As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. We had another red day today, not as bad as yesterday, but we certainly pulled back from the small bounce that we got pre-market. The Dow Jones, on the other hand, an index that was on a ten day losing streak, actually snapped its losing streak with ending in the green of point zero four. if you can call that in the green. But the rest of the indices were down. The NASDAQ was down half a percentage point. The S&P was down .-. And the Russell was down .-. The VIX was also down, which is a good thing. So the VIX is the volatility index or the fear index in the market so that was down a bit from yesterday yesterday was the biggest single day jump in the vix in history with more than seventy seven percent rise in the vix index and the market suffered accordingly Tesla was actually pretty flat today compared to yesterday, so closed at four hundred and thirty six dollars. I chalked that up as a win. I mean, considering only a few months ago it was two hundred and video was up. Bitcoin miners had another down day today. And Bitcoin is currently at ninety seven thousand four hundred. Doge is at thirty one cents. We were at forty cents basically forty eight hours ago. And Sol is now at one ninety four. Solana that is. So a lot of these, a lot of assets took a shellacking, took a major hit after our boy J.P., decided he wanted to share his thoughts about interest rates for the next year. And to me, this doesn't seem like something I would, you know, take to the bank. That is his sentiment about the markets, his sentiment about interest rates. The Fed's sentiment about interest rates have all been consistently wrong and off. So previously they were expecting four interest rate cuts in twenty twenty five. Now they're expecting two. Who knows what ends up happening? What I do know for sure is that the future is not known and that I'd rather be trade based on data and actual fundamentals than what Jerome Powell thinks about the future. Now, tomorrow we will get a pretty important number. And I think this has the... potential to either confirm the market sentiment that is currently bearish or actually break momentum. And that is core PCE. So the inflation number will come out. And if the inflation is cooler than expected, then I think you're going to see the market react very positively to that and perhaps break the momentum that we have right now. On the other hand, if it's hotter than expected, then expect a negative reaction from the market. I really don't know which way it's going to go. But I do find it interesting that something like the yield on the tenure is now at four point five percent and it hasn't really adjusted based on the interest rates. or the changes in interest rates that the Fed has implemented. So the Fed's changes in interest rates affect the short-term borrowing. That's what they price. That's what they have control over. But the long-term yield, the market yield on U.S. Treasury securities, This is determined by supply and demand. And the less demand there is for these treasury secretaries, the higher their interest rate. Because you have to incentivize people to buy it. And what I think this chart is telling me and it's telling investors is that long term investors really don't have faith that inflation is going to be under control longer term. And therefore, they're demanding in order to lock up their money or be engaged with a treasury security that expires in ten years, they're demanding a rate, four point five percent, that they think is going to is going to help them beat inflation. So even though the Fed is lowering interest rates, the long term yield on the Treasury bonds that are issued by the government are not following suit. They're not falling as the Fed cuts interest rates. And that means investors are not budging on what they expect the the inflation rate over time is going to be. And this chart is basically telling me, or it's reaffirming our thesis for things like Bitcoin. Because if our thesis is correct, that fiat is, you know, eventually it's going to zero. And we're entering into a period of higher inflation and then hyperinflation, perhaps austerity, and then either a crash or a reboot of the system. If this is correct, then the demand for assets like Bitcoin in these next few years is going to be super, super high. And so we're already seeing this. We're already seeing how the assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs have already exceeded the assets under management for gold ETFs. And therefore, comments like the Fed, what Jerome Powell made yesterday about, hey, we may not be able to cut interest rates as many times as we previously indicated because we're still afraid of inflation. Comments like that should reinforce our thoughts about Bitcoin. That is a good store of value, a good place to go to protect your money from inflation. And You know, other entities, this is just one anecdote, and there's hundreds now, companies, countries, and states are all looking to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This is just one anecdote of Ohio now. adding itself to the list of states like Pennsylvania, like Texas, that are considering adding Bitcoin to their state's balance sheets. So today I was thinking about, you know, what is happening in the markets and Jerome Powell's comments yesterday about him not being sure about, he didn't say it in as many words, but basically what he communicated was that he wasn't sure that inflation was under control. These comments should reinforce our thoughts on Bitcoin. We have exposure to Bitcoin. We have exposure to Bitcoin derivatives, not literal derivatives, but leveraged plays on Bitcoin, if you will, like the Bitcoin miners in our portfolio. So if anything, I think that this should be a very, you know, for long term holders for Bitcoin. Now, this should just increase their conviction in the asset. That is the comments of the Fed chair yesterday. All right. Now, as it relates to the Bitcoin strategic reserve, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did say that we're not allowed to own Bitcoin. And I think the market may have reacted in part with regards to the sell-off in Bitcoin to the Fed's comments in this