The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-11-2024 🌟

• Rakaan Kayali

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🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-11-2024 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Nasdaq & Tesla All-Time Highs
  • Bitcoin Recovers to $100K
  • Inflation Report & Fed Rate Cuts Expected
  • Bitcoin Liquidations Explained
  • Microsoft vs. Amazon on Bitcoin Investments
  • Tesla vs. Bitcoin: Which Is Better?


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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. New all-time highs for the Nasdaq today and Tesla at four twenty five. It was actually north of four twenty five for a brief moment. We're actually at all time highs for this stock. So my my video on Tesla yesterday came at the right time, I believe. And there's a lot more where that came from. I still think twenty twenty five is going to be very good for us. Tesla holders. Bitcoin did extremely well today as well. It recovered quite nicely. As I said yesterday, I thought that the majority of the dip was liquidations related. And we'll take a look at that. So in the details here, the Dow Jones was down slightly. NASDAQ was up close to two percent today. S&P was up almost one percent. Andy Russell is up point five percent or point four or five percent. The Bull run in small caps, I don't think has started in earnest, which means that there is still some time there to find some diamonds in the rough and position ourselves accordingly, which is what I'm working on. Make sure to become a PIF member if you aren't already to follow my portfolio. VIX is down four percent and Bitdeer Iron recovered, Bitdeer recovered more than five percent today. and bitcoin is north of a hundred thousand again doge is north of forty again and solana is flirting with two thirty at the moment Today, we got the inflation numbers and they were in line with expectations. November's consumer price index, which tracks a basket of goods and services, was in line with expectations. The reading showed point three percent rise from October and two point seven percent increase from a year ago. excluding volatile food and energy prices which is called core cpi that increased point three percent on the month and three point three percent on an annual basis so we're still above the two percent target that the fed is looking for but it is close enough uh to the two percent target that the market thinks a Interest rate cut of at least twenty five base points is basically a shoe in for the Fed's meeting later this month. And in fact, if you look at the. Probabilities for a rate cut. In that meeting, they now jumped to ninety five percent. And so basically the market is quite sure of itself in terms of what the Fed is going to do later this month. If we look at the Bitcoin liquidations, we can see a spike here on December eighth, one point five billion was liquidated in long positions. And that obviously had a negative impact on price. And then December ninth, we had close to half a billion in longs that were liquidated. And then today that volume has subsided to less than a hundred million. So as I mentioned, this was liquidations related. Now it's very advantageous to be a higher conscious investor that doesn't deal with margin, doesn't deal with derivatives, because what you can do is you can basically bank on these types of sharp declines in asset prices that have very strong theses behind them. And this volatility is due to leverage. And you can take advantage of that by picking up assets that are falling sharply because of these liquidations. If it hadn't been for these derivatives and the high leverage that's in the market, then we would have a much more stable market and we wouldn't have the opportunities that were able to take advantage of. So the halal conscious investor is very much at a advantage compared to someone who deals with margins and deals with derivatives and so on. Microsoft shareholders voted against a Bitcoin investment. So we mentioned yesterday that Amazon was going to take a look into allocating part of its reserves into Bitcoin, and that's going to come in the first half of twenty twenty five. Microsoft had its vote today and they voted against the Bitcoin investment. And guess what? The price of Bitcoin did not care at all. Now, we did mention yesterday that, you know, if you're smart at one thing, that doesn't mean you're smart at other things. And you mentioned how Bill Gates was short Tesla. Well, he also if you don't If you don't know this about him, he's also not that bullish about Bitcoin. So the result is in line with the stance of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who owns a lot of shares of Microsoft and therefore had an outsized weighing on the vote result. He has long been a critical of cryptocurrencies. Gates has expressed concerns over crypto speculative nature and potential risks. So even though Microsoft voted against it, it's very likely that Amazon would vote for it, which would be, I think, a catalyst for other companies to look at it. But as I said, Bitcoin really doesn't. need a Microsoft or an Amazon. I do believe that these companies need Bitcoin. Otherwise, they're sitting on a mountain of cash that is a melting ice cube for them. You look at the Bitcoin stock to income model, because I was asked yesterday about stock to flow. Stock to income is very close to stock to flow, but I think is more comprehensive. The projected price for Bitcoin around this time is one hundred and eleven thousand. And as we saw, the actual price of Bitcoin is north of one hundred thousand. So this model continues to be very, very good at pinpointing the general area of Bitcoin's price. And I think it's worth looking at now. Having said that, if we look at the projected price for Bitcoin