assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well today is monday december thirtieth and we didn't exactly get the santa claus rally that many people were expecting and we got a uh red we got red days um to end the year uh we still have one more year uh one more day to go But it isn't looking like we're getting much of a rally before year end. You can see by the map here that pretty much everything is down except for a small pocket here of green, which is oil and gas. And then we have NVIDIA up a whopping point three five percent. But in the green, nonetheless, better than all the rest of the positions that we're seeing here. Now, when in doubt, you should zoom out. Let's put things in context. The S&P for the year is up close to twenty five percent. And that's not anything to scoff at. That's not too shabby, especially considering we had a strong year in twenty twenty three. Again, many people are saying we can't repeat in twenty twenty five. To them, I say we don't have to repeat in order to do well, inshallah. The fact of the matter is at any point in time, something is going up and it's our job to figure out where those promising pockets in the market are and be positioned accordingly. VIX was up nine percent today. And I should say that speaking of the VIX and market sentiment, market nervousness, volatility, one potential catalyst we could get in twenty twenty five, which would be really good for not just market sentiment, but also for inflation. would be a tempering in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. So the new administration does bring with it some prospects of a cooling down in that conflict, which should be Very good for markets globally. We should also see some liquidity and stimulatory steps coming out from China. And it's very likely, I think, that the Fed is wrong about what they signaled in their last meeting, which is two rate cuts instead of four. It's very likely that they do more than that in this upcoming year. years so I remain bullish generally for twenty twenty five um yeah we may not get twenty five percent return on the s p but we'll get very good returns on many other companies inshallah that are in uh promising uh promising spaces and um that will I think outperform in a big way, inshallah. Now, speaking of promising companies, Tesla, it's still above four hundred. I did say that I thought we'd be in the four hundreds in January. It looks like that will pan out. Of course, if we manage to hold the four hundreds for the next trading day, that is. Bitcoin miners pulled back today, and that's to be expected considering Bitcoin has pulled back considerably. Now, if you are an investor in micro strategy, you live by the sword, you die by the sword. So at one point, this company, this stock was at four hundred and eighty almost. And now it's at two ninety six, less than three hundred after our trading. So, yeah, take profits when you're in a volatile stock like MicroStrategy. Things don't last forever. It's important to take profits and never go broke doing that. Bitcoin is at ninety two thousand five hundred again here. I think it's important to zoom out and see where we were. And if you look at the year to date movement on Bitcoin's price, we're up more than one hundred percent. So that's not too shabby, even after the pullback that we've experienced. For Dogecoin, we're up to one hundred and forty percent, even better. For Solana, we're up eighty seven percent. So despite the pullbacks that we have experienced, I'm sorry, for Solana year to date, we're up seventy three percent. So despite the pullbacks, I mean, it still has been a very good year. Now, despite that, this is actually quite surprising. The retail traders lagged the S&P by one of the biggest margins I've seen. So in twenty twenty four, the average retail trader had a return of nine point eight percent compared to the twenty five percent for the S&P, which brings up conveniently the issue of PIF membership, because for us, we did quite better than that our rate of return year to date for our biggest portfolio the growth portfolio was a hundred and twenty percent our starting value this year was twenty one thousand ending value was seventy two thousand so if you're not a pif member and you want to do well in twenty twenty five I actually can't guarantee that but if you want to increase your odds inshallah then consider becoming a PIF member. Link to do so is in the description. