The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-17-2024 🌟

• Rakaan Kayali

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🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-17-2024 🌟

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro
  • Markets Await Fed Meeting
  • Tesla's 111% Rally: Outpacing Competitors
  • Bitcoin ETFs Surpass Gold ETFs
  • Why Solana Could Outperform Ethereum
  • Micron’s Earnings: Key Metrics to Watch
  • Is Tesla Overvalued or Still a Buy?
  • Could Bitcoin Become a Reserve Asset?
  • Closing Thoughts


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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Assalamu alaikum, everyone. I hope you're doing well. A bit of a pullback today as the market waits for the Fed's meeting tomorrow. Even though the market seems to have made up its mind regarding the outcome of the meeting, that outcome will still be very closely watched. and we will bring you our reaction to it uh dow jones nasdaq s p and russell were all uh down today the vix was up eight percent and typically the markets will move opposite to the vix or the market sphere index one stock that continues to defy all odds continues to defy anything that the market dictates is tesla and you can see that it is up today even after the monster run it has been on it is up uh three point six four percent close to four hundred and eighty dollars believe it or not folks uh everything else is basically down uh nvidia is down bitdeer is down iris is down pll is down What is up is up very modestly and certainly has not been on the type of run that Tesla has been on recently. And MicroStrategy is down as well, taking a breather from its own monster run. Bitcoin is at one hundred and six thousand, so took a bit of a breather from its from its own run. But the high for Bitcoin was one hundred and eight thousand. So really good. floating with a hundred and ten thousand mark I told you guys once we breach a hundred thousand a hundred and ten and a hundred and twenty will follow soon after it's not like going from sixty to seventy anymore at ten thousand increase in the price per Bitcoin is now a much smaller percentage. And you can expect sometimes for that to happen in a single day. Doge is just under forty cents and Solana is at two twenty four. We're going to talk about Solana today and some of the metrics that really make the case for it as a basically the leading L-one solution. Looking at what we mentioned and just kind of putting the run that Tesla has been in perspective, over the last three months, Tesla is up one hundred and eleven percent. And you can see that, you know, compared to. Basically, everything else on this chart has basically smoked everything. So while in the first half of the year, the story was how Tesla is lagging the Magnificent Seven, it quickly caught up with everyone and then exceeded it. So you can see Apple, Nvidia, Google, Meta, only a fraction of what Tesla has done in recent months. And I expect more of the same in twenty twenty five. That is outperformance of Tesla. It's not going to be a straight line up, but the general direction is up, inshallah. Now, if you look at the general state of crypto and assets under management, we see that last week, even after the monster week that we had before record setting we had basically the second largest weekly crypto asset inflow and what we're seeing here at the bottom is inflows into ethereum and other large cap cryptos like xrp now I mentioned once we hit a hundred thousand in Bitcoin That I thought a lot of investors were going to start thinking, hey, Bitcoin, I may have missed the run in Bitcoin. Let me look down the market cap list and see if I can find something that's smaller in market cap, put some money in it and maybe have profit. uh decent returns and I really think that explains why ethereum is getting the inflows that it is it makes no sense that it is but I think just by virtue of it being the second in size in terms of market cap amongst cryptos that's why a lot of I think novice investors people who don't know what they're doing are putting money into Ethereum. And the same with XRP. I really don't get why it has had the run that it has based on fundamentals. I think that it's more a matter of FOMO and market dynamics, including leverage and a short squeeze that's happening there. But I expect a pullback on that one. And Solana continues to be undervalued, and I'll tell you why in a second. As it relates to the Bitcoin ETFs, just to put the success of the Bitcoin ETFs into perspective, they have now, in their first eleven months after launching, have now exceeded the total assets under management for gold ETFs. And gold ETFs, mind you, have been around for more than twenty years. So in less than a year, Bitcoin ETFs now have more assets under management than gold ETFs have combined. And so this goes to show you that The thesis for Bitcoin being digital gold may play out a lot quicker than many people expect. It's quite remarkable what is happening here. Quite an interesting time to be alive, really. Now, speaking of Solana and some of the metrics associated with it. So this is from Syncracy Capital. So they make the case that Solana outpaces Ethereum across most meaningful metrics. So the only metric that it's not outpacing Ethereum is in total value lock, which the actual value of Ethereum has a lot to do with. So if you look at real economic value, so transaction fees, make up the majority of this. Solana generates more transaction fees now than