As-salamu alaykum, folks. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, January eighth, and the S&P and indexes were in the green, actually, barely. I mean, they started off in the red, but barely closed in the green. But it feels like a red day somehow. At least for me, it feels like a red day. The US yield on ten year bonds so that The yield on US ten-year bonds is up, and that's really impacting the risk assets in a big way. Obviously, when yield goes up, the risk assets suffer. The dollar index continues to climb, and that also, we've talked about this, in previous lives, when the dollar index climbs, the dollar becomes more expensive. That's bad for risk assets. So you have yields climbing, you have the dollar index climbing. This is not good for risk assets. We have CPI coming out next week. That's really going to have a big impact on investor sentiment and expectations for rate cuts or lack thereof, which will impact asset prices in a big way. We have unemployment numbers coming out on Friday. By the way, tomorrow, in observance of the passing away of Jimmy Carter, tomorrow the markets are closed. So FYI, but Friday we'll have the unemployment numbers. If we get strong numbers there, maybe we have a reaction similar to what we had after the job openings number came out. So a lot of variables here, as I mentioned, a lot of volatility to be expected in January. Now I try to be, I try to make my life as simple as possible. When I get discounted prices on my highest conviction assets, I buy and that is assuming I think the general trend is upwards for assets. And when you look at the yield and what investors are demanding in order to hold us bonds, cash is trash. Investors are requiring a very high yield in order for them to be persuaded to hold US debt. So that means that if cash is trash, I don't want to be in cash. I want to be in assets. I want to be in the most productive assets. And so the general trend for these assets, I think is northward. And so in this environment, when I get opportunities to buy my highest conviction assets, I'm going to buy. I'm not going to go in one fell swoop. SPIF members know. But I'll nibble. I'll nibble on the way down. And on the way up, I'll take some profits. And so it's how I keep my life very easy, very simple. My investing strategy is not based on You know, a crystal ball. If you live by the crystal ball, you die choking on the shards of its broken glass. So I try not to live by a crystal ball. I play the cards that are dealt to me by the market. And I let the rest figure itself out. Tesla today, speaking of highest conviction assets, Tesla is up. Everything else is down, basically. Tesla is up point one five percent at three ninety four at ninety four. Now, it's not the fact that it's up that is encouraging error or advantageous. It's the fact that it's not down like everything else is. We got another red day on Bitdeer, another red day on Iris Energy. We got a really red day on a bunch of quantum stocks, and we'll talk about that in a second. Gold still steady at twenty six six and Bitcoin is at ninety five thousand again here. That doesn't seem like the end of the world to me. We're very close to one hundred thousand. Not bad. Doge is at thirty four cents and Solana is at one ninety seven. So. Speaking of the yields on us debt, this is the, basically we have a case we have, we're dealing with something that we very rarely see. And that is the fed is cutting rates and with the cuts, it impacts the near-term bonds, not the long-term bonds, the near-term bonds. That's what it affects. However, the tail end of the duration is not controlled by the Fed. It's controlled by the market. And so typically what happens is when the Fed starts cutting, the the rates for the for the longer duration bonds tends to go down. But what we've witnessed is that even after the Fed started cutting the in the current cycle, that's represented in green and this darker blue is represents the average in the past cycles. And what happened to the ten year yield? After the first Fed cut, this line in the middle denotes the Fed starting its cutting. And so green, the current cycle, we can see yields are going up. Whereas the average in past cycles is that the yield goes down for the ten year. So we have a situation where investors are just not convinced, even though the Fed is cutting rates. They are just not convinced with the wisdom of holding U.S. debt at lower rates. They're demanding that their yield be higher. be higher in order to hold us that, which means that they are expecting inflation in the purchasing power of the us dollar. That is the worth of the us dollar going down over time. That's what investors are saying. And they're probably right. They're probably right to demand these higher yields. And so what's going to happen? It's tough to say, but it is concerning that this is where we are, that investors have just lost confidence in a big way in the US dollar. And by the way, the US dollar is doing a lot better than most other fiat currency out there. We are in a period which I think will witness a, now I don't know how long this takes, but we are approaching a debt crisis. How this debt crisis unwinds, it's very hard to say. Now going back to the job openings number that set the markets in the sort of downward trend that it was on yesterday, the day before. The November jolts job openings were up to eight million, eight point zero nine eight million versus seven point seven four million, the estimate. Now to put this in context, if you zoom out here, this is where we are, that blue line. So, okay, we got a blip upwards. But if you look at the overall trend, which is downward here, there were a lot of blips upward during this downward trend. So I'm not necessarily sure the reaction of the market to the jobs openings number. Specifically that number, and I don't know what other economic numbers come out, but specifically that number, I'm not really sure that was justified. Because when you zoom out, I'm not sure that we can confidently say that the trend has been broken, the economy is on a good track. And that's kind of what it seems like the market was anticipating Jerome Powell to conclude. Now, in the midst of all of this, our job as investors is to figure out what are the best assets