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. So just a disclaimer there. Many think I say is not financial advice. Be sure to do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. I always forget that disclaimer, but today I remembered it. Now, moving on, as it relates to Bitcoin, some of the one of the reasons or I think, you know, it's kind of a chicken and egg thing, which one is following the other. But we are seeing outflows in the last. Basically, five of the last six trading days, we saw outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs. Obviously, there's going to be some profit taking. And I suspect that in January, this might accelerate. I would not panic if we got a bigger pullback in January as people realize some of the profits that they gained in. Twenty twenty four, which they may have been holding back on realizing for tax purposes. Now, if that happens, I think it is a buy the dip opportunity. And inshallah, we will be doing exactly that. Now, zooming out again with regards to where we are in the cycle for Bitcoin. I really like to look at the MVRVZ score. And that's that this orange line right here. And right now we're less than three, which is impressive. historically low for bull markets and historically we've seen bull markets peak closer to seven so I think that you know maybe if we get to five or six I would start you know looking for the exits just to make sure that I am exiting before the top But at below three, I feel comfortable that, inshallah, there is more runway here for this bull market. Now, if you look at now, there's been a lot of projections for twenty twenty five price targets for Bitcoin and. I've mentioned that I thought we'd get above two hundred thousand in twenty twenty five. And if you look at the stock to income model, it is showing that for twenty twenty five, if we go to December, so basically one year from now, end of December, the projected price for Bitcoin is above three hundred. Now, the lower band here is one hundred and sixty five thousand. The upper band is six hundred fifty. I don't think we're going to get close to there, but lower band here being one sixty five. And considering the relative accuracy of this model historically, I think that's That's a pretty reasonable target to have. Something between, I think, one sixty five and three hundred is where we'll end up for Bitcoin. Obviously, there are a lot of variables here. If the proposed Bitcoin reserve is established for the United States, Then I think, you know, above one sixty five is almost a given at that point. But and in fact, I think above two hundred is a more likely than not scenario in that case. But we'll see. There's obviously, you know, the risk of black swan events. But as I mentioned, I remain optimistic for the year ahead. Now, in terms of equities, and we kind of saw that in the initial map that was read across the board for almost everything, we did see a record weekly inflows into equities, and then it was followed by a record weekly outflows for equities. And this is kind of a... A good reminder that oftentimes the worst times in the market follow the best times. And also oftentimes the best times in the market follow the worst times. So oftentimes the biggest percentage gains in the market happen after the largest drawdowns in the market. So something to keep in mind. And in terms of where the money was coming out from and where it was going into, the ETFs that did the best in terms of equities were the large cap and broad market ETFs. So that kind of signals people going to more safer options in equities. And the ETFs that did the worst were the mid cap and small cap ETFs, which signals people going out of the more risky place in equities. And I think this corresponds with the Fed's comments and the nervousness that it caused with regards to rate cuts and the economy. Now, this is just an anecdote for how at any one point, you know, something's going up. Today, a little company called Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, and that's not the name I would have chosen, but okay. But this company makes electric cars, which I don't know if you can think of another company that may be a competition. to this company but this company now after going up seventy eight percent today not too shabby has a market cap of a hundred and forty two million and get this the revenue that this company had in its most recent quarter was a whopping nine thousand dollars um operating expense one point one two million so you know, I can't exactly say I see the vision here for investors, but cash and short-term investments, they do have some cash. So they have seven million and total assets. They have four hundred forty nine million. Now, what that can what a what of those assets, which of those assets or how much of them can be actually converted into cash easily or anyone would be interested in buying, who knows. But it does say four hundred forty nine million here. Total liability is two hundred ninety two million. So their equity is one hundred fifty six million. So they're trading at close to book value. So in that respect, it's It's not a crazy valuation that the company is supporting, but I don't like to look at book value at all. I think that's a terrible way to value companies. Much better is to look at the cash flow. And right now, there is no cash from operations. In fact, if you look at the last quarter, burned twenty two million cash from operations. So their operations cost them twenty two point seven million dollars in cash. What's going on here? Well, Faraday Futures skyrocketed with model review on tap for next week. So they're going to reveal a model. And I guess the market liked it to the tune of adding to the value of the company. It's not something I would do. But so it soared today on reports that Faraday Future FX prototype car will be unveiled at CES, in Las Vegas on January fifth