The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-04-2024 🌟

• Rakaan Kayali

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🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-04-2024 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Dow Hits 45K and Market Overview
  • Tesla’s Year High & Model Incentives
  • Bitcoin Approaching $100K!
  • IS Energy CEO's CNBC Appearance
  • Mawson Infrastructure's Volatility Explained
  • Closing Remarks

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Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, December fourth, and the Dow Jones has exceeded forty five thousand for the first time ever. The Nasdaq is up. The S&P is up. The Russell is up. Heck, even the VIX is up. So we're we're we're fearful and we're greedy at the same time. Tesla reached a new all time or not all time high, sorry, but near year high or In fact, it hasn't been this high since two and a half years ago. It closed today at three hundred and fifty eight. Tesla did announce today that the zero percent interest offer that they have on Model Y's and Model three's is going to expire December fifteen. So if you're interested, that's something I think. should consider if you're in the united states and you can get such an offer I wouldn't buy a car that doesn't have full self-driving capability after having experienced it and seeing how rapidly it's progressing so just my two cents make of it what you will uh nvidia is up uh three and a half percent eventually tesla is going to go on the same run and even a stronger run than nvidia inshallah And we'll be here for it. We'll be well positioned for it. Bitdeer was up close to nine percent. It was actually up a lot more earlier today, but we'll get back to there. And IOS Energy was up more than ten percent. We'll talk about the appearance that the IOS Energy CEO had today on CNBC. And he's basically been watching Practical Islamic Finance, taking notes, and then he repeated his notes, what he learned from us in his interview. One stock that was not doing too hot today was Mawson. We'll talk about why that is the case. Maybe there's an opportunity there. Kind of looks pretty, at least intriguing, the way it's trading right now. That being said, it's too early to touch, in my opinion. Gold is at twenty six hundred. Bitcoin exceeded ninety nine thousand today. Again, getting pushed back at the one hundred thousand resistance. Once I think we break through one hundred thousand, we're going to be at one hundred and ten, one hundred and twenty before you know it. Doge is at forty two cents and Solana is at two thirty two. So as I mentioned, I have been mentioning all systems are go and we're seeing that in the risk assets. If you look at the what the market is pricing in in terms of interest rate cuts and their probability, seventy seven percent now. probability for an interest rate cut in December. And Powell, this month that is, and Powell had comments today and he mentioned that there were no clues as to, he didn't give any clues as to which way he's leaning on the near-term path for interest rates, though he did note that the Fed can afford to be cautious. So they don't have to really be in a hurry with cutting interest rates because The economy is doing well. The strength of the economy gives him some leeway for cutting interest rates. And so Powell said that the US economy is the envy of other large economies around the world. And I have to agree with him at this point in time. Things that are doing well are the Syrian rebels who are now close to Hama, make dua for them, as I mentioned. I do believe that the Ummah does not realize how pivotal of a moment in history this is, what we're living through right now. Inshallah, the liberation and the freedom of the Syrian people is going to be a pivotal moment in our history and what is after it is going to be a lot brighter and a lot more prosperous and In all ways, a lot more positive, inshallah, than what came before it, inshallah. I'm so optimistic. All right, let's talk about IS Energy, one of our primary positions in our growth portfolio. We've made so much money on this stock and we continue to make money, alhamdulillah. Alhamdulillah. And so let's talk about that and what the IS Energy CEO said today on CNBC. CNBC. All right. Right. Bitcoin, we've seen the price skyrocket. You have companies like MicroStrategy going out into the market and looking to snap up all the available supply as quickly as it comes online. Seems like a very big opportunity. It's where your roots are. And then on the other side, even just this hour with some of the earnings we got, the fact that AI seems to be materializing in a more meaningful way across companies, whether in the case of just this hour, we heard about it from Salesforce, we heard about it from Marvell Technology, from Box. How are you thinking about these two different businesses and how they coexist? Yeah, it's a great question and thanks for having me, Morgan. Six years ago when my brother and I set up Iron, it was done on the premise of this digital world revolution we're going through. So the whole world's ongoing online, the digitization thematic. We quoted movies like The Matrix, Ready Player One. As a society, we're heading that way directionally. And for us, it was all about tying up the scarce resource, power, land, data center capacity, because fundamentally what you're dealing with in the digital world is exponential growth. This is fundamental because land and access to power kind of like Bitcoin is limited. And