The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast

Competition is Heating Up 🔥

• Rakaan Kayali

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Competition is Heating Up 🔥

In this episode, we will cover:

  • Market Recap: Nasdaq, Gold, BTC & More
  • Tesla's Price Drop: A Buying Opportunity?
  • BYD’s Smart Driving Upgrade – Real Threat to Tesla?
  • Rivian Opens Commercial Van Orders – Game Changer?
  • Tesla’s Future: $700 Stock Prediction?
  • U.S. Stops Printing Pennies – Inflation Impact
  • Trump’s Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Explained
  • Elon Musk’s OpenAI Takeover Attempt
  • Are Put Options Halal? Islamic Finance Insights


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salam@practicalislamicfinance.com

ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Assalamu alaikum everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Monday, February the tenth and we had a positive day in the market. The major indices were all up with the Nasdaq up the most, one point two three percent. The dollar index was up a smidge. The VIX was down and the yield on the ten year treasury was up point one eight percent. Tesla continued to create an ever more attractive opportunity for investors now at three fifty. It was near. We're talking about five hundred. Not too long ago, but I do believe that we will get back up there and what we're seeing right now is an opportunity. We'll talk about how the competition is heating up in the space in a second. NVIDIA rebounded to one thirty three, continues to rebound. So, you know, congrats to those who bought at the bottom after the deep seek panic that engulfed the market about two weeks ago. Other names, Bitdeer was up close to five percent today. Iris Energy reports earnings on Wednesday was up three point one three percent today. Palantir continues to go up. It's now at one hundred and seventeen. I absolutely believe that. A lot of shorts have something to do with this. I've gone over this before. I don't think the valuation for Palantir makes much sense. Assalamu alaikum, Ashad. Nice to see you. Newly anointed moderator. Assalamu alaikum, Khaled. Nice to see you from the gym. Hamid, nice to see you. Salam to everyone tuning in. If you enjoyed these lives, do leave a like. And if you're not part of our community, make sure you become part of our community. There's a lot of value there. Gold continues to reach ever higher highs. It's now at twenty nine hundred and Who knows? Maybe we get three thousand not too long from now. BTC is still below one hundred thousand and ninety seven thousand. Doge is at twenty five cents. It's been lingering at this level for a while. Let's hope it can hold this support. And Solana is at two hundred even. All right. So in terms of the details for Solana, the competition that is heating up in the EV space. BYD's most affordable EVs just got a smart driving upgrade for free. Now it's unclear to me smart driving, how close that is to full self-driving, which is what we like to talk about when we're talking about projections for Tesla's EV business and specifically the margins that it can potentially get from its EV business if it starts with full self-driving and builds off of that into a robot taxi network and passenger delivery services that have very high margins. So it's If I had to bet, and I do believe that there will be other car companies with their own versions of full self-driving. I think that's inevitable. But if I had to bet and pick which car company is the most likely to do this effectively against Tesla, it would have to be BYD. And I do think that basically most of the car companies of the future will be Chinese. Now, you could argue that Tesla is already somewhat Chinese, considering its large presence in China. But most of them will be Chinese, with exception to Tesla. I believe that Tesla will be one of the very few car companies that is able to compete effectively without tariffs with Chinese cars and cars. And certainly, I think the full self-driving that Tesla has is more advanced, unless I see otherwise from BYD. This smart driving upgrade and what it's calling God Eye, no one knows, actually. Well, I should say, I don't think there's enough consumer feedback about exactly how they compare with Tesla as of yet. We'll get a lot more information later. About the advancement of their system in the coming days and weeks, I'm sure. BYD's EVs got the free smart driving upgrade, as we said. It's a vehicle intelligence event. At its vehicle intelligence event, BYD launched twenty one of its top selling models, which now include its God Eye smart driving system. So they're not really they're not even trying to call it full self-driving or anything. or autonomous driving or anything like that. They are setting the bar high when they call it God Eye, but they're calling it a smart driving system. And all cars have smart driving system at this point, but the question is how smart. And there's no extra charge for the new tech, which is pretty good for BYD owners. So we'll see. We'll keep you updated on what we learn about these systems and how sophisticated they are. In other news in the EV world, Rivian opens up commercial van orders, a potentially lucrative business. So Rivian had a deal with Amazon to supply them with a hundred thousand electric vans. And basically Amazon was only using twenty thousand. And Rivian's exclusivity with Amazon is set to end soon. And Rivian is now opening up their van business to other commercial companies. And