The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

A Catalyst Party 🥳

• Rakaan Kayali

â–º If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!

â–º More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance


A Catalyst Party 🥳

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro and Market Summary
  • Weekly Market Recap: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell
  • Bitcoin Hits $106K, Dogecoin Surges
  • Trump’s Executive Orders: Bitcoin Reserve?
  • Analysis of External Revenue Service Proposal
  • Metaplanet’s Billion-Dollar Breakthrough
  • Closing Remarks

CONTACT US

salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well today is friday january seventeenth and I hope you had a great week the markets certainly had a great week we started off kind of pessimistic but then soon rallied as soon as the economic numbers started coming out and now we are just three days removed from the inauguration of President Donald Trump. And with that, there may be an avalanche of executive orders, some of which may be catalysts for the market to go even higher. We'll talk about that in a second. So in summary of today's action, we did get positive indices. So The Dow Jones was up less than one percent. The Nasdaq was up more than one and a half percent. The S&P was up exactly one percent. And the Russell was up point four three percent. The dollar index was up. The VIX was down and. The U.S. ten-year treasury yield was up slightly today, .二 percent, not that great for risk assets, but something that may have contributed to the end of trading day pullback that we experienced. So speaking of end of trading day pullbacks, Tesla was on fire this morning, went up to four hundred and forty dollars and then dropped to under four thirty currently at four twenty six uh right before the closing bell for the market now I do anticipate this is a lot more related to market dynamics than anything else Moving down the list, Bitdeer surprisingly was in the red today after starting very strong. Iris Energy was up close to five percent. Bitcoin was, well, it peaked close to one hundred and six thousand. It's now back at one hundred and four thousand. But Dogecoin is just beasting along now today. recording another ten percent plus day in its price so really following the path that it had followed in the last inauguration we'll see how and keep in mind last inauguration the real strength came post inauguration so there may be some additional appreciation left here. Now, speaking of the short term, we do see, if we're looking at the liquidation map, we do see some resistance at the one Oh six mark for Bitcoin. And in terms of support, you have support at one Oh three seven. You also have support at one Oh one. So that is looking good. In terms of longer term, the Bitcoin market is currently in a growth phase. If you look at the MBRVZ score, and this is basically my favorite measure to look at, basically looking at how much people are sitting on in terms of profit. to figure out local tops and local bottoms. If you hear the user Axel Adler Jr. smooths out the NVR VZ score by the a hundred and eighty day moving average, And so basically we had local tops around the two level for the MVRVZ score. And right now we're basically be at point five. So we are we are distant from overbought levels. And that is a good thing. Now, part of the optimism today in the markets may be due to President-elect Donald Trump having a constructive conversation with China's president, Xi Jinping, about TikTok and other issues as he prepares to take office in a matter of days. And word on the street is that both leaders are going to release a TikTok dance, which I'm sure will garner a lot of views. Donald Trump also mentioned that he was going to establish an external revenue service as opposed to the internal revenue service that we have today. For far too long, we have relied on taxing our great people using the internal revenue service through soft and pathetically weak trade agreements. The American economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the world. I should add, the world has also contributed growth and prosperity to the United States. while taxing ourselves, it is time for that to change. I am today announcing that I will create the external revenue service to collect our tariffs, duties, and all revenue that come from foreign sources. We will begin charging those that make money off of us with trade and they will start paying. I mean, part of me thinks that he is simply catering to his base, uh, Because, you know, a lot of these policies are going to end up, I mean, if he, you know, truly starts implementing sky high tariffs on imports, that's going to really be detrimental to the American consumer now, because they're going to end up paying higher prices for things that really don't need to be built in the United States and a lot of the things that should be built in the United States will perhaps not be built because Americans will be preoccupied building other things that they used to offshore to other people. So if tariffs were a silver bullet, everyone would have done them a long time ago. They're not a silver bullet. They have a lot of negative impacts. So I think that you know, a lot of this messaging is just targeted towards people with, let's say, simple minds that just don't really think about, you know, second, third, fourth order derivative impacts of a policy like tariffs. January, the birth date of the external revenue service make America great again. Now, the sort of, you know, party of catalyst that we may get comes from the planned a hundred or so executive orders starting on day one that Trump plans on issuing. regarding a range of topics that span from the border deportation to crypto and establishing a Bitcoin reserve. So I'm sure some of these executive orders may not be necessarily catalytic for the markets but some of them I think certainly will be one of those would be the establishment of a national bitcoin reserve I said that I thought the probability of this happening was above fifty percent at a time when the market was feeling down on this probability but and now I think the market has changed its outlook on this particular issue and it's now assigning a seventy percent a seventy percent probability that this gets done before january first twenty twenty six so that definitely has supported the price of bitcoin and the rise that we've seen Fred Kruger mentions that he thinks a Bitcoin strategic reserve will be announced on Monday. Here's why he's certain of this. There will be a very large number of executive orders announced Monday. If there isn't an executive order on the Bitcoin strategic reserve, then a lot of Trump's donors will be very upset. Trump does not want this at the start of his presidency. Therefore, there will be a BSR executive order on Monday. Here's my calculus on this particular topic, and that is Trump likes to be praised, and he especially likes to be praised when the action that gets him the praise doesn't cost him anything. So something like establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve doesn't cost him anything at all. And he's going to receive nothing but praise for it. So he'll do it. That's kind of my calculus about it. And he understands where sentiment is and how to appeal to the masses. He understands that very well. That's perhaps his number one skill and what has gotten him to where he is. And therefore, I think that he's keenly aware of the popularity that such a step would bring him. And there's no political cost to it. There's nothing that he has to sacrifice in order to get this done. And so he'll do it. And that's simply my calculus on this. In other news, Metaplanet, a Japanese company that we told you guys about on this live, that has sort of mimicked micro-strategies with regards to building market value. Its market cap has now exceeded one billion for the first time since adopting its Bitcoin standard. Keep in mind, this was a this was a company that had a market cap below two hundred million. only three months ago, back in October. So yeah, now it's above one billion. So inshallah, we're able to put our money in opportunities like this. I think there's opportunities like this all the time. If you'd like to see where we're putting our money and invest alongside us, join our community, become a PIF member. Link to do so is in the description. Like this live if you enjoyed it. Make sure to enjoy your weekend. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.