As-salamu alaykum, everyone. Today will be the last live of this year. Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for all who tuned in throughout the year. And inshallah, that twenty twenty five is an even better year for us. uh looking at the year that was the indices did quite well the dow jones or the boomer index as I like to call it uh was up uh twelve point eight percent uh the nasdaq was up twenty seven percent in twenty twenty four the s p was up twenty four percent and a lot of our positions uh did very well uh mentioned that I thought we'd go into the new year with tesla in the four hundreds and indeed it was tesla is at four or three and uh we did have generally a better day today in the market than we had yesterday which is not really saying much everything was ready yesterday but there was some recovery in the market uh let's hope that you know january turns out to be Not too bad. Now, in terms of news items to look forward to in the next week, well, on Thursday, Tesla is set to report its deliveries at nine a.m. The company is set to report Q four deliveries on Thursday. Analysts surveyed are expecting a record total of five hundred and twelve deliveries. although that would not be enough to bring the full year total up to Tesla's forecast. In its third quarter earnings report, Tesla said that despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, it anticipated deliveries of slightly more than last year's, one point eight one million. So I do think that we will get My personal expectation is that we'll get a positive number from Tesla on Thursday. And who knows, that may set the tone for the stock for the coming few days. And, you know, I do think that generally speaking, there will be some profit taking in January that was postponed for tax reasons. But we should get a strong recovery, I think, near the Tesla earnings report either before or after it. But we'll see. That's obviously contingent on the content of that earnings report. But I do think that it will be a positive earnings report as well for the company. That being said, what I know for sure is that the future is unknowable ahead of time. So keep that in mind. Dan Ives, who is a prominent commenter on all things tech and tech investing, mentioned that he thinks tech stocks will be up twenty five percent in twenty twenty five as the street digests a less regulatory environment under Trump, stronger initiatives and a Goldilocks Foundation for big tech in twenty twenty five. Now, as it relates to crypto, We did have a very strong year for crypto as well. If we look at Bitcoin, it was up a hundred and eleven percent in twenty twenty four. Doge was up two hundred and fifty percent and Solana was up eighty five percent. I'm going to share with you guys the projections of a analyst that I have some respect for later in this slide. But before I do that, I'd like to share with you guys the movement, the activity that we're seeing in the options market. So for those who are unfamiliar, puts are people betting. When people buy puts, they're betting that the price is going to go down. When people buy calls, they're betting that the price is going to go up. And if we look at the volume of options on Bitcoin and we look at February twenty eighth, for example, so the options that expire on February twenty eighth, we can see an outsized volume of puts with a strike price of seventy five thousand. This is the most popular strike price for February, which means that a lot of market participants are expecting Bitcoin to fall to seventy five thousand in the next two months. And there's, in fact, one hundred and seventy seven million dollars bet on this just in that one strike price. We also have a lot of volume around seventy thousand. with a hundred and fifty million bet on that strike price. So that kind of tells you maybe the market is pessimistic. But if you look further into the future and let's say September of twenty twenty five, you can see that The calls have the most volume and the call strike price that has the most volume amongst calls is the call with the strike price at three hundred thousand. And there is around seventy one million dollars bet on that strike price. So the market is telling you that in the short term it is expecting a pullback. But if you extend your outlook beyond the first few months of twenty twenty five, then they're expecting at least the options markets is suggesting this. We're expecting a strong reversal and all time highs and a possible above three hundred thousand price for Bitcoin by the end of the year. Now, I think Three hundred thousand is sort of a tail outcome. It's not in the middle of the normal distribution. I think in the middle of the normal distribution for possibilities in terms of price of Bitcoin, I would say around two hundred thousand. That's the most probable, I think. And if we look at other popular strike prices for these call options, two hundred thousand is another very popular strike price for September of twenty twenty five, as well as one hundred and fifty thousand. But the most popular strike price again is three hundred thousand, which is, I think, quite remarkable. Now, let's go to the video that I wanted to show you guys. So that you can hear from a source other than myself. And we can get additional perspective. Well, thank God the host didn't see the options activity where people are betting on three hundred thousand. by September. It's not that crazy. I mean, it's about a hundred percent increase from where we are. And Bitcoin has done crazier things in the past. Solana is one thousand dollar target price. And then for Ether, we predict in terms of ETH to BTC ratio. So recovering back to BTC, our target is two hundred ten thousand. So Solana is actually, I mean, they're predicting a five X on Solana. I think that might be a bit generous. Excuse me? Two hundred and ten thousand? Yes, yes. Well, it's not that crazy. I mean, it's about a hundred percent increase from where we are. And, you know, Bitcoin has done crazier things in the past. So LANA is one thousand dollar target price. And then for Ether, we predict in terms of ETH to BTC ratio. So recovering back to zero point zero five from current zero point zero three. OK. Yeah. So then the key question is how? Why? Well, so there are a few things going on. So we arrive at our target price using what's called MVRV ratio. MV stands for... Someone's been watching the channel. market value uh rv stands for the realized value I need to check if peter chung is a pif member by the way if you're not a pif member make sure to become one uh link to do so is in the description realized value is uh is the value of a bitcoin blockchain based on the most recent one chain transaction price so it's sort of similar to uh price to book multiples in equity okay and then we calculate the uh We estimate the realized value for Bitcoin for next year and apply three and a half times the multiples based on historical range. And then for Solana, our benchmark is Ethereum network's peak valuation during the last bull cycle three years ago, which was around