimes you get differences in performance. And you get technical difficulties. I'm on the road right now, so I have a completely hodgepodge setup. And yeah, you cannot see me by design. I don't really have a setup here. So we'll just go over some of the main points for today, and then I'll let you guys go. But I appreciate you all tuning in. We did notch another strong day in the markets, another green day for the S&P, another green day for the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones. We did get what we wanted to see with the dollar index, and that's a retracement. Even if it is half a percentage point, we'll take it. With the VIX, we are down four percent. So that's also good for market sentiment. By the way, for this week, we do expect some important economic data. So we'll get the FOMC minutes. We'll get some additional information, additional color on what the Fed wants to do in December. And that may impact the probabilities for a Fed rate cut, as is priced by the market. then we'll get the core pce number and that for sure is going to impact the probability for a cut in december and we'll also get the gdp growth rate at and by the way core pce gdp growth rate um the estimate at least that's going to come out on wednesday inshallah we do have thanksgiving in the united states on thursday and then friday I believe it's a half day in the markets uh so we'll get some There won't be any let up in the crypto market, which is red hot these days, but we will get a break in the equity markets. Speaking of crypto, if we look at the price performance of Bitcoin, we're now at ninety two thousand. That's to be expected after Jim Cramer expires. announced that he was bullish on Bitcoin. So yeah, this is par for the course. Dogecoin is at thirty eight cents. And if I'm being completely honest, I wouldn't mind if it goes down a bit more than that. If it does, I may just end up backing up the truck on this one. Solana is at two thirty four. We did already take some profits from Doge, but I do think that there's more to run here. So if we can get a price where you know, we can actually take advantage of the obvious move and anticipation for what is to come, then I'll take that. so tesla is down four percent still at three hundred and thirty eight tesla continues to ride a wave of positive momentum after the election results and the proximity that their ceo now has with donald trump and the new administration and really the next leg up for tesla relates to how soon and how favorable they can get regulations as it relates to full self-driving uh bitdeer was up six point eight five percent today even though it wasn't a great day for bitcoin miners which is to be expected considering the retracement in the price of bitcoin The reason for this appreciation in Bitdeer may be due at least in part to Trump's appointments. And we'll talk about that in just one second. PLL is down less than a percentage point and phases up eight and a half percent. So that is really good. And something that I think was to be expected. after Trump's nominations for Treasury and Commerce Secretary. We'll talk about those in just one second. So first off, with regards to Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, The markets really like this. So strategists regard hedge fund manager Scott Besant, which is Trump's pick, a founder of Connecticut-based investment firm, Key Square Group, as a safe pair of hands, as expected. year old will push for Trump to consider a softer approach to tariffs, strip back regulation to boost economic growth and target a reduction in deficit spending. So these are all things that were very top of mind for investors, how severe the tariffs would be and you know, what that would have in terms of an impact on inflation and on a number of different industries. And so the Trump trade ran in a certain direction. You saw certain companies that may be impacted really pull back, one of them being M-Phase. But now with a sort of more moderate person at or at least nominated for Treasury Secretary, I think a lot of these Trump trades are moderating in terms of their acuteness. And so things that have run up a lot are pulling back a little. Things that have dropped a lot are appreciating a little. And that's what we're seeing in the markets. The news that Scott Besant is the top choice for incoming U.S. Treasury minister has raised the possibility that some of the Trump trades may be watered down. That's exactly what I mentioned. Now, it's important to note that Scott Besant is also someone who is pro-crypto. And Trump's Commerce Secretary pick is also very pro crypto and he leads a firm that allegedly struck a six hundred million dollar tether deal now their connection here to bitdeer is that tether is actually a large investor in bitdeer And so perhaps there's a correlation here between this nomination and the Bittier appreciation today in the markets. So Howard Lotnick, Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary and current presidential transition advisor, maintains significant business connections with cryptocurrency giant Tether through his firm Cantor Fitzgerald. Cantor Fitzgerald, where Lutnik serves as chairman, holds the majority of Tether's one hundred and thirty four billion dollars in assets, primarily in U.S. Treasury bills. This arrangement generates tens of millions in annual fees for Cantor. So there's a connection between the Commerce Secretary and Tether, Tether and Bitdeer, and also on a sort of. bigger, if we zoomed out here, this is a person who is very familiar with cryptocurrencies and is likely to have a positive disposition vis-a-vis cryptocurrencies. And as it relates to the Treasury Secretary pick, Scott Besant, Blockchain Association mentioned that Today's nomination of Scott Besant