The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
🌟 The Smartest Market Recap: 11-26-2024 🌟
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🌟 The Smartest Market Recap: 11-26-2024 🌟
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro & Bitcoin Pullback to $91K
- Market Maker Manipulation: What’s Happening?
- Bitcoin Miners: Challenges and Opportunities
- IS Energy Earnings: Key Takeaways
- Solana's Growing Popularity Over Ethereum
- PCE Numbers and Fed Rate Cut Predictions
- Viewer Q&A: Altcoins, Tesla, and Crypto Strategy
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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Assalamualaikum all, I hope you are doing well. Another interesting day in the markets. We did get a pullback and some of the main characters that have been impacting markets recently especially as it relates to crypto and bitcoin uh we did get a pullback from the highs that were knocking on the doors of a hundred thousand we're now at uh ninety one thousand seven hundred and that is to be expected uh keep in mind There is a lot of manipulation, believe it or not. Gasp, I know. Manipulation that happens from market makers who offer leverage to their clients. Oftentimes, it's in the best interest of the market makers to flush out some of the longs that have taken leverage positions or are using derivatives rather than pay out what they are owed in case prices stay where they are. when you have an upswing in the price of any asset you can expect market makers to put a lid on it and I think that's what we're seeing right now with regards to bitcoin right now if you are selling bitcoin you're selling into a market where institutions companies sovereign nations are actually competing to buy from you and And this pressure from these entities to buy from you is only expected to increase with time. So really, if you're selling, you're either a forced seller or there's some manipulation happening that is causing the supply to increase and the price to decrease. calculations that are being done by market makers. And nevertheless, I think that for us as halal conscious investors that don't deal with leverage, that don't deal with derivatives, I think it's a good opportunity. I mean, just like we have Black Friday sales on many other products, we now have Black Friday sale on assets. And This is to be taken advantage of if you believe in the thesis behind these assets. With regards to other positions, we saw pullbacks in Bitcoin miners, which. You know, kind of stinks because with Bitcoin lately, I mean, for Bitcoin mining miner holders, it's been the worst of both worlds where and You know, when Bitcoin is going up in price, Bitcoin miners are not following. But when Bitcoin is going down in price, Bitcoin miners are following. Now, I do believe that this dynamic will break and we will get appreciation in the price of Bitcoin miners as we have in previous cycles. And there will be some juicy returns, inshallah, for those who have built positions at attractive entry points. Bitdeer was down close to ten percent today on really no news other than Bitcoin going down in price. IS Energy just reported their Q one twenty twenty five fiscal year twenty twenty five earnings and took a quick look at them because they only reported ten minutes ago. And what I saw was encouraging. Now the market I'm sure will be very volatile in response to their report, but I think they are one of the most efficient Bitcoin miners out there and they are doing all the right things keeping in mind shareholder value and maximizing that so if we take a look at you know one slide that I wanted to show you guys so Bitcoin they have moved forward their target for reaching fifty exahash from the second half of twenty twenty five to the first half of twenty twenty five, which is extremely important in an environment when. Bitcoin is rising in price because you want to take as much advantage of these higher prices as possible and be in a position to mine as many Bitcoin as possible in this environment. Now, we also had the AI and high performance computing with measured growth, as they like to call it. And there still have negotiations ongoing with parties. got a news of this in their latest update so we'll see if they can provide additional color on these negotiations in their earnings call which is in minutes and they are working on their liquid cooling infrastructure for blackwell gpus which should bring down the costs for their cooling and ultimately bring down the costs for their mining operations And then this is something. So in addition to, I would say the two things that stuck out to me were to fix the fifty X a hash going from second half to the first half of twenty twenty five that goal. And then the second thing that stuck out to me was this bullet right here. Strong operation operating cash flows to support potential investor distributions in twenty twenty five. This is not something that I was necessarily expecting considering Bitcoin miners have been notorious for diluting their shareholders into oblivion, basically. But it's also it's certainly refreshing as an investor to hear that Bitcoin miners are or a Bitcoin miner is thinking about investor distributions either through share buybacks or a dividend perhaps but I would I think share buybacks may make sense if their current valuations persist long enough another slide that I want