assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well today is friday january tenth and we did get what looks like a bloodbath in the market today the market was down seven hundred points but it didn't really feel that way at least for our pif portfolios it felt you know kind of fine If you look at Tesla, held its own basically flat. Bitdeer was flat. IOS Energy was up five percent. A lot of our positions basically weathered the storm quite nicely. For the market, we got basically the two things that I've been warning about, which is a stronger dollar, higher yields. We got both things. So the dollar is now near all time high in the dollar index in terms of how it trades versus major currencies. It's near the all time high for the last five years. So that is working against the risk assets. And also the treasury yield is also the ten year is also near an all time high. for the last five years. And that also is working against risk assets. We have the indices responding to these developments negatively. The Dow Jones, as I mentioned, down seven hundred points. Nasdaq was down close to two percent or actually one and a half percent. And so was the S&P. The Russell was down two point two percent. So why did this happen? Well, we got some economic reports today and U.S. payrolls. grew by two hundred fifty six thousand in December, while economists were expecting one hundred and fifty five thousand. Unemployment rate was projected to be four point two. It fell to four point one during the month. And as I mentioned, the yield on the ten year spiked in response. So this is good economic news. But the market reacted negatively to it because This means that the probability for a rate cut by the Fed is now even smaller. So less cash should be entering the market. Now, in terms of the probabilities for a March rate cut, they've fallen to twenty five percent. Basically, yesterday they were at forty one percent. So that explains today's market action. And if you look at the probability for a January rate cut, market is basically telling us it's a done deal. There will not be a rate cut in January. Having said this, there are some bright spots and data suggesting that we are maybe approaching a local bottom. So if you look at the short-term holders and the market value of Bitcoin versus the realized price or realized value, that is what the short-term holders paid for their Bitcoin, Currently, that price, so what the short-term holders paid for their Bitcoin, also called the realized price, it stands at eighty six thousand. So close to where we are right now. I mean, we're at ninety four thousand. So we are basically approaching in terms of the MVRV ratio we're approaching the average levels that they typically are at so we're not in greed territory we're not in bearish territory at least for short-term holders we're at an average territory and that's since going back to twenty twenty so that takes into account the entire cycle that is a peak through trough that being said considering we are at a the part of the cycle where things should be going up, I think we are basically a bit oversold here. Now, we could go a lot, a lot lower, this is true. And obviously, a lot is going to depend on the economic numbers that we get next week. So if you look at next week, there are two important economic numbers. So We do get the PPI on Tuesday. So that will give us insight into the prices that producers are paying. And we get the core inflation rate on Wednesday, January, so that's going to be a big mover in the market. The market is going to be waiting anxiously for that number. We'll also get the basically inflation rate. And this is going to inform the Fed's position regarding monetary policy moving forward, how many cuts we're going to get, how soon we get them. That being said, the fact remains that, you know, for short-term holders, the tourists, the price of Bitcoin right now versus Bitcoin what they bought their Bitcoin for doesn't really motivate selling just yet. Additionally, if we want to look at the bids and asks, so what people are waiting for, the prices that people are waiting for, for Bitcoin to either buy it or sell it, we're looking at Binance, Coinbase and Bitfinex. This is from Bitcoin Munger, by the way. You can see a cluster of bids between basically, eighty-eight thousand and ninety-one thousand. So that's what people are basically waiting to buy Bitcoin at. But above the current price in terms of selling pressure, You really don't have much selling pressure. You have some selling pressure at ninety six thousand, but then you have a sort of speed bump at one hundred and ten thousand. So, you know, assuming we don't get to eighty eight, eighty nine thousand for Bitcoin, we could be at one hundred and ten thousand pretty quickly if we get the right catalyst. That being said, I don't know which direction we're going to go in the near term. It's going to depend a lot on the inflation numbers that we get next week. But I mean, if you're... Because I heard some members were talking about being a hundred percent in cash. And I would say that's kind of a risky move because this thing could... you know, get away from you pretty quickly. So I would never make such a bold move going a hundred percent in cash, because as you can see here, you know, if we don't get to the the bid floor we may get to the ceiling here in terms of of selling pressure very quickly with very little resistance so something to keep in mind don't try to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller as they say another piece of positive news is that funding rates for perpetual swaps are now very, very low. Now, what does this mean? We don't deal with perpetual swaps. But basically, when funding rates are low or when they turn negative, that means