
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
The Practical Islamic Finance Podcast
Don't Panic 🥶
â–º If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!
â–º More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinance
Don't Panic 🥶
In this episode, we will cover:
- Market Recap: Flat Trading & Interest Rate Outlook
- Tesla’s 30% Drop – Buying Opportunity?
- Bitcoin at $95K – Should You Be Worried?
- Goldman Sachs Increases Bitcoin Holdings – Bullish Sign?
- Lucid’s EV Strategy – A Bad Move?
- Solana ETF Approval Chances
- Why Tesla’s Powerwall Is a Game-Changer
- Final Thoughts & Q&A
CONTACT US
salam@practicalislamicfinance.com
ABOUT OUR PODCAST
Our podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.
DISCLAIMER
Anything you hear in this video is an opinion. It is not personalized financial advice. Make sure you do your due diligence before making any investment decisions.
assalamu alaikum everyone I hope you are doing well today is tuesday february eleventh and markets today were pretty flat the initial trading hours included a bit of nervousness after jerome powell talked about they were in no hurry to cut rates which makes sense and he also expressed confidence in the economy and that also makes sense Obviously, looming over the markets is or are the potential tariffs that may go into effect with numerous different trading partners of the United States that could cause inflation. So when you pair the fact that the economy is doing pretty okay and there's no reason to cut rates and the prospects of increased inflation from tariffs, the probabilities for a rate cut tend to drop as a result of all of these factors. And there is understandably some nervousness about this. All this being said, I think that what we know for sure is that Trump has really not done much in terms of tariffs. He's been quite mild in the tariffs that have actually gone into effect. Really, there has been the ten percent tariff on Chinese imports and there's been talk about and there's been tariffs on steel and aluminum. And there's also been talks of other tariffs. related to the European Union, related to Canada, related to Mexico. However, most of this has just been talks. And I think that people are gonna be able to make a deal. We saw the GMCO was in the White House trying to carve out a exception for her company. And a lot of companies are gonna do that, I'm sure. So the life will find a way, as they say, on Jurassic Park. And so I'm not really that concerned about tariffs. The economy does seem to be in a rather healthy spot, especially considering earnings and how they're coming in. And if we get an inflation print that is cooler than expected tomorrow morning, the market is really anticipating that number. then I think that we may get a reversal in direction of the market or we could get confirmation of where we're going if we get a hotter than expected inflation number. That being said, if we do, I think that that would be a great buying opportunity because as I've said on this live before, The rates are coming. The interest rates cuts are coming. There's trillions of dollars that need to be refinanced later this year. And so the rates have to come, basically. And if we get a deeper dip, a dip of the dip, so to speak, then that just means that the upside is now greater. Speaking of dips and dips of dips and dips of dips of dips, Tesla has reversed around thirty percent since its high in December. I think that is. a good opportunity for people who are convinced with the thesis for the company, but perhaps were discouraged to buy, you know, only a month and a half ago when the company was sporting a valuation that it never supported before, reaching close to five hundred on December seventeenth. So if on December seventeenth you were Asking yourself, hey, should I buy? Should I not buy? Is it too late? Did I miss it? You should definitely be interested at three twenty eight. If you are on the fence when it was four seventy eight, I think you should definitely be interested at three twenty eight. But it's funny how that works when things are going up. You'll find a lot more when things are more expensive. You'll find a lot more interested people when things are less expensive. All of a sudden investors lose interest. They start doubting their theses. They start doubting their thinking. They start listening to all the noise, all the negative comments, all the FUD, and they forget why they invested in the first place. Now, so that we're not picking on Tesla in particular. Basically, all EVs did pretty bad today. Rivian was down four percent. We talked about Rivian yesterday. Now, BYD was down two percent today, even though it revealed that it was upgrading a lot of its models for free with smart driving. NIO was down six percent. Lucid, my favorite stock in the world, was down close to three percent. Biggest cash burning stock. per unit, the pound for pound, most cash burning EV company on the planet. Bitdeer was down ten percent. Bitcoin miners didn't do great. Bitdeer was no exception. In fact, Bitdeer led the pack from the wrong side. I was down ten percent. Nothing has changed. There's no real material news that I think should cause, as I said, someone who had a thesis about the stock to change their thesis. What has happened is that Bitcoin has pulled back a lot. as has a lot of relatively speaking as have a lot of cryptos bitcoin is now at ninety five thousand oh my gosh what are we gonna do it's time to panic guys ninety five thousand per token come on remember where we were remember where we were just one year ago remember where we were in september We're in the fifties. So yeah, this is going to take, you know, I think a catalyst could really considering, and I'll show you guys in a second, considering how much short positions there are, how much liquidity or leverage positions there are. It's kind of ripe for a short squeeze. So let's talk about that for a second. So first of all the bitcoin the balance of bitcoin on over-the-counter uh markets is has been declining for years now and it's now down close to seventy eighty percent from where it was in twenty twenty one the otc market is basically a market where the big players come in they try to do big transactions without affecting the market price so So typically if you're trading on an exchange and you're trying to get a very large transaction through the exchange, that may impact the market price and may not execute at an optimal price for you. So these big players use an OTC market. These desks have been draining of their Bitcoin. And that means that in the future, this trend continues. A lot of these big players, when they want to make those big transactions, they're going to have to go do them on exchanges and get what the exchange is going to price that transaction for them. And that could cause a lot of volatility, increased volatility for Bitcoin, and it could cause a lot of upside for Bitcoin, most importantly. So, you know, the next time a Goldman Sachs wants to load up, they're going to