Ethereum. Total application revenue, Solana generates more. Stablecoin volumes, I think that's less important. DEX volumes, less important. Active addresses, that's a very important one. It has a Ethereum does. But most importantly, we're talking about an asset here, valuing an asset. Really, the revenue that the asset generates is the most important metric. Any investor worth their salt will tell you that it's a lot of generating more revenue. It's generating more cash than Ethereum is. And yet it's trading at thirty three percent the value of Ethereum. So something has to give. I mean, yes, the markets can remain irrational for a long time, but eventually over the long term, the markets are a weighing machine. So I expect this thirty three percent difference to actually become zero and eventually for the markets to value Solana more than Ethereum. Ultimately, the markets have to make sense. They have to be a weighing machine. When you have two assets, one of them is generating more cash than the other. And cash is... is the play here, we're not talking about a scarcity play, then it makes sense for the asset generating more cash to be valued higher. And so eventually I think this will happen. Micron has been in the news recently. It's one of the stocks that we have on our watch list and it will be reporting earnings, I believe, tomorrow. And looking at its financials, I'll give you my take on their earnings when they're reported, inshallah. But the reason why Micron has not been one of our highest conviction plays and hasn't made it to one of our portfolios yet is the fact that their margins remain kind of tough. As I always like to say, there are easy ways to make money and hard ways to make money. And you can tell if something is an easy way or a hard way typically by looking at the margins. And it also tells you how defensible the business is. Typically, businesses that aren't really defensible have very slim margins. And these are businesses that tend to skew towards being commodity-like. So if you look at their gross margin, it has improved this year compared to last year a considerable bit. If you look at the quarterly results here, So in their latest quarter, a fifty seven percent gross margins, which is decent, although it really depends on how much you end up with. But when you look at the net income and the margin there, you're talking about less than five percent in terms of net margin, net income margin, less than five percent. So that doesn't give me a lot. I understand that the semiconductor business is a highly cyclical one, one where you have periods where inventories are piling up and then periods where They're being drawn down. And so this is a very cyclical business. But at five percent or below net income margins for a mature company, that's just one where I say there's probably easier ways to make money out there. And so I'll be watching the margin number four micron very closely when it comes out tomorrow. And I'll let you know what I think about it. All right, so with that, let's take some questions. By the way, if you enjoy these lives, do leave a like and become a PIF member if you haven't already. uh to what extent tariffs will affect the stock market in twenty twenty five and can it trigger a crash I think that's a good question I I think that you know trump will be more level-headed than his rhetoric perhaps uh with regards to tariffs I think that trump will put you know front and center the performance of the market when he's reflecting on how his administration is doing. And so to the extent the market reacts negatively to tariffs or news of tariffs, I think this will act as sort of a pretext a cause for Trump to rethink his policies. So I don't necessarily lose sleep about Trump's policy with regards to tariffs and their effect on the markets, because I know that Trump will be very aware of this and probably adjust his policies accordingly. Thanks, Zuhair. I appreciate it. Yeah, do leave a like if you enjoy these lives. And sorry about my voice. We're still recovering. Ms. Nas says, Assalamualaikum. Waalaikumussalam. Hope everyone's having a great Tuesday. Any comments on the reports of previous OpenAI employee whistleblower being found dead? I mean, that's quite remarkable. And Yeah, if you think there's no sort of funny business involved in that, then, you know, I have a bridge to sell you, as they say. But yeah, increasingly, as I get older, what I used to consider conspiracy theories are now like very plausible scenarios. Oluogbek, I believe this is your first comment. So nice to have you. Great to be part of the PIF team. It's great to have you. Do you think now is a good opportunity? Well, with any biotech company, I think that you have to have a very long term horizon because these things take a long time to develop. um to materialize so I would keep that in mind and um yeah I think you know following my trades is probably a good idea um now financial advice though my my goals are not yours you know they should be all Musa says, I hope you're feeling better. Alhamdulillah, I am. Thank you, Musa. Can you clarify whether Zakat must be paid on stocks and cryptocurrency? Well, for cryptocurrency, I think the answer is a lot more straightforward, especially if you're dealing with a commodity cryptocurrency like Bitcoin or Dogecoin or any meme coin early. Then, yeah, Zakat needs to be paid on that. For stocks, I would check out my video that I made on it. It's pretty thorough, I think. Yeah, so Salam Rashad, nice to see you. Do you think claiming