The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Turning Point This Week?
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Turning Point This Week?
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro
- Tesla Model Y Updates and Market Reaction
- Market Recap: Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P Performance
- Key Economic Data Announcements This Week
- Dollar Strength vs. Inflation Concerns
- Crypto Market Trends: Fund Flows Analysis
- Tesla's Updated Price Target and Future Outlook
- Final Thoughts and Q&A
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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Salaam alaikum all. I hope you are doing well. Really strong close for Tesla. Close at four or three, but then post-market went up to four ten. They did reveal their updated Tesla Model Y in China, the Juniper. Kind of reminded me of iPhone updates where they change a few things just to boost sales. But it has had some pretty good reviews. They changed the lights a bit, the headlights, the rear lights. They also added a front-end camera and changed the wheels a bit. so that should cause a bit of a boost for their sales but also they have the hatchback coming out this year and actually first half of this year their hatchback should come out now that's a completely different design that should be exciting to see now in market news uh the dow jones was up three hundred fifty points today got a bit of a recovery there from Friday's pullback on the heels of stronger than expected economic data. We do have the NASDAQ down point three percent. The S&P is up point one six percent. Russell's up point one nine percent. The dollar index was down point two six percent, which is great. And the VIX was down. But the Treasury yield, the U.S. tenure was up today as well. So no relief on that front. That being said, we do get some pretty consequential economic data this week. So it's going to be full of economic data announcements. So PPI comes out tomorrow. And for the United States, we have core inflation for December and inflation rate, as well as we have Building permits on Friday and retail sales on Thursday. So a lot of economic data coming out. The most consequential, I think, will be the inflation data coming out this Wednesday. And I actually think maybe the market is taking too pessimistic of a stance. Perhaps they're already pricing in a disappointment in the inflation number that we get on Wednesday. Now, if we look at the fear and greed index, now different indices for fear and greed measure them differently, so you'll see slight variations between them. But it does seem like we are in fear territory, if not extreme fear territory, which makes it a better time to be buying, all else being equal, at least if history is any guide. And also for... The dollar, speaking of the dollar, Goldman released a report saying that it thought the dollar was going to be rallying five percent or more. And it basically cited two reasons for that. Number one, the strength of the US economy. in comparison to the economies of the currencies which it is compared against so europe china other major economies are lagging the us in economic strength and then also you have the tariffs the issue of the tariffs and the promises that trump keeps making regarding putting tariffs on this country that country if he doesn't get what he wants now the issue with tariffs is that they do cause inflation in the country imposing them on imports. And so if we think that the interest rate is not going to be going up, and I don't think the Fed is going to be hiking interest rates anytime soon, then that means that the real rate, so which is the nominal rate minus the inflation rate, that's going to be shrinking Which means that demand for the dollar is going to be weaker from foreign investors because the real interest rate that they'll be earning is lower. And that causes weakness in the dollar. So maybe in the near term, there will be strength in the dollar, but I think if you go medium term, longer term, the effect of these policies is a weaker dollar. So yeah, we may get some turbulence in the near term, but I think a turning point is going to be had in the near term. I would say, you know, not too distant future, I would say, with regards to the dollar and the strength of the dollar. Now, oddly enough, even though we do have fears about a strengthening dollar in relation to other currencies, it also seems that expectations for inflation going up, whether it's one year inflation or five to ten year inflation, expectations are that the inflation rate is going to go higher. So we have an economic situation where we think the dollar is getting stronger in relation to other currencies, but we also think that the dollar is getting weaker in relation to the goods and services that people use the dollar to buy. The summary of all of this is that fiat is going to zero, it seems. So the blue line here is for the one year expectation for inflation. The orange line is for the five to ten year expectation for inflation. And both of them are growing up. both up to three point three percent with