The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

This Is A Bubble

Rakaan Kayali

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This Is A Bubble

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Intro & Market Recap
  • Stock Market Rally: Dow, Nasdaq, & S&P Performance
  • Tesla’s Growth & Full Self-Driving Moat
  • Bitcoin Reserve: What It Means for Crypto
  • Google’s AI Investments & Market Reaction
  •  Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score: Bullish Indicator?
  • Will Dealerships Disappear? Tesla’s Advantage
  • Final Thoughts & PIF Membership Benefits


CONTACT US

salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

As-salamu alaykum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. My apologies for doing this live later. I was actually debating whether or not I should do it considering how late it has gotten, but it has been a busy day, but I'd like to keep the streak alive and go live. See if there's any burning questions on your mind that I can answer as well and keep you at ease in case you have any nervousness about the markets. So looking at the markets today, they've performed quite well. Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P and Russell were all in the positive. And we also got some positive developments with regards to the yield on the ten-year treasury. Remember, this is basically something that moves opposite to risk assets or it's better for risk assets when this goes down. And so the yield on the ten-year treasury was down two percent. Salam, Rashad. Nice to see you. Yeah, no cause for alarm. I'm going to talk about the bubble I wanted to talk about was Palantir stock. So in case you just wanted to check what bubble I was talking about, this is the one. The VIX was down, so the nervousness in the market is down, which is good. And the dollar index is down as well. This is also something that we'd like to see going down because that means that in dollar terms, stocks are becoming cheaper for international investors. Also means that foreign income that US companies earn translates into more dollars, which means better earnings and revenue numbers. As it relates to some of the big names here, Tesla was down four percent and video was up five percent. Bitdeer was down close to four percent. Iris Energy was up close to four percent. Piedmont Lithium was pretty much flat. Other names like Taiwan Semiconductors was up a smidge. Supermicrocomputer. Something that a stock that was in the hundreds a few months ago and is now all the way down to thirty. A lot of people are considering it in terms of potential candidate for a good rebound. And perhaps it is. That being said, there are some questions about the trustworthiness of management and their reporting and how much you can trust the numbers that are reported in their financials. So we'll see what happens with regards to their next earnings report. With regards to Bitcoin, Doge and Solana, they still haven't really recovered from the tariff drop that we experienced on Friday. They had a brutal weekend of liquidations. These names and all crypto really had a brutal weekend of liquidations and they haven't really recovered. I do believe that they will recover. I don't think there's any need for panic. And historically speaking, we are where we have been at around this time in the cycle. So it doesn't seem like that has broken. Now, with regards to Palantir stock, this is their chart right here. You can see how much it is up. It has gone from close to twenty four or actually sub twenties a year ago. to a hundred and one right now. So a lot of groups now, what does Palantir do well? Uh, they essentially. create software and their customers are typically the US government. Sometimes they do foreign work as well, but that software aggregates data from different sources. And it uses this data to make predictions. Now, the implementation of this software, the use of this software are not just for government applications, but they can be used in things like healthcare and finance and wherever data having predictive attributes is applicable, which is basically everywhere. Now, we do hold an uncomfortable rating for Palantir, and that's based on its associations with Israel. And we believe that these associations are material and they are current. So just keep that in mind. So this is not even a candidate that we're considering for investing. However, some things stood out to me when I looked at their financials. And the valuation that they are getting right now. So Palantir reported revenue on reported their earnings on the third of February. Palantir reports Q for twenty twenty four revenue growth of thirty six percent year over year, which, by the way, when you're talking about software, thirty six percent year over year isn't really amazing. I mean, top line growth. I mean, I can name probably a dozen software companies that have this type of growth. U.S. revenue growth of a fifty two percent year over year issues fiscal year twenty twenty five guidance with revenue growth of thirty one percent year over year. So they're expecting thirty one percent year over year growth, which is Okay, I mean, that's just another software company, basically. That's nothing really to write home about, thirty-one percent growth. Inshallah, PIF will beat that. Eviscerating consensus. By the way, when you have companies using eviscerating, the word eviscerating consensus estimates, I mean, this is, what are we talking about? This is This is kind of giving marketing material vibes. So, I mean, I don't know, kind of, I don't know, salesy. The tone that they're striking here is salesy. I like when earnings reports are matter of fact. Just speaking of data, just give me the data. Tell me what happened. I'll make the decision about what it eviscerated or didn't eviscerate. I don't need you to tell me what you've eviscerated. So Palantir, you know, right off the bat, something seems very fishy about this company. And there's something fishy about the CEO. I'm not talking smell wise. I'm just talking, you know, the way he conducts himself, something very fishy about this guy. I'm not really comfortable at all when he speaks. It doesn't seem like someone I would do business with. In terms of the numbers