to put our money in to preserve our purchasing power, hopefully save ourselves and the financial futures of our families. And on this channel, we are bullish on Bitcoin. I mentioned that this year, my price target for Bitcoin is two hundred thousand. I think we can get there. And there's a lot of. indicators, a lot of bullish catalysts for us reaching that price. One of them is central banks, treasuries of different companies adopting Bitcoin, using Bitcoin and a race starting between these companies, countries to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible as fiat goes to zero. So on this topic, the Czech National Bank weighs Bitcoin for future reserve strategy. Now, the details of this, they're just thinking about, you know, buying very few number of Bitcoin. It still, you know, needs to pass a vote, you know, may or may not happen in the near future. But the fact that the national bank is actually, the government is actually thinking about this tells you how long or how far we've gone with the maturation of this asset. Another thing that we need to do as investors is capital preservation and avoiding the hype cycles that inevitably pop up every now and then. And quantum stocks, I think is a prime example of this. Today, Nvidia's Jensen Huang came out and basically popped the quantum stock bubble. And it was basically blood on the streets with regards to anything quantum computing. So you had Quantum Computing Inc. down fifty percent, Rigetti Computing down fifty percent, IonQ down close to fifty, D-Wave Quantum down close to fifty. Now, why I think this is a legitimate repricing is if you look at the numbers, they're kind of nuts. So if you look at Rigetti Computing, for example, market cap is two point four three billion. OK. Scroll down here, financials, the quarterly revenue, their last quarter, two point three eight million. So like, OK, if I have an In-N-Out burger store and I'm I have revenue of two point three eight million, by the way, I'm going to be profitable here. The net income is the company lost fourteen million. I'm not going to, I don't think I'm going to find a buyer willing to pay two point four three billion for my burger shop. You know, even though I have better margins than this company, Rigetti Computing does, but they were able to find public company investors that were willing to pay them that price. I get it. Investing is a forward looking exercise, you know. income is going to grow revenue is going to grow how much growth are you do you need in order to justify two point four three billion if currently your your revenue is two point three eight million I mean what's going on here um if you go to quantum computing inc uh market cap one point one nine billion revenue is a hundred k so basically like a mid-level employee at a you know major company has a higher has a higher yearly income than this company it's trading for one point one nine billion net margin negative net income negative five point six eight million I mean okay I get it growth is expected but how much growth are we talking about here to justify a hundred thousand in revenue in one quarter being sold at one point one nine billion. IonQ, same thing, six point five five billion. Wow. They must have like. Twelve million in revenue to justify that again here, net income, negative fifty two million. So, yeah, I have a business. That is big. in that is that has negative net income to the tune of fifty two million want to pay six point five five billion for it. I mean, this is what investors need to ask themselves. And apparently there's enough people willing to do that, so. The lesson here is don't get caught up in hype cycles. Don't invest in things that you don't understand. I will fully admit, I don't understand quantum computing. I'm not really sure what's the implications of it fully. And so I stayed away. But just looking at these valuations, I mean, you got to know better than to buy something like that. And I'm all for taking calculated risks. But remember, the number one job in investing is capital preservation. That means you want to sandbag your projections. You want to have a margin of safety always. If you're buying a company at six point five billion, a valuation of six point five billion, and that company is has a net income of negative fifty two million. You've left no margin of safety. You have to exceed the best of the best expectations in order to just grow into the valuation that you're currently at. So that doesn't seem like a good risk reward ratio. All right. Now, in terms of memes, and that's the most important thing when investing, This kind of represents the current sentiment around Bitcoin. We're at a hundred thousand, close to a hundred thousand. We went from, you know, a hundred and eight to ninety five thousand. People are losing faith. Bitcoin is a scam again. Don't be one of these people. Zoom out to understand what's going on. All right, now, I promised you guys that when Donald Trump became president, his administration may not be a lot of things, but they will for sure not be boring. And indeed, even before his administration has assumed power. They are anything but boring. So he wants to make Canada the fifty first state, maybe Greenland, the fifty second state. Panama Canal is now American property. And oh, by the way, a new wrinkle here. It's no longer the Gulf of Mexico, folks. It's the Gulf of America. And so Mexico's president, whoever she is, responded to Donald Trump and saying instead of America or the United States, it should be called Mexican America. So if you need a pick-me-up today, for whatever reason you're feeling down, January weather has you down, You're already not keeping up with your New Year's resolution. Just be... be happy that the incoming American administration is going to provide you with a lot of entertainment for years to come. So something to look forward to. All right. With that being said, but in all seriousness, I think that the names that I have the highest conviction in have not changed. And I think that we're going to have a great twenty twenty five in our PIF portfolios. Inshallah, I don't want to get the expectations too high, but I really do think that. And so these this the volatility that we're experiencing is par for the course. It's the price that you