regard. But I don't think, first of all, I think that this can change if, you know, legislation is passed that changes it. I understand that the Fed is private, but it's private-ish. But also, it doesn't have to be the Fed that is holding the Bitcoin for the U.S. government. It could be the Treasury. So just because the Fed chair said that yesterday, this does not mean that the Bitcoin strategic reserve is off. I think it's very much on and it probably will happen. I think it's more likely than not that it does happen. Now, just so I'm not saying anything that's completely crazy, I do like to look at what other smart people are saying. And for that, let's take a listen, if you don't mind, to the interview that CNBC did with Sorry, with Tom Lee. He, granted, is a perma bull. So he's always, whenever you check in on him, he's always bullish. But he has been right more often than not. And so we'll check in on what he has to say about this particular dip. The Fed will be on pause for the time being and could even hike again if inflation reignites. Joining us for more is Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research and a CNBC contributor. And Jeff Kilburg is founder and CEO of KKM Financial, his contributor as well. Tom, we'll start with you. I take it you think this is a buying opportunity. This is another buying opportunity in our view. Twenty twenty four has proven to be a year where the market's been strong and it has eluded many opportunities for sustained weakness. I know yesterday's pullback was really painful, but to us, I think the fundamental supporting stocks are intact and I think it's a good opportunity for investors here. A good opportunity for investors. Jeff, I take it that you feel. To put some color on that. regarding the fundamentals for the underpinnings of these indexes being intact. If you look at a company like Tesla and our forecast that the first dollar of Robotaxi revenue could come in at twenty twenty five and what that means for cash flows for that business and what that means for the valuation of the company as a result. Has Jerome Powell's musings about interest rate predictions in twenty twenty five changed any of that? Is it in any way relevant to it? I don't think it is. So as I mentioned yesterday's comments by Jerome Powell, I do not represent anything that has fundamentally changed about the market. Nothing has changed. We predicted a twenty five basis point cut. The market was expecting it. And that's what happened. Other than that, it was just comments made by some guy that it's a bank that shouldn't exist in the first place. Differently putting it too strong. Well, I don't disagree with Tom on the fundamental side of it. Just off the top, I typically discount any financial analysis done by someone wearing a red suit. I don't expect this attire unless I'm buying a pretzel at a circus. But I think if you look at where we're at, the interest rates, what's on the horizon from taxes, tariffs and deficits, I really have to be considerate of what happened yesterday. It was the second largest move in the VIX we have seen. And historically speaking, Kelly, Tom is right. A month after that spike in the VIX, you see the S&P five hundred higher. However, I don't think we can lean on history here due to the fact that we've seen stretched valuations in the top research and the CNBC contributor. Sorry about that. but what I wanted to say is um you should always lean on history one of the most dangerous sayings in investing is this time is different. History doesn't necessarily repeat, but it often rhymes. And to discount history and say, Oh, well, actually, we can't really lean on history this time around. Let's, you know, let's come up with something different, because this time is different, typically leads you in the wrong direction, I believe. Well, I don't disagree with Tom on the fundamental side of it, but I think if you look at where we're at, the interest rates, what's on the horizon from taxes, tariffs, and deficits, I really have to be considerate of what happened yesterday. It was the second largest move in the VIX we have seen. And also, as it relates to taxes, tariffs and deficits, none of these have been enacted. We don't know what's going to happen. There's a lot of talk about tariffs. There's a lot of talk about reducing taxes, which would actually be very bullish for the economy and for markets and would make earnings stronger, make cash flow stronger, make valuations higher. But none of this has happened yet. And if you know anything about the US government's workings, I mean, it's tough to get much done. So, you know, I have I would not, you know, act on something unless it was very close to actually being passed and implemented. And historically speaking, Kelly, Tom is right. A month after that spike in the VIX, you see the S&P five hundred higher. However, I don't think we can lean on history here due to the fact that we've seen stretch valuations in the top ten names of the S&P five hundred. We've also seen just a straight line up. If you look in the last two years, back to back years of above twenty five percent. We've become conditioned that the market is going to continue to move higher, thanks by and large to the Fed dovishness and their seven trillion dollar balance sheet. So I'm looking. I know Tom wants to back up the truck here. I have the truck running, but I'm not ready to back it up yet. I want to see this more process reset valuations. I think that's going to be the next couple of months, possibly the first quarter, because we've become. I would agree with the sentiment that even with the price declines that we've seen in the last twenty four hours, we have not reached back the truck up prices for most assets yet. I mean, we were so high that it's going to take more a more decline, I think, for us to be at a point where, you know, backing up the truck, so to speak, really going in heavy with a position is appropriate. Come to condition, Kelly, to markets repricing in a day. I have to go back to my third year career and understand that we will see reset valuations more of a quarter or two, not just a day or two. You know, Tom, this has been a bit of a slide for the for the Dow to put it mildly. We By the