The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

🤑 Did We Find Infinite Money?

• Rakaan Kayali

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🤑 Did We Find Infinite Money?

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro: Market Recap
  • Bitcoin Hits $100K: Key Drivers
  • Tesla’s Rapid Recovery from Delivery Miss
  • Dollar Index Trends and Market Impacts
  • Crypto ETFs: What to Expect for Solana
  • Infinite Money Glitch? Corporate Bitcoin Strategies
  • Closing Thoughts

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ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum. I hope you are doing well. A mixed day today in the markets. We did get a slight pullback in the Dow Jones, but who really cares about that index? The NASDAQ was up one percent. The S&P was up point five percent. and the Russell was basically flat. Something really great that we've gotten since the start of twenty twenty five is a fall in the dollar index, the DXY. And this measures the strength of the dollar against other major currencies. Typically, when we have, sorry, typically when we have a fall in an index, that's a bad thing, but for the dollar index is actually a good thing. It means that a lot of the income that companies make overseas is able to translate to more dollars when it's reported in dollar terms. It also makes a lot of US companies cheaper for foreign investors. So typically a dollar index that is falling is good for risk assets in the United States. The VIX was down point five percent. That's kind of surprising considering all the headlines that we're going to go over in this live. By the way, if you enjoy this live, do leave a like. And if you're not following our portfolios, not following our investments, consider doing so by becoming API member. Link to do so is in the description. Tesla has rebounded quite quickly from the dip that we got after it reported a miss on deliveries in the first trading day of the year. So it dipped to all the way to three seventy five and then has recovered close today at four eleven. We did get a pullback in some Bitcoin miners on the top of the list is Bitdeer, which seems to often have a mind of its own. Oftentimes it's running when other miners aren't doing so well. And sometimes, like today, it's pulling back when other miners aren't. doing just fine for example today it was down ten percent whereas iris energy for example uh was up three percent uh bit digital was up five percent to be honest I was quite pleased to see a pullback in Bitdeer because I would like to add more to that position. But not yet. The price isn't juicy enough to warrant adding just yet, at least as per my assessment. Bitcoin smashed through one hundred thousand today and was actually a lot higher. Actually, it went close to one hundred and three thousand. But now we're at one hundred and one thousand six hundred. What are you going to do? I'll take it. And Doge is at thirty eight cents again. So long as that to seventeen. Looking at the heat map for the market, we can see semiconductors today did fantastic. Micron energy was up eleven percent of the semiconductors and chip makers. Intel was the only red semiconductor. was the only red stock today, down three point one nine percent, which is very concerning when the entire sector is doing well and just one stock isn't. That's kind of concerning for the company. I'm sure Intel investors are scratching their head looking at that map. Now, looking at Bitcoin and historically how it's performed in Q one, we've already gotten a eight point seven six percent return in Bitcoin. The average for Bitcoin in Q one is fifty two percent. But don't look at the average. This is very skewed. So in two thousand thirteen, we had five hundred thirty nine percent. But that's very so that's really skewing the average. Something better to look at would be something like the median, which is eight point seven four percent for Q one. Now, I do think that we're going to do better than that in Q one of twenty twenty five. The reason for it is because, well, we've already done better than that. But the year following the halving year is the year that typically has the most gains for Bitcoin. And that's the year that we're in. So I am expecting a beat of the median for Bitcoin. But it's good to know, you know, ballpark where we should be. and for ethereum if you're still in ethereum may allah guide you um the q one returns so far has been ten point five five percent the median is exactly ten point five five percent so You've earned your money there. Going back to the dollar index, if we look at how the dollar performed, and I mentioned the bright spot of the market this year has been the dollar index falling. If you look how the market has performed versus two thousand sixteen, two thousand seventeen, which was. The first corresponded with the first administration for Donald Trump. We did see a dollar index that fell when he came into power. That's that blue line here. And so we do seem to be kind of following the same pattern. If we do follow the same pattern, that would be very good. for risk assets and suggest bullishness at least until February, if we're just looking at the dollar index. Now, there are other factors impacting the market. There's some nervousness about something called the HMPV virus, and cases are beginning to rise in India. Now, I'm not a doctor, but reading the what people are saying about the situation. The virus, this is very different than the COVID-Pandemic. The virus COVID-Pandemic was completely new in humans and arose from spillover from animals spread to pandemic levels because there was no prior exposure or protective immunity in the community. This is not the case with the HMPV virus. This is something that is familiar, and many people have already immunity to it. And as per the description, it's just flu-like symptoms typically affects the young and the old the most. In that respect, it's kind of like COVID, but it isn't that serious. Hopefully this ends up not being anything. In other news, Canada's prime minister, Justin Trudeau, announced the decision to step down and the market kind of liked that. The Canadian dollar liked that, actually appreciated when he announced it. So we'll see. And who knows, maybe Canada becomes the fifty first state of the United States and maybe Greenland becomes the fifty second state. Who knows? All I know is that the future under a Trump administration is not going to be boring. That I can guarantee. All right. So speaking of the infinite money glitch and have we found the source of infinite money? And it appears that, you know, some companies kind of think perhaps we have Metaplanet, a Japanese corporation, eyes upping its Bitcoin holdings, taking our page out of the MicroStrategy playbook. Metaplanet holds seventeen hundred bitcoins and wants to increase to ten thousand. Bitcoins. And so it is borrowing and adding like MicroStrategy has been doing. And Cooler Technology is doing the same. It invested twenty one million in Bitcoin. Total holdings now four hundred thirty Bitcoin, which is a very small drop in the bucket compared to its micro cap. So twenty one million versus a micro cap of close to eight hundred million. But the CEO mentioned that Their strategy is to allocate up to ninety percent of their surplus cash reserves into Bitcoin. My spidey senses are tingling. I understand that. I understand the argument for using Bitcoin