Salam alaikum, everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today is Wednesday, February twelve. And today's big headline was the CPI print, the inflation print that came in hotter than expected. Now we're expecting the Fed to basically hold rates as they are until September. This had a result or an impact on a lot of things. If you look at the yield on the ten year Treasury that jumped today, that's what you're seeing on your screen today. So we got a huge jump from the four point five that we've been entertaining for a while to the four point six level. Now, this is not good for risk assets when yields on fixed income instruments rise. That's not good for risk assets. And therefore, we did see a pullback in a number of different indices, but a lot of the names that we're interested in fared quite well. We'll talk about Iris Energy, which reported earnings, and we'll go through what they reported in a second. But overall, I would say there has been some pretty good resistance or pretty good resilience in the market to the hotter than expected inflation print. So that is good. That is a silver lining here. Obviously, the fact that there is probably not going to get a rate cut and probably based on the data that we're seeing right now, only one rate cut in twenty twenty five and maybe one in twenty twenty six. Obviously, that's not good for many risk assets, but we do still have a very strong economy as the data is showing. And we'll see in a second. I do think that January may be not really indicative of the longer term picture for inflation and maybe a blip in the sort of inflation progress downwards. We got a number of those last year, if you'll recall. And there's a number of data points that are going to be released between now and the next Fed meeting. that may really change the sentiment around rate cuts and we've seen a sentiment change already so many times in this cycle so let's talk about exactly what was reported so consumer prices rise point five percent in january higher than they expected as the annual rate rises to three percent so cpi accelerated to point five percent for the month of January, putting the annual inflation rate at three percent. Remember, the Fed's target is two percent, both higher than expected. So the monthly and annual are higher than expected. The core CPI ran at point four percent and three point three percent respectively. So that's excluding food and energy. Shelter costs continue to be a problem. Food prices jumped, energy prices climbed one point one percent and gasoline prices increased one point eight percent. Markets largely expected the Fed to stay on hold for an extended time and push the next rate cut probability out to September, as I said. Now, if we look at the overall consumer price index, where we were, where we are right now, So yes, we sort of bottomed out in September and we have been rising again since then. At least that's for all items. Less food and energy. We're pretty much flat since September. But you'll notice that this line, you know, as we've gone down, has not been a straight line down. There's been bumps on the road. And it's very possible that this is just another one of those bumps. I say that because if you look at other measures, let's say true inflation, which actually takes daily accounting of prices across the U.S. And I think it's probably a better measure. of inflation than what is used formally for the CPI. You can see that for the true inflation US inflation index, we went from two point seven to two point one two to start February. Now we're at two point zero seven, which is a year to date low. as per this particular measure. So it's very possible, I think, that before the Fed meeting, when we get another CPI print, when we get other economic data, that the sentiment really changes here and the probability for an interest rate cut increases and perhaps the timeline is pushed forward a bit. As I've mentioned, there's a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced in the United States, and that requires the interest rate to go down. So I still think that what we're seeing right now being priced in the market is... is perhaps a bit too pessimistic as it relates to interest rate cuts. So for March, the meeting on March, they're pricing in the market is pricing in only a two point five percent chance of a cut. So essentially they're saying it's not going to happen. In May, eighty five percent chance that we stay where we are. We don't get a cut. June, sixty seven percent chance. In July, fifty seven percent chance. And you have to go really all the way to. September to get a more than likely chance that we do get an interest rate cut. I think that this is going to change a lot as it has in the past. And so I wouldn't be sort of too bummed out by the inflation print that we got today. Things change. As I said, if you look at this chart, true inflation is indicating that things are going down. The most important thing for me is that the possibility of an interest rate hike is not is not put on the table. I think that's the point where I titled my live, okay, now it's time to panic. But so long as we're in a regime where we're either flat or going down with interest rates, I think that dips should be bought yes not all at once in one fell swoop you nibble on the way up and nibble on the way down rather and you take profits on the way up and so I I think that so long as we're in that regime where the economy seems to be doing fine productivity is increasing There are a lot of secular trends that are very promising in the market, AI being top of the list. And the interest rate regime is one where it's level and decreasing, yes, with a changing time horizon and probabilities around those time horizons. But so long as that's the case, then dips are bought. This is how I see it. This is kind of my simple mental model for viewing what's going on. And if you look at some of the names, I left the same list of stocks that we looked at yesterday when it comes to EVs, for example, and Bitcoin