so this is a a play on a limited resource kind of like how bitcoin is and that puts bitcoin miners that have already positioned themselves with the land with the power access with the potential capacity This has positioned them in a very advantageous way because demand is going to increase, whereas the supply is limited, as I mentioned. Access to power, land, that's just a limited resource. So their assets should go up in price. Compound growth formulas where adoption curves go vertical overnight, whether it's Bitcoin being zero fifteen years ago to a trillion dollar asset today, whether it's AI a year ago, not being spoken about much to the next biggest thing and ultimately leveraging a real asset base power land infrastructure into the most into two of the most exciting exponential themes that I think will define the next decade is super exciting. So how quickly can you lock up power, land, and some of these finite resources? I mean, we just mentioned the fact that you brought some more capacity online for Bitcoin mining, but how much more can you bring on? A lot. We've been planning for years. We've locked up two point three gigawatts of power and land over the last. This is really the potential of iron. Why I have it as a primary position in our portfolio is that they've locked up. these resources and their capacity for expansion, whether it's Bitcoin mining exahash or high performance computing is extremely large, at least in the top three amongst Bitcoin miners in terms of that potential. And eventually investors are going to, and they are, we're seeing it in real time. They're going to appreciate that. And it's gonna reflect in its stock price. Few years at one site, one point four gigawatts recently announced in Sweetwater, Texas. One point four gigawatts today would represent one of the largest data center markets in the world. Not projects, markets. It is enormous. I think the only larger market that exists today would be that of Northern Virginia. So how far out is the risk of overbuilding with all of this AI and crypto excitement and over leveraging in the process? So that's the funny thing. I'm talking about really big numbers relative to where the industry is now. But we're talking about requirements of fifty gigawatts, five zero gigawatts by twenty thirty of new AI data center capacity, according to McKinsey. What we've got, despite it being really big relative to the existing capacity today, it's a drop in the ocean relative to where we need to go. And this is the whole real world digital world dislocation. You've got these exponential growth drivers in the digital world, AI, Bitcoin, whatever's around the corner. But the ability to service that is dictated by real world challenges. And there becomes an inflection point where the real world can no longer scale exponentially. You cannot click your fingers. Right. So this is the thesis in a nutshell. The demands for capacity from the digital world is going to exceed the physical limitations for expansion in the real world. And so that outsized growth in demand versus supply is going to cause prices to increase. That's in a nutshell, the thesis for the business that Iris is in. And come up with tens of gigawatts of power and land. You cannot plug a computer into a high voltage transmission line. And this time to power narrative, it's absolutely real. It is taking longer. It is getting harder to build all this real world infrastructure. So time to power narrative essentially is referring to if I want to build a data center and I want to power it and I need to acquire the proper permits and the land, the time that this takes is many years. If I'm a hyperscaler, I could go that route or I could look at something like Iris Energy and I could say, why don't I just... work with them, employ their resources and get to get online much quicker. So, um, again, this is why, uh, their assets, I think have a good, uh, have a good potential for appreciation. To service these digital exponential trends on the one hand. Okay. Um, All right. So that's with regards to Iris Energy. We're reaffirming our thesis there. Always taking profits, though, taking profits from our Bitcoin miners. These are highly volatile assets, as I mentioned in the note today to PIF members. If you're not a PIF member, become one. I'd rather sell into strength than sell into weakness. And I'm not going to time the top exactly right. So I'm either going to sell before the top or after the top. And I'd rather sell before the top than after it. All right, let's talk briefly about The stinker today, which was Mawson. And what's going on over there? All right, so Mawson Infrastructure, involuntary petition filed against Mawson Infrastructure Group. So in a nutshell, Mawson owes a bunch of money to a bunch of creditors and the creditors don't have confidence that Mawson is going to pay it back. So they filed an involuntary petition for reorganization under chapter eleven. So this is not chapter seven where the company necessarily goes bankrupt. Um, it is, is it, um, so this is, or ceases to exist, I should say rather chapter eleven bankruptcy is where, you know, there's an opportunity for reorganization and then, um, and you know, that the company may remain a going concern and get back into a healthy, uh, state now, but in response to this, the stock was down. sixty five percent basically and I can see you know why that has happened um oh wow look after hours um it's up seventy six percent um so is that okay so um yeah so If you were selling equity, if you were selling