that were reported. So for the year ended December, first, they made two point eight billion dollars top line here. Revenue. They made two point eight billion dollars. This is a respectable number, but you have to take it in relation to, you know, what is the market valuing this company? Sales and marketing are close to a billion. That's not great when sales and marketing is is a third of revenue, that's not really great. That doesn't really imply that the growth is organic, that the product is selling itself. And research and development is a five hundred million. I'm not mad at that. General and administrative at five hundred million seems a lot for a software company that is that is earning two point eight billion general and administrative seems like a lot so we'll talk about that uh total operating expenses close to two billion income from operations uh three hundred million so income from operations is three hundred million Interest income is two hundred million. So they must have a lot of cash. Net income is. Four hundred and sixty seven. Million. So. Net interest income is basically fifty percent of net income. That is a terrible ratio to have. That is not really a company that is doing amazingly good in terms of producing value for people. When interest income is half of your net income, something's up. I mean, maybe if you're just starting out, you can have a wacky ratio like that. But as a mature company, you really should never have a ratio like that, unless you're a bank where interest income is half of net income. So that's kind of a flavor of what we're talking about here. If we look at current assets, so they have cash and cash equivalents of two billion marketable securities. of three billion. So they have a good amount of liquidity. Let's see their debt. They have very little debt, which is good. And if you look at their cash flows, this is going to tell you a lot about sort of the culture in the company. So net income is four hundred and sixty seven million. But this is not really telling you the entire picture. In terms of cash flow, they're producing a lot more money. The reason why net income is so low is because their stock based compensation is close to seven hundred million. So, you know, the executives in this company are really enriching themselves to a large degree. At the expense of shareholders by paying themselves seven hundred million dollars. In stock based compensation. This is a crazy amount to pay yourself, considering that revenue was two point eight billion. And so the net cash that was provided by operating activities was one point one billion. So, you know, a bit better than the less than half a billion that we saw in terms of net income. But now let's look at the elephant in the room. The elephant in the room. Is that the the market is valuing this company at two hundred and thirty six billion dollars. This is a company that had less than half a million, half a billion in net income. Yes. In terms of cashflow, it was a billion, a billion one. But it's, it's, I mean, a management is paying itself pretty generously and that doesn't seem like a, a practice that it's going to cease anytime soon. Again, here, revenue of two point eight seven billion. So, I mean, basically, what are we talking about? A hundred times top a top line. The market is valuing this company. But that seems like a bubble to me. I mean, and, you know, margins are what you expect from a software company. Margin gross margins are eighty percent. Yes. If you look at the net margins, they aren't that great. There are software companies that have thirty, forty percent margins net. The net margin here is sixteen point one. So we're not talking about great margins. Their free cash flow is thirty nine point eight percent. Again, better. But their stock based compensation is taking the majority of that away. Price to earnings ratio, four hundred and forty. I'd like Peter Lynch to have a comment about that. Even though I don't like looking at price to earnings, I look because this is trailing twelve months, I like to look at forward price earnings, but still kind of gives you an idea of where we are. And I mean, the amount of growth that this company has experienced in no way justifies this type of growth. Yeah, I know they eviscerated consensus estimates, but what are we talking about? We're talking about revenue growth of thirty six percent year over year. For a software company and because it's a software company. I feel like when I say software so many times, I feel like Allen Iverson talking about practice. But it's a software company, what are we talking about? But because it's a software company, I don't really see it having a really robust moat like something like a Tesla has where, yeah, it's software, but it's paired with robots. It's paired with vehicles. And therefore, the moat has an added dimension. With regards to software, even if it looks really complex, the Chinese can... The Chinese can replicate this with two packs of ramen noodles and a million dollars. It's possible they could spin something very similar in a few weeks. especially after the deep seek revelation, people should be very wary of companies that are simply reliant on a software because if something like you know, a large language model can be replicated and in fact improved upon and just released as open source, like it was nothing and, you know, done as a side project for a hedge fund, then no software company is really safe. No pure software company is really safe. And so for Palantir, I don't think it's, it's, it's any different. Um, Now, price target for this, by the way, is eighty one dollars. We're already above one hundred. And. You look at something like PEG ratio, it's eight point three. I mean, Peter Lynch liked a PEG ratio of one. Anything above that was too high, he thought. Now, I don't necessarily agree with it. Depends on the moat that the company has around its product. If you look at something like Tesla, here I'm looking at Tesla, by the way, has a market cap of one point two trillion. But the revenue is is one hundred billion. We're talking about one hundred billion dollar revenue business trading at twelve times that. We're not talking about two point eight billion trading at trading at two