that the shorts, people that are betting that Bitcoin is going to fall, are actually paying the longs in order to maintain their position. Typically, funding rates going negative has corresponded with local bottoms. Now, funding rates can remain negative for an extended period of time. And the correlation, like everything, is not perfect. But there is a correlation there between funding rates turning negative and us reaching a local bottom. And so I think that this is encouraging as well. In other words, if you were to pressure me to make a trade, either buying or selling, I would Much prefer to buy now than I would to sell. I would, I would much more readily be buying at this point than selling. Let me put it that way. And also when you look at some, uh, sentiment in the market and you know, what the market is pricing in, it does seem like things are moving towards being more and more pessimistic. which is good if you're trying to buy towards the bottom versus the top. So the probability for Trump creating a national Bitcoin reserve before January first, twenty twenty six has now fallen to forty six percent. Now, if you were to look previously, this probability and the direction of this probability has corresponded quite nicely, actually, with the price of Bitcoin itself. So you can see a spike in November, which corresponded with a spike in Bitcoin in November. And then a mellowing out in December, which is corresponded with the mellowing out and price action in Bitcoin in December and now a fall, which also corresponded with what we've seen in Bitcoin. I actually think the probability for this being passed is above fifty percent. So I think it's more likely than not that at least we get legislation in this direction before january first twenty twenty six so as this probability increases if we do get a an actual news item catalyst then that could reflect very positively on bitcoin and as I've said before I do think that a national bitcoin reserve for the united states the most consequential economic country on earth, would be bigger in terms of its impact on Bitcoin than the approvals of the ETFs themselves. And we've seen the positive impact that that has had. So with that being said, I think it's understandable if you're cautious. Obviously, January does have a have a history with having very wonky economic numbers that kind of throw the market off. So it's understandable if you're cautious. But I also see reasons for optimism in the market. And I definitely don't see reasons for panic. I definitely don't see that. So for what it's worth, there is your... Summary of today's price action in the markets. And with that, we'll take some questions. If you did enjoy this summary, do leave a like and become a PIF member so you can follow our portfolios. Nice to see you, Rashad. Media is hyping around the coming inflation. So I think the media is, you know, I would take the headlines with a grain of salt, understand that their objective is not necessarily to report the most accurate thing, but their objective is to get the most eyeballs. And so the media does lean towards sensationalism a lot. I think the inflation, maybe we don't get to two percent. Maybe we stay at close to three percent. But I don't necessarily think that that's the end of the world. And I don't think that the Fed is going to be motivated if we stay roughly at our current inflation levels to hike interest rates. And that's the most important thing. So, so long as the Fed is not going to hike interest rates, which I don't see as a serious probability now, then Focus will shift towards absent interest rate cuts. Focus will shift towards earnings for different companies. And I think that earnings for a lot of companies, especially those that are in areas of disruption, including AI, will be healthy. And certain equities will rally because of the strength of the underlying business, which is how things should be. So that's what I'm banking on for twenty twenty five. And inshallah, it pans out. Chad says, plan to be in cash a hundred percent in August. What a painful month in twenty twenty four. Yeah, I mean, it wasn't if you recall, it wasn't just twenty twenty four, but twenty twenty three as well. It was almost like the exact same scenario where, you know, you had a pullback mid-year and then a rally towards the end in the fourth quarter. So but I'm just saying like. you know, if you can sleep at night, okay, going a hundred percent cash and then power to you. But for me, that would be too much risk. I'd rather, you know, take profits on the way up. And then, you know, if a crash actually does transpire, I'll buy back, but I don't want to be in a situation where, you know, I'm on a hundred percent cash and, And then we have, you know, a positive black swan event and the market sort of gets away from me and all my positions get away from me. I just don't want to be in that situation. But to each his own. Brother Kim says, salam alaikum, alaikum salam. Have the California fires had any effects on the market today? I will say I was quite it's quite surprising to see, you know, what has happened in terms of like, how little control California was able to to have on the fires and, you know, keeping them in containment and should be a reminder for us that, you know, we are always at the mercy of Allah Subh'anaHu Wa Ta-A'la at any, at any point, anything in our life can change, uh, based on, you know, what he desires. So we need to, uh, make sure that we are, we, try to be as pious as possible and repent when we do something wrong and seek forgiveness because, you know, we tend to kind of get infatuated with ourselves and, and the technology that we are working on. And in reality, it's, it's completely inconsequential. And perhaps Allah gave the universe the size that it