way, I don't think it's going to take a quarter or two for us to be on a bullish path again, but I don't think it will be a day or two either. So maybe it takes, I think to process this, it might take a week, but something along those lines. And obviously tomorrow's numbers will have a big impact on that. We had ten down days in a row. You say you saw signs of capitulation yesterday as it was a ninety percent down day. I did, Tyler. You know, as context, the market has been bleeding lower. If you look at internals for the last ten days, yesterday looks capitulatory because not only do we have a ninety percent down day, but the VIX, the spot VIX exploded by seventy five percent. There's only four times in history where it's risen in a day. So yesterday was the fifth time in its history. Of those four times, the market recovered all of its losses within a week, three out of the four times. The fourth time, it took a month. So I think what you had was people panicking to get out of what they thought was a momentum trade that's ending because we're so close to year end. But here's the interesting thing. the forward VIX futures curve barely moved. So it was almost as if people were seeking protection through the VIX yesterday. What tells you, Jeff, that more valuation That's very important here and I think supports my initial intuition that this might take, you know, unless we get a surprise in economic data or some other surprise, this might take a week to process by the market. And keep in mind, a lot of this processing is not necessarily emotional. it is often very, very much the hard truth of leverage. And, you know, when you get declines like what we got, and the market was expecting, you know, higher highs yesterday, because almost ninety percent of the time when you get an interest rate cut, you get a higher market on that day. And so A lot of people, I think, were caught off sides with their leverage positions and the market went the opposite way and they were forced to sell. And so a lot of what is happening in terms of price action is leverage being flushed out the system. Resetting is to come. I think due to the fact we only had one down day, Ty, typically when you see prices reset or revalue, you have consecutive down days. And those consecutive down days bring along margin calls. And you saw Interactive Broker's head talk about his concern of margin being used on the MAG-VII. So when I look at a day like today where you're seeing passive indexes buoy the overall three major indices, NVIDIA, Facebook, These names are coming back because you're seeing people deploy cash in a passive index. So I do get concerned about that short-term volatility, but I'm going to embrace this volatility over the next month or two because I don't think history is going to line up. This is not going to be the same way. We've seen a straight-up move ever since last November, and especially since November fifth after the election results. So I do have concerns short-term, but I am cautiously optimistic at twenty twenty-five. But there's going to be more volatility. This was like a depth charge that went underneath the water. There will be ripple effects. Tom, let's talk about the small caps for a minute because they have these kind of moments where they look really promising. They go on a tear and then it just stalls out. And a lot of investors are feeling frustrated and wonder if it's worth sticking around. Yeah, I mean, I'd say this is why you always take profits. And this is why we've remained disciplined with regards to taking profits. Yes, there may be more meat left on the bone. Yes, you may have very high conviction in a particular position. And I don't think that one necessarily needs to always be looking to take profits. But just from a psychological perspective, I think it does help when you take just enough profits so that you're good if your position continues to go up and you're happy that you took profits if it goes down again. Investors are tired of having the rug pull on small caps. Yesterday's an example. Unfortunately, when markets get nervous and they risk off, and of course, buyers disappear, Stocks that aren't as liquid get hit harder. That's why the Russell not only has been under pressure for a couple of weeks, but really got hit yesterday. But do we think anything has undermined what makes small caps attractive the next five years? It's still in place. They've underperformed the last ten years by the second largest magnitude in the last hundred twenty five years, except for nineteen ninety eight. Not only are they derated, but now we have a roadmap of deregulation, possible mergers, a time when financials, which is a huge weight in small caps, look more promising. And things like biotech, which is a huge weight, also look more promising with deal activity. So I actually think this is, again, another chance to buy a dip. All right. So I think that, you know, to be fair, I think there were decent points made on both sides of this debate. But I do still skew towards being bullish in these times, I would caution against taking advice from people who are commenters on YouTube, who I can tell, are, are leveraged. And they actually will tell you that they're levered in a big way because when you're in debt and when you're using margin to make trades, then you're kind of desperate for the reality that you want, the future that you want to actually have. you know, be true and, and there to be merit for wanting it. And so having a clear mind and objective analysis of reality, I think, is supported tremendously by not using margin, not using leverage. As halal conscious investors, we have that advantage when things like yesterday and today happen we can look at it with you know calm and cool demeanor and be very calculating looking at the data waiting for the right opportunity to pounce and hopefully eliminate as much bias in our analysis and our assessments as possible. All right, guys, if you don't mind, I'm just going to give my voice a rest today, and I won't be going over the comments, although I really do thank all of you for leaving the comments. So alaykum salam to you. All of you do leave a like if you enjoyed the live. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.