the one year moving from two point eight percent to three point three and the five to ten year moving from three percent to three point three percent. So interesting economic times that we're living in. Now, speaking of going to zero, as it relates to crypto, we saw fund flows into crypto funds actually falling in recent weeks. After New Year holidays, the global inflow of the global inflow into crypto funds was only forty eight million last week. Bitcoin funds saw an inflow of two hundred and fourteen million, while Ethereum based products experienced an outflow of two hundred and fifty six million, according to coin shares. which is which coincides this outflow coincides with the revelation of where the ethereum logo comes from and it the mystery has been solved the ethereum logo actually comes from an artist's rendition of an empty wallet so go figure now We do have a possible turning point, as I mentioned, coming up this week in the form of inflation data for the market. They're either going to confirm the bearish sentiment that we've seen in the market, or they're going to represent a turning point for the market. And I actually lean towards the latter. I think that perhaps the market has gotten too down on itself and perhaps we'll have a green day on Wednesday. But we also have the Trump inauguration coming up December, I'm sorry, January, and Trump has been good to the markets. And so it's very likely that we see a Trump pump when he is sworn in. Additionally, as it relates to Trump, It was revealed that his treasury secretary actually holds half a million dollars of the Bitcoin ETF in his personal portfolio. So that's good. So you know that probably a lot of crypto friendly Opinions are going to be heard by the incoming president and his actually his administration is basically wall to wall pro crypto. So there are a number of appointments that he's made of people that are very pro crypto. So that should be good. This should be a source, inshallah, of some strong catalysts for the market. speaking of catalyst tesla gets higher price target from morgan stanley so morgan stanley analyst adam jonas not related to the jonas brothers has adjusted their price target for tesla from four hundred to four hundred and thirty dollars per share the analysts provided a bull case valuation of eight hundred dollars per share and I mentioned my My price target was closer to seven hundred per share for Tesla, the twelve month price target. as well as a bear case valuation of two hundred per share. And analysts highlighted the potential for Tesla's autonomous vehicles, referring to the possibility of the number of autonomous vehicles growing to seven point five million by twenty forty, with an estimate revenue of one point four six dollars per mile or a twenty nine percent EBITDA margin. So imagine seven point five million reliable workers that never get sick, always on time, always working, great attitude, never go on strike, seven point five million working around the clock, producing twenty nine percent EBITDA margin for you as a company. That's got to be a great position to be in. Jonas also noted that Tesla could debut its unsupervised autonomous vehicle fleet in a city setting by next year. The widespread deployment might not happen until twenty thirty. Let's hope that that last part is not exactly accurate. I'm hoping that we see the first dollar from autonomous vehicles in the next twelve to twenty four months and a quick ramp up after that. All right, so going to questions. Salamat Ali. Nice to see you. Alhamdulillah. Yes, indeed. The group of ours has a lot of barakah. Do leave a like on this live if you enjoy it so that more people can see it and we can grow our community. If you'd like to become a PIF member, link to do so is in the description. Yes, indeed, Ali, staying true to our morals and standards. Inshallah, Allah will give us more barakah. Wa alaikum salam, Dr. Khalid. Nice to see you as always. Dr. Bas, nice to see you. Uh, done a lot of sniping at stocks as they fall. That's great. Do you think there will be more opportunities to coming weeks? I like to play the cards that were dealt. So, you know, if we get attractive prices, great. If we don't, then we've done some sniping and that's great. um as I as I said I am leaning towards a bullish turnaround in the next week in the markets but uh you know allah I did say that we would get a pullback in january and We did get that. So that's great. I hope, you know, at least some of you are able to take advantage and hopefully made some money or save some money. And yeah, but I'm under no illusions about my predictive abilities in the near term for things. So markets could go either way, but I am kind of leaning towards a turnaround in the next week, inshallah. Ali says, you convinced me to invest in Ethereum. No, you got the message wrong, Ali. Hey, Salamat, Rashad. Nice to see you. Thank you. Glad you enjoyed the video, LS. It is a deluxe video. This is an inside joke. All right, Rashad. More pics, inshallah. I hope you guys enjoyed this live. Leave a like if you did. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.