through seventh. The company is also expected to provide a strategy update. In addition, The electric vehicle company announced that Entrepreneur Low Cans will take delivery of the first FF-Ninety-One-Two-Point-O Futurist Alliance EV in twenty twenty five. This company is really not a fan of short names. Every name they have is a sentence. During a delivery ceremony with executives, Hans was noted to have business interests spanning real estate, car rental, oil, pharmaceutical, and film production with operations in China, Canada, and Diego. Okay, great. Well, this is something that I'm definitely not putting money behind anytime soon. Not to say that they will necessarily fail, but what I can say is that electric vehicles, making electric vehicles, has proven to be a hard business to be in. The margins are super slim. You're not really... have no shot at earning positive income unless you reach you know substantial volumes they're gonna burn cash for a long period of time but they are also the subject of very vigorous speculation from investors so some days you'll get uh days like today where you're up you know eighty percent uh these are days where I would hit the sell button for sure. If it was me, not financial advice, be sure to do your own due diligence. But if you look at one of the possible reasons why this stock may have been up as much as it is today, is that it's basically one of every four Faraday stocks or shares is shorted, one of every four. So if you get a small bump, it's going to become a big bump and then a bigger and bigger and bigger bump because shorts have to cover their positions. And this is why we can benefit from shorts because they end up exaggerating the upside, that's when I think people should consider selling. And they also exaggerate on the downside. And that's when I think people should consider buying for the right names. So with that being said, let's take some questions very quickly. Dr. Boss, nice to see you. Is this January two, three week pullback you mentioned coming a little earlier before the start of the new year? I think it's very possible that we have front run some of that because You know, a lot of people are expecting it in January. So they say to themselves, hey, why should I wait around for that to happen? Let me just, you know, take some profits now. And I think that so I think that, yes, we may have front run a bit of the dip in January. Salam, brother. Has January always been down month and you think this year might be different? It's never always been a down month. And in fact, I think that typically the market does the opposite of what people expect because of that dynamic that I just mentioned, which is people tend to try to front run future expectations and therefore, you know, change the future. So I do think that we will get a pullback in January. I think that makes sense. statistically we do get pullbacks associated with tax loss harvesting but it's not a guarantee that it happens obviously so you know we can we can be sure that we don't know the future that's what we can be sure of and we can't really be sure of much else Salem says, do you think this pullback in miners is a good time to add more? I would hold off on adding at this particular time. I do think that Bitcoin could take a bit of a stronger dip. This is just my two cents. But I would hold back for now. Not financial advice. I'm just telling you what I would do. Dr. Shoa says, I have been with PIF for two plus years and I can attest to the PIF portfolio growth performance. Jazakallah khair to you and the PIF team. It is so nice of you to say that, Dr. Shoa. And honestly, it's been an honor to know you and to have you as a member. So thank you for being a member. Zuhair says, Assalamualaikum. Waalaikumsalam, Zuhair. Uluq Bek says, Salaam. I'm really excited for a twenty twenty five emerging growth. Me too. I am super excited about that. I think there are a lot of opportunities. Salaam Hamdi says, have you considered at some point creating an ETF with PIF investments? I have. And while I won't go necessarily the ETF route, I do have some plans for the future, inshallah. We can really enjoyed being a member not sure this. uh for upgrades yeah let's uh you can send me a message on discord I'll walk you through it inshallah would you say stocks are a form of gambling no I would not say stocks are a form of gambling uh people get this confused so gambling does not necessarily relate to speculation uh gambling relates to zero-sum games that don't produce any value uh with regards to stocks you're just buying and selling an asset so it's not a zero-sum game there's actually a transfer so with buying and selling It is possible for both parties to come out better off because one party needs the buyer, for example, benefits from what they bought more than what they parted with. Otherwise, they would not have parted with what they did. And the other party, is more happy with what they received than having what they parted with. Otherwise, they would not have parted with it. So both parties with trade are benefiting because there's an exchange there. Whereas with zero-sum games, let's say poker, even though it involves