The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

😄 IQ Test for Investors 🧑‍🔬

Rakaan Kayali

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😄 IQ Test for Investors 🧑‍🔬

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro: Market Overview
  • Tesla’s 2024 Delivery Miss Analysis
  • Tesla’s Energy Business Milestone
  • Robinhood’s Dogecoin and Bitcoin Rewards
  • Bitcoin’s Price Outlook for 2025
  • Closing Thoughts 

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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum everyone. I hope you are doing well. The first trading day in the new year. Today is Thursday, January second, twenty twenty five. We had a mixed day today. There were some positions that did extremely well. Others like Tesla, we saw a pullback on. For reasons that are quite known, there was a miss today in their deliveries, but we'll talk about that miss and I'll tell you why I think it's kind of an IQ test for investors or at least a litmus test to figure out whether the investor in Tesla is just trying to ride the wave or they actually understand their longer term or the longer term fundamentals for that company. So in the details of what happened, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P were all in the red, but the Russell was in the green. There was a number of smaller cap and micro cap stocks that I have my eye on that have done really well. I'm kind of waiting for a pullback on those to back up the truck. I'm increasing the list of potential ten baggers there. For those of you who want to get access to our watch list, make sure to become a PIF member. Link to do so is in the description. Here's a map, in case you like maps better, showing the green and the reds from today. As you can see, Tesla, uncharacteristic of it, at least if you go off of the last three months for this stock, uncharacteristic for it to be in bright red. But every dog has its day, as they say. And video is up. Meta was up. We did get some positive movement here in utilities and positive movement in energy. And the details for Tesla's fourth quarter, twenty twenty four production deliveries and deployments. We got deliveries for Q four of twenty twenty four of four hundred and ninety five thousand, which is shy of the magic five hundred thousand delivery. uh vehicle mark and I'm going to tell you uh using um some uh really useful charts uh on x I'm going to tell you why I think it's kind of ridiculous the way the stock has responded so if you look at the you know outside of just vehicle deliveries the most profitable line of business for tesla is their energy business and tesla deployed an all-time high of eleven thousand megawatts of battery battery energy storage in q for up two hundred and close to two hundred and fifty percent year over year. So why is this very important? And it should have gotten more weight in investors mind than that five thousand vehicle delivery miss. Well, because the numbers support such a weighting, because if you look at the miss on vehicles and what that means for gross profit for the company, it means that the company missed out on around thirty one million in gross profit because it missed that five thousand vehicle delivery. Now, what it means that it increased its storage capacity by eleven gigawatt hours, which is around fifty percent more than the running average for the most recent four quarters. What that means for the gross profit for the company isn't added or five hundred and forty six million dollars in gross profit. So five hundred and forty six million in gross profit. That's the upside. The downside is the thirty one million from the vehicle delivery. So when you put things in context, actually, the report was quite good for gross profit. And oh, by the way, when you're analyzing companies, you don't care about number of vehicles delivered. You don't care about production. The only reason you care about these numbers is because they are a means to an end. And the end is the gross profit and the net income for the company. After all, we are in the future cash flow business where we're trying to predict future cash flows. What matters is what is the company producing in terms of cash flows and what we expect it to produce in the future. That's what matters to investors. Sometimes you could have lower delivery numbers, but a higher price tag on each vehicle delivered. The bottom line is the bottom line, which is net income. What has that done? And so when you see articles that are comparing BYD, for example, with Tesla, and they simply compare units sold or unit delivered with Tesla's units sold or unit delivered, That's the wrong comparison. What you really should be comparing is profitability because not all cars delivered are equal. They have different sizes, different weights, and most importantly, different price tags to them. Tesla's prices tend to be higher. than byd's prices and therefore the profitability of tesla as it relates to the profitability of byd is what you need to be looking at if you're just comparing their car businesses with one another if you're looking at tesla the company What you should be focused on as an investor, in my opinion, is the profitability of the company. And