as a reserve asset. but if something is too good to be true it is there is no infinite money glitch I think risk I think these companies are underestimating the risk that they're taking and this kind of leads me to believe that you know there may be a lot of volatility for bitcoin ahead so Oftentimes, when you see people taking risks, I think you should be very cautious. And so I would highly advise not overstretching yourself. and not getting too complacent, making sure that you have dry powder in case we get an opportunity in the market that's very tempting, a pullback in the market that makes things very discounted and not to FOMO into any positions. Now in other crypto news, Solana is set to experience some volatility as the new administration takes takes power on January, only five days later, there are four Solana ETF applications that will meet their first deadline. So the SEC will have to comment on those applications, either approve them or tell them, Hey, change something, or I want to, or ask additional questions and require clarifications. If a Solana ETF is approved, that should be good for Solana. It should be good for crypto generally. It should be good for Dogecoin, I will say, because I still don't know why a Dogecoin ETF is not being pushed. I think eventually it will be. But I think you'll see a lot of other tokens start pushing for their own ETFs if a Solana ETF is approved. If it's not approved, I don't think there'll necessarily be too much of a pullback on it. But there will be some volatility, I think it's expected, around that date regarding Solana and perhaps that will impact other cryptos as well. So that is all of the most important news from today. I'll take some questions very quickly. Should we be concerned about Elon's comments on the UK? Yeah, I do think these are cause for concern regarding the general environment in the West. And... Yeah, I think Elon embodies the personalities of a genius in business, but a moron in pretty much everywhere else. Like no one else can. So he embodies both personalities simultaneously. For us, we're invested in Tesla. We're not invested in Elon. And yeah, that's what I'll say about that. What are my thoughts on Trump's comments on Canada? I don't know if I want that many people with French origins to be in the same country as I am. Just kidding. Eunice says, assalamu alaikum, wa alaikum assalam. Dr. Boss says, assalamu alaikum, brother. Does Musk antics on Twitter pushing Islamic film narratives give you any pause or reason not to invest in companies he runs? How should we navigate as Muslims? I just said my opinion is that I'm invested in Tesla, not Musk. And I don't think our response to things should be... Like I look at Maslaht al-Muslimeen. That's what I look at. I think Maslaht al-Muslimeen is to be owners in this company called Tesla. That's what I care about. And I'm not going to shoot myself in the foot just to spite someone. I think he's very misguided. And I really don't care. I really don't care about him. I think it's... I think it actually speaks a lot to Islam that one of the smartest people who is an atheist has so much animosity towards Islam. I think that speaks to the fact that Islam is really the only religion left on earth and atheists, their hostility is towards Islam. You don't see them hostile towards Christianity or towards Hinduism or towards any other religion is because they don't really see them as legitimate threats, legitimate competition to their ideology. But they do see Islam as such, and that's why there's so much animosity towards it. And there will always be. And by the way, you don't see just this animosity from atheists. All religions have animosity towards Islam. And the reason is very, very simple. It's because if you imagine, you can very simply you can very simply conclude since all religions say different things and I'll consider atheism as a religion because it takes a leap of faith but if you consider all religions they're saying different things so only one can be right and everything else is false so one of the ways to figure out which one is right and which ones are false is to figure out which one is being singled out by all the others like ask yourself that question so there's one truth and everything else is false and so one of the hints as to which one is true and which ones are false is simply to ask yourself okay which one religion does it seem like all the other religions are against and that's the true religion and everything else is false So I think that, you know, and I see something that, you know, some of the comments that, you know, Ilan is making just further confirms that in my mind, like, oh, yeah, he's very hostile towards Muslims because he only sees Islam as a legitimate competition. The rest he doesn't really take seriously. Hello, Rakan. You mentioned that last year there could be a dip in January. Do you think it will happen? Well, I do think that some of the dip may have been front run in December, the last week or two of December. We saw that weakness and that may have front run a bit of the drop. I still think that we're probably going to come up on some volatility. That means some decline in in January. I still think that's the case. It may have been, you know, smoothened out a bit because of the pullback that we got at the end of December and also smoothened a bit by the dollar index, the dollar actually losing strength. But I still think that decline is, you know, there's a greater than fifty percent probability of that. But who knows? This is, you know, I'm asked and I don't like to sort of not give an answer. But, you know, short term movements in the market is very hard to actually predict. Could you please explain futures trading? I do have a video on futures. I encourage you to check it out, brother. Someone can bring their subscriber here. So brother, we did buy back Tesla at... last week when we got the dip if you're not a subscriber consider doing that um but if you if you I I'm hoping that you didn't sell everything we never sell everything we take profits which is just a percentage small percentage typically of our holdings And then we buy back on pullbacks. So if you sold everything, I would just dollar cost average back in and then never sell everything again. And then in the future, just try and snipe at opportunities. So Vittorio says, what should be a Muslim's duty if he deems a stock is overpriced? Can he invest in that? So I think we're like, I don't want to mix things together. I don't think that's necessarily like a halal and haram question. uh, you know, how you deal with, you know, assets. If you think they're overpriced, that's more of, you know, a business decision. I don't think there's necessarily a moral, um, um, yeah, moral implications, uh, to it. I think obviously if you think it's going up, buying it is a legitimate thing. If you think it's going to go down, selling it as a legitimate thing. So that's, you know, how I would deal with it. Uh, but, um, A longer term, I think if you're asking me what's the most profitable policy, the profitable policy is never to buy something if you think it's overpriced. That's the most profitable policy. And so over time, if you take the average result of that policy, that's going to yield the best result. So with that being said, if you enjoyed this live, do leave a like, become a PIF member if you aren't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.