have to pay in order to earn the returns that eventually, inshallah, we will earn. So just understand that this is part of the game. All right, so Hamid Amiri asks about LFMD. I actually did take a look at them. I think that's something that needs to be answered, Hamid, is with regards to their moat and whether or not they have one. But the company has a lot of strong points. Perhaps we can continue this conversation in Discord. Salam, brother, do you think Bitcoin will get to €. Okay, hearing a lot of people say this. Well, I will tell you, nobody knows. people when things are going uh downwards people extrapolate from the current price and assume it's going to get to lower and lower prices when things are going upwards people extrapolate from current movement and assume it's going to you know higher and higher numbers the fact of the matter is no one really knows as I mentioned at the start of this live The job as an investor is to play the cards that they are dealt. If it goes to seventy five K, I think it's going to rebound and go a lot higher. So I'm going to play those cards and probably buy a lot more Bitcoin or Bitcoin derivatives. leverage plays on Bitcoin. If it doesn't, that's fine. If it keeps going up, I'm going to be taking profits. So don't worry about trying to predict what happens. Rather, make sure that you are playing the cards that you're dealt. And in order to do so, you have to sometimes have a tendency that is or actions that sometimes buck the emotions that you are feeling. So oftentimes, If there's fear in the market, you have to have the courage to pull the trigger on a buy. On the other hand, if there's a greed in the market, things are going up, you have to have the discipline to pull the trigger on taking profits. This is not easy. It's much easier said than done. Being part of a community like PIF hopefully helps you do that. So if you're not part of our community, become a PIF member. Link to do so is in the description. and like this live so other people see it and our community grows. That would be awesome. nice to see you dr boss when is it best to dca up into high conviction stock if you have a very low average cost basis um it's a good question for example with bitdeer or tesla stock so I like to buy on the way down almost regardless of my average cost, so long as I think that the price today is discounted compared to where I see the price going in the future. So I wouldn't go in in one fell swoop. I'm not trying to time the bottom exactly. I'm trying to play the cards I'm dealt. If it's discounted compared to where I think it's going, I'm going to buy a little. If it goes down more, I'm going to buy a little more and so on. Ahsan says, Assalamualaikum. JazakAllah. And thanks so much for coming online and calming PIF community down on these hard days. It's my pleasure, Ahsan. And making our conviction stronger. Would you invest in oil and gas? So, Ahsan, oil, gas, commodities in general, these are businesses that typically have low margins and their prices go downwards over time and so these are businesses that I don't like to be a part of I like to be a part of businesses that are adding very unique value that has very high margins and is defensible and not many people can do it oil and gas does not fit that criteria Given Trump's speech yesterday, okay. Oh, sorry. Arafat Mohammed says, Assalamu alaikum. Not sure I understand that question. Is it possible to make profit three percent daily in stock market? No, it's not possible because try and compound that over a year and see what you come up with. If it was possible, then someone else would have done it. But it isn't. You can do it one day and then you'll lose ten percent the next day. Maybe you're up the day after that. But the percentage of people that can day trade profitably is very small. The percentage of people that can make profit of three percent daily in the stock market is zero. Ahmed says, Salam brother, what is a good percentage of cash that needs to be in your wallet? Depends on your risk profile. I always think you should have some amount of dry powder to deploy in case we get a really strong dip. Like what we've experienced so far, it's not really a big dip, to be honest. I mean, yeah, maybe you nibble a bit, but it's not really a back to truck up situation. So I would definitely have some dry powder. Khaled says, Salam Erkan, can any other EV company go big in the long term that we should be looking at? The issue, Khaled, is why would I invest in an EV company considering how tough it is for EV companies to make any money? Basically, no EV companies are profitable except for, like, you can count them on the fingers of one hand. Globally, I'm talking. I mean, you have Tesla and BYD. And then who else? The margins are razor thin. And even Tesla, I wouldn't invest in Tesla if it wasn't for the other businesses. Robotaxi, humanoid robots, autonomy. These are high margin businesses. So the EV car making business is a terrible business to be in. So why would I even be looking for an EV company to invest in? The only reason I have an EV company in my portfolio is because of the other lines of businesses that are much higher margin that I think will be coming online. I do not use stop loss because I'm not a day trader and I'm not a gambler. And I'm not saying you have to be a gambler in order to use stop loss. But when I buy something, it's because I think This is a fundamentally sound asset to own. And so if it's available at discounted prices, so if there's a loss, I'm going to be buying more. I'm not going to be selling. If I liked it at ten, I like it even more at eight. I like it doubly as much at five. So, yeah, that's how I think about it. It's my pleasure, Ahsan. It's my pleasure, Ahmed. Don't forget to like the live. enjoy the rest of your day don't be worried just understand that allah controls everything and everything he allows to happen there is good in it you may not be able to see it but there is good in it and so um if you if you understand that point about the universe then you're never worried. Just do your duty. What can you do? What is under your control in terms of the actions that you can take? And then leave the rest to Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamu alaikum and peace be upon you all.