for Treasury Secretary is welcome news. He's a supporter of President-elect Trump's vision for crypto and believes in the economic freedom it provides individuals. Critical to this nomination would be working with Congress on a regulatory framework for digital assets, protecting the rights of custody, pushing for clear tax treatments of digital assets, and working closely with industry experts to protect our nation's security. We look forward to working with him in this role. The crypto industry in general is very bullish on these nominations that Trump has made. And there was a lot of volume in crypto, even though some of the majors pulled back, which is to be expected. A lot of the price action that we got there is a function of leverage. And whenever you have leverage, you do have cleaning of the house every now and then where levered positions get basically wiped out. There's some deleveraging in the market and then We settle at a certain place and then resume our, I think, bullish general trend. So this is to be expected. We did see volumes in crypto, really. just go out of control, especially over the weekend. If you look at Solana, Solana's monthly DEX volume hit the one hundred billion dollar milestone for the first time. A lot of it was due to meme coins and specifically the Chill Guy meme coin. uh something to really emphasize if you get any value from this is from the live inshallah and if you do do leave a like I'd appreciate that but um really be very careful with regards to these meme coins I mean They're basically scams. Most of them are. Ninety nine point nine percent of them are. I don't know if you've heard of the platform pump that fun just where people are doing wild things in order to pump certain cryptos. You want to stay clear away from these. uh from these scams um it's and don't get sort of pulled in by certain stories that you may hear every now and then about people going from rags to riches because of you know buying a certain meme coin at an opportune time and because typically these people who actually do make a lot of money in a certain play on a meme coin they end up losing that money on some other meme coin later because once you win. You have a win. You have a big win under your belt. You're not going to go back to go to sleep, wake up and say, hey, let me put in an honest day's work. No, you're going to try and find the other, the next big thing to jump on and try and replicate your results. And that's how people end up losing their money. So please, I want to really emphasize that it's important to to not get caught up in the hype or get caught up in the greed. And remember, the number one rule of Fight Club is never talk about Fight Club. The number one rule of investing is preservation of capital. That's the number one rule of investing. Your number one priority is to make sure that you don't lose money. And meme coins and these pump and dump schemes are the way most people lose money. Ninety nine point nine percent of participants, probably more than that. It's probably more nines after that. after that comma, but they lose money. It's only very few people that actually make money. And over time, they lose money too, as I mentioned. And just to sort of put into perspective the level of hype in the crypto world right now, the number one free app in the App Store over the weekend was the Phantom Wallet, where Solana tokens can be traded. So it's a cautionary tale. Stick with the things that... we you know analyze and and have a solid thesis for and are tried and true have fair launches have a decent distribution are not too concentrated and actually have a utility that is verifiable all right so uh that's really All I wanted to tell you guys, all systems are go really with regards to this bull market. I don't think that the retracement that we've experienced is anything to necessarily be concerned about. I think it's really par for the course. And to be honest, the retracement that we have experienced has been quite moderate if we were to compare it to other retracements we've experienced in previous cycles. So with that being said, let's go to questions. And yes, I understand that you guys can't see me. And that's by design. I don't really have a good setup here. So I just wanted to give you guys audio. I will be back in my office next week. But for this week, I am on the road. So do bear with me. I'd appreciate it. Assalamu alaikum to everyone. It's really awesome to see you all. Hope you had a great weekend. Nice to see you. I'll mention a few names here. Niznaz, Hannibal, Muhammad Al-Mutawakkil. All right. So as it relates to NVIDIA, there has been a pullback in NVIDIA. And I think one of the main reasons is competition that we are hearing from other companies entering into the space. And this is to be expected. The thing about NVIDIA, which I think it's quite unique, is that This is a highly, highly difficult business to enter. You have to have really deep expertise. I mean, the level of sophistication in its products is... is second to none as it relates to nvidia and this is a company it started in the eighties and has been working on this thing for you know decades now so I I would I would view any competitors with a lot of skepticism as it relates to nvidia and I think probably pullbacks are opportunities to buy the dip had I been comfortable with NVIDIA. The reason why I don't invest in NVIDIA is because of its associations with Israel. But I'm confident that This will not harm our performance at all because as the Prophet, peace be upon him, mentioned that we'll never leave anything for the sake of Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala except Allah will replace it with something even better. And I am firmly in belief of this. thoughts on btc being a pump