a lot of skill, and oftentimes I think maybe the chances are very much in favor of a certain move, It is still haram, it's still gambling, because it's zero-sum. Whatever anyone makes is necessarily someone else's loss. So I hope that clears that up. Also, I don't know... Yeah, so I would say the Discord is the best place, Brother Bakhtoun. Uh... Assalamu alaikum wa alaikum salam Jazakallah khair for the update and calming us down when the market is red. Do you think Tesla earning on Wednesday will make the stock price go higher as they are likely to meet expectations? Well, I do think that Tesla's earnings have a good chance of exceeding expectations. And I do think that there's a good chance that it acts as a catalyst for the stock. And it would be really great, would be excellent, perfect, if we get a dip in Tesla prior to the earnings. Because if we do get a substantial dip, then I will be a buyer prior to the earnings, inshallah. Dr. MVG, assalamu alaikum, brother. Any thoughts and prayers? Thoughts and prayers for IS Energy. uh that's funny um I think it'll be fine uh obviously the this is why we take profits right so um I you know this is a very volatile asset it's uh to be expected that we get pullbacks uh right now the direction that bitcoin is going it seems like there may be some additional downside here um sorry to say but it's it's possible I don't know but it's possible there's additional downside here so I don't want you to be you know devastated as if there is uh but I do think that you know zooming out my price target for bitcoin remains above two hundred thousand for this year and I do think with is energy there's a good chance that there's some you know contract agreement done with the hyperscaler in the next six months that should act as a catalyst as well so Some days you just want to cover your eyes, don't look at your portfolio if it makes you feel better. Or if you have the conviction, maybe use those days to buy more. All right, so last question I'll take. So ultimately, would you say stocks are haram or halal? Well, I think you're buying a part of a company. Buying parts of a company, whether they're publicly traded or privately traded, is Clearly, yes, there's risk involved in it, just like there's risk in starting your own company. There's risk involved in basically any business venture that you do. So what I don't like to say, I like to say I'm comfortable with it. And yeah, no, no company is perfect. But at the same time, I would say that, you know, I think it's you know if you think about it keeping your purchasing power in cash actually considering that this cash is fiat that's issued as debt and supporting a you know interest-based system you know I I think you could make an a stronger argument that perhaps dealing with that, if there are alternatives, would be something that perhaps we should be uncomfortable with. But I'm not saying that, but you could make an argument. And so, yeah, I'm comfortable with stocks. I think companies that, pieces of them are called shares, then we refer to them as stocks. In the UK, they call them stocks and shares. Pieces of companies, these companies produce the most amount of value in our lives in terms of material value. And they are responsible for the most amount of ease that we find in our life and the most amount of value and the most amount of goods and services that we enjoy and the things that make our life easier. So these are fundamentally, I think, good good things that it's important for us to support. And buying pieces of these productive assets is a way to support them and be a part of this value creation process. So I think fundamentally, it is a good thing. Investing is a good thing fundamentally. Now, obviously, it differs. There are some companies that you don't want to support, of course. But generally speaking, investing is a very good thing. It's a very noble thing, especially if you have the right intention. You're saying, you know, I want to invest in companies that have the biggest positive impact. This is actually, inshallah, it's a good deed that you take with you to your afterlife. So that's my thinking on that topic. And on that topic, it's a good thing to review our intentions here when we're investing, that we want to have a positive impact to the investments that we make. And oh, by the way, when you start your investing process with asking the question, Okay, which companies are going to have the biggest positive impact and that guides your investment decisions? That's actually a great way to find great investments that are actually going to do well, that are actually going to have a really high return. So, you know, dunya and akhra, I think it's a good approach. All right, guys. thank you for tuning in become a pif member if you haven't already as I showed you guys we did very well alhamdulillah in and I'm hoping god willing we'll do very good in as well link to become a pif members in the description leave a lot I was wondering when I was going to start to cough. I managed to get through most of this live without coughing. But leave a like if you enjoyed the live. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.