is right now in order to just remind us how, you know, insignificant the things that we work on are in relation to the bigger picture. And so, yeah, let's just use this. I hope, you know, for all the innocent people that have been impacted, I hope you know, they're able to get back on their feet as soon as possible. And, you know, for those who lost their homes, I mean, this must be a nightmare. So, you know, I wish, you know, for everyone who has been impacted to, you know, get the help that they need, inshallah. Ali Imam says, Salam Hakan, with all due respect, I think your assessment of HEMS is incorrect. Its valuation is way too cheap for its growth. Large margin of safety even with Amazon's threat. Okay, so buy it. I mean, it may be, it's possible that I'm wrong about HEMS. And And yeah, I mean, we made a good amount of money on it. And then we took profits. But you know, if you want to buy it again, you have you have my blessing. I will say this, though. This is one of the things I've never really gotten into, but it has been on my mind, to be honest, when I was holding hands. If you go to their YouTube channel and like their site and the vibes are very, the vibes are very kind of, I don't know, you know, not in line with Islamic values. Let me just put it that way. So if you go to their YouTube channel, you can see that. So I kind of started thinking about how comfortable I was with the company. Like I said, just go to their YouTube channel. You'll understand what I'm talking about. And so I think that was probably one of the reasons why I was kind of quick to offload it. But different people will have different assessments. And again, Ali says, I encourage you to analyze it again. There's a lot of players in this space right now. and so I'm not uh what I'd like to see I I understand that they have like personalization now and but I'm not sure how defensible defensible that position is not really sure about how strong the moat is around their business but can this business so it seems like a marketing play fundamentally at this point like um and And yeah, that marketing spend will eat into margins, their gross margins are fantastic. But the net margin is going to be under pressure, the more entrance there are, I'm not really sure how you know, tough the barriers to entry into the space, how tough those barriers to entry are. So competition could really heat up and eat into those margins more. But I do think that the future of healthcare is personalized and it is online first. I do believe that and him seems to be executing in that space at a very high level. So yeah, could it do very well? Yeah, it could. But yeah, the all of the pieces for The theses aren't there for hymns, specifically as it relates to the proprietary product that is defensible, that can command high margins. And that's why I'm not there. Well, it says Salam again. Should we expect any trades before Trump's inauguration? Like I said, I always play the cards that I'm dealt. When I get the prices that I want, then I will deploy more cash. You saw we deployed cash this month, and I'll deploy more if we get more red in the market, inshallah. Salam Zuhair, nice to see you. Qasim says Salam. Well, thank you so much. He says, I'm here to listen to your optimistic and wise words. That's very nice of you, brother. Brother Kim says, very true. Jazakallah khair, wa-yakum inshallah. Muhammad says, Salaam-u-Alaikum, do you have any recommendations on how to strike a balance between investing to take profits in the short term and investing in stocks for the long term with the current market situation? Wa-Alaikum-Salaam brother Muhammad, I think that's a very good question. One approach that I've seen is to have like a long-term portfolio and that's kind of set it and forget it. You don't play around with that at all. And then maybe you have like a percentage, I don't know, five percent of your investing or ten percent, depending on your preferences. But you say this is okay to cure the itch that I have to do swing trades or something like that. And then so you can have one portfolio where you trade in it and one portfolio and that's kind of your savings that you're not going to mess with. That's one approach to take. What I always tell people with regards to profits is take, and this is going to differ based on your risk appetite and your risk aversion and your ability to take on risk. But you want to take enough profits so that you can be happy if things go down so you can actually buy at a discount. And also, you've left enough in your position so that you're happy if things go up. And so you have that, you have to strike that balance and just see how you feel about, you know, different positions and, and act accordingly, because my answer may be different from your answer. And my answer, you can see in my traits, like I take profits, they're, they're meaningful. Uh, but they're not like a huge amount, uh, especially when there's high conviction. And, you know, I'll, I'll give you an example, like bit tier is one of my, higher conviction plays, you know, I took profits on the way up. And then now that it, when it fell below the prices that I took profits, I started, you know, buying again. So that's how I try to do things. But he says, what are your thoughts on, uh, SPSK? Um, um for sukuk I I don't I don't mess with sukuk at all because I I haven't the majority of them I find to be wholly uncomfortable um basically reba reba based and I challenge anyone who thinks otherwise to debate me yeah it's my pleasure ali and it's uh It's my pleasure. I appreciate you asking. All right, guys, leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a PIF member if you aren't already. And make sure to enjoy your weekend. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.