The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-02-2024 🌟

• Rakaan Kayali

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🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-02-2024 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro & Updates
  • Economic News: Rate Cut Probability
  • Bitcoin Surge Analysis: $100K by Year-End?
  • Tesla's Stock & Pay Package Controversy
  • Closing Remarks & Viewer Questions 

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DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you're doing well. I know, I know. It's the middle of the night practically for a lot of you. But I did get back to the studio today. I was actually on a flight earlier and recently got back. I wanted to go live. Because it's been a while since I've seen you guys, since I've spoken with you guys, since I've went live. I wanted to get back in the rhythm of things. And there's so much exciting stuff happening that I just wanted to share. talk about it. And, you know, maybe this slide doesn't get many views because of the timing, but nevertheless, I wanted to go live. So thank you for all who have made it today. The indices were pretty much flat. We are waiting some important economic news this week that will tell us a lot about the state of the economy. And that's going to impact the probabilities for a rate cut in December, which is the month that we're in right now. So we'll get job openings on Tuesday. And the most important piece of data in my point of view is the payrolls data that we'll get on Friday. So that will be very instructive in terms of gauging the level, the temperature of the economy. Currently, the probability for a rate cut in December has actually increased from around sixty percent the last time I spoke with you guys to close to seventy five percent today. And so things are looking very good for risk assets in light of this. Now, we have seen a lot of chop and perhaps nervousness, hesitation, if you will, in the markets. But this is to be expected considering how much we've run in recent weeks. Remember, in November, we went from sixty thousand to twenty. to close to a hundred thousand for the price of Bitcoin. So some consolidation and a chop is to be expected in the price of Bitcoin, very similar to the Syrian rebels who have made enormous gains in an even shorter period of time. And now there's some consolidation going there. Very expected and normal, alhamdulillah, for that. And by the way, if you think for some reason you're going to... Now, this is not economics or finance related, so bear with me here. But if in your mind, Syrians going back to their houses... to their villages, to their cities, is in some way bad, a bad thing, is in some way serving Israel, then your morality is backwards. You need to really review why the heck you think in this way. For a lot of people, it's going to be blind sectarianism that got them to these bizarre conclusions. properly developed morality, let alone a Muslim, should understand that this is fundamentally a great thing that we should be all happy about. And I don't really think the Muslim Ummah appreciates how important Aleppo is and the history of that region. If you look at, for example, when Jerusalem was liberated from the Crusaders, it started with Aleppo. This is a very big event, so I think that There's reason to be very optimistic. Alhamdulillah is all I'm going to say. Leave a like on this live if you appreciate these lives as a welcome back. And by the way, after I sent the email yesterday about the promotion being close to expiring, within half an hour, we had reached the limit. And so I got a bunch of emails after that, basically saying that, Hey, you just sent the email and the code says it expired. So I extended the code for another day. So Use the code BORONTWENTYFOUR, but that's it. I won't extend it more than that. Use the code BORONTWENTYFOUR if you're interested in the thirty five percent off promotion that we got going on. And by the way, nothing in this video is meant to be personalized financial advice. Be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. All right, guys. So back to finance. So Tesla got some headwinds today in the form of some news items, but it's still up three and a half percent, still beasting through all time highs for the year. Bitcoin got some headwinds today in some news, but it's still at ninety six thousand holding up very nicely. So we'll talk about that in a second. So let's start with Bitcoin. So Silk Road Bitcoin worth nearly two billion moved to Coinbase Prime. So this was So the US government has a bunch of Bitcoin that it confiscated, in this case from Silk Road, and moved two billion to Coinbase, which means that most likely this two billion is going to be sold soon. So there's going to be some sell pressure in Bitcoin. But when you look at what's going on, general context I think this is going to be easily picked up by the market there's a drought of bitcoin on otc desks and in brokerages so this is going to be easily soaked up and the price of bitcoin the resilience of the price of bitcoin is kind of testament to the fact that the market kind of agrees with me on this that this is not