five hundred billion dollars in market cap. And that's about a thousand dollars on a Solana basis. And then that's justified in our view because, you know, given the current level of institutional interest and then developer activity and also favorable supply outlook. Yeah, they're coming on this. Our sense is that Bitcoin and other crypto is... It's interesting here. He mentions institutional interest, supply outlook, developer activity. But that's not a good way to value an asset. It's interesting that when valuing crypto assets, cash flow is almost never mentioned. So yeah, this is one of the reasons that I have very extreme skepticism about most cryptocurrencies is that analysts that otherwise say very logical things tend to suspend logic when they're dealing with crypto assets for some reason. The value of an asset is the present value of future cash flows, or it's a function of the scarcity, which he sort of alludes to with the supply outlook. But Solana is not a scarcity play. Solana is a cash flow play. And so any estimation for the value of Solana has to be based on a projection of future cash flows. And without that in the conversation, I really can't take the valuations that seriously. Also very much a liquidity beneficiary. So this is kind of reminding me, to be honest, crypto is reminding me a lot of the dot com bubble where analysts started to invent new metrics for valuing companies other than cash flow. And it ended up crashing in a very big way. And that's why I say proceed in crypto with extreme caution because there is generalized, I guess, suspension of logic that is going on amongst commenters. My sense there is that you've also got a fairly positive outlook in terms of liquidity overall. That's correct. Yeah. So Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are hypersensitive to liquidity conditions. And generally speaking, despite the recent hawkish guidance from the Fed in early December, I mean, the general direction is still loosening. That's what's implied in the market. And so liquidity condition, we think... This is very true. I've said this many times. Even if we get two cuts in twenty twenty five, which, by the way, I think there will be a surprise to the upside when it is revealed that we'll get more than two cuts in twenty twenty five. But even if we get two cuts in twenty twenty five, we're still on pace to get the same number of total cuts. It's just going to take a longer period of time. will get better next year. But even if for whatever reasons, Fed decides to reverse their decision, we have another kind of liquidity kick coming in from China. Yes. And then China is actually, they account for a bigger, almost a twice larger portion of global liquidity than the U.S. I think people often overlook that. I mean, you know, the percentage that they account for of a global M-to-money supply is just staggering. It's close to, it's less than half, but I think it's about forty percent. Is that right? Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, we don't feel it because of this capital control in China. And most of the liquidity usually gets trapped within the border of China. But Bitcoin is a global asset. Yeah. And so I think that, as I've been saying on this channel, stimulus in China will have a very positive impact on cryptocurrencies and Despite a hawkish press conference at the last Fed meeting, the general direction for monetary policy is that of loosening. And that's why I remain bullish on the markets in twenty twenty five. And the last piece of news, kind of a random piece of news here. But it is, I think, an interesting take. You were better off investing with Madoff than in any of Chamath's SPACs. The last Madoff victim fund payout brings recovery to nearly ninety four percent of the Ponzi scheme losses. So ninety four percent of the losses were recovered. Can't say the same about Chamatha's SPACs, but he seems to do very well on his All In podcast. Seems to be living his life just fine. All right. With that being said, let's go to questions. Assalamu alaikum, Muhammad. Just a reminder, guys, make sure to ring in the new year as a PIF member. Only a few hours to do that, but start twenty twenty five. Right. Very excited about some of the smaller cap picks that we will be making, especially in the first few months of twenty twenty five. Do I agree that BTC could see. It's possible. I don't know. But certainly the options market. Is suggesting something around there. Is very possible. To be honest. If it goes down that much. I would be extremely happy. Because it wouldn't change my thesis. I still think it's going to. But I'll be able to. replicate some of the returns that we got with Bitcoin miners and Bitcoin itself and other assets if I'm able to buy at those low prices. So I wouldn't mind it at all. Yeah, that's kind of a semi whether Bitcoin is halal or not is not an interesting conversation, to be honest. People typically argue against it, don't know enough about it in order to make the conversation interesting. I don't really take my marching orders from CNBC. I think, you know, typically they tend to lean towards bearishness because I think that probably in terms of headlines, bearish headlines do better. And that's why, like, you'll see a lot of YouTubers with thumbnails, crash incoming, watch out, you know. I tend to take the opposite approach. But yeah, listen, twenty twenty five is the first year where Syrians will be free from Assad. So. I mean, that's a positive and there'll be ripple effects. From that positive event everywhere, I think. And so, yeah, I like to focus on the positive. And you may be saying, hey, Erkan, why are you mentioning this very random geopolitical news event? Well, because it has become clear to me that some people get very upset when I mentioned that Assad is gone because secretly there were, you know, hoping for him to stay. But they can't say that because they're embarrassed. So I like to remind them that Assad is gone. And I'm very happy about that. Salam Rashad, nice to see you. Numerous opinions about BTC and they all have some bullish outcome. The question is when. Yeah. I think that's pretty accurate. I think most people who are in the know are bullish about BTC. There's various opinions about when it will reach what price, but if you just buy and hold and ignore the noise, I think you'll be just fine. Palantir is probably in the running for the least comfortable stock in my view, so just ignore it. Yeah, there are a lot of companies that are posed to benefit from tariffs. And I would say probably, you know, lithium producers that are based in North America may benefit a lot. Hint, hint. I think it's possible Dogecoin gets to the dollar mark. But I think it would be on the tail end of outcome distributions. Assalamu alaikum, Brother Nabil. Yes, we're still avoiding microstrategy. No, I'm Muslim. I follow the Quran and the Sunnah. And so that's my mess up. So if you enjoyed this live, then leave a like. Become a PIF member if you aren't a PIF member already. And until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.