The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-24-2024 🌟
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🌟 The Best Market Recap: 12-24-2024 🌟
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro and Market Rally Overview
- Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P Performance
- Bitcoin Recovers to $98K
- Tesla and Small Caps Surge
- MicroStrategy’s Bold Bitcoin Strategy
- Insights on Bitcoin Stability and Institutional Adoption
- Syrian Administration Seeks Compensation
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
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Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. We got a really nice rally in the markets today, especially as it relates to our biggest positions in our portfolios. And this is nice because tomorrow the markets are closed. So we get some time to think about the gains that we got and hopefully build on them the day after. The Dow Jones was up point nine one percent. The Nasdaq was up one point three seven percent. S&P up one point one percent. The Russell is up point eight nine percent. Now, I do believe that the Russell will have a heck of a year in twenty twenty five. And that is because so the Russell representing small to mid cap stocks. And that is because the interest rates are small. set to fall even further. I understand we're not going to get four as per JP's latest comments, but the direction is still downward for interest rates and the incoming administration does seem very business friendly and therefore I do foresee some rollback in regulation that allows for some M&A activity that typically really benefits smaller sized companies. The dollar index was up point zero five percent and the VIX is down yet again, fourteen percent. We're all the way back down to fourteen. We got this really healthy green candle today for BTC. Our high today was right under one hundred thousand. We're now at ninety eight thousand seven eighteen. So we basically recovered much of the loss that we experienced in the past week after we hit our high for Bitcoin of one hundred and eight thousand. Dogecoin also recovered a lot of what it lost in recent days. So I always love that animation. We're back at thirty three cents and Solana is back knocking on the door of two hundred dollars. Bitcoin miners did extremely well. And at the top of the list, Alhamdulillah, one of our main positions, Bitdeer, continues to outperform in a big way. Look at stocks generally. Everything was green today. And Tesla had another monster day today to add to the gains that it has experienced. So we're back at four hundred and sixty dollars for Tesla. I mentioned that I thought we we may be at four hundred in January. It's looking like we may be at five hundred in January at the rate things are going now. MicroStrategy continues to build its position in Bitcoin as if they don't have enough Bitcoin already. So, Saylor is proposing to shareholders, this hasn't been agreed to yet, but proposing to issue ten billion shares, new shares. And this is something I... I've never witnessed before, considering the current number of outstanding shares is three hundred million. So he's basically proposing a more than thirty X number of outstanding shares. And I guess the idea is, oh, well, you know, if a little bit is good, then a lot is even better. And so this strategy has been working for them, issuing shares, using it to buy Bitcoin, and then the market assigns a premium. to the shares of MicroStrategy above the net value of the Bitcoin that it holds. But, you know, I look at this and, you know, my spidey senses start to tingle. Not only for the obvious reason, which is that, you know, if you issue ten billion shares at today's valuation for a MicroStrategy stock, then you end up with a market cap for MicroStrategy that is close to three trillion, which is about one trillion more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin itself. So there's gonna be a drop in the share price for MicroStrategy if something like this were to happen in a quick manner. Now, obviously the counter argument to this would be that, yes at today's bitcoin prices this may be correct but something like this would cause a very sharp increase in the price of bitcoin and therefore bitcoin's market cap would increase and microstrategy shares would do you know just fine You know, I recall what we learned in college when I studied finance, which is that there is no such thing as a free lunch in the market. And it does seem like Saylor is, you know, is experiencing a free lunch with regards to the strategy that he is implementing in terms of, you know, issuing shares and buying Bitcoin. I think that something's going to break here. I don't really think that this is sustainable indefinitely, especially as more and more players start to copy this strategy. My spidey senses are telling me that something is going to give here. It may not be in the price of Bitcoin necessarily, but something else with regards to this strategy is just going to stop working as well. But we'll see. For now, it does seem like it is working. Now, if you look at Bitcoin's cap table and how it has basically the distribution of Bitcoin and how it has evolved over time. If you look at December, twenty, twenty three versus December, twenty, twenty four, for example, and this from CryptoQuant, by the way. What is good for Bitcoin is that it seems like parties with deeper and deeper pockets are getting more and more interested in Bitcoin, holding more and more of it. And therefore, there should be more stability and a greater source of a constant bid for Bitcoin moving forward. So exchanges, if you use them as sort of a proxy for retail, used to be close to fifty percent and now they're closer to a third. Miners have basically maintained their position. What has increased are the ETFs and funds and how much they hold in Bitcoin. That's to be expected. But also governments have increased their holdings. MicroStrategy is obviously a buyer on steroids, always buying. And now private companies are getting in on it. Public companies are getting in on it. And so you're having more and more sophisticated investors holding on to Bitcoin. And