to show you guys which I thought was compelling was the all-in-cash cost per bitcoin And here there's a comparison of IOS Energy to other notable public Bitcoin miners. So you can see at their thirty one exahash and this is estimate for the quarter ending September thirtieth, twenty twenty four. so around uh twenty nine thousand for iris energy and they're all in cash cost per bitcoin so this doesn't take into account appreciation but it's important when you're trying to calculate cash flows expected cash flows for the company compared to uh core scientific for example at fifty one thousand or cypher at fifty five mara at sixty six bit farms at seventy and riot at seventy two so there's a clear advantage that iris energy has right now and they're all in cash costs per bitcoin and if they use that cash that they have that remaining or generated from their operations in a smart way they can add to that advantage over time and we'll end up with you know iris energy being one of the premier bitcoin miners out there Now, tomorrow we do get the PCE numbers, so inflation numbers, and they will be informative with regards to whether or not the Fed is going to cut rates in December. Right now, the market is giving a sixty three percent chance that yes, indeed, the Fed will cut rates. So we'll see if that increases or decreases. Obviously, cooler inflation will be bullish and increase the probability of a rate cut in December. Now, to put the retracement in Bitcoin's price in context, Bitcoin ETFs notched the biggest week ever for them last week, adding three point one billion as Bitcoin neared one hundred thousand. so it's to be expected after such a strong run that there is a bit of a pullback now something very noteworthy in this article is that investors were also keen on altcoins like solana and threw money at european funds giving exposure to the coin sixteen million hit such vehicles compared to two point eight million for ethereum products so The word is out, basically, with regards to what is the best smart contract platform. And it's not Ethereum anymore. Investors want Solana. And eventually, the market caps will reflect this. Looking at where we are in the cycle and whether this is a top that we're falling from or is it just a local maximum and we'll have a... retracement but then a rebound looking at the mvrv's z score now we are still quite a ways away from this danger area here in red we're closer to three then and the danger area starts at around seven let's say you know six to be on the safe side but we're still a ways away from there now something giving some nervousness to the market is the talk about tariffs and from vowing to add tariffs on everything, stuff coming from China, from Mexico, from Canada. This is going to contribute to inflation, which is causing investors to be kind of nervous as to what happens. But I do think that certainly the appointments that Trump has made on the economic front may help in tempering a bit the severity of the moves that are taken and the threat of retaliation and the more clarity we have with regards to exactly what type of retaliation will happen will also temper the move for terror. So I'm not terribly concerned about this as I mentioned before I do think trump is someone who really judges judges himself by and his presidency by how the economy is doing and how the stock market is doing and therefore he doesn't want to do something that's going to you know tank markets or tank the economy so with that being said I the the summary here is that uh we are in a good spot and I believe that the retracement that we have experienced is a very normal one and is one to be expected considering how strong of a move we've had in November. And for the right assets, it is an opportunity to pick up some additional shares and strengthen our position in those assets. So just as one looks at Black Friday deals in a positive light, I think, some of the deals in the market and the depreciation in price that some assets have experienced can be looked at in the same light. And with that, let's take some questions. So Salaam Rashaad, nice to see you. Salaam Ali. I don't think the Fed, I think, fifty base points for Chad is off the table. I don't think there's any possibility for that to happen. It's either zero or twenty five in December. And so I think that it's not going to make too much of a difference whether it ends up being zero or twenty five. I mean, maybe in the short term, the markets react in a certain way to either. But the reason why I don't think it's that big of a deal is because. If it doesn't do the cut of twenty five base point in December, it'll do it in the meeting after that. So it's it's not too big of a deal. They're just changing the timeline a bit. But the general strategy of reducing interest rates to neutral rate, which I think is around three percent, that still holds. Maybe it takes a little longer to get there, but we're still on the same path. So I wouldn't really lose sleep about that. Oh, thanks, getting back into investing now. These are very helpful. Keep up the good work. Well, thank you so much. I really appreciate that. I should mention, um, thirty five percent off for a limited time using code boron on the membership plans. The premium membership gets you access, obviously, to our community, which is so amazing. I really think that we have one of the best communities out