The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Fed is Clueless!
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The Fed is Clueless!
In this episode, we will cover:
- Intro
- Market Recap: Major Indices in the Red
- US Treasury Yields & Dollar Index Analysis
- Tesla’s Stock Outlook for 2025
- Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Solana Price Updates
- National Bitcoin Reserve Predictions for 2025
- Credit Card Defaults & Financial Hardships
- Why Investing is Essential in 2025
- Iris Energy’s Record Growth in Bitcoin Mining
- XRP, Alt Season, and Crypto Investment Insights
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Thursday, January, and the major indices did snap a three-day win streak today. So we did end lower with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P all in the red. Now, what was very good about today is that the US ten-year treasury yield fell again today, and this has been a headwind for the markets and has been an obstacle for the bull market to make its next leg up. The dollar index was also down slightly today, which is also good for risk assets. And VIX creeped up slightly as well. Looking at some of the major names that we follow, Tesla was down a bit. I think that that's totally understandable considering the run that it has been on as of late. So we had bounced back. From, you know, three hundred and seventy five almost at the start of the year. And now we're at four thirteen. I think that twenty twenty five is going to be a really pivotal year for this stock, as there are a number of catalysts for it. I do expect us to end the year. At least in the seven hundreds, maybe even more than that. So we'll see. Bit tier, even though everything was red or the majority of things were red, bit tier was in the green. Iris Energy was down close to one percent. and bitcoin at ninety nine thousand it was at a hundred thousand earlier today dogecoin at thirty seven cents it was at thirty eight cents earlier and uh solana at two oh eight it was uh close to two fifteen earlier so a lot of traders uh taking some profits after the uh run-up that we've had in the last three days The general market map looks something like this. Now, seventy seven percent of the companies that reported earnings so far have beat their expectations. So really strong earnings season has gone underway, led by the banks, which, if you recall, in a previous slide, I said this was the perfect market. Well, a lot of what pushed bank profits up is trader profit. And that is because we had a lot of volatility in the markets, which created a lot of opportunities. So I want you to look at volatility as really opportunity when it presents itself. And I titled this live, They Have No Idea. Because it really is apparent that the Fed has no idea what is going on in the economy and inflation. They're just guessing like everyone else is. So Federal Reserve official came out and said, hey, maybe we'll have three to four cuts. It might be possible in twenty twenty five that we have three to four cuts after all. Even though the last formal meeting for the Fed in December, they mentioned, okay, we're going to do probably one or two. This comes after the inflation reports that we got this week, which showed that inflation was actually quite under control. the lesson here is not to really bank on you know what the fed says and rather be data driven and that's what we've tried to do on this channel now some really interesting developments in the crypto world so The probability for a national Bitcoin reserve in twenty twenty five, mind you, is now back above fifty percent. And this has correlated quite strongly with the price of Bitcoin itself. I do believe that something like a national Bitcoin reserve would be a bigger catalyst for Bitcoin itself than even the ETFs were. It's going to kick off a race between different countries. to create their own Bitcoin reserves. And it's going to create a constant bid for Bitcoin from parties that have very deep pockets. And in fact, the deepest of pockets, considering that they can just print money when they want. And not only this, but President-elect Donald Trump is open to creating an America-first strategic reserve that prioritizes cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP. XRP has been on quite the run since the fourth quarter of last year. I have to say it's something that I haven't really gotten and it escapes me what is the unique value proposition here. But it does seem to move up and down based on the fortunes that it has and its legal battles against the SEC. And it does seem like... the Securities and Exchange Commission is going to be striking a very different tune with this new administration. Now, Solana is something that we hold in our PIF portfolio, so that would be really great. Missing from this list is Dogecoin, which would make a great addition to any strategic reserve, if I do say so myself. I do expect fully a Dogecoin ETF to at least be applied for in the next twelve months. We'll see. Credit card defaults are at record levels, so not everything is rainbows and sunshine, as they say, the credit card default rate experienced its biggest growth. The default rate experienced its biggest growth since the two thousand eight, two thousand nine financial crisis. So that's not good. People are are struggling. Many people are struggling. And now I have to say that The best way to struggle is to not be invested. I'm assuming everyone who's watching this is invested and interested in investing. But if you look at the wage growth and you compare it to the cost of living, It just has not kept up with the cost of living. But the S&P and the growth in the S&P has kept up. So that is something that people have to really adapt to. Just working and saving the money that you earn from working, it's not going to cut it anymore. You really have to invest your money. There's no way around it or else you're going to end up in the uh bottom in terms of in terms of net worth in society and What comes with that with, you know, financial hardship and a ever tightening belt that you have to deal with, with regards to your standard of living. So something to really prioritize in twenty twenty five, if you haven't really taken investing seriously, is to take it very seriously and to consider it to be one of the essential life skills that you absolutely have to have. Now, going back to the movers today, there was some chatter in the Discord, the PIF Discord, about Iris Energy. And we see it's in the red. It really has not done nearly as good as Bitdeer, for example, has. I do like to remind myself of the theses for different companies now the thesis for ios energy relates to its its power capacity access to power and and You know, the reason why we haven't taken fully our profits on that position is because I do think that there is a distinct possibility that an agreement is struck with a hyperscaler that really takes the stock to, you know, the next level in terms of price. And I do think that the... The quality of execution from the Iris Energy team has been really second to none. If you look at twenty twenty four, Iris Energy achieved a new industry record for the fastest operating hash rate growth in a single year. among Bitcoin miners growing four hundred percent. And by the way, it also held that one year growth record was three hundred and fifty percent