and dump no I don't think btc is a pump and dump I mean I would entertain such arguments if btc was two or three years old but now I mean we're more than a decade old now and we're seeing more institutions entering we're seeing more regulations now we're seeing administrations governments across the globe embracing this and because they understand and it's not It's not about it's a nice to have anymore. With fiat in decline, it's becoming a necessity. So I think BTC will be a staple of financial life for many years to come. In terms of price action, I would, you know, if you believe in the long term thesis, it's always a good idea to dollar cost average. So if you're not trying to necessarily time the market or do swing trades. If you're trying to figure out the short-term movements, I'd say there are a lot of other avenues where you could spend your time, which is a lot more fruitful. I would not attempt to figure out what Bitcoin is going to do tomorrow or the week after that. I think generally we're in the bullish phase of the cycle. That's really all we need to know at this point. As-salamu alaykum, Abdullah. Nice to see you. Doge integration with X, I think, will happen. I'm not really sure how exclusive the integration will be with regards to Doge or if it will be just crypto generally. I'm not sure if Musk is going to give a special dispensation, if you will, to Doge in his platform. But if he does, it will be extremely bullish. But even without the X integration, I think the recent run-up in Doge has been a function of... A lot of people looking at Bitcoin and saying, you know, this thing is at a hundred thousand. I have a couple hundred bucks. Is it even worth my time to buy some Bitcoin? But if I buy something with a smaller market cap, maybe I can buy a thousand. doge or I can buy you know ten thousand doge and then if there is appreciation there I can it actually makes a difference for me and a lot of people are thinking along these lines and there are no meme coins that have a longer track record than doge does And it has fair launch, proof of work, has a relatively decent distribution. And so it's tried and true. And this is not something that you can compete with as a new meme coin. With a new meme coin, you always have that possibility of being just a pump and dump scam. With Dogecoin, I think enough years have gone by where people are familiar with it and they know that it's not that. So that type of familiarity, that type of affability for its memes and its marketing and the very loyal fan base that it has over the years, I think the... The argument for investing in it, especially for smaller investors, is quite strong when they're trying to decide, do I put these couple hundred bucks in Dogecoin or do I put them in Bitcoin? And so I think you're going to see that play out. Obviously, an integration with a major platform like X would be basically a rocket fuel for the token. But even without that, I think it will do well. And we've seen that performance play out over the last month. What is your prediction with HIMS being acquired? What will happen to our current investment? So with regards to HIMS, I definitely think that it entered a new world with Amazon's competition and it has gone from being in an easy business to... to somewhat of a harder business. And I think that recent appreciation in the price of him comes on the heels of the announcements in terms of announcing new products by HIMSS they're kind of going into the nutrition space and they're also there has been an appointment in the Trump administration that was friendly to HIMSS But I do, at the end of the day, I worry about the margins for hymns and their ability to preserve those margins over time. You know, they're getting into different businesses. And, you know, maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't. But it's definitely... It's definitely something to keep an eye out on, especially at their next earnings. Well, their next earnings may not reflect this, but perhaps the earnings after that. But what type of margins will they be able to maintain moving forward? Are they going in the right direction or are they going to sort of commodity-like margins? margins over time that's something to really keep an eye out for and you know how much money do I have to spend on marketing in order to compete with with these new entrants into the market I see you got Lucid on your watch list. Is there a reason for that? Yeah, only to make fun of it every now and then. I like to take shots at Lucid. Iris Energy reports tomorrow, inshallah. So we will have, inshallah, a detailed breakdown on what they report. It's going to be very important to look at what they guide for in the next quarter. Keep in mind, what they report tomorrow is not going to reflect the most recent price appreciation in Bitcoin. It's going to reflect the period of time where the price of Bitcoin was around sixty thousand. So it's really important what their guidance is going to be, as opposed to what they report tomorrow. Yes, inshallah, Sami, we are. Will the percentage of Dogecoin be rebalanced? If no, could you please help me relax on it? We'll see, brother. Inshallah, what I said right now gives you some amount of comfort. My thoughts on Solana is... know I want to see it evolve into something beyond what it is right now it's sort of a platform for meme coin trading and I was actually asked this yesterday in our members only meeting which is you know what gives you comfort in solana and my answer was that I think solana has the has the possibility of evolving into a platform that has usefulness, really. And I'm not sure we're at that right now, but it has that potential. and so I would like to see it get there and if it doesn't get there and if I lose hope in it