there, if not the best. And also you get access to my portfolios where I'm investing real money in and whenever I make a trade, deep dives, et cetera. And with the elite membership, you get access to our course. And just keep in mind, nothing in this video is meant to be personalized financial advice. It is just my thoughts on things. Make sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Salamat Muhammad Qaddura. Nice to see you. It's been a while. Salam Abdulmohsen. Salam Kareem. Sami, nice to see you. Well, earnings came out just before I went live, so I will take a deeper look at the earnings. And I'm going to, after ending this stream, I'll be listening to their earnings call and going over their numbers with a fine-tooth comb, inshallah, and giving an update as soon as I have one, inshallah, including new buy and sell prices. can you see iron hitting forty dollars by the end of next year I don't think it's I don't think it's out of the question it really depends on the amount of dilution that they end up that they end up with and you know if they're able to pull back the rate of dilution I think shares can appreciate they did have a very interesting slide in their investment presentation which I'd like to go over in greater detail I'm interested in the ceo's comments on it but it did show different scenarios for the price of Bitcoin and what that would mean for the price of IS Energy stock. And so it's always refreshing for an investor to see the CEO talking about what the investors care about, which is their investment and what's happening to it. And knowing that management is is putting the shareholders' concerns, you know, front and center. And so that is encouraging. And there is an opportunity. I think there's, you know, if we were to draw a normal distribution, I would say, uh, end of the distribution it's not near the center I think near the center would be something you know fifteen to twenty dollars per share when do you think it's time to start allocating to altcoins well altcoins basically ninety nine point nine percent of them are complete garbage so now for some of these altcoins the the time to allocate is never I think there are some diamonds in the rough, and there are certain attributes to diamonds in the rough, including having a fair launch, including having a very well-known management, including having very active... um code base things like this increase the chances that the that the token is not you know just a pump and dump scheme so when one of those are found and I think they have a reasonable price and market cap considering their potential, then the time to buy would be then. So yeah, I think generally crypto assets, the time to invest is now, but you have to find the right one. And for some of them, the time to invest is never. Dr. Boss says we will see many of these crypto market corrections on our March upwards. Yes, this is indeed true. It certainly has happened in every other cycle. So this is par for the course. And I think they are to be taken advantage of when you know what you're doing. Nice to see you. I really like your last name. Nizna says, Assalamu alaikum all. Hope iron pops tomorrow. It will be volatile. It certainly was volatile since their announcements. So they were up initially close to ten percent and then they pulled back. So there'll be a lot of volatility. You can bank on that. Wayaka Muhammad. you feel your portfolio is crypto heavy uh no I think it's appropriate for the time I guess bitcoin to reach a hundred thousand correctly before end of year what is your best guess for peak bitcoin soul and does the cycle and when uh okay um well I do think that bitcoin will easily surpass a hundred and fifty next year not really sure about the peak but I think it will pass at one fifty um with regards to seoul that's a tougher thing because there's you know new entrants all the time and it's you know this is a technology play whereas you know something like bitcoin and george coin is less a technology play and more a distribution slash marketing play and And so I'll abstain from choosing the top there for Sol, this crypto cycle. For Doge, I think that it will exceed its last all-time highs, which were around seventy cents per token. Do you think Elon Musk's involvement with Doge will affect his contribution to Tesla and also rumors about buying MSNBC? No, I don't think so. With regards to how these things are done, He has a close-knit group of people that he relies on and delegates to, and so he'll be making big decisions with regards to vision and strategy. But he's not in the weeds of the day-to-day operations. So I think he'll be able to do both. He's certainly proven that he's able to do both. Yeah, I think for Tesla, it really depends on your investment horizon. If it's multiple year, then yeah, I would back up the truck on Tesla. right so the is energy earnings call has started I'd like to jump on that call and um if you enjoyed this live uh do uh leave a like subscribe hit the notification bell become a member if you aren't already and make sure to take some time to stop and smell the roses and enjoy your day and forget about the markets and forget about everything else And enjoy your family because that's really what's important. Don't stress about the markets. They will take care of themselves, inshallah. Alright, assalamu alaikum. Take care. Till next time. Peace be upon you all.