in October, twenty twenty five, that's north of three hundred thousand. I mentioned before that I thought we'd get north of two hundred thousand in twenty twenty five. According to this model, if we remain close to what this model is projecting, we should actually be closer to three hundred thousand. So that's some food for thought for you, for all of those who think, oh, maybe I missed Bitcoin. No, there's, I think, still meat left on the bone. And if you look at the MVRVZ score so that we're not sort of swept away with market excitement and we keep are head on and look at what the data is telling us. The Z-score for Bitcoin is still at a three and previously in previous cycles, the MVRV Z-score for Bitcoin Typically peaks at least close to a seven. So we're far from that at this point in the cycle. And therefore, I am comfortable saying that, inshallah, we are not near the end. There's still a lot of room to run, inshallah. It's not going to be a straight shot upwards, right? It never is. There will be bumps along the way, but these bumps will, inshallah, be opportunities. So with that, I'm going to take questions. Today is going to be a short live. I have somewhere to be, but let's take some questions. Hannibal, wa alaikum salam. Nice to see you. Are you more bullish on Bitcoin or Tesla? That's a very tough question to answer. I think longer term, Tesla has... more X's in it than Bitcoin. So if you're asking me for a long-term investment, I would go with Tesla versus Bitcoin. In the short term, it's very hard to say. Tesla has run up a lot and as has Bitcoin. So it's maybe a coin toss in the short term, but longer term, let's say if you ask me, I would say Tesla has a lot more in it than Bitcoin does. As-salamu alaykum, Yahya. Nice to see you. As-salamu alaykum, Rashad. Nice to see you as always. Yeah, so Rashad, I think perhaps you didn't get the notification about the live in Discord because typically I schedule it before half an hour or an hour and I just went live almost immediately. So that's probably why you didn't get it. Yunus, assalamu alaikum, brother. Wa alaikum assalam, Yunus. Nice to see you. May Allah reward you. Thank you very much. Because Bitdeer spiked recently compared to other miners. I've been saying this for a while, Yunus, which is that I think that on a relative basis, Bitdeer was valued more attractively than other miners, and I think it's catching up. Assalamu alaikum, Brother Khan. Nice to see you as always. Dr. Boss. Wa alaikum salam. With the toward pace, do you foresee any major correction next year or continued momentum up and to the right? I do think that January may be bumpy for us. January, February may be bumpy as people, as investors take profits and A lot of people have to pay taxes. But I do think that there will be a rebound. And, you know, the first half of twenty twenty five, you know, between how it starts and how it ends, it's going to be positive and not down. That's what I think as of now. today when you see doge taking off I mean I'm not sure what you mean by that uh sammy uh doge was ten cents and it's now north of forty cents so it has taken off to the tune of a four x I think there's uh more there I think that so yeah I think I mean the returns are are pretty good so far there's still meat left on the bone of course it will move with the rest of the crypto market Are you officially publishing new picking stocks and cryptos this weekend? So as I mentioned, I'm not going to stick to a deadline in terms of picks. I will uphold my promises in terms of deep dives that I do into new stocks and cryptos. But that doesn't mean necessarily that I'm going to make a pick. Because I don't want a pick to be made because I have a deadline to make a pick and actually put money behind it. Because I know a lot of people follow what I do and they put money behind it. And I don't want to, you know, this is a big responsibility that I take very seriously. So I'll make an investment when I find the right one and not based on a deadline. So that's inshallah what I'm going to stick to. Thanks, Jude. I appreciate that. Um, a very deluxe contribution, if I say so myself. Uh, Oh, Alice, nice to see you as well. Um, yeah, very deluxe contributions from, uh, both of you appreciate it. Um, I don't know when there'll be another promo code. I did run that promo code for a long time during November, Brother Altaf. So I'm not really thinking about another promo code at this point. So the things that we're watching are typically updated whenever the company reports earnings. So how do you determine buy and sell prices? Well, that is the secret sauce, brother Karim. No, I'm just kidding. It's a matter of discounting future cash flows based on an appropriate discount rate. And that is related to different things. Primarily the cost of capital is what we look at for the discount rate. I think the secret sauce comes with projecting growth and things like that. And also the quantitative analysis of the product itself and qualitative analysis, I'm sorry, of the product itself, as well as qualitative analysis of the industry and the size of the opportunity for the company. So this is actually both a science and an art. It's something that I go over. in the course uh which you can have access to if you become an elite member if you aren't already all right guys uh yeah like the live thank you yes alhamdulillah for what has happened in syria um doge you can buy on a crypto brokerage such as coinbase the united states or there's binance there's a bunch of other um crypto exchanges that you can use I don't personally I don't really trust binance but uh yeah you can just google what's a good crypto exchange to use and use that thank you all for coming I gotta run until next time make sure to take care of yourself assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all