going to be an issue for bitcoin to soak up that uh selling pressure what I did find surprising is checking here on calci and the probabilities for when bitcoin hits a hundred thousand and for before december thirty first probability is just sixty five percent I think that is understated. I think that is less than what it actually is. I think there's a much higher probability that we hit a hundred K by December thirty first and probably hit higher than that by December thirty first. I mean, for crying out loud, we're already at ninety six thousand so we're a stone throws away from a hundred okay so not sure what's going on with the calci betting markets but this sixty five percent is off all right so uh as it relates to tesla's headwinds so tesla ceo elon musk lost the bid to get fifty six billion pay package reinstated so quick backstory here years ago the tesla board agreed to a pay package for elon musk based on him reaching what were at the time extremely lofty unlikely goals in the future and guess what he reached them and so he's owed his money he's owed his pay and so a bunch of lawyers no good scheming, good for nothing lawyers who contribute no value. I'm not talking about all lawyers. I'm talking about these particular lawyers contribute no value to society, are just parasites on other people and enterprises that are successful. They decided to sue on behalf of Tesla shareholders, they found some dude who had a few shares and convinced him to sue Tesla on the grounds that Elon Musk's pay package was too large. And the judge in Delaware scratched her head and was like, oh yeah, this makes sense. He's getting paid a lot more than I am. So maybe it is too large. So Tesla goes back and they go to their shareholders and they say, listen, because part of the argument for the judge in the first place was the shareholders didn't really know what was going on. So Tesla went back to the shareholders and they did a vote to ratify the pay package for Elon Musk. And It passed with flying colors. Seventy percent, more than seventy percent of shareholders said, yeah, this is what we want to pay the CEO of the company that we're owners of. And the judge after this vote said, oh, well, you know, we already gave our judgment, so we're not going to include additional facts. But what's really interesting upsetting about this whole situation is that this judge and this is why I think this is you know there's more to it than meets the eye this judge said while it rejected elon musk's pay package This judge approved a three hundred and forty five million dollar attorney fee award for the lawyers who successfully sued on behalf of Tesla shareholders in order to avoid Musk's pay plan. So Musk's pay is outrageous. But these lawyers who did nothing, who built nothing, who provided no value to anyone, who are simply leeches on society, they deserve three hundred and forty five million dollars in attorney fees. That's what's really upsetting about this. So but despite this, Tesla is still up. Three and a half percent today now. Perhaps part of the reason for this is, but I would be surprised because if people are listening to this analyst, I don't know what's wrong with them. Tesla turns a bear into a bull with a massive narrative and price target switch. So there was this bear. He's one of, I think, two remaining bears on the street with regards to Tesla. And he's been, his name is Craig Irwin. He's been a bear on Tesla for years. He had a price target for Tesla of eighty five dollars and he changed it to three hundred and eighty dollars. So I don't know what what the heck happened. How do you go from a price target of eighty five to three hundred and eighty? Maybe he was hit by a bolt of lightning. He was concussed when he made the eighty five dollar price. I don't know how on earth you can. you go from eighty five to three eighty. What type of analysis gets you there? But this is what happened. And. He thinks that, you know, part of the and he still doesn't get it, to be honest, because I saw it. the interview with him on CNBC, and he was basically saying, oh, well, you know, a lot of conservative voters are going to start buying Tesla now because, you know, Tesla, Elon Musk aligned himself with Donald Trump. That's not the reason why you should have a bullish perspective on Tesla at all. You should have a bullish perspective on Tesla because of autonomy and because of their robots and their A.I., and the mass production capacity that they have and the synergies between all of that. That's why you should have a bullish stance on Tesla. Not because, you know, conservative voters are now going to find EVs appealing. Anyways. So he says, Yeah, so enthusiasm for Tesla among conservative voters comprising a mostly fresh buying pool should also lift the demand trajectory. Now, he does say something that I do agree with, which is that the removal of the seventy five hundred EV tax credit by Trump is going to be in Tesla's favor. Because basically it will make it even tougher for other EV companies to compete with Tesla. So Tesla's. Tesla's lead is going to be solidified basically and something that you know may help Tesla substantially with regards to Elon Musk's alignment