so this is a potentially lucrative business for Rivian. That being said, Rivian is still unprofitable, still burning cash. And I have to say, just the automotive business generally is a very cutthroat business, very, very slim margins, unless you're pairing them with software that has a deep and wide moat like full self-driving. I'm not really interested in becoming a business owner of any electric vehicle companies. And therefore, Rivian will, until further notice, be a complete pass for me, a very easy pass for me. And if you look at the, if you look, for example, cash flow statement for Rivian, they're still burning close to a billion dollars every quarter. So there's likely to be a lot of dilution, a lot of financing events in the future. And I'm just not going to stick around for that. If you look at a company like BYD, they're the only company that's able to produce EVs. Actually, plug-in hybrids are a big part of their production. So it's not like they're like Tesla and that they're purely EVs. So it's kind of comparing apples to oranges when you compare the two companies. And so it's understandable that with plug-in hybrids, you're going to have a higher margin because a lot of it is a business that we, you know, everyone's already familiar with and you don't have to have, you know, with a plug-in hybrid, there's no specification for how big the battery needs to be. So long as there's any type of battery, regardless of size, plugging it in, it's a plug-in hybrid. And therefore, you know, what how close they are to full EVs will differ between different model cars. And therefore, you really can't compare the margins for BYD as a whole with Tesla as a whole. Not only that, there's other lines of business both companies have, which makes the comparison a lot tougher. But in terms of operating margin, to their credit, the BYD company does have a seven point eight percent operating margin. Now, I would still consider that a tough business to be in. Seven point eight percent. When you're looking at gross margins, you're talking about twenty one percent. you know, just top line revenue minus cost of goods sold is twenty one percent. That's not a lot of room to operate. And so this is just another example of why I really don't like investing in car businesses unless there's a robust argument for moats related to proprietary technology that they have. And the The expectation for investors in something like Tesla is that with time, these margins are going to grow a lot from the purely manufacturing margins that they currently boast, and they're going to look a lot more like software margins in the future. All right, so going back to Tesla and where Tesla stands, as we mentioned today, Tesla was at three fifty. And in terms of where Tesla stands for price targets, I personally think it's very likely that we see something on the order of seven hundred for per share for Tesla in the next twelve months. I think that especially if we get know the announcements uh actually materialize so we have the hatchback for tesla first half of uh We have the Model Y, the new version coming out. That should help with sales a bit. I'm sure a lot of people were holding off on buying last year in anticipation of this refresh. Then we have in June the rollout of the full self-driving Robotaxi, I believe in Austin, Texas. And then we have hopefully some Optimus robots rolling off the assembly line soon. probably in q four of this year so if these milestones are hit and you know relatively uh go smoothly I think we could see a seven hundred dollar a seven handle let's say for the stock by the end of the year now in terms of other analysts what they're talking about so tesla price versus the targets um We can see here the analysts that are covering and where they stand with regards to Tesla. So in terms of bullish, for example, seven, somewhat bullish, eleven, indifferent, eleven, somewhat bearish, one, bearish, six. So there's definitely a skew towards the bullish amongst analysts covering Tesla. The average. In the assessment of twelve months price targets, analysts unveil insights for Tesla presenting an average target of three hundred and sixty two now, which is above where we are right now. A high estimate of five fifty, a low estimate of twenty four dollars. I'm pretty sure you can just throw away that twenty four dollar estimate. It's probably taking the average down. This upward trend is apparent with the current average reflecting a twenty percent increase from previous average price target to ninety nine. All right. So in other news, we've stopped in sort of a sign of the times and the cutting back on expenses that we're trying to do. We've stopped printing pennies, so we're cutting costs wherever we can find them. I'm sure this is not going to do anything to the thirty five trillion in debt that the United States is in. But I guess every penny counts, pun intended. So what the end of the penny means for the economy. So basically, we stopped printing pennies. It was costing us two pennies to print one penny. So I believe that's the definition of waste. And I don't think anyone's using pennies anymore. So it makes sense to cut it. But just a sign of the times and how inflation has impacted our currency. All right, so other news, steel and aluminum stocks had a nice surge. I'm sure investors were pleased because Trump plans to impose twenty five percent tariffs on imports to the United States. Eighty percent of the United States steel and aluminum comes from overseas and