I think that this report suggests their profitability will break all records for the company. And so that's really what matters to me. And so the dip today, I thought, was an opportunity and I acted accordingly. All right. Now, if we want to put the deliveries in context, if you look at the deliveries for Q four of twenty twenty four, they were a record there. Yes, a little shy of five hundred thousand. But it's the highest delivery number in Tesla's history. So it's not like things were anything to scoff at, at least what was reported by Tesla. In some other news, Robinhood, one of the most popular brokerages in the United States, decided to deliver as a bonus, two point five million dollars worth of Doge to its users, which I'd like to think is an indication that Robinhood sees Doge as a very widely appealing cryptocurrency. And the other crypto that they decided to reward their current gold members with and current users with was Bitcoin. So I think that speaks a lot to the position of Doge that a brokerage as big as Robinhood decided that it was one of the two cryptocurrencies that it decided to gift its users. It speaks to, I think, the popularity of Doge, the acceptability, the affability, the familiarity that people have with Doge. So I thought that was a positive for the crypto. Now, speaking of Bitcoin, the probabilities for a strategic Bitcoin reserve as per PolyMarket in the first hundred days, mind you, this is not the absolute probability, but the probability in the first hundred days. is twenty four percent based on PolyMarket's prediction. And I think that that is really something to get excited about because there's a one in four chance that within a hundred days, basically a hundred days from now almost, or a hundred and twenty days, let's say, within a hundred and twenty days, something I think very monumental, a huge catalyst for a Bitcoin could actually transpire. If you look at the net unrealized profit and loss, which is very similar to the MVR VZ score in terms of what it tries to gauge, which is how much of unrealized profit is out there. Sorry. We are still in this yellow band. If you squint your eyes, you'll be able to see it. We are in this yellow band, which is not necessarily This green band, it's not the red band here, but it has dropped considerably with the drop in Bitcoin's price from its all time high to where it is right now, which I believe is close to ninety seven thousand. I do think that there is, at least if you look historically, this net unrealized profit and loss, this bright yellow line, perhaps there's some additional movement south that is in the cards here. But we're very close to, I think, where we can expect the market to turn bullish again. So I wouldn't be surprised if we got upward momentum from here, but I also wouldn't be surprised if we didn't. That being said, I don't think that the dip is going to be as severe as some are suggesting. So someone asked me the other day, do I agree with Tom Lee that it could go to sixty thousand? I think that's unlikely. that it goes to something like sixty thousand. I think maybe, you know, low eighties that, you know, maybe in the cards, but not substantially lower than that. There's so much more positives than negatives or potential negatives, at least on our radar for Bitcoin. I think top of the list is this competition that's going on between companies, between Bitcoin miners, between sovereign states now, between states within the country, so states in the United States, all trying to acquire, trying to set up their own little Bitcoin nest egg. I think that's going to be the theme of twenty twenty five and what's going to catalyze the price of this asset to what I think will be above two hundred thousand this year. All right, and then the final piece of news I wanted to leave with you guys was this view of the ten-year yield in China. So the thing with bonds is, so when you're looking at yield, the lower the yield, the more expensive the bond. The higher the yield, the cheaper the bond. So when yields start to shrink, that means there's more demand for bonds. Typically, there's more demand for bonds when people lose trust in other assets. There aren't any other really good assets for them to put their money in. So this is kind of telling us that level of investor confidence in the Chinese economy is low. We mentioned in the previous slide that we thought that Chinese stimulus was coming and that it was extremely important for the global economy. And so I think that this reflection of investor sentiment about the Chinese economy bodes well for the probabilities of a chinese stimulus in the near future which will be good for global assets like bitcoin so with that being said if you enjoyed the slide do leave a like become a pif member if you aren't already um nice to see you uh hamed uh I will take a look at LFMD. As you can imagine, I do get a lot of requests for reviews. But I'm taking a look at it right now. But I'll take a look at it, and I'll let you guys know in our Discord, inshallah, Hamid. I'll let you know. All right, guys. Not many questions today. I hope you're enjoying this new year. Leave a like, as I said. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.