with Donald Trump is in the field of regulation and getting full self-driving approved. Now, as it relates to regulation, I do want to show you guys this video, which I think is basically, we can call it game set and match for the full self-driving. So this is a Tesla that is navigating a parking lot. By the way, this is sped up. So don't get concerned that Tesla is going to tear through a parking lot at this speed. But. This is a Tesla that's navigating through a parking lot. It's going to find itself a parking space by itself. There's no one turning the steering wheel here. It's going to find its spot amongst the charging spots in the parking lot, and it's going to do a perfect parking job. This is big, guys. This is why you should have a three hundred and eighty dollar price target on Tesla. And I think it's twenty twenty five is going to be a turning point for Tesla stock. I think we're going to get a breakout in Tesla stock. We're going to make new all time highs in Tesla stock. And it's going to be very hard for Tesla Investors who haven't built up a position in Tesla to build one up if they haven't already. So with that being said, let's go to questions. Thank you all for coming. Wow, we have a lot of people who came. Thank you all for coming. Salam, brother. What price do you think Bitcoin will peak at this cycle? You know, honestly, the entire concept of cycles for Bitcoin cycles Specifically, maybe at the end of its term, or at least the cycles will be much more muted because there are so many sources of continuous bids that are manifesting. I mean, it started with the ETFs, but now we're getting sovereigns and corporates adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. the cycles may not be as extreme as we have experienced. That being said, I do think that by the end of this year, I think we fly by the hundred thousand dollar mark. And next year, I think we fly by the two hundred thousand dollar mark. This is just, I mean, and Why I say this, I think perhaps the biggest catalyst of next year will be the United States using Bitcoin or identifying Bitcoin as a reserve asset. It's going to create competition between other companies. It's going to legitimize Bitcoin as an asset. And a lot of people, financial professionals who may have been convinced with Bitcoin previously But we're kind of concerned to speak up at the risk of having recommended a very risky asset that doesn't have proper institutional adoption or, you know, proper recognition, they're going to have the courage to actually start making allocations to Bitcoin. I mean, after all, the United States itself made an allocation to Bitcoin. So that's going to be a big for Bitcoin. Hey, Assalamualaikum. Nice to see you. Muhammad Abdullah. I'm not really a big fan of CLSK just because of the compensation package and how it's structured for CLSK's management. Nice to see you, Yahya. Thanks for staying awake for us, Effendi Qasim. Hey, yeah, that's awesome. Thanks for waiting for us, Effendi. No short selling is not halal in my assessment. Nice to see you, Rashad. I did have a great time. we'll catch you later inshallah nice to see you Zuhair nice to see you Hussain or Muhammad Hussain my thoughts on XRP are not changed I mean I do see that it has I think what's going on you know largely is a short squeeze in the price of XRP but from a fundamentals perspective still not on my buy list uh hamid says assalamu alaikum brother can can you please introduce more ticker for overall portfolio yes inshallah we will be introducing more what do you think of syn coin perhaps in the future I will look at it um So renewing subscription with the discount code. So to be honest, the discount is meant for people to encourage people who haven't tried the membership to give it a try. That's what the discount code is meant for. So it's not really meant for renewals. Hopefully, if you've been with us for a year, you've made multiple times what you paid for the premium membership or elite membership or whatever membership you have. That's kind of the thinking behind it. I hope you understand. But that being said, you could always cancel your account and create a new one if you feel like that's the right thing to do. Abdul Hassan says, Salam, all. Like the live. Hey, thanks, Abdul. I appreciate it. Brother Rakan, what is your current views on XRP? I said that. Salam, Khaled. Nice to see you. Is Boyran. So I just answered that, Jenna. So I don't want to guilt anyone. If someone is, if we have any members that are like, they need the money, just cancel your account and sign up with a new account. Totally fine with me. So, yeah. That would be one way to use the discount code. But use it quickly. Yesterday, we hit our target within, I think, thirty minutes to an hour of me sending that email. So I would try and do it sooner rather than later before it expires. Nevertheless, if you can't afford to be a PIF member, I totally understand. I would still love to have you on our lives. I really enjoy these, whether you're a PIF member or not. So do tune in, leave a like, subscribe, hit the notification bell, and tell your friends about us. And yeah, until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.