profits in twenty twenty five will be better since Trump promised lower taxes? Yeah, that's a it's a good point. I think that probably we'll get some sort of relief in terms of taxes. This is one of the big things that he campaigned on. So this may affect. capital gains and short-term gains even so yeah perhaps certainly better than the insane proposal that was being floated around by the opposing party about taxes on unrealized gains so thank god that's not something we need to think about so lamar can have you looked into the malaysian semiconductor sector well if you have a few names then do let us know we'd love to hear them Yeah, I will. Nice to see you, Hamid. Mariam said, that is, I'll take a look at LFMD and congratulations on joining our community. Mariam says, is Micron a buy ahead of earnings? Well, I think I answered that. will I come back to syria I mean yeah I definitely want to visit I'll definitely I think you know looking forward I'll probably have you know one foot here and one foot in syria that is one foot in the united states uh but yeah I mean syria is obviously holds a you know, a prominent place in my heart. So I would love to see it. I'd love to see it in the state that it's in right now, which is free. I've never experienced Syria as a free country. So I'm very much looking forward to that. think there will be an altcoin season but and perhaps we're already in one but it's not going to be as broad based as it was in previous cycles it's going to be very selective with regards to which altcoins do well so if you're not really selective about it then you stand to lose a lot of money because the rally is going to be a lot more narrow than it was in previous cycles And there's a lot more opportunities to lose money in this cycle than there has been in previous cycles. So unless you're very discerning and perhaps you have an edge in your investing, I wouldn't really venture out of the majors into some of these smaller cap ones because they're a quick way to lose money if you don't know what you're doing. Hey, nice to see you, Brother Khan. May peace be upon you. Do you think crypto needs to be reconsidered given Bitcoin limited supply and increasing demand? So I think that perhaps you're referring to like, should we even bother with the rest of crypto? Yes. And one of the news items that I found really interesting was two AI agents actually were interacting with one another and they actually One of them actually made a request to the other. The other fulfilled that request. And then a payment was made by two separate AI agents. And so I foresee this being the first step in. basically an industry of AI agents that do work on behalf of real people. And it makes sense why a lot of that activity could happen on blockchain. So I really think AI agents is one area where blockchain technology could prove very useful. And it's a good area to look for opportunities, I think, in crypto. Yeah, I do think that there will be a pullback in Tesla in the beginning of January. I could be wrong. This is just my forecasting and only Allah knows the future. But I do think that start of the year, there'll probably be a pullback. I do think also that there's a lot of shenanigans going on behind the scenes regarding Tesla. So a lot of Tesla holders think that they're smart and they're selling covered calls. And I think that a lot of market makers are not as innocent as some people peg them to be. And perhaps they are driving up the price in order to make a profit by wiping out those covered calls. And so that might be one of the reasons why we're seeing the The uptake that we are seeing in a Tesla stock, that being said, I don't think, you know, on a long-term basis, this is a company that is overvalued. And so, you know, if I didn't have a position at all, my approach would be to dollar cost average here. But in terms of sort of sniping opportunities, I think that we'll probably get a pullback. What could happen if Bitcoin is not accepted by the US as a reserve asset? Well, I think Bitcoin will still be Bitcoin. I keep in mind this has only been proposed as an idea for a few months, but it is looking like Bitcoin is being considered by not just the United States, but other sovereign nations. as a reserve asset. And for good reason. I even saw a headline today that Europe was considering Bitcoin as a reserve asset. And so even for whatever reason, and I think the probabilities are more likely than not that Bitcoin becomes a US reserve asset, especially if you look at the appointments that Donald Trump has made to his new cabinet, they appear to be very pro crypto. And so it's more likely than not, I think that Bitcoin does become a reserve asset for the United States. But even if it weren't, hypothetically, there are still so many other catalysts and sources of new bids for the asset that it's gonna do just fine. And eventually it will be a US reserve asset, I believe, as other sovereign states add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. And other sovereign states lose trust in the US dollar because of all of the debt that the US is under. So I'm not concerned at all. I think it will be a very big catalyst for Bitcoin. And perhaps a bigger catalyst than the ETFs themselves, just on the scale of the sheer demand that it generates for the asset. But it not happening will not be a catastrophic for the asset in any regard. All right, so with that being said, if you enjoyed the live, do leave a like and become a PIF member if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.