have to do that on an exchange and they may cause a pretty substantial bid on the token, which may end up burning a lot of shorts who have taken position and are always taking position. The market is either burning shorts or burning longs, depending on what day it is. Speaking of Goldman Sachs, by the way, so that you're confident that you're investing like the pros, Goldman Sachs doubles down on Bitcoin ETFs, boosting holdings to one point five billion in Q four twenty twenty four. So Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its position on Bitcoin as recently as Q four. And by the way, asset managers with more than one hundred million in assets under management have to release information about their positions after the quarter has ended. And so we get insights into what exactly they are buying. And turns out the Goldman Sachs is buying a lot of Bitcoin. So for those who think that, oh, hey, the bull run is over. Well, not according to Goldman Sachs, it's not. As it relates to liquidity on Bitcoin, or liquidation map, rather, I should say, for Bitcoin. We can see here we're now right around ninety five thousand, as I mentioned. This green line here, this tells you all of the short positions and it's a cumulative line. So you can see how high the short positions go and you can see in contrast the long positions here. There's a lot more shorts. The green is a lot higher. and steeper for longer than the red line is. There's a lot more short positions ready for burning, as I said, than there are long positions. So it's possible if we get a catalyst, a proper catalyst for Bitcoin, like a really cool inflation print, that a lot of these shorts get burned. In other crypto news, Solana ETF filings by twenty one shares, Bitwise, Canary and VanEck have all been acknowledged by the SEC. It's very likely that we get a Solana ETF soon. In fact, if you look at Polymarket, they're putting that their approval probability for a Solana ETF at an eighty two percent chance. So that's great. Now, I wanted to go back to Tesla and tell you why you should not panic, because, by the way, panic, don't panic, not financial advice. This is just why I'm not panicking. And I hope that it's beneficial so that I'm not accused of giving anyone financial advice. But Something very remarkable happened today, which didn't get much press. Tesla just produced over fifteen hundred Powerwall threes in one twenty four hour period, which is up fifty percent, fifty percent from their previous peak of a thousand just three months ago. So they ramped up their production of these Powerwall threes fifty percent. since september in this one location since three months ago rather in this one location so this is very this is very noteworthy I mean they are ramping up fast the the chops that tesla have in manufacturing are really rivaled by none especially in you know high-tech manufacturing and this is what gets it a leg up on competition uh when we're talking about know robo taxis when we're talking about robots I think that this expertise that it has is is really quite valuable and by the way these power walls they are The most profitable product basically right now that Tesla is selling, it has a profit margin of thirty percent, thirty percent compared with cars, which often have profit margins that are less than ten percent. If if you know what you're doing. Speaking of companies that don't really know what they're doing, Lucid CEO said that, hey, you know how we're making three hundred, four hundred, five hundred mile EVs? Actually, I think one hundred and eighty mile EVs are the future. That's because people don't really drive that much. So. It's true that you often don't drive your car until it's empty. But first of all, people don't like to know that they're very close to the end of their charge. Second of all, this is an option that people like to have. They don't like feeling constrained by the range in their vehicle. to the point where they can't make road trips or go from one city to the next. Something like a hundred and eighty mile EV would make city to city travel very difficult in EVs. And so, no, I don't think there are the future. I think the trend is correct that the ranges will continue to grow over time. What's interesting is that they're losing about two hundred and twenty thousand dollars per vehicle. If so, he was touting the savings that they could make if they reduced the size of the battery so that they only provided one hundred and eighty mile ranges. can make a battery pack he says for about twenty five hundred maybe two thousand two thousand instead of twenty thousand or twenty five thousand so what that takes your you know loss per vehicle from two hundred and twenty five thousand two hundred thousand you still have a bigger problem to uh to tackle so yeah not not a big fan of the cash burning company that is lucid not financial advice go to questions guys uh simon can do you see iron as a long-term play we'll see uh it's It's something that we're following very closely. Muhammad Khalid says big amount of Mr. And my Roth IRA bought it in September, so I'm quite a bit now. I'm a believer in the company, but I know you don't like the company. Should I replace for Tesla? It's not that I don't like the MicroStrategy. It's just that I'm not really sure about usage of death as part of their business model. If this is something that I'm comfortable with from a Halal perspective. From a rotation perspective, there may be a lot of wisdom in rotating from Mr. to Tesla. Iron earnings tomorrow, we'll see. Pity price looking juicy, that's true. Price target for iron. Look at our watch list, Khaled. I think you remember. Salaam, Rashad. Nice to see you. And sorry for going live so late today. It's been a crazy day, but a lot of excited stuff we're working on. Powell and CPI this week. Nice combo. Yeah, indeed. We'll see. And Powell will be graced with his comments tomorrow afternoon as well. More Tesla dip, perhaps. This is the, you know, this is the time where I think it's a good idea to buy when there's a lot, there's a confluence of negative news hitting a stock that you believe in all at the same time. These are sort of things are lining up to give you a big discount. That's at least how I see it. So I'm like, when I can, in your opinion, what are the forces that started to influence the Bitcoin price? Because it seems BTC is now getting harder to predict. I don't think so actually if you look at the volatility of bitcoin over time it's falling so from a volatility perspective over time it's becoming more predictable What do you think iron earnings call tomorrow? I don't know. Sorry. Greetings from Deutschland. Thank you for everyone who is tuning in. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live and become a PIF member if you're not already. We have a number of very shortlisted stocks that we may add to our watchlist very soon. So tune in for that. As I mentioned, some cool features that we're working on as well. I hope you're doing fantastic. Peace be upon you all.