miners. Yesterday, if you'll recall, this entire list was red. This entire list is green today. So there is a lot of resiliency in the market. I do think that some of what transpired today was priced in by the market. We were expecting this. And so it was priced in. And to be honest, Bitcoin, Doge, I'm surprised. If I'm being completely honest, I'm surprised at how resilient they have been. Bitcoin is actually up in the last twenty four hours, two percent. Dogecoin is up five percent. These are really liquidity, liquidity based assets so long as they're basically flat. But I do think another explanation for their behavior may be optimism about perhaps tax cuts in the United States. That's one additional way to increase liquidity in the economy. Strong economy, as I mentioned, is also great for risk assets. Although, as I mentioned, crypto really focuses on liquidity in terms of how it moves. And if we get some positive developments with regards to tariffs, I think this can also be something that is supportive of crypto and risk assets generally. Let's talk about IOS Energy for a second. It's been very volatile after it released. It's also almost exactly flat. So close, it is at , it initially dipped four percent and it rebounded again. It'll be very volatile, I'm sure. But let's look at what they reported. So they did report record revenue and record operating cash flow, fifty three point seven million operating cash flow. That's always good to know that the business is maturing and that it is actually churning out positive cash flow. The operations are producing cash, not just consuming it. And their net profit is close to nineteen million. So The expectation here is that this grows a lot in the coming twelve to forty eight months. Those numbers need to grow a lot. The main sort of announcements that came in these Q two fiscal twenty twenty five for them. So they're not following the calendar year. with their fiscal year. So the main things that were announced were the seventy five megawatt liquid cooled Childress Data Center for, they call it Horizon One. And then they're also developing a six hundred megawatt, new six hundred megawatt Sweetwater Two site, which is close to the Sweetwater One site, which is in Texas. These are focusing on one customer for the data center location. And so they're probably they're probably working on some big name. So it'll be interesting to see if we get an announcement and a catalyst for this stock with, you know, the signing of a longer term agreement with one of these hyperscalers. So some of the commentary from management, we are pleased to report our Q to fiscal year twenty five results with record revenue and operating cash flow. the strategic investments we have made in scaling efficiency are starting to flow through to our earnings. So that's, like I said, that's what you want to see. Like after, you know, many quarters of, you know, establishing and getting things in place and getting operations up and running, Finally reaching maturity means that you want to see the revenues translating, trickling down into the bottom of the income statement as profit. Now, I am very pleased when I see companies I'm invested in. aggressive in their growth plans because I like delayed gratification. That's how you get the big wins when investing and in life in general. And so it's fine for me if some of what they're producing in cash, for example, is diverted into growth. and is it necessarily returned to shareholders? So long as I think that they're investing in the right places, it does seem like they're investing in spaces that are quite promising, especially in light of Stargate and what we've got in terms of confirmation from the hyperscalers that they're investing in. They're actually increasing their investments in AI infrastructure. So the product that Iron is bringing to market should be in high demand. So they mentioned we're excited to announce transformative growth initiatives across the business. Firstly, Horizon One, which is a new seventy five megawatt directed chip liquid cooling deployment at Childress. This is in Texas for AI, artificial intelligence and high performance computing. Secondly, developing a new six hundred megawatt Sweetwater to site located twenty eight miles from our existing existing Sweetwater one project expected to create two gigawatt data center hub. So the two gigawatt data center hub, that's going to be that's going to have the attention, I think, of some major players in the space. We'll see how that evolves. So the commercial rationale for the Horizon One, scarcity of liquid cooled data center capacity coupled with increasing demand for NVIDIA Blackwell coming to market, construction plan providing enhanced delivery certainty for customers. And they're really getting a lot of experience with setting up these locations, which I think given the demand for them is quite valuable. And the Sweetwater Two, focused on high-value monetization pathways, which is always something that you don't want to hear as an investor, prioritizing whole off-site single-tenant opportunities, like I mentioned, flexibility to bootstrap with Bitcoin mining. They did achieve something quite substantial with their Bitcoin mining. As it relates to their Bitcoin mining business, nothing really new to report on. So, a hash expansion on track for H-One. So, that's what we had planned all along. And the fifteen joule per terahash fleet efficiency, which is basically as of current, basically the best in the business, three cents per kilowatt hour. That's great, especially considering what they were paying. Seventy five percent hardware profit margin. Don't really like to emphasize that a lot. I'd rather look at the bottom line. because hardware profit margin doesn't really mean anything. It doesn't really take into, it only takes into account electricity costs, not a lot of the other costs associated with Bitcoin mining. All right, so, so this is what I found quite, quite noteworthy. So for the three months ended December, if you compare that with