now it's going to come from the United States, which means that it's going to be more expensive. Like I said, I really don't believe in any percentage of tariffs, you know, unless we're talking about something like Medicine, you want to manufacture that in-house. Other vital things, you want to manufacture those things in-house. But in terms of things that are used primarily for commercial application, obviously, if you have weapon systems, you don't want to be importing them. That makes sense regardless of economics. Always make sure that those are done in-house. But as a policy for our country, Putting tariffs on things that are mostly used for commercial purposes is not really going to help anyone and not really accomplish much. It's just going to create inefficiencies that could have otherwise been avoided. But that's what Trump's doing. And the steel and aluminum stocks like it. Who knows? Perhaps we get tariffs on lithium. Fifty percent of America's lithium comes from overseas. That would definitely favor lithium production companies that are onshore. For example, Piedmont Lithium. So we'll see if that happens. Elon Musk and pals launch massive bid to take over open AI. So in case you think Elon Musk is too preoccupied with the Department of Government Efficiency or something else on his plate, he manages to get into a lot of different things at the same time. So Elon Musk and pals launch massive bid to take over OpenAI. Open AI. I don't think they're going to take it over, but they're going to get they're trying to get, I guess, a controlling stake. I say that because it's saying here that a group of investors put in an unsolicited. It's funny, unsolicited. Ninety seven point four billion bid on the nonprofit that runs Open AI. The latest iteration of an ongoing beef between Musk and the artificial intelligence company CEO Sam Altman. I have to say of the two, I trust Musk more than I trust Altman. I don't trust Altman at all. Altman responded by saying, no, thank you, but we will buy Twitter for nine point seven four billion if you want. So nice to see beef happening with those types of numbers. I don't know what's going to happen. I know that OpenAI was trying to raise money last week at a valuation, I believe, north of three hundred billion. So but it is It is noteworthy that the group that Elon Musk brought together seemed to have some pretty deep pockets. They mentioned, if Sam Altman and the present OpenAI Inc. Board of Directors are intent on becoming a fully for-profit corporation, it is vital that the charity be fairly compensated for what its leadership is taking away from it. Control over the most transformative technology of our time. And Musk's attorney said they are willing to match or go higher than any other bids. And so more to come on that story, I am sure. So with that, let's take some questions. Nice to see you. Dr. Khan, nice to see you. Mr. Roblox is asking about put options. I do believe that probably if you're, you know, holding, let's say a hundred now contracts are a hundred shares each and puts are basically insurance against when you're holding the stock, it's insurance against the stock falling in price. And therefore, you know, if you know that it's, You need the money for whatever reason. You can't afford the stock to grow below a certain level and you don't really want to sell. You could buy puts. Let's say the stock is trading at one fifty. You can't really afford it going below one hundred. You could buy puts at one hundred. And basically that gives you the right to sell your shares at one hundred if even if the shares go below one hundred. That seems to me fundamentally fine from a moral perspective. And some investors may choose to do so. So I've gone back and forth about this a lot in my mind. I think fundamentally, when you're dealing with Fundamentally, the ethos of business in Islam, of halal business in Islam, is that you want to sell something that you hope the buyer gets value from. And certainly you don't want to sell something that if the buyer gets value from it, that means that this is going to impact you negatively. And so, you know, if you're selling an option and you're hoping that it expires worthless for the buyer, then I think there's an issue with that. from a share compliance perspective. On the other hand, if you're talking about puts and you're going back to our example, stocks trading at one fifty, you don't want it to trade less than one hundred. It's actually going to cause financial hardship for you there. And you don't mind buying an insurance policy basically in the form of a put option to protect you from that possibility. That seems fundamentally okay because you're okay if it expires worthless. If it expires worthless, that means that the risk didn't materialize and therefore what you were worried about didn't materialize like auto insurance or any other type of insurance. So you're actually happy that you didn't have to use it. If that's the case, then I think that that's fine to buy a put in that case. So I hope that makes sense. So fundamentally, you have to ask yourself, am I selling something that I hope the buyer doesn't get value from? If that's the case, then I would say that's not Sharia compliant. It's a very easy rule of thumb to use. I encourage people to use it. All right. Thanks, guys. I appreciate your questions. Do leave a like if you enjoyed this live and become a PIF member so you can follow our trades move for move. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.