this is good for the asset. And it's good for its ability to. convince newcomers to give it a try. Looking at the MVRV Z-score, which basically measures the amount of profit that traders are sitting on or investors are sitting on, with regards to Bitcoin and previous highs or cycle highs have corresponded with Z scores that are close to seven. We are now less than three on the MVRV Z score after the pullback that we experienced in Bitcoin. So this is actually reassuring to me at least with regards to where we are in the cycle itself. And it tells me that, inshallah, there is more to go here. Now, in unrelated news... Syria's new administration plans to seek three hundred billion in compensation from Iran through international courts. And I just thought that was excellent because the Iranian government definitely owes Syrians for the devastation that they've caused Syria. But I also think that this same move should be done with Russia. So Syria's new administration should be asking Russia for compensation as well. I don't care if it takes decades for them to pay, they should eventually pay. So with that being said, Let's go to questions. By the way, going to have some cleaning of house for our portfolios in the last two days, inshallah, of trading for this year. So look out for that. And I also have two to three picks that I'm really excited about for our PIF portfolios that we will be adding, but I'll likely add them first weeks of January. uh hopefully we get a dip at that time and we get more advantageous pricing so if you'd like to follow these uh follow our portfolios and be notified when we make our new buys then do become a pif member the link to do so is in the description rashad nice to see you I had high hopes that btc will continue to rally I'm a bit disappointed hope we are not running out of fuel I think the MVRV Z-score suggests that, inshallah, there's more to come, certainly as it relates to the Bitcoin strategic reserve for the United States. And this is a massive catalyst. And right now, I think it's more likely than not that something like this gets approved in the first hundred days. So that should be very good for Bitcoin. Let's not forget. where we were and where we are right now. So when in doubt, zoom out. If you look at Bitcoin and where we were in January, we were at basically half of where we are right now. So January, of uh twenty twenty four we were at forty thousand and now we're at ninety eight thousand so I would say uh that's not a bad appreciation I would say you know alhamdulillah I'll take that return any day of the week are you going to share with us that surprise you mentioned yesterday well um yes inshallah um with regards to the pics um we will uh share those in january inshallah No, no membership coupons, I'm sorry. Are my positions in meme coins long or short term investments? They are short term and I expect that I will be out of them in twenty twenty five. Assalamu alaikum brother Akan. Alhamdulillah, your recommendation for a bit here has really paid off. Jazakallah khair. Walaikum. Dr. Khan, that's awesome to hear. Do we have a live tomorrow? No, I'm not planning to do a live. There's other exciting things that I'm working on that I will be focused on, inshallah. Do you think Doge is a short-term or long-term investment? Should one hold Doge for five years, for example? It's tough to say. These things change a lot. But right now, I... I'm bullish on this token, at least for the first half of twenty twenty five. Salma says, what's your take on EU banning USDT? Well, I saw an image recently about like the things that the United States excels in and the things that China excels in and the things that they're competing for. with each other about. And then below that, you had the EU, which excelled at nothing but regulation. So this is sort of you know unfortunately expected for the eu right now which basically there's like two productive members in the eu you have the uk and germany the rest of the countries are basically welfare states that have no work and don't do anything don't produce anything except for regulation Thanks a lot for the update. I did talk about PLL yesterday. I mean, this is basically just a wait for recovery in lithium prices. I mean, I don't think we need to complicate things for ourselves at all. Just wait for recovery in lithium prices. Who knows when that comes? But I do think it's coming considering current prices don't support supply expansion. And in fact, some operations are closing, whereas demand is increasing. Do you have your crypto and a wallet or exchange? I will say the ideal setup for your wallet is to have basically three wallets so you have your hardware wallet and then you have your first hot wallet and then you have your second hot wallet so your second hot wallet is the one that interfaces with exchanges and then the first hot wallet is the one that interfaces with your cold wallet And never the wallet that interfaces with exchanges should interact with your cold wallet because there's that wallet in the middle. So that's the, I think, ideal setup for your wallets if you're looking to have a setup. Follow our buy below prices brother for Doge. You can find them on our watch list. I believe you are a member. Abdul says, I just want to thank you for your great work. Through this PIF membership, my finances improved a lot, and I'll soon be able to get married, inshallah. Well, that is amazing. And if you do get married, inshallah, I hope you get married to a pious woman who makes your life much, much better. And, you know, a few blessings. in this world can improve someone's life than having a pious partner to share their experiences with. So may Allah make that easy for you and definitely keep me updated. I'd love to hear when you do get married, inshallah. All right, guys, if you enjoyed this live, do leave a like. It's been an amazing year, you guys. I'm so happy with the results that we've had, alhamdulillah, and with our community growth and with you guys sticking with us through thick and thin. It's been really amazing. So yeah, inshallah, twenty twenty five is even better. Become a PIF member if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.