hundred and thirty six billion a hundred times. So why the market feels inclined to give Palantir this type of multiple escapes me and if you look at the peg ratio for uh for tesla seven point seven again I don't really like looking at pag so I mean palantir is valued more expensively than tesla at current price so that doesn't make any sense to me and you look at you know tesla return on equity twenty two percent Return on assets, eleven percent. Look at Palantir. Return on assets, negative seven point five. Return on equity, negative nineteen point nine percent. So just a word of caution for people who get swept up and. the moment. It's very easy to become a prisoner of the moment, to sort of take a step back and look at the numbers, see if they make sense, be a data-driven halal conscious investor, not an emotion-driven halal conscious investor, not a FOMO-driven halal conscious investor. All right, so with that being said, let's look at a couple of news items and then we'll let you guys go. So this is a great idea, I think. Elon Musk proposes putting the U.S. Treasury on blockchain for full spending transparency. I have a feeling this will never happen. But this could be one of the uses of crypto that makes a lot of sense. So, you know, government action, I do believe, should work. lean towards transparency whenever possible blockchain as a public ledger technology for a public ledger seems very appropriate to use for this use case I would love to see crypto actually having you know a use case beyond the original store of value use case of bitcoin and beyond other utilities like oh here's how to make more money from crypto Google has officially eliminated its minority hiring goals and will review its DEI programs. And I honestly think this is great news. I really didn't believe in DEI at all. I think it's, I think, you know, it is, especially as, you know, Muslims, the Prophet, peace be upon him, taught us to always hire based on merit And having DEI is basically sort of, I think, tacit implication that, you know, without DEI, certain people can't compete. And I just don't think that's true. The FDIC is planning to revise crypto guidelines for banks, allowing them to conduct activities without regulatory permissions. So. Some banks have met with government officials to push for offering custody of crypto assets along with tokenized deposits that could put some checking accounts on blockchains. So again, everything is pointing towards a better regulatory environment that is encouraging of cryptocurrencies. And so this gives me. I think additional confidence that crypto generally should appreciate in price led by a Bitcoin and the market cap of crypto should grow under this new administration. And now something that brings me back to earth and perhaps you know, rolls back that sentiment is comments from Eric Trump about crypto. Uh, so in this tweet, he's saying it's a great time to add Ethereum. Ethereum, by the way, is, you know, another source of depression when thinking about crypto, uh, just, you know, something speaking of a bubble, uh, there's a bubble for you. Um, the Ethereum, but, um, Yeah, so with that, let's take some questions very quickly because I know it's kind of late. Assalamualaikum. Waalaikumsalam to all. I don't think there's any reason to be nervous about Bitcoin or Bitcoin miners. I think inshallah they'll do well. I think healthcare, especially in some of the smaller cap healthcare stocks that are doing things that are innovative with the rollback of regulation and increased mergers and acquisition activity that should come from that, I think a lot of them will do very well. With regards to PLL, I think it's undervalued and I think it's... sort of a game of patience at this point. I would dollar cost average into Tesla. Like I said, if you'd like to be a millionaire, perhaps this is not financial advice. This is how I think about it. If I would like to add a million dollars to my future net worth, I will try to add another three hundred shares. That's what I would do. Perhaps we'll go into a more sort of detailed breakdown of RoboTaxi revenue and profit. Thanks Khaled, I really appreciate you showing up. Yeah, Palantir, I mean, the vibes are off as the young folks say. My pleasure. Dr. Khalid says, eviscerating is equivalent to jobs in medical field where they say lucrative. Yeah, to share. Yeah. Yeah, just, I mean, the Chinese are resourceful and proven to be very intelligent. Some noodles, a bit of cash and they'll do anything. How do you interpret gold prices going up? By the way, I mean, no disrespect to anyone who may be Chinese. I have a lot of respect for Chinese people. So just putting that out there. Amir says, how do you interpret gold prices going up? Well, I do think it's sort of an everything bubble that we're living in right now. And I think it makes sense that asset prices go up as confidence, long-term confidence in fiat wanes. Uh, the, uh, platform I was using is called FinChat. This is so FinChat, F I N C H A T dot IO. The, how that report is from our site. That's app.practicalislamicfinance.com link for that is in the description. Also link to become a member is in the description. So do become a member if you aren't already. I do think that the strategic Bitcoin reserve will pass and I don't think it not passing will mean that the crypto cycle is over it will just be one catalyst that didn't materialize inshallah we will have another one soon I think the economy is doing well. I wouldn't put too much weight on jobs reports. If you remember, if you recall last year, the jobs report number was revised a lot afterwards and turned out that It was completely different from what was reported at the time. So I wouldn't put too much weight on it. Most important numbers, I believe, are the inflation and looking at the earnings for companies. And the earnings have been quite solid. So I think those give you the best indications about the state of the economy at any one point and the state of where risk assets should be in the future. All right, guys, thank you all. If you enjoyed this live, do leave a like. I really appreciate you guys tuning in at this late time. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. As-salamu alaykum and peace be upon you all.