in twenty twenty three. So they're executing at a very high level. And even though we went through the halving in twenty twenty four, it's still managed. So even though the the blockchain was giving out half the rewards it previously did, IOS Energy still managed to produce a lot more Bitcoin than it has. And you can see the trajectory here with December being a record month for the production of Bitcoin for IOS Energy, despite the increased difficulty and despite the lower rewards and obviously this is a function of their hash rate growth so this is a team that has been executing at a very high level I do think that Bitcoin the asset that they're involved in mining will increase in price probably to around two hundred thousand allahu alam this year and so they have that going for it they also have the access to power and land that a lot of companies are looking for in order to build out their data centers. So that should be a distinct asset for them as well. So not really concerned about it. Inshallah, it pays off even more than it has already paid off. Keep in mind, we've been in this stock since it was two or three bucks a share. So we've already done very well. I think there's still some meat left on the bone, inshallah. All right, let's go to questions. Haroon, assalamu alaikum. Semiconductor stocks, I think that something to be very mindful of is profit margins when you're dealing with semiconductor stocks. Obviously, the gross profit needs to be positive. It needs to be healthy enough. But you need to look at that bottom line as well and make sure that the profit margin there is healthy enough. Now, other than NVIDIA, NVIDIA can name the price that it wants because no one does what it does. But other companies, for example, Super... super micro computer, the profit margins there are not as healthy. So the margin for error is not really as healthy. So something to keep in mind. What do you think of Mr. as an investment instead of Bitcoin? I mean, it's performed very well. My issue with Mr. relates to, so micro strategy that is, my issue relates to its use of debt as part of its business model. It's not an incidental use of it. It's sort of weaponizing debt to build shareholder value. And this debt is, there is an expected benefit from the lenders when they're issuing this debt. And this expected benefit can be understood as a form of reba. And so that's why I've stayed away. If you ever leave something for the sake of Allah, He will replace it with something even better. And so that's what I operate on. Ashraib, it's my pleasure. Thanks for coming. Trump will revamp crypto. What do you think about the price of gold? I mean, the price of gold in twenty twenty four did a lot better than it usually does. And I think this is a function of. You know, less, even though the, the markets were, did extremely well and typically, you know, gold is seen, seen as a safe haven haven. So something that people go to when it's, when the environment is risk off, but that was not the environment in twenty, twenty-five and yet it did very well. And so I really think that people are just losing. losing faith in fiat generally and they're demanding higher and higher yields on bonds as we can see and so you know risk assets and and assets that were previously seen as a safe haven are all benefiting at the same time it's kind of an everything bubble it's uh It's the end of an era with regards to the monetary system that the world has followed. And the ramification, the consequence of this is that asset prices are increasing in a very big way because people want out of the fiat system. And gold is one of those outs. But I do think Bitcoin is going to increasingly take the role of gold. Dr. Bastas, assalamu alaikum, brother. I know you mentioned investment for all people, but with the crazy cost, some people don't have any money left to invest after basic necessities. Advice. There's two solutions here. You can either increase your income or decrease your costs. But you need to do one of them or both in order to continue to be aggressive with investing because until you reach the escape velocity with your investment balance and you can kind of live off of your investments and you don't really have to work. But until then, you really have to be aggressive with And take advantage of what I mentioned is the everything bubble that we're living in right now because that's your path to freedom, inshallah. If you're not a PIF member yet, I know, Dr. Abbas, you are. But if you're not a PIF member yet, become a PIF member. Link to do so is in the description. It's a lot easier to invest and stay disciplined and make good decisions when you're part of a community. You get access to our portfolio and you get access to the PIF community. A lot of IQ points in that community that are really beneficial to get exposure to. What do you think of all this XRP hype, especially from big institutions? You know, I'm fine with missing it. I'm fine with missing that XRP run. Hopefully we'll make up for it in other things. I just don't think that with the dilution that they... have that this is necessary I mean keep in mind xrp has done a whole bunch of bunch of nothing for a very long time but that only in the past you know a couple of months has it done well but yeah I'll keep an eye out on it I'm still trying to you know maybe one day I'll have a live where I go deep into something like xrp Alt season, I don't necessarily think that we're going to have the same type of alt season that we had previously where basically anything will pump. I think the investor right now is a lot more discerning and they kind of get the crypto game. We've been through years of investing in crypto. The investors are smarter now. So unless you're investing in truly a winner, then you're not going to do well. So I wouldn't really... So unless you know what you're doing, I wouldn't really just blindly pick up some small caps anticipating an alt season because it may not pan out the way it has panned out previously. uh fanable says salam alaikum the syrian currency is on a bullish trend any other ways we can invest in the syrian economy so pif members know I did buy uh you know syrian currency in anticipation of it appreciating in value and I think the the real appreciation is going to happen once they take the picture of assad off of the currency uh but um other ways to invest. Anything you touch in Syria is going to turn into gold. I really believe that. Like if you touch real estate, if you open a business there, if you open, you know, there's so much opportunity there. And so I really think that that's, you know, the earlier you get, you know, access to assets in that country, the better. Obviously, real estate is going to do well. You have, you know, that will probably return in the next five years in one form or another. So real estate's going to do extremely well. Basically, the economy is zero there right now. So every business that has succeeded in other countries is going to be replicated in Syria. So you can think delivery businesses, Syrian version of Amazon, for example, that's going to be created. So if you can get early in on some of these businesses, I think you can do really, really well. Hey, thanks, Abdullah. I appreciate it. And if you did enjoy this live, do leave a like and become a PIF member if you haven't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.