options here, you probably did well. Um, Or if you are selling options, if you own options, you probably did well as well because of their volatility. Before you ask me, no, I'm not really comfortable with options. Generally speaking, there are some exceptions. But the market cap is twelve million. Let's see, the revenue last quarter was twelve million. operating expense is fourteen million or close to fifteen so not really keeping it real as it relates management isn't as it relates to their operating expenses cash flow is well you can imagine cash flow is pretty bad cash flow from operations is a negative one point two four million so you can see someone who's owed thirteen million might be nervous about their ability to repay so Yeah, we'll see if there's any new news about this stock. But I was going to suggest that it might be an interesting opportunity given how bearish the market reacted to it and the fact that, you know, ultimately it is in the right businesses. It just needs to be managed better. But I'll try to get to the bottom of this, what's going on with the movements here. But yeah, so for now, if I had it, I would just hold it and see what transpires from this. So it would be a hold for me right now. So Ali Imam asks about that. So I think I just answered it. Uh, Rashad says Salaam or Ken, what do you think about that Powell today? Walaikum Salaam Rashad. I think he said, I don't think he surprised me in any way in terms of his comments. I think they were kind of right over home plate. What I expected them to say. I mean, I do agree with him that the strength of the economy suggests that, but he doesn't necessarily need to be in a hurry to cut interest rates. Um, I think you should stop thinking about positions that you exited. And as it relates to when to exit a position, a hundred percent, I would exit a position when my thesis about it changes. And yeah. China says no more precious metal. There's going to be a lot of stuff like that, Rashad. There's going to be a lot of back and forth between the United States and China. We'll see how that plays out. It will definitely have an impact on the markets, especially after the Trump administration assumes office. We'll just have to trade around that. Samarkand is entering the crypto market. Doge and Sol now. I mean, I would be more into doge than I would be into soul if I'm being completely honest because I just see it's uh it's upside is higher than solana's upside I really support the Syrian revolution, but my biggest concern is that once the old regime is gone, a new one that serves Israel interests will be established. I've heard this so many times. It's like, okay, for people who are concerned about that, where do you think the Syrian people are from? Do you think they're from Mars? Who do you think they are? What do you think the position of the average Syrian person towards Israel is? I mean, give me a break, sorry, but give me a break. If the Syrian people are able to govern themselves, I don't think they're going to have a government that's friendly with Israel. Now, we're not fighting for another dictator to be installed in Syria. We're fighting for the Syrian people to control their own destiny and to choose their own people and to choose their own policies. And so, so long as that's the case, then I trust the Syrian people. Uh, also says may, um, may Allah make it easy for our brothers and show us. Yeah. I mean, I mean, I didn't buy any iron stock. Shall I buy now or wait until the price stop? So I would stick to my buy below sell above prices that we have on our PIF watch list. Brother Amir was perfect amount to sell. What exactly is the perfect amount to sell is just enough so that you're happy if it continues to go up. And if it goes down, you're happy that you sold so you can buy back. Maybe up eighty percent after hours. Yeah. That's yeah. Expect a lot of volatility is all I'm going to say. So if we had. Lithium prices, let's see here. Where is the lithium today? Commodities. Yeah, I mean, I think they're due for recovery. Lithium prices are. And yeah, not to the extent where, you know, That perhaps at least not in the near term, the extent to where demand is going to outstrip supply. But the same argument that we made for power access to power access to land in some respects can be made for lithium. The demand for lithium is increasing, but at current prices, the supply cannot increase. No more new projects are being built. made and initiated. And so the supply is basically stagnant. In some cases, it's going down because some operations are finding it unprofitable. So eventually, price of lithium has to recover. When that happens, I don't know. But I do think probably sooner rather than later. Okay, so Wilson, thank you for that. So Wilson says, and this is what he's mentioning, Mason is recovering. Mason refutes false reports of a voluntary Chapter Eleven filing, explaining in an involuntary petition instead, the company vows to defend itself while maintaining operations. Okay. The whole situation is kind of a mess. Expect, as I mentioned, a lot of volatility. Right now, you know, I would just hold. Is there a schedule? Inshallah, Syria will be free soon. Guys, don't put our business out there. This is a public live. So don't put what's specific to PIF numbers out there. Yes, inshallah, we will be adding new stocks soon. Like and subscribe, guys. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. Make sure to take care of yourself. Until next time, assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.