getting there then I may you know offload my position in solano just out of principle I don't really want to make money from you know people you know trading meme coins necessarily that are pump and dump schemes. I would rather make money and face my creator on the day of judgment having a better answer than, okay, I invested in a platform for trading meme coins. So I think that it has that potential and there are some glimmers of hope with regards to certain applications that are being built. But unless I see actual utility on that platform, materialize and over time then I I will end up offloading my solana position inshallah so ios energy um IOS Energy kind of left it easy for us in terms of what to do with earnings. I try to not buy or sell big before earnings because that's essentially gambling if you don't have insider information. And the market has not gone really strongly in one way or the other. So it hasn't really motivated me to necessarily take profits or make a big move in terms of my position there. So what will likely happen is that we'll just wait and see for what the earnings tell us. When do you expect the peak of this bull run? So, yeah, so I do think that certainly first half of twenty twenty five is a good time to really. Adjust your exposure and make sure that it is less risk on than perhaps it is right now. I do think we get a pullback at this maybe at the start of. twenty twenty five just out of people taking profits. But that won't be the end of the bull run. I think there's more juice in it, but it's really important that you trade around your goals. So you know let's say you know you have a goal for twenty twenty five and by the way that's another important point is that you should have goals with regards to your net worth with regards and a timeline for it like I want to get to this number by this time and so each period of time should have its and then you know work backwards to you know how much should I have at this point in time and so on and when you reach that goal that you have for your net worth I think it's important to adjust your strategy accordingly so you know my goals are not necessarily yours so may make more sense for you to be more aggressive on some positions or less aggressive on others, depending on where you are in your net worth building journey. So I just want to emphasize that. And, you know, so if you reach your goal for net worth and Q one, let's say of twenty twenty five for that year, then it makes a lot of sense for me for you to de-risk and and maybe diversify your holdings a bit if you're very concentrated in order to in order to preserve what you've gained. But obviously, I think that you should also have one eye on where we are in the cycle and adjust accordingly. But the idea is that your goals should also inform you know, how you position your portfolio at any given time. And yeah, so I do think that, you know, first half of of twenty twenty five, they'll still be juice left in this bull run. It's not going to be as explosive as November has been. Maybe we'll have pockets of explosiveness in certain assets, so, for example, Bitcoin could really run very hard And VanEck was mentioning a hundred and eighty thousand dollar price target for twenty twenty five. I think that's very reasonable, especially when you have sovereigns and corporations starting to compete for Bitcoin and establishing their own Bitcoin reserve. Bitcoin reserves, then Bitcoin could have a lot of juice in it, even even beyond the first half of twenty twenty five. And maybe we have a situation where there's sort of constant bids for Bitcoin coming from institutions, coming from governments. But generally speaking, I think for crypto, this mania won't last and A lot of the garbage is going to be flushed out of the system. A lot of people are going to be hurt. And I hope no one listening will be among them. And just make sure that you're holding on to the truth. holding on to patience and always investing based on the truth and not based on FOMO or fear of or regret or peer pressure or something like that. And I think if you, inshallah, tune in to PIF, we'll be able to to help with regards to connecting you with a group of, well, with myself, who I'm always watching the markets, and a group of halal conscious investors that are motivated by the same things that you are motivated by, inshallah. So meme coins are just coins that are based off of memes. So a meme is kind of something that gains popularity in the internet for whatever reason. It's a short video or an image or something and it kind of goes viral and people start using it a lot. And certain memes have had tokens attached to them and those are called meme coins. Welcome Sarah memory. Nice to see you. Yes, do leave a like, I'd appreciate that. I mean my top two favorite cryptos would probably probably be bitcoin and dogecoin at this point I think eventually miners will will catch up there is a lag and typically there is a lag but when they catch up they catch up in a big way so I think some patience is needed but I'm not worried inshallah hey thanks guys I really appreciate it yeah do leave a like oh by the way uh I would be remiss not to mention the following uh so nothing in this video is meant to be personalized financial advice make sure to do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions and also thirty five percent off that offer is still ongoing for a limited time a limited number of uses so use code boron twenty four get thirty five percent off of your pif membership if you enjoyed this slide then do leave a like I'd really appreciate that subscribe hit the notification bell so you know when we go live next until next time make sure to take care of yourself assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all