The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🌟 The Smartest Market Recap: 11-27-2024 🌟

• Rakaan Kayali

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🌟 The Smartest Market Recap: 11-27-2024 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Bitcoin Reaches $97,350 & Crypto Update
  • Inflation Data & Market Reaction
  • Iris Energy Jumps 30%
  • Rate Cut Probabilities Rise for December
  • Closing Thoughts & Community Updates

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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Assalamu alaikum all. I hope you are doing well. A rebound in Bitcoin's price today. We reached ninety seven thousand. We got some really strong economic data that is really pointing in the right direction. however you look at it we got inflation data that met expectations and some other encouraging economic data and so we're setting up for a really strong end of year and strong twenty twenty five to be honest so all systems are go as they say the indices did pull back a bit today but our major positions did quite well so the Dow Jones was down point three one percent the Nasdaq was down point eight five percent and the S&P was down point three eight percent the Russell or small caps were up point one four percent and the dollar index was down which is what we want to see the VIX was unchanged uh Tesla Was down slightly. The big story for today. As it relates to our portfolios. Iris Energy was up. Thirty percent. And. Bitcoin. Recovered today. Touched actually. Ninety seven thousand. I'm sorry. Ninety seven thousand. Three hundred and fifty. Doge is back up. Above forty cents. And Solana is back up. to two hundred and forty one bitcoin doge and solana all up more than four percent in the last twenty four hours so what did we get today we got uh some major economic uh news as it relates to inflation so personal consumption expenditure or pce was a point two percent on the month and showed a twelve month inflation rate of two point three percent, which was in line with the expectation. Core inflation increased point three percent. and annually that's two point eight percent also as forecast but not only that spending grows point four percent on the month as forecast and personal income this was the positive surprise personal income jumped point six percent well above the point three estimates so we have inflation that seems under control we have spending that's still at healthy levels and we have income that is increasing more than expected so this was a really solid group of economic data that we got today and as I mentioned it's really pointing towards a strong end of year for the markets and for risk assets and a strong twenty twenty five at least for the first half We also got home sales and they climbed a two percent in October marking the third straight month of gains, which is sort of surprising considering the mortgage rates are still at seven percent. Now, the ultimate result of this economic data was that the probability for a rate cut in December rose to sixty six point five percent. And that's what risk assets want to see. They want to see this probability rising as opposed to decreasing. And today's probability is in contrast to yesterday's probability of fifty nine percent for a cut in December. Fifty five percent a week before that. And. And and so we are on the right track here with regards to probabilities for a rate cut. So today it's just sort of a really short live and I just wanted to check in and basically tell you guys that Assalamu alaikum to all in the chat. Yeah, I saw your comment Wilson. I was on time. But yeah, so all systems are go. And I think that we are well positioned. Congratulations to the PIF members who took some profits today on IOS Energy. Always take profits. As I say, you don't know what happens tomorrow. And if you'd like to be part of our journey, then make sure you take advantage of the thirty five, thirty five percent off for a limited time promotion that we have going on. And it does seem that we're going to reach our our target that we put for ourselves, which was a stretch goal, to be honest, but we're going to meet that well before the end of the month. And so maybe a few hours or a day or two at max where this promotion continues to be valid. So if you are interested in becoming a PIF member, make sure you do that. and join our community, we'd love to have you. So going straight to questions, Hannibal. Yeah, so stock to flow is a really, I think, strong indicator. It's a reliable indicator. It has a very tried and true track record. for predicting the general ballpark of where bitcoin price is so I think it's a decent a decent place to start if you're trying to figure out where we should be in terms of bitcoin's price thanks ashad I appreciate that and I'm looking forward to seeing you along with everyone else who signed up for our in-person event in dallas I'm really pumped for that assalamu alaikum We'll see what happens with regards to Friday. So markets are closed on Thursday. I won't be going live on Thursday and I won't be going live on Friday. There's a half day of market activity on Friday. But in terms of for PIF members, there may or may not be some trades to do on Friday. We'll have to see how things shape up in terms of prices. uh when do you think miners will peak uh I do think that it makes sense to take some profits if we get a run like I'm expecting um in December um but if we don't get a run then I think you know Q one We'll probably get a run, and therefore that would be the time to take some profits. Although when you look at some of the miners, especially the ones that we're invested in, they do have long-term potential beyond just the current cycle. And so there's an argument for perhaps leaving some position in it, but we'll see. We'll see what the market gives us, and we'll play the cards that were dealt, inshallah. We'll see, Maruf, as I mentioned. Hey, . um yeah so the I'm I think you're referring to the earnings before so ebitda number mentioned in their presentation um I I would take that with a grain of salt I definitely sandbagged the the numbers that they gave us in my targets for uh buy below and sell above I'd like to always have a a safe a a generous margin of safety when I'm coming up with my target prices and so you know the the common example this from warren buffett is like okay you have a bridge and it can allow for you know a twenty ton vehicle on it you don't want to actually go over it with a twenty ton vehicle you want a margin of safety and so you you max out at something below twenty tons and the same is true with my buy and sell prices if I think you know fair value for something is nineteen I'm not gonna put the sell above price at nineteen I'm gonna put it at below that because I'd like to have a margin of safety so that's what we did with iris Yeah, inshallah, there will be multiple in-person events in different locations, inshallah. But I do want to have one annual sort of big event for PIF members, and we'll have that in the location where we think the largest number of people can attend, inshallah. So as it relates to Zakat, I think it's useful to look at some of the videos that I've made on the topic that are on practical Islamic finance. And I think incorporating zakat into our sort of PIF membership in a robust way and also sadaqah. So not just zakat but sadaqah is really something that I'm looking to do in the upcoming period. PIF two point O is upcoming inshallah. So look out for that. I'm very excited about it. We've had amazing success so far. I think I'm really happy with the growth that we've had, but I have ambition for much more than this and providing a more complete service for you all. So inshallah, that is up and coming. Be sure to sign up and become a PIF member if you haven't already. Like and subscribe. Today's going to be a short one, guys, that I'm going to let you guys go and enjoy the profits and enjoy your family. And yeah, make prayer for the people in Syria. I'm very... optimistic about what is going on and I think it's a pivotal moment for Muslims everywhere people who read history know how important know how important that region is and so make sure to make dua for the people in Syria until next time make sure to take care of yourself Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all