the three months ended September, so the quarter before it, Bitcoin mining revenue went from forty nine point six million to one hundred and thirteen million. So more than doubled. And then if you look at the electricity costs, they were just they didn't really increase that much. They went from twenty eight point seven to twenty eight point nine. So that allowed. the adjusted EBITDA margin to go from five percent to fifty two percent. That was something that was quite noteworthy for me looking at their financials. Obviously, another bright spot here is the fact that we're not we're not in the red anymore. That's always what you want to see. Eventually, with a company maturing, you want to see this. So instead of a loss of fifty one point seven million in Q three twenty four, now they have a profit of close to nineteen million in the last quarter of last year. So Q two fiscal year twenty five for them, but Q four twenty four if you're going by the calendar. So with that, I think the I mean, there's there's obviously the we're at thirteen thirteen now. So there's obviously the the gray cloud over the entire market. Right. And over Bitcoin related to monetary policy. But the business seems to be executing right and they seem to be investing in the right places. It's good that they're generating cash. Now they're not burning cash. They may need to raise, who knows, but obviously when you're generating cash, it blunts the acuteness of your need to raise money. But if your plans for growth exceed the amount of cash that you're generating, maybe you do have to go to the markets to get some more cash. And that may involve dilution. But other than that, and obviously Bitcoin's price will be very impactful still on Iris Energy. It is a Bitcoin miner after all. So with all these considerations in place, I think that it's probably going to be a rough road, but I think that it's put itself in a promising position. Eventually, we'll get over the short term hurdles that we're experiencing in the market. A lot of what we've been building, this company has been building for years, will reach full use, full utilization, and we'll see that trickle down into their net income as well. With that being said, let's go to questions very quickly. As always, should we strengthen the dollar or weaken it after this report? Well, I should say this. So this is very important. Even though the US, so obviously when you say strengthen the dollar, What you have to ask next is against what? The dollar is likely to strengthen against most major currencies in the world because other economies aren't doing as well as the United States. So Europe, Australia, China, these major economies aren't doing as well as the United States and will likely decrease interest rates. With that, the strength of their currency will fall if the US is maintaining the interest rates where they are. And therefore, that will that will not so you know all else being equal the the us dollar becoming stronger is not good for risk assets and us equities because for two reasons number one they earn money overseas and translating it to us dollars becomes you know they translate the less us dollars also international investors it's harder for them to buy u.s equities in u.s dollars So the purchasing power decreases. That being said, decreasing interest rates in other economies has other impacts, which is increasing liquidity in other economies. And for assets like, for example, crypto, these are global assets. So investors globally can invest in them and therefore You have different influences, oftentimes moving in different directions. And they may sort of offset or one may overpower the other in terms of the impact they have on the price of assets. So did Powell say that they no longer try to reach the two percent inflation target? I don't think so. I think that's still the target, even if he he may imply it, but he won't say it outright. That's the mandate that they have. Yeah, who knows? Maybe it becomes brother power later. Could you please provide insight? It's possible that Bitcoin goes to in the eighties and possible that goes into the seventies. Who knows? But that's not the base case for me. We may get a pullback in the next week. Just so I'm clear, we may get a pullback in the next week as the market digests this new inflation data. But I think that pullback will probably not be short-lived. As I mentioned, I think the upcoming readings will be bullish for the market. And if you remember my mental model that I went over earlier, These dips, I think, in the current regime that we are in are buying opportunities. I haven't looked at that NNE. Nope. Sorry, not going back into HIMSS. I've said before that it's, I mean, I'm not comfortable with their marketing, so I'm not going back into HIMSS. trading meme coins I've talked about that check out my x platform slam brother thanks for doing this joining from singapore hey nice to see you from singapore slam what I can do believe that yeah I mean technical analysis can provide some uh value sometimes if you're looking at the right things but just you know looking at patterns and making conclusions based off them is and you should also weight different factors like Okay, maybe technical analysis isn't, you don't assign it a zero percent rate, a weight, but you shouldn't be assigning it, you know, a fifty percent weight. Maybe it's a five percent weight in your decision or a ten percent weight or twenty percent weight even. But some people are making investment decisions based on technical analysis, and I don't think that's necessarily a good A good approach. Correct. Rashad is mentioning that we're not really day traders. We are long-term investors. I do think FSD is feasible and we'll get a lot more confirmation of that later this year, inshallah, when the Robotaxi is started in Austin in June, inshallah. Leave a like if you enjoyed this live. Become a PIF member if you aren't already. Until next time, make sure to take care of yourself. Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you all.